Winning hearts to win the war ~ DEFCON 3

Major operations to control Afghanistan have ended, and they have been a success. At least that’s what David Miliband, the head of British diplomacy, said. But you know, journalist have learned to take carefully politicians’ words when they talk about “the end of major operations”.

The ongoing offensive in Helmand province tries to clean the Taliban strongholds from the cities and secure them ahead next month’s Presidential polls. It’s a mirror-shaped operation of the battle of Fallujah, in Iraq, who led the resistance out of the city. And like then, casualties have rocketed to a record-hit since 2001 invasion.

The truth is that in Helmand combats are still taking place between NATO forces and the Taliban. However, in Badghis, a remote province close to the Iranian border, a truce has been reached with the help of the region’s elders. It’s a strategy that Gen. McChrystal wants to spread to other provinces.

Let’s hope that the outcome is not the same as in Badghis. There, only hours after the truce was signed, Afghan police forces went under fire from the Taliban. Badghis province had been a quiet place until last year, when the Taliban surge increased significantly. The Spaniards are about to boost their deployed force with an extra 450 boots -almost a 50% more of what they have there now-, but it is only a temporary solution while the elections are taking place next August 20.

There will be needed more commitment than that if NATO forces are to control, at least, the urban areas of the country -which even now the West struggles to accomplish. And not only more boots in the ground, but also more gear. Britain knows the pain of the lack of choppers.

Sometimes, however, the lack of gear is beneficial for the troops. As Danger Room reports, the lack of phones and Internet in an isolated US military outpost makes the soldiers stay more focused in their job, which is translated into less casualties and more interaction with the locals. And in fact, that’s the definitive way to win this war: by gaining the local hearts.

Both sides are engaged in a war behind the scenes aimed to gain people’s trust. The Americans announced today that in a shift in their policies, they won’t be publishing anymore the number of insurgents and Taliban they kill in their attacks. According to Rear Adm. Gregory Smith, it only contributes to “extend the time it takes to bring about an end to the insurgency”.

On the other side, Al Jazeera reported today on a book laying a code of conduct for Taliban fighters written possibly by Mullah Omar. Apart from a determination to centralise the power in just one commander -himself-, Omar draws some ethic lines for all Taliban commanders in order to gain popularity, or at least not lose it, among civilians.

The book includes guidelines on suicide bombers’ attacks, keeping them from being used against “lower and useless targets” and ordering commanders to put an extra effort “to avoid civilian casualties”. Those directions include also how to treat the prisoners, stating that “whenever any official, soldier, contractor or worker of the slave government is captured, these prisoners cannot be attacked or harmed” and banning any ransom payment.

But the clear aim of the book comes out to light when it describes the way a mujahideen must behave:

“The mujahideen have to behave well and show proper treatment to the nation, in order to bring the hearts of civilian Muslims closer to them. The mujahideen must avoid discrimination based on tribal roots, language or geographic background.”

Those are practically the same words that were in a recent release from NATO alliance, aiming to decrease the number of civilian casualties in order to win the heart of the people.

Yet NATO attacks left more civilian casualties last year than the Taliban, and here is where the war is being lost by the West. Late changes from Gen. McChrystal and the Pentagon aimed to shift that trend and probably, of the success of that strategy shift -already applied in Iraq- depends the future of this war.