The Israeli recklessness

Two Israeli attacks on Syria in less than 48 hours mean, at least unofficially, the entrance of the West in the Arab conflict. Israeli incursions have not only complicated a conflict already very convulsed. And as it happens with everything the Jewish state does, the consequences of these actions will resound beyond its borders.

The attacks came from outside Syrian airspace. According to both Reuters and AP, Israeli aircrafts entered Lebanon from the south and from within Lebanese territory, they released their weapons.

This fact highlights the impunity of Israel in the region. It's not the first time that Israel targets military objectives beyond its borders invading foreign airspace, nor the first time it does it with Syria. It is not even the first time that Syria is the target since the beginning of its bloody civil war.

Both Turkey and the Arab League have strongly condemned the attack. On the other hand, the vulnerability of Hezbollah and Syria has been highlighted. Again. Little or nothing can they do against the technological superiority of Israel.

Tel Aviv in the meantime neither confirms nor denies the news. All the information on the press was leaked through anonymous sources, faceless informants and unidentified spokespersons. The official stance is to deny the attack and to insist that there is no interest in entering the Syrian conflict.

That last part may be true. Assad, although an uncomfortable neighbor, is not a belligerent one. And without doubt, the government of Bashar al-Assad is better than some of the alternatives among the rebels, such as al-Nusra’s Islamists, who have been linked to al-Qaeda.

Photo: IAF

No one in Tel Aviv wants another Islamist government in the region after the experience with Egypt. In contrast, Syria's Assad is a controllable and controlled danger. The Syrian government has limited itself to be an intermediary between Iran and Hezbollah. And this is probably what has led to these attacks.

In fact, most analysts agree in stating that this attack is against Iran and Hezbollah and not against Syria. The targets of the bombs would have been, again according to anonymous sources, shipments of Iran-made Fateh-110 missiles to the Lebanese militia.

Israel's red lines in this case are different to those for Obama. The United States does not want to get involved in Syria and puts the limit in the use of chemical weapons, but deliberately does not specify how or how much is too much.

For Israel, the red line is the transfer of advanced military equipment to Hezbollah, and it does not mind getting into Syria as it has done for years. In Wired, Noah Shachtman speculates that the danger comes not from the type of missiles held by the Lebanese militia, but their numbers.

Currently Israel is able to defend themselves from the threats in possession of Hamas with the Iron Dome missile defense system. For the Fateh-110 Israel has another system, the Arrow-2, but unlike the Iron Dome, it has not been tested in combat.

This is aggravated by the fact that these systems are not foolproof and all they can achieve is minimizing the impacts. They will never be able to avoid them altogether, that’s something completely out of reach.

If Israel allows arming Hezbollah with substantial amounts of Fateh-110 (which can also carry chemical weapons), this further reduces interception rates. And it is enough for one of the missiles to impact in an Israeli city to destabilize the whole region.

That may be the main reason for Israel to get into the conflict. However, it is an extremely selfish reason and their actions have consequences for more people than those in the Jewish state.

To begin with, the Assad regime has now the perfect excuse to demonize the rebels. According to a spokesman of the regime, the rebels are "friends of Israel" and the attack was made in a coordinated manner.

The UN has helped to this extent, albeit involuntarily, by saying through Carla del Ponte that chemicals attacks recently detected in Syria may actually have been the work of rebel militias. They later announced in a separate statement that there are no definitive conclusions yet.

Beyond Syria’s and Israel’s borders, these attacks push the West into a war that it doesn’t want. According to Robert Fisk, if there is no condemnation of the bombing means the de facto U.S. and European support for Israel's actions.

Obviously Washington is not going to condemn the attacks. In fact Obama has already said that Israel has the right to defend itself, without specifying further. Surely his government is upset that Netanyahu did not inform in advance of the incursions, but that will not change its official position.

The Israeli attack has also polarized the Arab public. Except for Jordan, no other country in the area wants Europe and America to send aid in the form of weapons and military equipment to the rebels. Let alone to have a Western military intervention in Syria.

On the other side of the world, the recent visit of Israeli Prime Minister to China has been the perfect excuse for the Asian giant to begin the rehearsal of his role as a global superpower. Meanwhile, the two former superpowers -the United States and Russia- continue to disagree in almost everything.

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Syria and the diplomacy game

Syria has become a broken toy no one wants to get their hands on. Truth be told, the situation has escalated and it is way more complicated now. What used to be black or white has now dozens of shades of gray in between. The Balkanization of the conflict has derived in a war with dozens of splinter cells with targets too different between themselves.

There is no more a homogeneous opposition. Some groups want to oust Assad. Others just want to defend their neighborhoods. The Kurds are happy taking care of their own business watching the rest killing themselves. And then there are the ones looking for a Yihad. For those ones, the -theoretically- socialist and laic regime of Assad is as good as a target as anything else.

That is why steps are given carefully. Slow and shy attempts on all sides. Take for example Russia, who started championing Assad. Now they are rather looking for a golden retirement for him and his family in a third country.

We have as well the Arab states of the Gulf. They are between a rock and a hard place. On one hand they would love nothing more than getting rid of Iran’s friend in the region. On the other hand, they are frightened a revolution like that could caught them at home.

In a similar place is Israel, whose is irritated by Assad but fears who could come after him. They have the bad experience of Egypt, where Mubarak was a manageable leader that didn’t give them too many problems. Things have changed with Morsi, if only on the public arena.

Photo: Facebook group

The last one to risk a move has been the USA, announcing they will help directly the Syrian opposition. With a clear red line: no weapons or training. Just medicines and food to avoid future problems.

The Americans don’t want another Afghanistan or Libya. In the former they helped the Taliban; in the later they helped the Gadaffi opposition. Both groups turned their backs on America, one of them in a war still going on, the other one with the attack on Bengazhi’s embassy and Mali.

The Syrian opposition however thinks that all that about food and medicines is good intentions but nothing more. A video uploaded to Facebook shows how much they esteem the help provided by Washington.

However, the lack of a pipeline of weapons from the West isn’t stopping Syrians of getting armed. Recently some images of what looks like Chinese surface-to-air missiles appeared online. How they got there is a mystery. But even without sponsors, Syrians have demonstrated a high dose of imagination. One of them is a Playstation-controlled tank they created out of scrap pieces. That is bringing the game of Libya to a whole new level.

France and the UK have been trying to solve that. They are the top supporters of lifting an EU-embargo on Syria. They are even considering going freelance and arm the rebels themselves, even if that means defying the European Union.

Several Gulf states, however, keep funding and arming rebel groups. Qatar and Saudi Arabia are among them. This, again, could turn counterproductive in the end for the Americans. Without a direct control on the arms pipeline, those weapons could end up in the hands of groups that aren’t so worrying for those Muslim states, like al-Nusra. And this would be the same problem all over again, only that way closer to strategic allies like Israel.

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Calling wolf (again)

Last week we woke up to the unsettling news of Al Assad cooking sarin-filled ammunitions. It is not that we didn’t know that Syria has chemical weapons. We knew it. But some intelligence reports suggest now that the regime of Assad may be loading them on the delivery recipients.

Immediately, the US stated that using chemical weapons would be a “red line” that if crossed would carry “consequences”. It is easy to imagine those consequences in the form of a Libya-style intervention.

If the reports are true it would show significant weakness for the Assad regime. That shouldn’t come as a surprise. The rebels are closing the gap with Damascus' airport and fighting for its control, with flights having to be cancelled for hours at some points in the past few weeks. For now, the airport is open but the road to the city is a battlezone.

The recent blackout of the Internet seemed also like a desperate measure by the Syrian government to cut the leaking of videos and information from within Syria. Mixing the sarin and loading them onto the delivery recipients would be the prelude of another desperate measure. Because if done, it all becomes way more complicated.

Photo: TRDefence

While separate on their active ingredients, it is somewhat stable and relatively easy to store. But once mixed, and considering the decades-old technology employed by Syria, it must be used immediately or there would be risks of leaks and deterioration.

It is also more difficult to store, due to the sarin being extremely corrosive. Add to that the degradation of the quality of the gas. In fact, to avoid all these problems, Iraqi soldiers -who used the same tech when attacking the Kurds in the 80’s- mixed the gas on the spot just before firing the ammunitions or loading them onto the bombs.

However, some people see on these reports more of a remake of the Iraq invasion than a real threat. Calling wolf on weapons of mass destruction to fuel their own interest -whatever they could be. And it is not only the Russians, who have a clear conflict of interest with Syria, but also activists among the rebel ranks.

Those rebels, or at least some of them, are what several analysts have said we should be worried about. They are talking of a proper nightmare scenario. If the Assad government fails, all those chemical weapons that do really exist could end up in the hands of the rebel groups, some of them linked to al-Qaeda. And those rebels have already stated that they want those weapons, while their methods aren’t always that different from what they say to be fighting.

This isn’t a new problem. The US came up with a solution to a similar problem in Pakistan, setting a back-up plan in case the government failed to secure the nuclear stockpile of the country. However, Syria is not Pakistan. There are no dollars to put into Assad’s account to shield the sites storing the weapons -for now, Assad just keeps moving them around- and it is unlikely Russia would see with good eyes an intervention on Syrian soil by American soldiers -that was the plan B in Pakistan. 

Instead, the Americans are hoping to train Syrian rebels to secure and handle those weapons. But that plan can only work if those rebels arrive before al-Qaeda linked groups to the sites and if Assad’s government cooperates to some degree. Two very big if’s in a very volatile environment.

Either that or call the Israelis in.

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Israel's open hand to the Palestinians

Photo: Baz Ratner/Reuters

Netanyahu promised consequences if the UN voted in favor of the Palestinian statehood bid. That would have been an optimistic view. In a conflict fuelled by retaliations -who shot first?- there was to expect some sort of payback.

However, Western democracies probably didn’t expect this degree of bitterness. It is a diplomatic Cast Lead operation against the Palestinian Authority and the West Bank.

The Palestinians felt the hand that the Israelis tend in peace to them, as the Israeli ambassador to the UN said last week in New York. Only that it was more of a fist than an open hand. Immediately after the UN vote, Israel announced that it would confiscate the tax revenues it collects on behalf of the PA.

We are not talking about some spare change; it is $120m that pay mostly Palestinian civil servants’ salaries. That money will go to pay a debt of around $200m that the PA had with the Israeli electrical company, who provides energy needs for the West Bank.

An Israeli official told the Guardian the move came now in response to the UN bid and it could be repeated next month. "A lot depends on what the Palestinians do or don't do," he said.

But that is not all of it. Israel announced as well the construction of 3000 new homes in the West Bank, including in East Jerusalem. The plan projects the building of a new corridor of homes in the E-1 sector, connecting north-east and south-east Jerusalem.

This is a red line even for Washington and Tel Aviv. There is no way back from there. It erases any possible two-state solution. It effectively surrounds and disconnects East Jerusalem from any possible Palestinian state.

This decision infuriated the American and European governments, who criticized harshly the move. Some even recalled their ambassadors, like in the case of France, Britain, Spain, Denmark and Sweden.

Despite this, Netanyahu is focused on keeping on track with this plan. Not only that, but he has also defrosted a plan to build an extra 1700 homes in Ramat Shlomo, beyond the Green Line, that was suspended in 2010. Additionally, Israel has renewed patrols to identify and demolish Arab houses illegally built in East Jerusalem.

Israel has gotten used to play hard and being isolated internationally. It is not the first time the US criticizes an Israeli decision. Neither is it the first time European countries recall ambassadors.

But somehow, Netanyahu has been always able to pull some advantage out of it. It is part of Netanyahu's twisted idea of a negotiation. Back in 2010, Obama offered him 20 fifth generation F-35 jets in exchange for a 90-day moratorium on the construction of new homes. If this happens again, it wouldn’t be the first time someone sees bribing or blackmailing on it.

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What after Palestine-194?

Jehad’s birthday is on the 30^th of November. As a Palestinian living in the UK, the news of Palestine being recognized as a state arrived from America just on time to celebrate his birthday. At that moment, the UN was voting in favor of granting Palestine recognition as a non-member state and a seat as an observer state at the UN.

His fellow nationals back across the West Bank and Gaza were as well celebrating. It is indeed a huge step forward for the Palestinians towards a two state solution and an upgrade to their situation, at least internationally.

Photo: AP/Seth Wenig

Upgrades, however, are as good as the originals they are based on and this one is not an exception. If the base is not good enough, the upgrade probably will fall on the short side. The change of status may be a small victory but the real repercussions are few and not all of them satisfactory for the Palestinians.

When Palestinians sobered up from the UN vote, Israeli settlers were still building, the checkpoints were still there, the wall was still present and the blockade in Gaza was still in effect. Even back at the UN, the Palestinians’ seat will remain at the same place where it has been since 1974, besides the Holy See’s.

The benefits are widely diplomatic more than on-the-ground results and they will take time to become real. For starters, this would give the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) more weight in their negotiations with Israel.

The most talked about benefit is the possibility for the PLO to apply for access to the InternationalCriminal Court (ICC) and prosecute Israeli citizens. However, even this move could turn into a double edged sword because it would allow as well Israel to prosecute Hamas militants after a rocket attack kills Israeli civilians.

Furthermore, the Palestinians don’t need to use the ICC. Several processes open in European countries -specially in the UK and Spain- have proven effective bringing Israeli leaders to a courtroom or, at least, limiting their travel freedom.

Photo: Anna Day/Instagram 

The one effect this UN bid has gotten is clearly propagandistic. Fatah is the biggest winner and they needed it. Hamas was growing in popularity not only in Gaza but also in the West Bank and this gives the PLO some air to breathe. As journalist Mikel Ayestarán commented from Ramallah, in the celebrations on the street you could see “more Yellow (PLO) flags than Palestinian flags”.

On the other hand, the vote shows how Israel has gotten yet even more isolated internationally. 138 countries voted in favor of the Palestinians for only nine against. 41 abstained.

Out of the nine that voted against, four were Pacific island micro-states; the rest being one European (Czech Republic), three American (the US, Canada and Panama) and, obviously, Israel. Among the European countries, after being unable to agree on a common position, Germany, Netherlands and the UK abstained while France, Spain, Ireland and Italy voted yes.

But this international isolation is something Israel is used to. They actually expected it and the vote maybe comes just as the realization that they have “lost Europe”. The only country whose swift would actually mean something for Israel would be the US, and they have a strong ally in there.

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Friendly fire 07/12/09

- The risks of citizen and amateur journalists in war areas.

- Airbus A400M to take off. Finally.

- India concerned over China, Pakistan military "nexus".

- Israel's pro-settlement soldiers worry leaders.

- So, where the hell is bin Laden?


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1983

 
Thanks to the blog Checkpoint Jerusalem, this week I discovered the short movie “1983”. The plot goes around what would happen if before getting into a movie you should pass a security check as those from Ben Gurion international airport. When the reporter Dion Nissenbaum asked the director why the title was “1983”, he answered: “What comes after 1983?” The short movie’s action itself, I’m sure it will be familiar to anyone who has gone through one of these random checkpoints.

Because, let’s face it, Ben Gurion controls are desperating. I remember the case of an old Russian Jew who left Israel swearing to me he will never come back again via the airport. I know as well cases of people being interrogated for hours -and consequently, losing their flights- and going through latex-gloved searches naked in separated rooms. It’s so bad that in the hotels they recommend you to give yourself a reasonable margin of hours in the airport before the flight is scheduled.

For journalists it is even worse. In my last visit to Ben Gurion airport, a French freelance photographer who was about five spaces behind me got suddenly surrounded by five security guards that started to ask him every kind of questions. His Press-labeled jacket and his cameras didn’t help him to pass unnoticed.

It’s obvious that journalists are screened harder because of our job. And trying to get unnoticed not always works. Searches for residual explosives in the clothes or the questions about if we know any Palestinian or we have travelled to other countries in the region are common. That’s why it’s not good to have your Nablus, Jenin or Ramallah sources in your agenda or your phone. Also, the trip from the security check to the plane is usually made with an -unwanted- escort.

Luckily, sometimes it gives you the chance to have a good time.

Once, in the baggage control check, my cover as tourist got blast. The beautiful girl examining my backpack didn’t believe me when she saw my cameras, lenses, laptop and all kind of notebooks with notes. Instantly she made me take all my things out of the backpack and the suitcase. All of it. Even what was on my clothes' pockets ended over the table.

When she reached the lateral pocket of my backpack, and started to put everything over the table, the fun started. Several condoms, almost a full pack -I hadn’t time to use as many as I wanted-, started to come out. As they were coming out, the girl’s face was turning more and more red and she was saying lower and lower her shameful “I’m sorries”. Of course, all that was provoking a more and more wider joker smile on me. With more shame on her side than on mine, the screening ended up much sooner than expected, putting as fast as she could everything back in my suitcase.

I was lucky, but it’s not always like that. The official reason for the screenings is that it is for our own security. Like to avoid any bad guy putting a tic-tac bomb inside the souvenir we got from Hebron or Bethlehem. But all the process is less than charming. And after a few similar experiences, you start to question yourself if it ever works.

In fact, as Dion Nissenbaum tells, is difficult to believe Ben Gurion controls are for security reasons only. You start to think if they are not to harass the travelers -especially Arabs or journalists, among others. Or even worse; just a way to gather intelligence.

1983 from Modi on Vimeo.

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Report: Situation in Lebanon getting worse

Hezbollah could be rearming for a future conflict with Israel, according to The Observer and Haaretz. The news came in just after Israel seized a cargo ship loaded with rockets and missiles, supposedly for the Shiite Lebanese militia.

“Of course we are rearming”, said in condition of anonymity a Hezbollah official to the Londoner newspaper. “We have more rockets and missiles than [we had] in 2006”, he adds. According to this same source, the Lebanese guerrilla would be expecting an attack from the south soon, if not this winter in the spring, when the ground would be hard enough to maintain the weight of the Israeli tanks. And facts are that indeed, the IDF has been moving around and concentrating forces in the north of the country.

But for now, the main target for Israel is still Iran. However, that doesn’t take Lebanon out of the table. Some analyst, suggest that it even make it more likely to be attacked. Initial intelligence reports pointed out that any successful operation in Iran should be started with an attack on Hezbollah, to diminish their ability to disrupt normal life in Israel northern territories. Now with the Shiite militiamen in the concentration government, that threat is seen in Israel as even greater.

Last war in Lebanon was in 2006, when Hezbollah fighters infiltrated in Israel and kidnapped two Jewish soldiers and the IDF counterattacked heavily. After that, the FINUL, an interim international force, was deployed in the area. But the FINUL has been recently eroded from the inside, with arguments between their members about the leadership of the mission. Spain wants to get the lead in 2010 -as agreed- but Italy, currently in charge of the mission, doesn’t seem to be keen to do so after Israel asked them to keep it.

If anything new starts, the FINUL could be between two fires and without a clear leadership in the spring. Perfect time for an attack or a provocation from any of the parts involved.

More in here.




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Down with the wall!

Today marks the 20th anniversary of the fall of the wall in Berlin. The end of the “Mauer” was also the end of an era and reshaped not only Berlin and Germany but all Europe.

Today as well in Palestine, around 300 demonstrators gathered in the town of Ni’lin to protest against a present wall, the one built in the West Bank by Israel allegedly to protect themselves against terrorist attacks. The demonstrators managed to topple one of the eight meters high concrete portions of the wall. Here is the video.




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And here it goes again...

Once again, a ship loaded of guns seized by Israel is on the frontpage. But this time the Jewish country is not accusing Iran of being the end of the trail, but the beginning. Israeli commandos seized yesterday a freighter off the coast of Ciprus, in international waters. The cargo ship was loaded with small guns and rockets that Israeli authorities say were destined to Hezbollah. Of course, immediately the domino effect invaded the Middle East.

Israel accused Hezbollah of being the final destination of the cargo. Hezbollah denied it. Israel accuses Iran of being the ones who sent it -and just in case, accuses too Syria of being the receptors. Both denied it. Israeli PM, Binyamin Netanyahu, accuses Iran of crimes of war -how lightly Israel accuses others of that and how hard is to get them to recognize their own crimes- and sees the guns as a new wild card against Tehran. The ayatollahs tell Bibi to fuck off and get a life. And here it goes again.

In fact, many Arab commentators have said that what Israel is doing is actually just a diversion to distract the attention from the Goldstone report. But this comes as well at the same time that Hamas test fires a rocket capable of hitting Tel Aviv. The rockets are, according to Israel, a technology transfer from Iran and Syria. And there, there it goes yet again.

Truth is that Israel is not a saint, but neither are Iran nor Syria. And the most frightening of all is that all of that -Goldstone report, arms smuggling- might be true.

Rockets seized by Israel
Photo: Tsafrir Abayov/AP


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Friendly fire 30/10/09

- Iraq wants to get into the nuclear club. Yeah, that’s right. Not Iran this time, Iraq.

- Micheletti and Zelaya achieve an agreement for an exit to Honduras coup.

- The EU gets an only strong voice against climate change. Well, sorta.

- Israeli envoy to the UN says that the Human Rights council has give its back to the same values it defends. I think it’s something about Goldstone report, but not in the same way as everyone else aknowledges it.

- Medvedev opposes to the rehabilitation of uncle Joe. Traitor! He should be executed…



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The blockade strategy

When the other day the IDF uploaded in its twitter account this unusual tweet it surprised me. The entrance of more than a hundred trucks in a day PLUS fuel is not that common. Then, the office of Lieberman posted it again. In total, three similar posts in less than two days.

Taking into account the usual cheapness of the Israelis when letting trucks crossing Erez, sending 300 in less than two days -more than double the usual- awoke something in me. There had to be something going on. That led me into the BBC, who was informing about the permission from Israeli authorities to get 130,000 tones of cement into Gaza. That was even weirdest. Was the vegetative Ariel Sharon dictating the politics in Tel Aviv now? Was Israel going to lift the shoe off the Palestinians?

Not at all. Checkpoint Jerusalem blog had the answer. It’s not the product of an ethylic intoxication of some Israeli official but an operation that has the beneplacit of Israel: the reconstruction of Erez crossing.

Of course, Israel is in this adventure with Hamas only because it benefits them too. The blockade itself doesn’t seem to disappear anytime soon. Actually, quite the contrary. Israel is preparing the closing of the main fuel terminal that supplies Gaza. Million and a half Palestinians depend on that plant for everything, from gas for cooking to fuel for the only power plant in the strip.

The plans of Israel are to habilitate a new plant in Kerem Shalom, but the new installations won’t be finish any time soon and according to human rights groups, it lacks the capacity to supply all the Gazan population. Not exactly the same for Israel, where not only is thought the new plant is more than enough but also some are arguing that the blockade should be tightened because is not enough:

Recently, an Israeli government official was boasting that military surveillance showed that Gaza markets were full and teeming with goods. He pointed it out to suggest that Israeli restrictions were not harming Gaza.

Of course, he deftly neglected to mention that most of the goods found in Gaza markets these days don't come from Israel. They come through the dangerous network of illegal smuggling tunnels to Egypt...

The fact of the people in Gaza having a shortage of everything -and the few they have is thanks to the tunnels- is already worrying. People saying the blockade should be increased, is more than worrying. But what I definitely don’t understand is how the hell that insufficiency to “harm Gaza” fits into Israeli speeches about the blockade being aimed against Hamas and not the general Palestinian population.



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Obama superstar

Like if anything else was necessary to elevate Obama to the heavens, now he has been awarded with the Nobel Peace Prize. The coronation of his Highness Obama has had more to do with the canonization of a (laic) saint than with the recognition to his achievements. That’s why everybody is asking why. And why now.

Because let’s face it. Obama may have promised a new world, but little of that has been unveiled for now. The White House has done small gestures to break with their precedent. It has been, for example, the first time the US has condemned a coup de état made by the right and the army in Latin America. Also, tortures and Guantanamo issues are slowly getting better. But as for the rest, all we have are just promises. The general opinion is that the committee in Oslo has decided it betting for his future achievements. But how easy will he get it?

Obama has promised a cut in the nukes, and this is probably the easiest task of all. The Russians are willing to do it, especially because they have already problems to maintain their current stock. But a hypothetical reduction of the two superpowers arsenals wouldn’t have an immediate effect on the world’s stability, quite the contrary: everything would be the same, with more countries like China, closer to equalize the power of Russia and the USA.

The American president has also promised too a new era for the Middle East, but so far the achievements are minimum. His speeches were great, no doubt to that. But far from freezing the settlement construction in the West Bank, he might have to counter a peak in the hostilities. The increasing clashes in Jerusalem plus the outrage after PA’s decision to postpone the vote on Goldstone report -suspectedly in exchange for a permit to Wattaniya mobile operator to start in business- have made the situation way worse than what it was in 2008. Some Israeli media are even predicting a new Intifada.

But the biggest problem for Obama will be Afghanistan. Leaving already Iraq, the now known as the “Obama war” will take yet too much blood and sweat from the ISFOR to develop results. And that outcome will be most likely what will measure Obama’s performance in office back in History. But for now, he has nothing.

His speech writer, however, should have been awarded with the Literature Nobel Prize.

Barack Obama
Photo: Jonas Karlsson

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Friendly fire 05/10/09

- Polling round: The Yes wins in Ireland. The Socialist Party wins in Greece. And Rio defeats Chicago, Madrid and Tokio in the race for the Olympics.

- Should Roman Polanski be above the law?

- While waiting for the 2009 Nobel Prizes, here are 2009 Ig Nobel Prizes.

- Seriously, what's wrong with Asia? Earthquakes, floods, tsunamis...

- Israel, in Honduras too? Unlikely.


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Exposed

The discovery of a secret Iranian centrifuge facility near Qom has been a major blast in International politics during the past week. It surely surprised Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who didn't expect that question coming out in an interview with Time Magazine -the expression on his face when listening to it (Ahmadinejad had no need of translators to understand that) says it all.

But also shocked the world. For months, international community focused in the possibility that Iran could low-enrich enough amount of uranium and then kick out the IAEA inspectors and upgrade it to a bomb level. This however, changes that scenario.

Not for all, has to be said. Some, like Nathan Hodge from Danger Room, are delighted now getting some weight off their chest by saying the old “I told you so”. They predicted this long time ago. As he noted, if the Iranians are to “build a bomb, they will do it someplace else. Like Qom”. The new facility (still far from operative) can be used as well as a backup for the existing in Natanz or as a training facility -or viceversa.

But back to the present scenario, every day seems more likely an attack on Iran by the end of the year. Israel has stated clearly in the past -last time was today- his intentions to bomb any threat coming from the Ayatollahs, and has been preparing the road for itself and the world for when it happens. But Israel pretensions have encountered always Washington’s opposition.

Until now. It’s believed that the revelation of the plan by Iran to the IAEA in a vague letter was made because the secrecy of the plant had been compromised. That came from the American, British and French secret services. Immediately, in the G20 summit Obama said that although their diplomacy offer remained on the table, none other options had been ruled out. That, although unlikely, includes the military option.

With the US now more inclined to support Israel, the threat for Iran is clearer. However, if there is a major swift in here is concerning Russia. China still is reluctant to impose more severe sanctions to the Persians. The Russians, however, after knowing of the secret facility -and after the withdraw of the American missile shield in Europe-, have slowly joined the European countries and America on their demands on Iran. And having the Russians on Israel’s side is a huge improvement for the Jews.

The major concern for Israel has never been America’s approval or strategic geo-political complicated outputs. It’s been internal problems, their own pilots’ safety and logistical problems. Their worry for the sold of Russian S-300 surface-to-air missiles to the Persian state -which could diminish their chances in an air attack- has even surrounded the mystery of the Arctic Sea.

Later on that incident, Binyamin Netanyahu, Israel’s Prime Minister, made a secret trip to Russia. No-one knows yet what Bibi did in Moscow. The Israeli media didn’t even know about the trip until a week after; not even the embassy staff in Russian capital knew about it. But it’s more than likely that it had to do with the S-300 missiles.

Now, providing Russia opposes too to Iran and joins the group of four (USA, UK, France and Germany) -unlikely- and Iran finally doesn’t get the weapons -more likely and enough for Israel-; the US approves the operation; and the green light from Saudi Arabia; it will clear the road for Israel.

Iran’s only option now is stop playing and coming clear -some steps made- or make a demonstration of force. Obviously, they’re going for the latter, even unintentionally.

For the past three days, the Revolutionary Guards have tested their arsenal of short, medium and long range missiles, including the Shahab-3, with a 2,000km range and capable to hit Israel. Some of the tests were delivered on Sunday, coinciding with the Jewish holiday of the Yom Kippur. Well, at least you cannot say Iranians aren’t concerned about Israelis. If Yom Kippur is all about suffering, they got a lot of people suffering of stress that day. Also in Europe.

And all that, just ahead of tomorrow's talks.

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
Photo: Reuters


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The most moral army in the world (re-loaded)

Israeli Defense Forces’ Chief of Staff, Gabi Ashkenazi, said today that the IDF was one of the most moral armies in the world, and more specifically, among the armies in the region. This response comes after the release of Goldstone’s UN report on alleged crimes of war in operation Cast Lead last winter. Quoted from Haaretz (emphasis mine):

"But I want to say more than this," he added. "Before all the reports, immediately after the end of the operation, we investigated ourselves. Since then and up until now, we have held a process of investigation, including appeals from Palestinians."

He went on to say that from an ethical point of view, the IDF was a "light among nations."

Where have I listen this before? Oh, I remember now. Here.

I won’t repeat myself writing again the same...

IDF Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi; Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak.
Photo: AP

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Friendly fire 18/09/09

- Top destination for spies.

- Top destination for arms dealers.

- Top destination for IAEA inspectors.

- Future top destination for IAEA inspectors.

- Winter top destination for Israeli jets. Unexpected guests not welcomed.



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Israel against the world

Finally the UN has released his report on the alleged war crimes that Israel may have incurred during Operation Cast Lead. The report states that Israel, among other charges, “terrorized” the population of Gaza and reckons the role played by the Israeli blockade of the strip before the war to trigger Hamas into rocketing Israel. It also recognizes that Hamas rockets over civilian populated areas might be considered as well as war crimes.

However, the Jewish country criticized the report even before it came into the light and the fact of it blaming both sides -Hamas too- of war crimes in Gaza is not changing that. Quite the contrary, Israel is taking the 575 pages report as a declaration of war. From the UN? And after bombing UN compounds and killing UN workers in Lebanon and Gaza? Really?

Truth is that some indicators say Israeli diplomats can be scared. There is obviously the real danger of having more Doron Almog cases widespreading through the small and cyclic diplomatic-political field in Israel. Or even worse, having to face the ICC.

In Yedioth Aharanoth, commentator Eitan Haber warns that the image of Israel being built with these reports can isolate the Israelis in the international arena. More voices inside Israel want a critical insight on the country’s own armed forces and procedures.

But for now, the response has been the usual. The anti-Semitism trigger is easy to pull for Israeli politicians. Race card is already being played. In Israel Today, Dan Margalit called the report, prepared by a team led by the Jewish, South African jurist Richard Goldstone, classic anti-Semitism. In fact, Goldstone hand actually softened the report, which could have been way worse for Israel.

Once again, it’s the Jews against the world, standing alone. Amira Hass reckons that “like the Serbs of yore, we Israelis continue thinking it's the world that is wrong, and only we who are right”.

Ari Shavit, in Haaretz, even calls for Obama -and other NATO countries like Germany, Britain, France, Spain, the Netherlands, Belgium and Norway- being charged too for the civilian casualties in Afghanistan and Iraq. The tu quoque it’s clearly a way easier argument than being critic with oneself.

Indeed, Israel is moving on in an offensive to try to discredit the report from UN and the UN itself. But they are not the only ones. Just this week, it was known that Human Rights Watch’s senior military analyst Marc Garlasco, who reported the use of white phosphorus by Israel in Gaza, is a private collector of Nazi medals, gear and uniforms. Weather if Garlasco’s hobby is an unusual hobby, a fetish, or a sign of anti-Semitic, Israel prefers to stick with the last option and use it to discredit Garlasco’s work and, by extension, Human Rights Watch’s work.

However, Israel rejections of the report and allegations against Garlasco don’t change the facts. And most importantly, they make more complicated another attack from Israel to a foreign country -let's say... Iran- on the eyes of the world. Does Israel care about that? Well, that's another different question.

Photo: IDF


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Friendly fire 09/09/09

- Israel signs 455 new homes expanding settlements (and controversy) in the West Bank before the freezing...

-...while calling the Arabs “occupiers”.

- Iran offers a new nuke-deal over growing concern for their nuclear plans (meanwhile, NK enters the “final stage” of his program)

- Kidnapped British journo freed in Afghanistan. Local translator and British commando, dead. Debateover releasing information of kidnapped people, heating up.

- Report: Most Gazans killed in Cast Lead war were civilians. Nothing to worry: Israel gains support in Europe, even in the anti-semite Spain.


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Ahmadinejad joins Kim’s circus

Iranians might have learned the lesson from North Korea. No, we don't talk about the NK cargo ship loaded of weapons seized while heading into Iran. We talk about Kim's negotiation skills: mess with the West and then offer them a sweet.

For the past year, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s cabinet has been messing around with the USA and other Western nations about their nuclear program. The official line stated that it was merely for a civilian use. However, the secretism of the program itself, the banning for the IAEA inspectors and the constant improving of Natanz, Shiraz and Isfahan plants suggested something different.

This week, the UN published a report where they open clearly for the first time the door for the possibility of Iran working in a military nuclear program. It’s the same Israel has been saying for years, but when you are Israel and constantly are calling wolf, you might be unheard. The UN, that’s different: they never speak; if they do it, it might be something there.

The IAEA doesn’t state firmly that Iran is working in the weaponization of uranium. It contains a “maybe”, but it is a big “maybe”. That’s enough for Israel, though. The problem is the focus Israel gives to this problem: now links a solution to the settlements in the West Bank to the Iranian nuclear program, as it they have anything in common.

Netanyahu’s madness with this goes further. Bibi compared the Iranian bomb with Auschwitz. Great timing, just when half the world remembers the 60th anniversary of the beginning of WWII.

Obviously Europe is not in the same trail, but the most surprisingly event came from an unexpected actor: Germany. The Holocaust left a deep scar in Germany’s memory that has been trying to wipe out by supporting actively Israel. That’s why many were surprised when Merkel answered to Netanyahu to forget about Iran and freeze the settlements.

Back to the nukes, in Iran this report hasn’t been welcomed. Iranian representative to the IAEA, Ali Asghar Soltanieh, told the AP he found the report "very frustrating," and angrily suggested that U.S. intelligence was working to undermine Iran's credibility. Indeed, tougher sanctions against Iran have been discussed today.

But following North Korea’s steps, here is the sweet: Iran has opened the door for a new “nuclear proposal” and is ready for new nuclear talks.

And that’s how Ahmadinejad joins Kim’s circus.


Ahmadinejad visiting Natanz uranium enrichment facility
Photo: Iranian's President's office.

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