Will it be war in Korea?

Kim Jong-un seems to be finally wearing his father’s shoes. He is even surpassing the boldness of his predecessor. The young one is pushing an escalation of the nuclear diplomacy the North Koreans have mastered for years. However, the dangers come from the lack of knowledge about the new leaders more than from what it may actually happen in the end.

Most of what is happening now has happened before to some degree. The US and South Korea usually have drills in the region. North Korea usually responds harshly to it. And North Korea usually tests every new Prime Minister of the South when they access the office. That is all according to the script.

It wouldn’t even be the first time they exchange fire. As recently as in the past three years, North Korea shelled a South Korean island, which retaliated. The North also -allegedly- sank a South Korean corvette, an act that didn’t have a military response from the South.

There are, however, too many changes to be able to know what will happen next. There are new leaders in both Koreas and in China. The latter, only ally of the North Koreans, recently distanced from them by sanctioning the Kim regime in the UN for their last nuclear test.

But being more isolated is where NK’s strength resides. The Kim dynasty has made of isolation a weapon and it is partially the reason it has survived for so long. A society open to the world, like Iran’s, wouldn’t have been so forgiving of the difficulties it is going through in exchange for nukes.

The speech of threat to the South forms part of that strategy too. Despite the recent lack of food and famine due to a poor harvest, Kim has been able to keep the North’s society united around the leadership by crying wolf in the form of the US and Seoul.

By keeping a constant message of fear, Kim manages to maintain cohesion among North Koreans. This may be more needed than ever before if the rumors of an attempted coup that surfaced on March 13^th are true.

Kim Jong-un, however, has gone a step further with that speech of threat since he accessed the office. He has surpassed his father successfully launching a satellite, test firing another long-range rocket (that failed) and resuming the nuclear program.

These last successful trials (the satellite launch and the nuclear test) may have encouraged the young Kim to impatiently launch threats his country cannot fulfill, like attacking mainland America. The latest moves have been cutting communications with the south, banning access to the joint factory park of Kaesong and pointing the batteries of missiles and artillery to the south.

The truth is no one really wants war. South Korea’s capital, Seoul, would be likely carpeted from the north and little could be done to minimize it. Only during the first hour of conflict, 500,000 rounds of artillery could hit the capital. Conservative estimates suggest a death toll of at least 100,000 casualties only in the city.

North Korea also knows that they would have only 24 hours, maybe 48, until they would be obliterated by the US. The use of nuclear weapons so close to its own population would be suicidal for the north without the intervention of the US. Both Koreas would have too much to lose and little to gain.

Jean Lee, the Pyongyang AP bureau chief and one of the few Western reporters on the ground, said that even amid the latest threats, “Inside Pyongyang, much of the military rhetoric feels like theatrics.”

Business was going as usual and, she noted, “in a telling sign that even the North Koreans don’t expect war, the national airline, Air Koryo, is adding flights to its spring lineup and preparing to host the scores of tourists they expect.” Forcing the south and the US to the negotiation table is what is worth for the North Koreans.

Photo AP

The rest of the actors aren’t any keener to go to war. Japan doesn’t want to be again the target of a nuclear attack and they know they are within the range of North Korean missiles. The US, on the other hand, is fairly safe North Korea can’t hit its territory. But being in withdraw from Iraq and Afghanistan, it doesn’t make sense to get involved in what could be the bloodiest conflict since 1945.

On the other side, China is not interested in a conflict in the area. Focused on the economy, a war in the region would threaten the growth of the country. An influx of refugees inside its north-eastern border is an added problem. Added to that, if North Korea is annihilated, it could mean US troops on its border while Kim’s regime is now a firewall that would be disadvantageous to lose.

All things considered, recent history tells us it is not likely this will escalate into a full blown war. But as Foreign Policy puts it, “for half a century, neither side believed that the benefits of starting a major war outweighed the costs; the worry is that the new North Korean leader might not hold to the same logic, given his youth and inexperience”. Kim Jong-un is not crazy as some draw him, but our best bet is hoping he is not suicidal either.

Read more »

This time yes

On Wednesday North Korea launched successfully -finally- a satellite into space becoming the 11^th nation to achieve it. The date could not be easier to remember (12.12.12) and it is indeed a huge step forward for the Kim regime. 

Several details of the launch tell how the North Koreans have advanced. They finally got the third stage to separate successfully, which had been the major problem for the previous rockets -at least for the ones that survived more than a minute on the air.

They also managed to predict accurately where the boosters and debris of the rocket would fall -confirming the Philippines’ fears. This is more important than what it may suggest at first sight. For starters, that gives more control of the trajectory and destination for long-range rockets and for, namely say, a hypotetic successful future ICBM.

Photo: Kyodo News

But probably the biggest achievement was fooling half of the world -I have to include myself here- with their “delay due to snow” distraction. We knew it would eventually happen, but didn’t expect it that soon. If it was a trick to get the attention of the world, well, it worked.

All the eyes were on them. But when it finally happened only the region neighbors were kinda fast. Whiting minutes, Japan and South Korea had strongly condemned the action and were having a coordinated diplomatic effort.

That doesn’t mean they were expecting it either. The South Koreans said they never believed the delay and were confirming the reports. The Japanese, on the other hand, said they had their missile frigates locked on the rocket since it took off but didn’t press the fire button. Sounds like an excuse to me.

Europe and America were even slower to react. In the case of Europe, only the UK summoned immediately their ambassador. Fair enough, it was night time for them when the launch took place.

For the US, the embarrassment was even worse. It wasn’t until two hours after the rocket was launched that the Americans released a statement saying they had “noted” the launch. Like if it was a disturbance in the Force.

Images from the official DPRK channel confirming the launch -with special TV programs- and statements from the Japanese and South Korean governments were all over Twitter and Facebook. But the Americans had just “noted” it.

Photo: KCNA

Still, it is not like the Americans should be immediately worried. The DPRK may have put an object in space but it is unclear if that object is an operational sat. Also, although space rockets and ICBM share common tech, the later need twice as much work to develop.

To hit the space you just need for the rocket to go upwards. To hit a place half-way through the planet you need a thermal shield for the reentry and accurate trajectory calculations. It will take several years for the DPRK to build a successful ICBM.

Of course, UN sanctions will not help that development and most likely will follow after this attempt. Even China and Russia have criticized the bold move of the North Koreans.

However, no one has said anything on the UN about the mysterious American X-37B, launched intospace one day before the North Korean satellite. It is a USAF space-drone that the US says is purely experimental, while at the same time declining to disclose what those experiments are.

Read more »

"Gangnam style" rockets

The odds are against them. So far, the atmosphere has beaten North Korea rocket launch attempts by 4-0 since 1998. Yet, here they come again with another satellite launch -allowing snow clears up. Persistent they are.

It will be conveniently timed to commemorate the passing away of late Kim Jong-il and to interrupt the southern neighbors’ election. This time, however, the Pentagon is saying that Kim Jong-un could at least improve where his father failed.

That wouldn’t be that difficult. All of the previous attempts by North Korea of putting a satellite in orbit have failed miserably. That’s it, at least, according to the United States. If you want to believe the DPRK official statements, all four previous launches have been a success or received with silence.

That is what happened in 1998 when a rocket dove in the Sea of Japan (a success according to DPRK sources) or 2006 when it blew up soon after takeoff (silence). Kim Jong-il’s last attempt at it in 2009 must be now broadcasting Korean anthems from a deep oceanic orbit, (although the North Koreans insist the satellite is up there in the sky, no one else in the world could see or hear anything). And his son’s baptism of fire ended in failure soon after launch.

One would think that over time the North Koreans would improve on their attempts, but that doesn’t seem to be the case. In fact, Brian Weeden, a former officer with the U.S. Air Force Space Command told Wired’s blog Danger Room that they seem to be getting worse, “going backwards as they keep making changes without truly understanding what went wrong in each case”.

Part of the problem is that the DPRK doesn’t test their rockets. They just announce launches and publicize them as a propaganda weapon. If they were testing the rockets before they actually did it for good, failures could be identified and the tech could be fine-tuned. But also that would likely mean more sanctions.

Photo: Pedro Ugarte/AFP

Whatever the outcome this time, the US has mobilized two or three missile frigates to monitor the launch -and they probably will learn more than the North Koreans from it. If the US is so worried about it is because the tech used to put payloads in orbit is basically the same that is used in Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBM), which would be capable of hitting continental America.

Meanwhile, many other countries are watching the launch. Japan and Korea are worried for the improvement of the DPRK military capabilities. China because it might be an obstacle for peace. And others are worried for a much more real possibility: Philippines and Australia are afraid the launch will fail again and debris will fall over them.

Another country that will be following closely this rocket is Iran. The two countries signed an agreement earlier in 2012 to collaborate in science and technology and Iranian staff has been stationed at North Korean sites for weeks. Both nations share a common interest in the pursue of space and nuclear technology.

Read more »

Friendly fire 19/10/09

Going green to be greener.

Iran to Russia: where are our missiles?

NK boosts its special forces.

In honor to Jordan: no more 23s.

Sarah Palin still on the frontpages. Literally.

Did you like it? Share it

Read more »

Friendly fire 12/10/09

- NK tests five short range missiles and requests everybody to stay outta their Eastern territorial waters until the 20th.

- SK presses the gas for the purchase of new jets.

- The hardest decision for this year (after Obama's Nobel): Economics Nobel. And the one who messed the less was...

- There is no small foe.

- About to getting divorced? How sounds a trip to Malaysia?


Did you like it? Share it

Read more »

Friendly fire 18/09/09

- Top destination for spies.

- Top destination for arms dealers.

- Top destination for IAEA inspectors.

- Future top destination for IAEA inspectors.

- Winter top destination for Israeli jets. Unexpected guests not welcomed.



Did you like it? Share it

Read more »

Friendly fire 09/09/09

- Israel signs 455 new homes expanding settlements (and controversy) in the West Bank before the freezing...

-...while calling the Arabs “occupiers”.

- Iran offers a new nuke-deal over growing concern for their nuclear plans (meanwhile, NK enters the “final stage” of his program)

- Kidnapped British journo freed in Afghanistan. Local translator and British commando, dead. Debateover releasing information of kidnapped people, heating up.

- Report: Most Gazans killed in Cast Lead war were civilians. Nothing to worry: Israel gains support in Europe, even in the anti-semite Spain.


Did you like it? Share it

Read more »

Ahmadinejad joins Kim’s circus

Iranians might have learned the lesson from North Korea. No, we don't talk about the NK cargo ship loaded of weapons seized while heading into Iran. We talk about Kim's negotiation skills: mess with the West and then offer them a sweet.

For the past year, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s cabinet has been messing around with the USA and other Western nations about their nuclear program. The official line stated that it was merely for a civilian use. However, the secretism of the program itself, the banning for the IAEA inspectors and the constant improving of Natanz, Shiraz and Isfahan plants suggested something different.

This week, the UN published a report where they open clearly for the first time the door for the possibility of Iran working in a military nuclear program. It’s the same Israel has been saying for years, but when you are Israel and constantly are calling wolf, you might be unheard. The UN, that’s different: they never speak; if they do it, it might be something there.

The IAEA doesn’t state firmly that Iran is working in the weaponization of uranium. It contains a “maybe”, but it is a big “maybe”. That’s enough for Israel, though. The problem is the focus Israel gives to this problem: now links a solution to the settlements in the West Bank to the Iranian nuclear program, as it they have anything in common.

Netanyahu’s madness with this goes further. Bibi compared the Iranian bomb with Auschwitz. Great timing, just when half the world remembers the 60th anniversary of the beginning of WWII.

Obviously Europe is not in the same trail, but the most surprisingly event came from an unexpected actor: Germany. The Holocaust left a deep scar in Germany’s memory that has been trying to wipe out by supporting actively Israel. That’s why many were surprised when Merkel answered to Netanyahu to forget about Iran and freeze the settlements.

Back to the nukes, in Iran this report hasn’t been welcomed. Iranian representative to the IAEA, Ali Asghar Soltanieh, told the AP he found the report "very frustrating," and angrily suggested that U.S. intelligence was working to undermine Iran's credibility. Indeed, tougher sanctions against Iran have been discussed today.

But following North Korea’s steps, here is the sweet: Iran has opened the door for a new “nuclear proposal” and is ready for new nuclear talks.

And that’s how Ahmadinejad joins Kim’s circus.


Ahmadinejad visiting Natanz uranium enrichment facility
Photo: Iranian's President's office.

Did you like it? Share it

Read more »

To the space and beyond

When last April North Korea launched a rocket/long-range missile into space, several voices started to shout out for sanctions against Kim’s regime. In the end, the test was, according to American military sources, a failure; although the North Koreans claim that their satellite is rounding the Earth chanting echoes of admiration for his present leader.

But looking forward the test itself, the point is that North Korea is under sanctions and is not allowed to test that kind of rockets or missiles. As we pointed out here, having a space platform doesn’t automatically qualifies for having a long-range missile system, but it helps. A lot. And that’s why the International community imposed the sanctions against North Korea.

This week, again, a rocket rocketed into the space from the Korean peninsula. Only that this time was from the South. After a few delays due to technical malfunctions and bad weather, the first South Korean satellite launched from its own soil was… Another failure. Exactly for the same reasons as the north neighbors. Both Koreas’ rockets weren’t able to reach a stable orbit, so the satellites were burned into the atmosphere.

But looking again forward beyond the launching, there is still the issue of the sanctions. If the North is banned for launching rockets into space or long-range missiles from its soil, it should rule the same standards for the South. Indeed, the North warned the international community they will be closely watching for the reaction to this launching.

Of course, the reaction has been nothing. It’s quite difficult, taking into account that the current General Secretary of the United Nations is a South Korean himself. Try again, Kim. But the truth has to be said, and it is that for once, the US hasn’t been so hypocrite as usual.

Sure, they haven’t condemned the South Koreans like they did with the northern neighbors. They couldn’t do it, in the end, the south is their ally. But at least they didn’t contributed either to the effort. When the South Koreans turned to the Americans for help with the rockets, they said “nay”. So the South government called on the Russians’ door (who finally helped them).

In this upside-down world, this rocket-incident and the recent behavior of the northsiders have exchanged the characters of the good and the bad guy between the two Koreas.

While the South claims that any critical commentary from the North about their space program is just "propaganda", the North has been giving sweets to the West for the past two months. First was the release of the two American journalists detained in March, after the visit of Bill Clinton.

Then, last week, Kim’s regime decided to resume conversations with the South, sent a delegation and condolences to the funeral of an ex-president of the South and is thinking about reopening the borders to tourists and familiar reunions.

With guys like these (specially Kim, who likes to be the good cop and the bad cop himself), who says politics are boring?



Photo: Park Ji-Hwan/AFP/Getty Images

Did you like it? Share it

Read more »

Holidays round

I’m not too eager of stopping working for long (journalism is more a lifestyle than a business, although others may have a different opinion). But sometimes it’s good to take a break. And that’s what I’m going to do from today.

Meanwhile, here are the main issues to follow during the next two weeks:

- Iraq: No more multi-national task force in Iraq. Instead, from today on, it will be just a sole force of one country, exclusively American.

- Iran: Yesterday was the 40th day anniversary of Neda Soltan’s death. Tehran saw again thousands in the streets mourning those killed in the repression by the government forces. And the Basiji, again, fought them back violently. At least 20 people died during last month post-electoral clashes.

But the scars are still fresh. An Iranian court urged the police to present charges against those detained (hundreds of them) and finally around two dozens will be prosecuted. Another prominent reformist was moved from his cell to a government house where he will be under house arrest.

It’s to expect a surge in the clashes again for the next weeks.

- Afghanistan/Pakistan: Helmand offensive still goes on. Yesterday, two British soldiers were killed and the casualty report doesn’t make anything but grow. The near Presidential election, due the 20th of August, promises a few busy weeks ahead. Karzai will win again, almost for sure, but his popularity is decreasing. The Talibans have already called for a boycott of the polls.

Meanwhile, in the southern country the drone wars go on. A recent attack killed, according to the CIA, one of Osama bin Laden’s son. The operations in Swat valley, carried on by Pakistani militaries with assistance from the Americans, have allowed thousands of refugees to go back to their homes, avoiding what could have been the worst refugee crisis since Rwanda.

But the Taliban menace persists. Pakistan signed yesterday a deal with Tajikistan to secure the region, cooperate in security matters and blahblahblah. So beautiful; the ‘Stans fighting together...

And just in case the Taliban weren’t enough trouble, a separatist group from Balochistan started to attack foreign aid workers in the area.

- China: The Uighur revolt still is on the frontpages. China revealed last week official numbers for killed and detainees. Detentions that today are still going on.

Also abroad. While the Chinese government was exchanging opinions with Obama and messages with Taiwan -both signs of aperture of the regime-, it was angrily criticizing the words of the Uighur exile leader and the projection of an Uighur documentary in a movie festival in Australia.

Australia, by the way, is engaged in another nasty diplomatic clash with China regarding a few wallabie employees of Rio Tinto detained in a spy case. The problem for those employees is that they revealed data from Chinese companies to their partners abroad. Data that is open source in China. This puts over the edge hundreds of consultants. What to do now? Where is the limit about what to publish and what not?

And if they survive that, still can be themselves into a collective illnes inside their company.

- Horn of Africa: With the comeback of somalian pirates, the region should have enough. There is even a new videogame about it. But this is Africa. There is never enough trouble.

Knowing that -or maybe collaborating to that- the USA has intensified his pressure over Eritrea and his support for the Islamist groups operating in Somalia. Yet a hypothetic deal sounds like a far dream.

Meanwhile, America plays a wild card strongening his presence in the area through the semi-autonomus region of South Sudan. Members of the newly created South Sudanese Air Force -no planes yet- were training this week in the USA. South Sudan is undergoing through a rearming process as the recent images of Faina’s tanks found in the region prove it.

- Rest of Africa: In Nigeria, clashes between Islamist militias and government forces in the north of the country left 150 deaths. The ambushes are still taken place.

In South Africa, newly elected President Zuma has abruptly ended his honeymoon with his voters. A massive strike shook the country during this week.

Meanwhile, a new campaign has been launched by a Namibian NGO. “Lords of bling” tries to remind the African leaders their promise to spend at least a 15% of the money in healthcare, a measure long forgotten by most of the African Union signers of it. The signer Akon has designed this song to remind that fact to the African presidents.



- Israel/Palestine: The settlements center the debate. International pressure grows as the US envoy to the region increases the talks too. Netanyahu agreed yesterday to destroy 900 houses in an East Jerusalem colony.

Inside Israel sensibilities around this are also changing. Some analysts consider Israel’s image abroad is being heavily damaged by the settlements (smart guy). Some settlers even are speaking out and admit they would leave in exchange for the money spent in their homes and similar conditions somewhere else inside Israel. Some others, not so.

What doesn’t change is Netanyahu’s hawkish government. The last idea is ask demand the Netherlands and the UK to stop giving funds to the NGO Breaking the Silence, who has done some research of alleged Human Rights violations in Gaza by the IDF. Next will be to point European governments how they should spend their money.

And meanwhile the Netanyahu’s government asks Holland and the UK to stop funding pro-Human Rights NGOs, their allies from the far right ask the IDF soldiers to cover up for the abuses committed in the West Bank.

On the northside, the IDF has been put on alert after Lebanon forces were movilized too. However, Israelí officials consider unlikely a reedition of 2006 Hezbollah-Israel war, specially now with so many international forces in the zone.

On the other hand, in Gaza, Hamas starts to apply their particular vision of government. Up until now, Palestinian women could consider themselves lucky. I was actually talking about this recently with a Palestinian friend. While Saudi Arabian women cannot drive a car or meet with strangers, Palestinian women can do that and even wear trousers, the head uncovered or -if they want, and also the men- buy alcohol.

All that could be about to change. A judge has ordered in Gaza to all the female lawyers to wear a head scarf. It is just an example of many more that are showing Hamas’ Islamist hand in Gaza. Like restrictions with alcohol or the new religious police. Here an Al Jazeera video on it:



- Latinamerica: Honduras’ political turmoil doesn’t look well. But at least negotiations are moving up. Slower than a sloth, but moving up. Zelaya is in Nicaragua’s border from where he visits periodically his supporters. Meanwhile the interim government is more and more in lack of support. Abroad, the USA revoked several diplomatic visas. Internally, the Army admitted the predisposition to accept a unity government with Zelaya in front. Last word is Micheletti’s.

Further to the south, Colombia and Venezuela are again fighting. This time, a few Swedish grenade launchers were the detonant of the diplomatic turmoil. The weapons, sold by Sweden to Venezuela, ended up being discovered in a FARC’s camp. After that, the usual crossfire between governments and Hugo Chavez’s usual recall of ambassadors.




And basically that’s all. Add some narco fights in Mexico and a political fight in Burma (Google this, I’m tired of linking news today) and you have enough to be busy for these two weeks I’ll be out.

So, until then... Be good, have fun, and don’t do anything I wouldn’t.




Did you like it? Share it

Read more »

Friendly fire 27/07/09

- India gets into the selected club of Navies with indigenous built nuclear submarines. It’s just the frontline of what’s still to come, an improvement of the Indian Navy that will include an increase from the actual 140 vessels to the 170 planned. That includes two more nuclear subs and two indigenous carriers.

- Korea continues playing; now they accept to talk about their nuclear program.

- Sarko collapses while jogging. Did he saw a hot chick jogging besides him? Fortunately, it was all just a scarce.

- Obama starts pushing for a deal in the Middle East. Meanwhile, back at home, Sarah Palin resigns; but not without a fight.

- Iranian courts are pushing in favor of the detainees: their future must be decided within a week or be released. Ahmadinejad, may be busy for the last days of his government. Unless he has to quit over a confidence vote from the Parliament.




Did you like it? Share it

Read more »

Kim’s health

The North Korean regime has distributed a recent photo of Kim Jong-il to prove the bad guys from the West that rumors putting Kim in a coffin soon are not true. Well, I have to admit that at least Kim looks better than the three military men behind him (specially the first from the left)




Photo: elmundo.es

Did you like it? Share it

Read more »

Jong-il's fireworks

Yesterday North Korea launched three short range missiles. The test comes after the launching of a Taepodong-2 long range missile in April and at least another mid-range missile by mid-June, apart from a nuclear test.

The missiles from yesterday were short-range KN-1 and KN-2 weapons. They are probably the most accurate among the arsenal of the Koreans. The missiles flew for around a 100 of km and then felt into the water.

When it comes to North Korea, it is always unclear to determine the purpose of those drills. It can be just a test for their military, it can be a threat-message for the West, or even, as some analysts suggest from the last launching, just to make some fireworks in order to please Kim Jong-il

(I don’t know why, but while writing the last sentence of the previous paragraph, it came into my mind an image of Jong-il jumping and clapping his hand excited like a child after the missile launches)

The paranoia over North Korea’s missiles is getting to the media. We already talked here about the chain of mistakes that evolved from a missile launching preparation into an attack on Hawaii on the 4th of July. Well, the paranoia is back.

Some agencies and newspapers are talking again about a possible threat against Hawaii in the Independence day. But that’s highly unlikely. In April’s launch of the Taepodong-2, the Koreans needed 12 day to fuel up the missile and prepare the launching site, all of it was fully observable from satellite images. Now, however, nothing has happened that could suggest an imminent launching. Too much fireworks for Jong-il.

But what is clear and really happened is yesterday’s events. Now we know why the North Koreans asked everyone in the region to stay away from their territorial waters. But also we learned some about the stuff they fired.

David Wright and Theodore Postol have written an analysis on the launching of last April’s Unha-2, or the modified Taepodong-2 used for satellite launchings. According to Wright and Postol, the parts of the missile were of Russian origin. The first stage looks similar to a cluster of four Nodong engines, a model based on the Russian Scud, while the second stage is identical to the Soviet R-27 missile.

As Nathan Hodge, from Danger Room states:

The bad news? The Unha-2 “represents a significant advance over North Korea’s previous launchers” and it could potentially reach the continental United States if it modified for use as a ballistic missile. The good news? The long-range missile “appears to be constructed from components that probably weren’t manufactured in North Korea.” In other words, they will sooner or later run out of missile parts, provided that sanctions remain in place.

So, keep firing Kim. Sooner or later you'll run out of fireworks.



Photo: AP


Did you like it? Share it

Read more »

Kim: Hey guys, I'm still here!

Kim Jong-Il doesn’t want us to forget about him with all the info going on now and frontpages for his commarade in the axis of evil, Iran. That’s why he warned us -again- with an all-out nuclear war.

I bet he regrets now the chocolates he sent to Ahmadinejad. That f**king bastard is stealing his protagonism... His hope rely on the fireworks he prepares for the 4th of July in Hawaii.

Oh, by the way. It's a fake. Not even those fireworks will make it to the US. It has been all a great chain of mistakes by the media.

Read more »

Jong-il strikes back

It seems like if Kim Jong-il North Korea was determined to appear on the frontpage of worldwide newspapers everyday. In the last two weeks, we have had news from Korea in three different fronts.

Probably the less worrying is the concerning to the leader succession. Continuous rumors about Jong-il’s health problems have leakened to the press for years, in a way similar to what happened to Castro. But still, very few is known about this issue.

Many sources identify Jong-il’s youngest son as the most plausible successor of his father. Kim Jong-un was, apparently, finally desinged as that after last nuclear tests. But even that is unclear even after a week.

Not much more is known about Jong-un himself. He is around 25 years old and educated in Switzerland. That and a photo of him when he was 11 years old is everything known about him. His older brother, however, is well known. But he doesn’t represent any threat. Not interested in politics, the older son of Jong-il prefers the casinos of Macau to his homeland.

Last week also were on the frontpages around the world the news about two American journalists arrested in the border with China and condemned to 12 years of forced works. Accused of espionage, they will be “re-educated” in a labor camp. But according with what is known about North Korean labor camps, it won’t be pleasant.

The bad taste joke that plays destiny with the US is that re-education methods used in these camps are the same used in Guantanamo (in fact, the ERE survival guides which are the basis for Guantanamo tortures were written after the experiences with the Koreans and Vietnamese) So, if Guantanamo’s methods are not torture, the US won’t be able to claim tortures on the two journos.

But clearly, the biggest issue has been the military escalade. It all started with North Korea’s missile. After the missile came a nuke test. And they may be more on the way, despite the warnings and sanctions from the UN.

The USA has already responded deploying troops and exercising with the South Koreans at the south of the DMZ. The DPRK gave back the ball chasing South Korean vessels and entering into SK national waters. This maritime tension continues growing up to today and there are worries about an attempt to launch a naval clash from the north. It is especially suspicious not the fact of North Korean vessels patrolling the area, but the ausence of movements from the Chinese fishing fleet.

Then Clinton warned Pyongyang with including it again in the list of terrorist states if they continue that way. Meanwhile, plans to face a possible ground invasion from the north of the 38 parallel were taking place.

Jong-il’s regime threatened then with a nuke total offensive and a “merciless attack”. But according to Gates, they wouldn’t be able to do so and the US may abort that attack immediately. Japan is on alert too and recently the American Senate opened the gate for the Raptor exports. Another reason for Jong-il to think twice before attacking.

However, the most plausible scenario is just a few more up toned words, maybe another nuclear test to provoke from Pyongyang and more sanctions from the UN. And then, back to every day’s game. Although some people in Washington are already theorizing about a postapocaliptic aftermath to the second Korea war, many more argue it will be highly improbable for that to happen. Thank God, because this was starting to be a bit worrying after Ahmadinejad’s victory.



Photo: DMZ / The Guardian - AP


.

Read more »

Arms race goes east II (The Dragon wakes up)

2030 is also the date in red on Chinese’s agenda. By then, according to the graphics we have been seeing for a decade, they will be the first economy of the world, way upper than the USA. And of course, it’s expected that the military power will follow similar paths as the economic development.

But we don’t have to go so far. Today’s Chinese Armed Forces are a power to take in consideration. And even a step behind, the number of them and their inventiveness keeps them in the frontline. Well, maybe inventiveness is a bit excessive, as many progression is not theirs, but a copy of other’s work.

However, whatever they do, they are doing it well. In less than what was expected, they have jumped from third generation jets to the fourth (Europe and the USA have already their 5th gen. fighters, the Eurofighter and Raptor respectively; and Russia works in the details for his own fifth gen. jet). But we should note that they were helped by the Russians in this jump (not willingly, however). But the fact is that now, they not only have a plane more than capable of facing the Hornets, Eagles and Sukhois in an air battlefield, but also to plant battle in the markets. And a better positioning in the places where this kind of planes might interest (Asia, Latin America and Africa).

Also the Navy sails with full power. The construction of a medical ship in November, woke up all kina of rumors in the West. This kind of ships have two primary tasks: help the casualties from conflicts far from the homeland, or help with humanitarian aid operations. It may be that China, ashamed after being unable to help in 2006 after the tsunami in Thailand, is trying to solve that for the future. But neocons in Washington prefer to think it is because of the other option, much more sinister.

Something else starting to take off in China is the naval air power. Today, the Chinese are the only superpower without a carrier capability. That will change from now to 2030. The dragons have announced they plan to build between four and six mid-size carriers. Like as it happened with Iran, some analysts are already calling wolf.

Truth, however, is slightly different. Four, six or even ten carriers don’t present a big threat. Kyle Mizokami gives ten reasons why we shouldn’t fear the Chinese. Norman Polmar also uses similar arguments. But over all that, over the difference in quality, quantity and experience, it would be the fact of China being more likely a friend than a foe.

Much more dangerous than a few carriers looks the possibility of the Chinese modifying ICBMs to target Western carriers. They never have said so, but a carrier is the only target possible that meets the description of a “big mobile sea target”. Either is that or the golf ball. But again, although it may be scary, is not something worth to worry. Many nations, including Australia, the UK and India already have anti-carriers measures. But these kinds of weapons are considered more a defensive mean than an offensive one. So, unless the US plans to attack China (and they don’t), there is nothing to fear.

The most imminent threat to the Americans may come from Korea. As demonstrated this week, its nuclear program and its ballistic missiles program make them the biggest menace to region stability. But of course, Korea doesn’t need any kind of advertising, Kim il-Jong already does his job now and then to make sure everyone notices him.



Photo PLA

Read more »

Friendly fire 06/05/09

- 30 years of Lady Tatcher.

- Dozens killed by a US attack in Afghanistan. Tolls go from 30 to hundreds. Karzai demands an investigation.

- Strange coalitions in war against piracy: a South Korean navy ship rescues a North Korean freighter.

- The only pig in Afghanistan, under threat for the swine flu.

- Ahmadinejad says too "Yes, we can!"


.

Read more »

Damn you Kim Jong-Il!

In the end, the United Nations Security Council could make it forward for a document condemning the DPRK’s launch of a long-range missile/satellite-rocket. The text also includes possible new “hard sanctions” for North Korea. And Kim Jong-Il said...

So... What?

As many analysts predicted, the DPRK not only ignored the resolution but also warned the Western countries with going back to the nukes line production. After a long up-down six-party negotiation, Pyongyang dismantled his Yongbyon nuclear reactor and agreed to do so with other facilities in the country. However, last December, the talks got stopped.

New American Administration has been able to attract again the Europeans, calm the Iranians and Russians and even make smile the Cubans. But the DPRK, that's something apparently Obama won't change. Too much ego in such a tiny person.

Read more »

Behind PDRK's epic rocket-fail

Against what Kim Jong-Il is telling us, probable the North Korean satellite is now transmitting (indeed) from a subacuatic orbit instead than over our heads.

But at least now we know the real reason for that. Japan said that they wouldn’t do anything to stop the launch, but they left free their anti-Godzilla monster (via Lumberjack):



This is outrageous! Kim Jong-Il, declare war on them!

And Jon Stewart about the Korean Dong missiles. Best part from minute 3.30.

The Daily Show With Jon Stewart	M - Th 11p / 10c
Bad Korea Move
thedailyshow.com
Daily Show Full Episodes Economic Crisis Political Humor

Read more »

And in the end, it flew away (but not so away)

In the end, Korea launched his rocket/missile. No-one had to intercept anything and the Third World War will have to wait for now. But it’s not clear if the Taepodong-2 (with or without its orbital payload) reached the outer space or not.

Propaganda from each side prays for different outcomes. PDRK says the satellite is already in orbit transmitting songs in honor of Kim Jong-Il and his predecessor.

Americans, however, maintain a different version. The rocket was fired, deployed his first stage but failed to separate from the second stage and felt into the Pacific Ocean. If that’s true, it would be the third fail of a Taepodong-2 missile. Final score (for now): Gravity 3 – Korea 0. These guys really suck.

But even if at the end the satellite is transmitting from a subacuatic orbit, Jong-Il still could be in position to celebrate it. So far, this launch at least was capable to separate the first stage. That’s much better performance than 2006 test, when the missile disintegrated less than a minute after launching.

And although the second and third stage couldn’t make it into orbit, providing that the telemetric from the rocket was sending correct data to base, now the Koreans will have plenty of data to analyze and check the problems.

Also politically, this launch rises the stokes for North Korea in an eventual negotiation about nukes or disarment.

But as appointed by the CNN, PDRK is still way far from being capable of suppose a threat to Europe or America. The payload in this launch (the satellite) was probably of about between 150 and 200 kg. A first-generation A-bomb (like the nukes tech the Koreans have) weights at least 1,000 kg. Too much work still to do.

Meanwhile, even alter the launch, the protests, the condemn from many world leaders –including Obama-, the UN is still unable to reach consensus on the matter. China is really working to calm down down everyone, indeed.



.

Read more »