The Israeli recklessness

Two Israeli attacks on Syria in less than 48 hours mean, at least unofficially, the entrance of the West in the Arab conflict. Israeli incursions have not only complicated a conflict already very convulsed. And as it happens with everything the Jewish state does, the consequences of these actions will resound beyond its borders.

The attacks came from outside Syrian airspace. According to both Reuters and AP, Israeli aircrafts entered Lebanon from the south and from within Lebanese territory, they released their weapons.

This fact highlights the impunity of Israel in the region. It's not the first time that Israel targets military objectives beyond its borders invading foreign airspace, nor the first time it does it with Syria. It is not even the first time that Syria is the target since the beginning of its bloody civil war.

Both Turkey and the Arab League have strongly condemned the attack. On the other hand, the vulnerability of Hezbollah and Syria has been highlighted. Again. Little or nothing can they do against the technological superiority of Israel.

Tel Aviv in the meantime neither confirms nor denies the news. All the information on the press was leaked through anonymous sources, faceless informants and unidentified spokespersons. The official stance is to deny the attack and to insist that there is no interest in entering the Syrian conflict.

That last part may be true. Assad, although an uncomfortable neighbor, is not a belligerent one. And without doubt, the government of Bashar al-Assad is better than some of the alternatives among the rebels, such as al-Nusra’s Islamists, who have been linked to al-Qaeda.

Photo: IAF

No one in Tel Aviv wants another Islamist government in the region after the experience with Egypt. In contrast, Syria's Assad is a controllable and controlled danger. The Syrian government has limited itself to be an intermediary between Iran and Hezbollah. And this is probably what has led to these attacks.

In fact, most analysts agree in stating that this attack is against Iran and Hezbollah and not against Syria. The targets of the bombs would have been, again according to anonymous sources, shipments of Iran-made Fateh-110 missiles to the Lebanese militia.

Israel's red lines in this case are different to those for Obama. The United States does not want to get involved in Syria and puts the limit in the use of chemical weapons, but deliberately does not specify how or how much is too much.

For Israel, the red line is the transfer of advanced military equipment to Hezbollah, and it does not mind getting into Syria as it has done for years. In Wired, Noah Shachtman speculates that the danger comes not from the type of missiles held by the Lebanese militia, but their numbers.

Currently Israel is able to defend themselves from the threats in possession of Hamas with the Iron Dome missile defense system. For the Fateh-110 Israel has another system, the Arrow-2, but unlike the Iron Dome, it has not been tested in combat.

This is aggravated by the fact that these systems are not foolproof and all they can achieve is minimizing the impacts. They will never be able to avoid them altogether, that’s something completely out of reach.

If Israel allows arming Hezbollah with substantial amounts of Fateh-110 (which can also carry chemical weapons), this further reduces interception rates. And it is enough for one of the missiles to impact in an Israeli city to destabilize the whole region.

That may be the main reason for Israel to get into the conflict. However, it is an extremely selfish reason and their actions have consequences for more people than those in the Jewish state.

To begin with, the Assad regime has now the perfect excuse to demonize the rebels. According to a spokesman of the regime, the rebels are "friends of Israel" and the attack was made in a coordinated manner.

The UN has helped to this extent, albeit involuntarily, by saying through Carla del Ponte that chemicals attacks recently detected in Syria may actually have been the work of rebel militias. They later announced in a separate statement that there are no definitive conclusions yet.

Beyond Syria’s and Israel’s borders, these attacks push the West into a war that it doesn’t want. According to Robert Fisk, if there is no condemnation of the bombing means the de facto U.S. and European support for Israel's actions.

Obviously Washington is not going to condemn the attacks. In fact Obama has already said that Israel has the right to defend itself, without specifying further. Surely his government is upset that Netanyahu did not inform in advance of the incursions, but that will not change its official position.

The Israeli attack has also polarized the Arab public. Except for Jordan, no other country in the area wants Europe and America to send aid in the form of weapons and military equipment to the rebels. Let alone to have a Western military intervention in Syria.

On the other side of the world, the recent visit of Israeli Prime Minister to China has been the perfect excuse for the Asian giant to begin the rehearsal of his role as a global superpower. Meanwhile, the two former superpowers -the United States and Russia- continue to disagree in almost everything.

Read more »

War like a videogame

GoPro cameras have found a place in Syria too. The results, however, are kind of surrealist. It almost transforms the video below in a picture taken out of a videogame. Something that, on the other hand, it wouldn't be that weird in a conflict that has seen a homemade tank controlled by a Playstation gamepad or a remote-controlled rifle operated from a laptop.

Read more »

Syria and the diplomacy game

Syria has become a broken toy no one wants to get their hands on. Truth be told, the situation has escalated and it is way more complicated now. What used to be black or white has now dozens of shades of gray in between. The Balkanization of the conflict has derived in a war with dozens of splinter cells with targets too different between themselves.

There is no more a homogeneous opposition. Some groups want to oust Assad. Others just want to defend their neighborhoods. The Kurds are happy taking care of their own business watching the rest killing themselves. And then there are the ones looking for a Yihad. For those ones, the -theoretically- socialist and laic regime of Assad is as good as a target as anything else.

That is why steps are given carefully. Slow and shy attempts on all sides. Take for example Russia, who started championing Assad. Now they are rather looking for a golden retirement for him and his family in a third country.

We have as well the Arab states of the Gulf. They are between a rock and a hard place. On one hand they would love nothing more than getting rid of Iran’s friend in the region. On the other hand, they are frightened a revolution like that could caught them at home.

In a similar place is Israel, whose is irritated by Assad but fears who could come after him. They have the bad experience of Egypt, where Mubarak was a manageable leader that didn’t give them too many problems. Things have changed with Morsi, if only on the public arena.

Photo: Facebook group

The last one to risk a move has been the USA, announcing they will help directly the Syrian opposition. With a clear red line: no weapons or training. Just medicines and food to avoid future problems.

The Americans don’t want another Afghanistan or Libya. In the former they helped the Taliban; in the later they helped the Gadaffi opposition. Both groups turned their backs on America, one of them in a war still going on, the other one with the attack on Bengazhi’s embassy and Mali.

The Syrian opposition however thinks that all that about food and medicines is good intentions but nothing more. A video uploaded to Facebook shows how much they esteem the help provided by Washington.

However, the lack of a pipeline of weapons from the West isn’t stopping Syrians of getting armed. Recently some images of what looks like Chinese surface-to-air missiles appeared online. How they got there is a mystery. But even without sponsors, Syrians have demonstrated a high dose of imagination. One of them is a Playstation-controlled tank they created out of scrap pieces. That is bringing the game of Libya to a whole new level.

France and the UK have been trying to solve that. They are the top supporters of lifting an EU-embargo on Syria. They are even considering going freelance and arm the rebels themselves, even if that means defying the European Union.

Several Gulf states, however, keep funding and arming rebel groups. Qatar and Saudi Arabia are among them. This, again, could turn counterproductive in the end for the Americans. Without a direct control on the arms pipeline, those weapons could end up in the hands of groups that aren’t so worrying for those Muslim states, like al-Nusra. And this would be the same problem all over again, only that way closer to strategic allies like Israel.

Read more »

Calling wolf (again)

Last week we woke up to the unsettling news of Al Assad cooking sarin-filled ammunitions. It is not that we didn’t know that Syria has chemical weapons. We knew it. But some intelligence reports suggest now that the regime of Assad may be loading them on the delivery recipients.

Immediately, the US stated that using chemical weapons would be a “red line” that if crossed would carry “consequences”. It is easy to imagine those consequences in the form of a Libya-style intervention.

If the reports are true it would show significant weakness for the Assad regime. That shouldn’t come as a surprise. The rebels are closing the gap with Damascus' airport and fighting for its control, with flights having to be cancelled for hours at some points in the past few weeks. For now, the airport is open but the road to the city is a battlezone.

The recent blackout of the Internet seemed also like a desperate measure by the Syrian government to cut the leaking of videos and information from within Syria. Mixing the sarin and loading them onto the delivery recipients would be the prelude of another desperate measure. Because if done, it all becomes way more complicated.

Photo: TRDefence

While separate on their active ingredients, it is somewhat stable and relatively easy to store. But once mixed, and considering the decades-old technology employed by Syria, it must be used immediately or there would be risks of leaks and deterioration.

It is also more difficult to store, due to the sarin being extremely corrosive. Add to that the degradation of the quality of the gas. In fact, to avoid all these problems, Iraqi soldiers -who used the same tech when attacking the Kurds in the 80’s- mixed the gas on the spot just before firing the ammunitions or loading them onto the bombs.

However, some people see on these reports more of a remake of the Iraq invasion than a real threat. Calling wolf on weapons of mass destruction to fuel their own interest -whatever they could be. And it is not only the Russians, who have a clear conflict of interest with Syria, but also activists among the rebel ranks.

Those rebels, or at least some of them, are what several analysts have said we should be worried about. They are talking of a proper nightmare scenario. If the Assad government fails, all those chemical weapons that do really exist could end up in the hands of the rebel groups, some of them linked to al-Qaeda. And those rebels have already stated that they want those weapons, while their methods aren’t always that different from what they say to be fighting.

This isn’t a new problem. The US came up with a solution to a similar problem in Pakistan, setting a back-up plan in case the government failed to secure the nuclear stockpile of the country. However, Syria is not Pakistan. There are no dollars to put into Assad’s account to shield the sites storing the weapons -for now, Assad just keeps moving them around- and it is unlikely Russia would see with good eyes an intervention on Syrian soil by American soldiers -that was the plan B in Pakistan. 

Instead, the Americans are hoping to train Syrian rebels to secure and handle those weapons. But that plan can only work if those rebels arrive before al-Qaeda linked groups to the sites and if Assad’s government cooperates to some degree. Two very big if’s in a very volatile environment.

Either that or call the Israelis in.

Read more »