The straw that breaks the camel’s back

Hosni Mubarak's lawyer said today that his client could be free in less than 48 hours. It would be the last straw, the final step for a planned return to the old regime in Egypt, one that the coup that was not a coup started.

Since the Egyptians ousted the Egyptian president, that revolution has only gotten more and more diluted. As it has happened in other places, as in Syria, groups as diverse as Islamists and liberals remained together long enough to carry out their common goal. That wasn’t going to last long.

Once decapitated the old regime, each of the groups looked after their own interests. In their search for power, both allied with the only option left for them, which was none other than the old regime itself or what was left of it: the military.

The pic that put Facebook in flames

First was Morsi, who cleaned the army starting with Tantawi and placed general al-Sisi in front. Sisi was more prone to change and even close to the Muslim Brotherhood in matters of religion. However, as happened to Allende in Chile in '73, the general that Morsi considered an ally was the one who ultimately betrayed him.

Then came the turn of the Liberals. In their desire to oust Mubarak from power, in the second round of the last elections they were met with a hard choice between the old regime remnant and the Muslim Brotherhood. Finally, fed up of the latter’s government, in July they sided with the other band, the army, to oust Morsi.

Since July 3 when the army carried out the coup that wasn’t a coup, the Liberals were at the forefront defending the generals. They believed they were on their side. In a way, it was true: both sides wanted to overthrow Morsi, but the agenda of the army goes further than just that. While liberals wanted elections, the army wanted a return to the old regime.

Hence the return to the cult of personality with Sisi, the use of thugs to suppress demonstrations or the veiled threats to international and regional press, all slightly reminiscent of the Mubarak era. The release of the former Egyptian President would be the last piece of the puzzle.

Meanwhile, the Muslim Brotherhood has taken to the streets and violence was assured. They will fight. The army has fought back Morsi’s supporters and over 800 Islamists are already dead at the time of writing this, and rising. Add to this the Islamist violence exerted primarily against Egyptian Christians, destroying churches and Coptic businesses. The army didn’t protect all those places as it should have done it, and it might have not been on purpose, but now the Coptic community is forced to side with the army.

The military has not hesitated to use the –sometimes armed- resistance of Morsi supporters as propaganda against them. For now they are branded as terrorists and it is perfectly conceivable that Sisi will end up using it to outlaw the whole party.

What does the world think about this? Well, Egypt is not what it used to be. It is not the influencer it once was among Arab countries. All the Gulf countries’ but Qatar support Sisi’s government. In the global arena, the EU has protested the violent repression of demonstrations. The United States has canceled joint military exercises with Egypt but maintains the military aid, which is to say that it has canceled the brunch but dinner still stands.

Curiously, the only other country in the area that receives massive amounts of U.S. military aid is also the only one who has supported the military coup in Egypt. Israel is not interested in a democratic country in the Nile delta, but a strong army to do what they are doing now: fight the Islamists in the Sinai and suffocate Hamas in Gaza.

Read more »

Dr. Obama & Mr. Hyde

Normally during their second term U.S. presidents reveal their true ambitions. Without the pressure of having to win a re-election at the end of the term, they have their hands free to implement all those unpopular policies that in their first term would have been suicidal but that are the ones that forge a presidential legacy.

For Obama, it was going to be hard to accomplish more than in the first four years. Obamacare and the closing chapter of Osama Bin Laden were a hard act to follow. All this, however, has gone out of the window. His legacy might be rather murky in the end.

Picture: Obama's twitter

The revelation of secrets involving the US government spying its own citizens has dented the image of the country both abroad -and this is the novelty- and within the US. Foreigners were already suspicious; Americans are now on board that train too. All this has made Obama into a sort of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde.

It is remarkable to see the different opinions that held candidate Obama and President Obama. Several online videos illustrate how both Obamas could have perfectly had a debate with completely opposing views. As an example, take this video. There is another one that puts Obama to debate with Biden.

The truth is that the US President has promoted laws to protect those who leak information to the press. But at the same time, he has ensured that no one can do it without being considered a traitor. To get an idea, it would be like legalizing the use of hands to play soccer while banning at the same time touching the ball at all. And while Obama is defending the whistleblowers that are working towards building up the freedoms of citizens, his team also removed from the memory of his electoral program the mentions to all promises working on that line.

Obama's speech isn’t contradictory only when talking about whistleblowers. Take the global war on terrorism, for example. Obama has put a deadline on the military intervention in Afghanistan and he has decided that the conflict is over, just to have the Pentagon saying straight after that it actually will be around for 10 or 20 years more -which is like saying that it will never end.

That’s without mentioning other flops like Guantanamo, still there. Or the policy of use for drones, whose operations have grown exponentially since Obama is in the White House. There even have been ad-hoc laws created to legalize the targeted killing of Americans who belong to "associated forces" of Al-Qaeda, which in practice is a blank check to blast out anyone anywhere.

But undoubtedly the cases of Manning and Snowden are the ones that seem to have started the ball rolling at home. Manning has been held incommunicado for weeks, months, years, without knowing his future. Today he finally knew it: he will be considered a snitch, not a traitor. The saga is not over yet. There are 20 more charges that could lead to a more than 120 years sentence.

For Snowden it is more poignant. The journalist who he leaked the information to is facing already voices calling for his prosecution and a smear campaign. It’s a declaration of intentions and a warning to the press in general. It effectively coerces journalists who might land in the future on leaked information. They know what they must adhere to. Snowden, meanwhile, lives in an airport at the moment and probably he will never again have a normal life.

But neither will American citizens -or the rest of the world. Giants like Microsoft, Apple, Google and Facebook have been involved in a case that threatens something Americans defend to death: privacy.

Snowden’s support among American citizens is far greater than the one for Manning, basically because this time Americans rights are the ones that got violated; not some foreign people’s. PRISM has done far more damage to the Obama administration that the supposed dangers it was trying to protect them from.

Obama might be remembered as the president who killed bin Laden. Or the one who won a Nobel Peace Prize. Perhaps as the one who created the basics of an egalitarian health system or the one who rescued the car industry. But he also might be remembered as the tyrant who spied, tortured and killed other Americans. And there isn’t any Nobel Peace Prize capable of cleaning that.

Read more »

Arab Spring, Islamist Summer

With the perspective that gives time, many Westerners who at first supported the Arab revolutions look now in fear the apparent result of this spring: an Islamist summer. It worries them so much that many celebrated the coup against Morsi in Egypt -despite being, all in all, a coup.

All the countries involved in the Arab Spring, from Morocco to Syria, have seen raise their Islamic base. In Egypt the Muslim Brotherhood ruled the country until a coup ousted Mursi two weeks ago. Islamist militias in Syria such as al-Nusra are gaining influence. In Morocco and Tunisia two Islamic parties took power in the last elections. Hamas, in turn, governs in the Gaza Strip for some time now.

Since none of the previously mentioned factions have reached their sphere of influence after using violence (except al-Nusra) it is difficult to think that all those Islamists were not there before. Probably they couldn’t be heard. However, the new landscape gives them greater freedom of action.

But most of those who took to the streets of Rabat, Damascus or Cairo weren't religious, they were liberals. They wanted more democracy, more participation and a more equitable distribution of wealth. And they were asking for solutions to problems like unemployment and to break with the old regime.

However, following a familiar pattern, in every case what began as a liberal revolt has become an Islamist one. Just as the Palestinians first embraced Fatah and then jumped into the arms of Hamas, the other citizens of the Arab uprisings have traveled the same path, only that in an accelerated way.

It is a known pattern. Fatah, like Mubarak, Gaddafi, Assad or Ben Ali, represented the old regime. For its citizens, the only flag of change is that of the Islamists. And that is what they embrace, at least at first.

This should not surprise or be a cause of concern to the West. This is a natural evolution that does not have to stay like that. In Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood is not anymore in power after increasingly having more and more problems to solve what people were really interested in; like unemployment. It took a second popular uprising and a military coup, but Morsi is ousted now.

And once awakened, the Egyptian society -like the other societies- is not going to stand idly by. The liberal roots of the revolution are already resurfacing in Tahrir.

But even if the Islamist were to remain in power in other places, a government with a strong religious bias is not so strange. It happens all the time in Western democracies. After all, the United States mint their coins with the phrase "In God We Trust", in England the Government is subject to the head of the Anglican Church and in many other countries the Prime Minister is sworn on the Bible.

Moreover, also in Western countries there is an alternation of power between more liberal and secular parties and others more influenced by religion. As long as this also happens in the Middle East, there is no room for concern.

What really matters is that: the alternance in power. If there is freedom to choose and change the government, there should be no problem. And so far, the Arab countries have demonstrated that it is possible. Even if a coup is needed.

The main problem here is that what the people in the Middle East may want, may not be in sync with what the West wants. That is another thing completely different, the personal preference of each country. After the coup in Egypt, several Arab outlets like Al Jazeera were raising the question of whether if the Middle East had failed democracy or it was democracy the one that failed the Middle East.

Along the way to democracy there will be progress on some issues, such as greater democratic openness and an awakening of society towards more liberal and secular thinking, and others will be steps backward. The cases of Gaza or Iran, where Islamic revolutions triumphed long ago, show the way, with its lights and shadows.

In fact, it's reassuring to those who are concerned about the Islamist future of the Middle East to notice that the people on the street now are again secular and demanding secular solutions.

The current drift of Arab society, after the initial wave of Islamism -the easier and more visible option- is that of secularism. That will be the second Arab Spring, but still it will take some time to arrive. Egypt is showing us the route. In the meantime, we will have an Islamist summer.

Read more »

Old habits die hard

We live in a world radically different to the one from the Cold War era. In fact, that is a period of time that has been left behind by all of us. No more fear of a nuclear holocaust. In Hollywood, the bad guys are now Arab terrorists, not communist soldiers.

Even the age of the arms race has been overcome. Not only we are reducing our nuclear arsenals –except for you, Kim. The armies in general are shifting their priorities. The United Kingdom doesn’t put its emphasis anymore on nuclear submarines. The Russians are going the same way with their subs.

War has changed. You do not need large armies to fight with other nations’ big armies. Now different weapons are in demand. Remotely controlled drones, armored vehicles that resist homemade mines and guerrilla tactics for compact armies; those are the tactics generals want now.

Not even the United States wants to be a policeman of the world anymore. Its intervention in Libya was on par with the French. In Mali it only provided auxiliary forces. And when it comes to Syria, it's been trying to stay out of it for as long as it has been able to.

Of course, one thing is to want to abandon old habits and quite another one to do so. There are still vestiges of the Cold War that are very active. The most interesting one is the case of old fashion espionage.

During the 90s, the advancement of technology made spy agencies decide to spend less on information from human sources and more on their digital eyes. Satellites in orbit were giving all the information they felt they needed. However, 9-11 changed the paradigm and since then the human spies are living a second youth.

The latest episode, including the capture of an American CIA spy in Moscow, illustrates that little has changed. He wore various wigs, a compass, a blocker for radio signals (tin foil) and as the only element of the 21^st century, a mobile phone.

It is not the only recent espionage case. In London, the death of former KGB agent Alexander Litvinenko has led some to believe that his former bosses were behind the poisoning with polonium.

Anna Chapman

Much more striking was the capture of Anna Chapman and nine other Russian spies in the United States. Chapman went immediately on to become a celebrity.

But there is one side of the resurgence of the Cold War times much less reported: the revival of reconnaissance flights. During the '60s, '70s and '80s, American and Russian aircrafts occasionally poked or even went into foreign airspace. It was a sort of cat and mouse game, whose purpose was to check whether the other’s defenses were alert or not.

Russia has returned to this game several times since 2012. Long-range bombers sporadically poke the Arctic and tested the patience of its neighbors. In this regard, Sweden has failed the test. It was not the first time that Russian aircraft entered its airspace and Swedes have failed to respond in time.

This strategy is probably part of another covert war that is beginning to take shape: the battle for the Arctic. But that's a story for another day.

Read more »

Why the conservatives have regained Iceland?

Much has been said in the media about the victory of the conservatives in the latest election in Iceland. However, while it is true that the leftist coalition has suffered a debacle, there are many more factors to consider in the equation.

For starters, as in Italy, Greece and Spain, many small parties have raised their percentage in votes. Some have been on the verge of parliamentary representation. Others, like the pirate party, are full on with strength.

Overall, the Parliamentary cake was previously divided between two or three forces. Nowadays a quarter of those votes have been grabbed by minority parties. However, half of them will have no parliamentary representation because they did not meet the minimum percentage required. That percentage has gone on to benefit other parties.

This fragmentation has hurt the left. But they also have been punished for the policies undertaken under their rule.

Despite being held up as examples to what the left should do in countries like Spain, Ireland or Italy, the reality is that the coalition has not deployed a policy different from that carried out in the German modeled EU.

Budget cuts, controlling the deficit and austerity measures have been the norm. This was completed with the insult that represented having to go to the EU for help, losing independence in the process.

The main winner of these elections, the ultranationalist party Progressive Party, has made a good use of the prospect of losing autonomy and is a strong anti-EU advocate.

Meanwhile, contrary to the general idea held outside Iceland that the country has been prosecuting its bankers, it is very little what really has been done about it. The people behind the credit crunch crisis in Iceland have been left mostly untouched, as in Spain, Italy, Greece or Ireland. In fact, Germany has opened more cases against bankers than Iceland.

The Icelandic popular revolution, once admired outside, had many people disappointed inside the country. Living standards, partly due to the devaluation of the Krona, were down at least 30%. To this we must add a high inflation (an increase of 75% since 2005) and the ruin of the housing market.

Although the houses were now worth between 30 and 40% less, many mortgages had been signed in Euros. This was a horrible combination. The houses were less valued, but the owners’ debts had increased. The gap was too big to overcome for many families.

The situation was so desperate that the coalition government wrote off any mortgage debt above 110%, but that still left a lot of people deeply in debt. Unable to afford their homes’ mortgages and with commodity prices skyrocketing, the situation was complicated.

One of the promises of the Progressive Party in this election has been to eliminate up to 20% of all the household debt. Looking at the results from the polls, the strategy worked. They have not won, and they are not likely to carry it forward, but they have increased in number of votes and seats in the Parliament.

In the end, what has made people decide to punish the left has been mostly disappointment. Many thought that a leftist government would end the austerity policies, imprison bankers and remain independent.

The reality is that despite their intentions, in the end the leftist coalition did not know or could not remain true to their ideals. The disenchantment among voters caused many to stay home and not go to vote.

That along with the reasons given above, explains the collapse of the revolution envisioned by many in Europe. A revolution that just maybe, it was just all façade and had no foundations.

Read more »

Thatcher's legacy

Margaret Thatcher is dead. But the woman who was probably one of the most influential people after World War II, not only in the UK but in the world, lives on through her legacy. 

Summarize what Thatcher meant would be impossible in just a few words. Years after the Iron Lady left No. 10 Downing Street, the effect of her policies is clear everywhere. Ask to the Scottish and northern English about the dismantlement of their industry, or to the Occupy movement about deregulation of the banks, and her name will likely appear.

  

Glasgow is an example of an industrial city that was literally abandoned to their fate. The once booming industrial hub became an “every man for himself” situation when the Thatcher government washed its hands and decided not to help the industry. Exactly the opposite to what Obama did with Detroit.

  

Thatcher’s decision ended up in rampant unemployment, crime and economic depression. It was so severe that only now the city is beginning to raise above the mud. The miners of northern England didn’t have better luck despite their year long strike.  

Photo: Javier Garcia Marcos/WGMreports

Not only the mining and the heavy industry suffered through her policies over the years. The shadow of the Iron Lady is felt today in all deregulations the UK has had since. From healthcare to banking, to education; no sector was left unscattered. Thanks to Maggie, children in Britain stopped getting a glass of milk with every meal at school.

These deregulations not only were continued by his party, but also by Labour. Some people used to joke that Thatcher's greatest legacy was Tony Blair. Truth is that for better or worse, after her every single politician changed their ways. Both Conservative and Labour, none wanted, knew or could get away from the influence left by the Baroness.

Internationally, Margaret Thatcher was also able to make her mark. As hated or loved as back in Britain, she left no one unimpressed. She was a great friend of both Kissinger and Gorbachev, she helped Pinochet evade justice, she aided the government of Pol Pot in Cambodia and she called Mandela a terrorist.

Meanwhile, the tories are today Eurosceptic mostly thanks to the Iron Lady. No one did more against the EU than her. And from within. It is also part of his legacy the decision to stay out of the euro, which to be honest today seems like one of the best decisions arising from Thatcherism.

In Argentina the Falklands war will be always remember. In domestic terms, with the country in ruins, the war served as an unbeatable propaganda platform for Thatcher, who regained popularity and managed to inflame the patriotic sense.

It was a perfect play for her: the Baroness was reelected for a second term, in which she carried out most of the privatizations of public companies. Only the postal service was spared. After Tatcher, Major, Blair and Brown would finish the job with the centralization of power in London and the loss of autonomy for the municipalities.

For all this and much more is not surprising that hundreds of people went out to the streets to celebrate her death. Hatred for Thatcher and Thatcherism continues in many who even today see her mark on proposals like David Cameron‘s Bedroom tax. Those who idolize her will also have their moment at the state funeral.

Down in History, she will always be the first woman at the helm of the British government, but she never did much to promote the role of women, either in politics or society. When he entered No. 10 Downing Street, 3% of the Commons were women; when she left it was only a fraction more at 6.3%. However, her example was enough to encourage other women to follow suit.

One thing we do need to recognize is that the country's situation when Thatcher took office was miserable. Britain was paralyzed, with even coffins lined up waiting to be buried because everyone was on strike.  The country had an alarming unemployment rate and had been humiliated after having to resort to an IMF loan.

Thatcher managed to lift the country from the ashes, but the price to pay was too high for society. But since according to Thatcher "society does not exist", that was a price that the Iron Lady was more than willing to pay.

Read more »

A second golden age for contractors

Three name changes, dozens of legal problems, two major disputes with the governments of Iraq and the United States and the resignation of its founder, would mean a disaster for any company. Not for Academi.

The company previously known as Xe and Blackwater -now bearing the “boring name” of Academi- has a bright future ahead. Or at least that is what one would think reading the report from an independent commission on the attack to the US embassy staff in Benghazi.

Both the independent commission and a Senate hearing have stated that the main problem was that the guards were foreign and unreliable. And both recommended either increase considerably the State Department personnel or hire external guards to take care of US diplomatic security abroad.

Considering the current austerity wave around the world, the first option is unlikely. That leaves the contractor option as the only one. Which in turn it means Blackwater -and other contractors. 

Blackwater guards

And it is a big cake to share: anything between $2.2 billion and $1.3 billion, depending on who you listen to -either the commission or Clinton talking to the Senate.

But that is not the only market for armed guards. Despite a widespread call against the NRA’s suggestion of putting armed guards in schools to prevent mass shootings, some Councils are already discussing the option. 

If passed, most towns don’t have the resources to pull police officers to patrol schools and it would mean another source of income for contractors. Even if it is only a matter of training guards and teachers, Blackwater may be in a good position to take advantage of it.

Read more »

Israel's open hand to the Palestinians

Photo: Baz Ratner/Reuters

Netanyahu promised consequences if the UN voted in favor of the Palestinian statehood bid. That would have been an optimistic view. In a conflict fuelled by retaliations -who shot first?- there was to expect some sort of payback.

However, Western democracies probably didn’t expect this degree of bitterness. It is a diplomatic Cast Lead operation against the Palestinian Authority and the West Bank.

The Palestinians felt the hand that the Israelis tend in peace to them, as the Israeli ambassador to the UN said last week in New York. Only that it was more of a fist than an open hand. Immediately after the UN vote, Israel announced that it would confiscate the tax revenues it collects on behalf of the PA.

We are not talking about some spare change; it is $120m that pay mostly Palestinian civil servants’ salaries. That money will go to pay a debt of around $200m that the PA had with the Israeli electrical company, who provides energy needs for the West Bank.

An Israeli official told the Guardian the move came now in response to the UN bid and it could be repeated next month. "A lot depends on what the Palestinians do or don't do," he said.

But that is not all of it. Israel announced as well the construction of 3000 new homes in the West Bank, including in East Jerusalem. The plan projects the building of a new corridor of homes in the E-1 sector, connecting north-east and south-east Jerusalem.

This is a red line even for Washington and Tel Aviv. There is no way back from there. It erases any possible two-state solution. It effectively surrounds and disconnects East Jerusalem from any possible Palestinian state.

This decision infuriated the American and European governments, who criticized harshly the move. Some even recalled their ambassadors, like in the case of France, Britain, Spain, Denmark and Sweden.

Despite this, Netanyahu is focused on keeping on track with this plan. Not only that, but he has also defrosted a plan to build an extra 1700 homes in Ramat Shlomo, beyond the Green Line, that was suspended in 2010. Additionally, Israel has renewed patrols to identify and demolish Arab houses illegally built in East Jerusalem.

Israel has gotten used to play hard and being isolated internationally. It is not the first time the US criticizes an Israeli decision. Neither is it the first time European countries recall ambassadors.

But somehow, Netanyahu has been always able to pull some advantage out of it. It is part of Netanyahu's twisted idea of a negotiation. Back in 2010, Obama offered him 20 fifth generation F-35 jets in exchange for a 90-day moratorium on the construction of new homes. If this happens again, it wouldn’t be the first time someone sees bribing or blackmailing on it.

Read more »

What after Palestine-194?

Jehad’s birthday is on the 30^th of November. As a Palestinian living in the UK, the news of Palestine being recognized as a state arrived from America just on time to celebrate his birthday. At that moment, the UN was voting in favor of granting Palestine recognition as a non-member state and a seat as an observer state at the UN.

His fellow nationals back across the West Bank and Gaza were as well celebrating. It is indeed a huge step forward for the Palestinians towards a two state solution and an upgrade to their situation, at least internationally.

Photo: AP/Seth Wenig

Upgrades, however, are as good as the originals they are based on and this one is not an exception. If the base is not good enough, the upgrade probably will fall on the short side. The change of status may be a small victory but the real repercussions are few and not all of them satisfactory for the Palestinians.

When Palestinians sobered up from the UN vote, Israeli settlers were still building, the checkpoints were still there, the wall was still present and the blockade in Gaza was still in effect. Even back at the UN, the Palestinians’ seat will remain at the same place where it has been since 1974, besides the Holy See’s.

The benefits are widely diplomatic more than on-the-ground results and they will take time to become real. For starters, this would give the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) more weight in their negotiations with Israel.

The most talked about benefit is the possibility for the PLO to apply for access to the InternationalCriminal Court (ICC) and prosecute Israeli citizens. However, even this move could turn into a double edged sword because it would allow as well Israel to prosecute Hamas militants after a rocket attack kills Israeli civilians.

Furthermore, the Palestinians don’t need to use the ICC. Several processes open in European countries -specially in the UK and Spain- have proven effective bringing Israeli leaders to a courtroom or, at least, limiting their travel freedom.

Photo: Anna Day/Instagram 

The one effect this UN bid has gotten is clearly propagandistic. Fatah is the biggest winner and they needed it. Hamas was growing in popularity not only in Gaza but also in the West Bank and this gives the PLO some air to breathe. As journalist Mikel Ayestarán commented from Ramallah, in the celebrations on the street you could see “more Yellow (PLO) flags than Palestinian flags”.

On the other hand, the vote shows how Israel has gotten yet even more isolated internationally. 138 countries voted in favor of the Palestinians for only nine against. 41 abstained.

Out of the nine that voted against, four were Pacific island micro-states; the rest being one European (Czech Republic), three American (the US, Canada and Panama) and, obviously, Israel. Among the European countries, after being unable to agree on a common position, Germany, Netherlands and the UK abstained while France, Spain, Ireland and Italy voted yes.

But this international isolation is something Israel is used to. They actually expected it and the vote maybe comes just as the realization that they have “lost Europe”. The only country whose swift would actually mean something for Israel would be the US, and they have a strong ally in there.

Read more »

Did we expect too much?

In the end, Copenhagen ended as Obama’s current approval rate: disappointing. The UN summit had from the beginning the same problem as the American President; too many expectations were lying on it to be accomplished. Some even copied Obama’s claim, from Copenhagen to Hopenhagen. But trying to achieve a global goal, with a global agreement, that has been delayed for ten years, in just a week; looked like a hopeless mission.

But yet some have extracted a few valuable lessons from the meeting. According to the Economist, ten years ago, in Kyoto, it was difficult even bring the developing countries to the table in order to talk. This time, they have been talking since the beginning. However, the main problem continues there (and will be there for long). The developing countries’ leaders -China and India- had led the ‘No’ group. In fact, many analysts blame China for the huge failure of Copenhagen.

According to a report from Mark Lynas, a freelance journalist present in Copenhagen, China “not only rejected targets for itself, but also refused to allow any other country to take on binding targets”. By putting pressure on Asian and African countries that depend on their trade with China, they blocked the deal. It’s the first punch of a new superpower, without military bases or the need to invade foreign countries.

Truth is, Africa and Asia didn’t need too much encouragement either to commit to China’s goal. Besides from the fact of the trade-related pressure from China, in Copenhagen, the main fight came from the demand of the developed countries -specially the Umbrella group- to the developed countries to commit themselves too to cut the carbon emissions. Meanwhile, the developing countries insist that much of the problem was caused by the developed countries, and they cannot sacrifice their technological growth just now. Or at least, not for free.

This might have had a reasonable point in 1990, when their emissions were half of the developed world. And it still might work for many African and Asian nations. But right now, China is the first polluter of the world and between them and the Indians, almost equalize the total carbon emissions of the developed world. It doesn’t matter now who polluted more in the past; what matters now is to stop polluting. All of us.

The problem for China is that, if they want to become a real superpower as the USA is today, they need that CO2 in the air. China's growth, and growing global political and economic dominance, is based largely on cheap coal. Their strategy is a long shot. They have the advantage of not having the NGOs and the ecologist groups putting pressure on them -it always goes to the US and the EU. Not even internally will have problems: they don’t respond before a strong public opinion nor they have to be elected every four years.


Photo: Olivier Morin/AFP/Getty Images.
Activists demonstrate outside the Bella Center in Copenhagen at the end of the COP15 UN Climate Change Conference.

Did you like it? Share it

Read more »

Say "cheeeese"!

This past September, when nearly all the world’s leaders were in New York for a meeting of the United Nations, Platon, a staff photographer for the New Yorker, set up a tiny studio off the floor of the General Assembly, and tried to hustle as many of them in front of his lens as possible. The project involved months of work. While immersed on it, some as Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu fell on the main rule that rulers have asked their photographers and painters for centuries: “Make me look good”.

Results finally are here. I don’t know if Mr. Netanyahu will be pleased with his picture, but there are indeed a few interesting points in the poster. Like for example, seeing together Gordon Brown (UK) and Brian Cowen (Ireland), who look like brothers. And in fact, even their political careers are very similar: both are in a shaky chair after substituting a troubled former leader, and coming from managing the Economics portfolio.

Standing with Cowen, just below is the Czech president Václav Klaus. Surprisingly, it’s not the only time the Czech has been behind Cowen; he signed the Lisbon Treaty -introduced the past Tuesday- only after Ireland passed it. The third one in the mess of Lisbon, Polish President Lech Kaczynski, is also around close to them.

But that’s not the only funny relationship. Ahmadinejad (Iran) and Chávez (Venezuela) are really close too. The same as Netanyahu (Israel), who is on the right of Obama (USA); left for us seeing the poster. Of course, Berlusconi is in the area where all the women in the collage are. Odinga (Kenya) on the other hand, is more reluctant of Kagame (Rwanda), who he observes with caution. And finally, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero (Spain) only needs a beret with a red star on his head to look like ‘Che’ Guevara.

The original poster with more info, here.



Did you like it? Share it

Read more »

Definition of "scary"

Did you like it? Share it

Read more »

Friendly fire 19/10/09

Going green to be greener.

Iran to Russia: where are our missiles?

NK boosts its special forces.

In honor to Jordan: no more 23s.

Sarah Palin still on the frontpages. Literally.

Did you like it? Share it

Read more »

Down with the wall!

Today marks the 20th anniversary of the fall of the wall in Berlin. The end of the “Mauer” was also the end of an era and reshaped not only Berlin and Germany but all Europe.

Today as well in Palestine, around 300 demonstrators gathered in the town of Ni’lin to protest against a present wall, the one built in the West Bank by Israel allegedly to protect themselves against terrorist attacks. The demonstrators managed to topple one of the eight meters high concrete portions of the wall. Here is the video.




Did you like it? Share it

Read more »

Remember, remember...

...the fifth of November.

Never better than today, fifth of November, to comment the polemic surrounding the BNP in the UK right now. The British National Party (BNP), a far-right party whose baselines are many “anti-“ policies (anti-Islamist, anti-homosexual, anti-immigration) had last week its fifteen minutes of glory and a few more in the British public television. The program was watched by over 8 million viewers and critics poured over the BBC soon after the broadcasting.

It all started way before the interview to BNP’s leader, Nick Griffin, was aired. Several anti-fascist protesters even breached the security of the BBC trying to cancel the program. Politicians from all the political spectra protested energically on how the public broadcaster could give time to a party that has been accused of racist, homophobic and even of being connected to Nazi and paramilitary organizations.

None of that stopped Griffin’s train. The BNP leader had his time to explain why denies the Holocaust, why he is against Europe and why he doesn’t consider London an English city anymore because of the immigration -he may be right on that.

Results to the interview came immediately. Apart from an ego boost for Nick Griffin -as if he needed it-, BNP increased considerably the intention of vote. In a survey carried over just after the program, a 4% said they would "definitely" consider backing the party, 3% who would "probably" consider it, and 15% who said they were "possible" BNP voters.

To put some perspective to that, let’s say that the BNP had in 1995 a 0.7% of the votes, but has had an ascending trajectory since then -last summer they got their first ever seats in the European elections. From the party office, they say that the night of the interview they had a record high in recruitment, with over 3,000 people who called to register in their lists.

That’s why, before this perspective, I cannot pass without remembering the fifth of November and V’s speech in the film “V for vendetta”.




Did you like it? Share it

Read more »

Obama an the secret warehouse

So this is warehouse shown in Indiana Jones IV where the US keeps the Arc and all those treasures. I guess.



Via the White House flickr account.


Did you like it? Share it

Read more »

Friendly fire 05/10/09

- Polling round: The Yes wins in Ireland. The Socialist Party wins in Greece. And Rio defeats Chicago, Madrid and Tokio in the race for the Olympics.

- Should Roman Polanski be above the law?

- While waiting for the 2009 Nobel Prizes, here are 2009 Ig Nobel Prizes.

- Seriously, what's wrong with Asia? Earthquakes, floods, tsunamis...

- Israel, in Honduras too? Unlikely.


Did you like it? Share it

Read more »

Irish posters (Lisbon version)

We already knew about Irish predilection for weird posters. These elections weren’t going to be different, and Coir has taken to the streets a whole bunch of colourful lies in posters. Sometimes, it’s difficult to distinguish them from the fake ones. Guess which ones are fake from these:










Solution
Fake: no. 1, 4, 5 and 7.
Real: no. 2, 3 and 6

In the Yes side there is some creativity too. Here is the poster Generation Yes organization -mostly formed by college graduates- has outside the Tripod club:





Did you like it? Share it

Read more »

The moment of truth for Ireland

Tomorrow is the big day for Ireland, as it’s been sold by the two partisan sides of the battle being fought for almost two years now. Tomorrow, Irish voters will go -for the second time in 16 months- to the polls to decide either if they approve or not a referendum to amend the constitution and therefore, allow their government to sign the Lisbon Treaty. Stakes are at their highest.

In June 2008, a first referendum was already placed and the answer then was a big “No”. A second vote was then placed to secure the approval of the text. This time, Taoiseach Brian Cowen has warned that there won’t be a third referendum if the voters decide again to reject the treaty. It’s then understandable why the battle for the “Yes” and the “No” has been cruel and fearless, especially during the summer and as the D day approached.

The main parties -Fianna Fail, Fine Gael, Labour and the Green Party- are campaigning for the “Yes”. But the situation in the Green Party is a clear mirror of what Irish society is going through. To approve a campaign for the “Yes” it was needed a two third majority vote, and in the assambly where they decided it they got exactly that. Not a vote under or over the two thirds, but exactly that. And that’s how tight the polls are expected to be too tomorrow.

In the “No” side are the Sinn Fein, the Socialist Party and the quite new Libertas Party. This one has been the biggest supporter for the “No” vote. Declan Ganley created the party ahead of the last European Elections as a Europhobic party, mirroring those already operating in Britain. Unfortunately for Mr. Ganley, the party he created failed to secure him a seat in Brussels and he left the party soon afterwards.

For most of the summer, Mr. Ganley has been quiet -too quiet, some may say. This wasn’t his decision. Mr. Ganley has strong ties with US businesses, and his American partners told him to please shut up. So he did it. Until last week when he couldn’t be quiet anymore and warned that Lisbon would be a “catastrophe” for Ireland. Of course, in all his interventions when talking against about Lisbon, he cared a lot to not upset his American partners. Like in this video, where he hides an American flag under the table before an interview with a German TV. All for the sake of the Americans.

In fact, all the American Chamber of Commerce is lobbying for the “Yes”. Last August, the firms in the IFSC (Dublin’s financial center) received an information pack supporting the “Yes” vote. Also, a poll from the Irish Times showed that 90% of the foreign businesses -mostly Americans- with presence in Ireland would encourage their workers to vote “Yes”. For them, a two-speed Europe, one under Lisbon rules and the other one out of them, would have a disadvantaged outcome for Ireland market.

That two-Europes fear is used too by the “Yes” campaign to inspire fear on the voters. There is a huge concern among the Irish establishment that if they fail to pass on Lisbon, Ireland will fall again under the umbrella of influence of the UK. Europe has been traditionally the place to look for Irish nationalists trying to escape the British influence. But if the Tories win in the UK in the next elections and the “No” vote prevails in Ireland, a new front might surge in Brussels that effectively will create two Europes: the mainland, at full gas; and the British Isles, at a slower rate.

But if it is about scaring, then the “No” side is the winner. Summer polls were showing a 54% of voters inclined to the “Yes”. That made many people in the “No” camps get very nervous, especially those in Coir. They are a lobby group, claiming to be independent, but with strong ties with several conservative associations. For instance, Coir operates from the same headquarters as the pro-life groups Youth Defence and the Pro-Life Alliance.

On August 29th, Coir started an aggressive poster campaign, followed by others like the Sinn Fein, supporting the “No” vote. The campaign is so aggressive that they have received huge criticism for the lies included in their posters. But despite that, their campaign seems to be working. Last week, support for the “Yes” vote was 8 points lower than during the summer, at a 46% and going further down.

However, part of it is to blame to the raise of taxes, the cuts and NAMA, the government plan to rescue Irish banks launched after the summer that the Greens have tried to delay until after Lisbon. As it happened in the first referendum, most of the “No” voters are not voting that because of European affairs, but as an internal issue; just to punish the Government -whose two members, the Green Party and Fianna Fail are campaigning for the “Yes”. It looks like the longer this campaign gets, the worse it will be for the “Yes” camp.

As for the final results, tomorrow we will know the outcome. Some Irish voters have already gone to the polls, like the seven inhabitants of Inishfree Island, off Donegal, and their neighbours in Arranmore, Gola, Inishbofin and Tory Islands. And for now, even before the voting starts, and to continue the tradition of Iran and Afghanistan, there are already problems of fraud with the voting cards.

Coir Lisbon posters over the M-50 in Dublin


Did you like it? Share it

Read more »

Photoshots

Last week's meeting of President Obama with the world leaders in the Met in New York has gifted with some photos. Quite a lot, as everyone wanted to be on the photo with the coolest kid in the block and his wife. Sometimes it is just a reminder on how international politics are made.

Like this photo with Teodoro Obiang Nguema, the President of Ecuatorial Guinea. If you have oil, it doesn't matter how many human rights you don't respect.


Of course some of them are just hilarious. Like this one from the President of the Republic of The Gambia. Anyone can tell me what that guy has on his hands?

Others were such good photoshop material that had to be removed from the library. Like the one from President of Spain, José Luís Rodríguez Zapatero and family. Don't look for it in the general index; it was already removed:

While Zapatero's family might be frightening, other's families you'll love to invite to your house. Specially the daughter of the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Lao People's Democratic Republic. I want to believe she is over 18:

By the way, if all those guys had just made a couple of shots with two statues resembling the Obamas, no-one had noticed the difference. Both Michelle and Barack look almost the same in all the shots.

And having such tall hosts like the Obamas, it's funny how some guests appear really small. Like the President of the Republic of Nauru:

Or the President of the Federal Democratic Republic of Nepal, who tries to hide the height difference with a hat (epic fail):

Of course, there is the opposite situation with the big Emir of the State of Qatar. In that jacket, can fit at least two Obamas.


Who said politics is boring?

Did you like it? Share it

Read more »