From time to time we
hear about the imminent threat that Iran posses to the West. It is usually coming
from Israeli or the US. Being Iran as cheeky
as it usually
is when it comes to its nuclear program, this shouldn’t be a surprise.
Like in a game, the
IAEA inspectors and Iran are constantly playing out each other. So far Iran
wins. They managed to fool the International Agency several times and with a
wide array of tricks. Either by undisclosing secret
facilities built buried inside a mountain or plain
lying about the program, they have earned a reputation of dishonesty.
Yet the constant
nagging about Iran meets always strong arguments against that premise more
often than not. In fact, it is usually within the US Pentagon that we get
reminded that Iran is not a threat, nor it will be in a near future.
We have so many eyes
on the country that building up enough uranium to make a bomb under our noses
would be impossible. More precisely; it would be possible, but we
would know it.
If that was the case
and Iran decided to go ahead and set hell loose, it still wouldn’t be a matter
of a blink
of an eye. It would take at least a year for that to happen. The last few steps made by the Persian country set them back
rather than forward.
Ahmadinejad talking nuclear/Reuters
Even more, according
to analyst Meir Javedanfar from The
Diplomat, building a bomb could be a bad move for Iran. Unlike North Korea,
who has made of isolation and nuclear
diplomacy an art, Iran needs the world and does
not need a bomb.
Actually, getting a
bomb would mean more sanctions for the country. For an oil-exporter like Iran, difficulties
to export oil are very damaging for its economy. And sanctions are amongst the
biggest difficulties.
This scenario would
mean a bigger strain on the already weak economy of Iran and a more discontent
population. That, trouble at home, is what North Korea doesn’t have to worry
about but Iran does. And it is what ultimately would deter Iran from seeking
the bomb.
It is interesting,
however, that while the rest of the world is forced to comply with the
sanctions, a selected group of countries are allowed by the USA to bypass
that and get the much needed Iranian oil.
Syria has become a broken toy
no one wants to get their hands on. Truth be told, the situation has escalated
and it is way more complicated now. What used to be black or white has now
dozens of shades of gray in between. The Balkanization of the conflict has
derived in a war with dozens of splinter cells with targets too different
between themselves.
There is no more a homogeneous
opposition. Some groups want to oust Assad. Others just want to defend their neighborhoods.
The Kurds are happy taking care of their own business watching the rest killing
themselves. And then there are the ones looking for a Yihad. For those ones,
the -theoretically- socialist and laic regime of Assad is as good as a target
as anything else.
That is why steps are given
carefully. Slow and shy attempts on all sides. Take for example Russia, who
started championing Assad. Now they are rather looking for a golden retirement
for him and his family in a third country.
We have as well the Arab
states of the Gulf. They are between a rock and a hard place. On one hand they
would love nothing more than getting rid of Iran’s friend in the region. On the
other hand, they are frightened a revolution like that could caught them at
home.
In a similar place is Israel,
whose is irritated by Assad but fears who could come after him. They have the
bad experience of Egypt, where Mubarak was a manageable leader that didn’t give
them too many problems. Things have changed with Morsi, if only on the public
arena.
The last one to risk a move
has been the USA, announcing they will help directly the Syrian opposition. With
a clear red line: no weapons or training. Just medicines and food to avoid future
problems.
The Americans don’t want
another Afghanistan or Libya. In the former they helped the Taliban; in the
later they helped the Gadaffi opposition. Both groups turned their backs on
America, one of them in a war still going on, the other one with the attack on
Bengazhi’s embassy and Mali.
The Syrian opposition however
thinks that all that about food and medicines is good intentions but nothing
more. A video uploaded to Facebook shows how much they esteem the help provided by Washington.
However, the lack of a
pipeline of weapons from the West isn’t stopping Syrians of getting armed. Recently
some images of what looks like Chinese
surface-to-air missiles appeared online. How they got there is a mystery. But
even without sponsors, Syrians have demonstrated a high dose of imagination. One
of them is a Playstation-controlled
tank they created out of scrap pieces. That is bringing the game of Libya to a whole new level.
France and the UK have been trying to solve that. They are the top supporters of lifting an EU-embargo on Syria. They are even considering going freelance and arm the rebels themselves, even if that means defying the European Union.
Several Gulf states, however,
keep funding and arming rebel groups. Qatar
and Saudi Arabia are among them. This, again, could turn counterproductive in
the end for the Americans. Without a direct control on the arms pipeline, those
weapons could end up in the hands of groups that aren’t so worrying for those
Muslim states, like al-Nusra. And this would be the same problem all over
again, only that way closer to strategic allies like Israel.
Once again, a ship loaded of guns seized by Israel is on the frontpage. But this time the Jewish country is not accusing Iran of being the end of the trail, but the beginning. Israeli commandos seized yesterday a freighter off the coast of Ciprus, in international waters. The cargo ship was loaded with small guns and rockets that Israeli authorities say were destined to Hezbollah. Of course, immediately the domino effect invaded the Middle East.
Israel accused Hezbollah of being the final destination of the cargo. Hezbollah denied it. Israel accuses Iran of being the ones who sent it -and just in case, accuses too Syria of being the receptors. Both denied it. Israeli PM, Binyamin Netanyahu, accuses Iran of crimes of war -how lightly Israel accuses others of that and how hard is to get them to recognize their own crimes- and sees the guns as a new wild card against Tehran. The ayatollahs tell Bibi to fuck off and get a life. And here it goes again.
In fact, many Arab commentators have said that what Israel is doing is actually just a diversion to distract the attention from the Goldstone report. But this comes as well at the same time that Hamas test fires a rocket capable of hitting Tel Aviv. The rockets are, according to Israel, a technology transfer from Iran and Syria. And there, there it goes yet again.
Truth is that Israel is not a saint, but neither are Iran nor Syria. And the most frightening of all is that all of that -Goldstone report, arms smuggling- might be true.
A few months after the clashes in Tehran and Urumqi, first sentences to those detained then are now arisen. And they aren’t good news. In fact, nine people have been sentenced to death in the two countries. The motivation for both clashes was different, but the repression and the punishment don’t vary at all.
In the country of the Ayatollahs, at least three people have been sentenced to death. High concerns surround these sentences, especially because is unsure how the testimonies that conducted to them were obtained. Amnesty International and other groups have asked for more transparency in the whole process -with little or no response from Tehran.
The concerns grow when someone looks at the figures given by the government and the ones obtained by other groups. From the two dozen deaths that the government accounts to the two hundred that some organizations count, there are a lot of people missing in between. And for the families of those officially missing, or now under trial, the fear of the worst is always there.
Fear is precisely what many analysts think Ahmadinajad’s government is trying to achieve. By making an example of them, some say, Iranian’s government is trying to silence the opposition movement. And the three current death sentences may be just the beginning. The voices asking for more blood have long been heard since even before the beginning of the conflict.
In China at least the numbers are known. 197 killed and more than 1,600 injured. The controversy is not that much about how many died in the clashes but about how many of them were Han and how many Uighur. That about those already dead. About the ones now sentenced for that, six of them have received death penalties while another one got a life sentence. The names of all of them suggest that they are all Uighur.
Nothing is easy when Iran gets in the middle of it. If last week we were told that Ahmadinejad was in fact a Jew, now Iran accuses the US and Saudi Arabia of kidnapping one of his most important scientists in his nuclear program. Let me express my doubts about the first -Ahmadinejad a Jew? Sure, like Hitler a gay- and my curiosity for the second issue…
The discovery of a secret Iranian centrifuge facility near Qom has been a major blast in International politics during the past week. It surely surprised Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who didn't expect that question coming out in an interview with Time Magazine -the expression on his face when listening to it (Ahmadinejad had no need of translators to understand that) says it all.
But also shocked the world. For months, international community focused in the possibility that Iran could low-enrich enough amount of uranium and then kick out the IAEA inspectors and upgrade it to a bomb level. This however, changes that scenario.
Not for all, has to be said. Some, like Nathan Hodge from Danger Room, are delighted now getting some weight off their chest by saying the old “I told you so”. They predicted this long time ago. As he noted, if the Iranians are to “build a bomb, they will do it someplace else. Like Qom”. The new facility (still far from operative) can be used as well as a backup for the existing in Natanz or as a training facility -or viceversa.
But back to the present scenario, every day seems more likely an attack on Iran by the end of the year. Israel has stated clearly in the past -last time was today- his intentions to bomb any threat coming from the Ayatollahs, and has been preparing the road for itself and the world for when it happens. But Israel pretensions have encountered always Washington’s opposition.
Until now. It’s believed that the revelation of the plan by Iran to the IAEA in a vague letter was made because the secrecy of the plant had been compromised. That came from the American, British and French secret services. Immediately, in the G20 summit Obama said that although their diplomacy offer remained on the table, none other options had been ruled out. That, although unlikely, includes the military option.
With the US now more inclined to support Israel, the threat for Iran is clearer. However, if there is a major swift in here is concerning Russia. China still is reluctant to impose more severe sanctions to the Persians. The Russians, however, after knowing of the secret facility -and after the withdraw of the American missile shield in Europe-, have slowly joined the European countries and America on their demands on Iran. And having the Russians on Israel’s side is a huge improvement for the Jews.
The major concern for Israel has never been America’s approval or strategic geo-political complicated outputs. It’s been internal problems, their own pilots’ safety and logistical problems. Their worry for the sold of Russian S-300 surface-to-air missiles to the Persian state -which could diminish their chances in an air attack- has even surrounded the mystery of the Arctic Sea.
Later on that incident, Binyamin Netanyahu, Israel’s Prime Minister, made a secret trip to Russia. No-one knows yet what Bibi did in Moscow. The Israeli media didn’t even know about the trip until a week after; not even the embassy staff in Russian capital knew about it. But it’s more than likely that it had to do with the S-300 missiles.
Now, providing Russia opposes too to Iran and joins the group of four (USA, UK, France and Germany) -unlikely- and Iran finally doesn’t get the weapons -more likely and enough for Israel-; the US approves the operation; and the green light from Saudi Arabia; it will clear the road for Israel.
Iran’s only option now is stop playing and coming clear -some steps made- or make a demonstration of force. Obviously, they’re going for the latter, even unintentionally.
For the past three days, the Revolutionary Guards have tested their arsenal of short, medium and long range missiles, including the Shahab-3, with a 2,000km range and capable to hit Israel. Some of the tests were delivered on Sunday, coinciding with the Jewish holiday of the Yom Kippur. Well, at least you cannot say Iranians aren’t concerned about Israelis. If Yom Kippur is all about suffering, they got a lot of people suffering of stress that day. Also in Europe.
- Kidnapped British journo freed in Afghanistan. Local translator and British commando, dead. Debateover releasing information of kidnapped people, heating up.
- Report: Most Gazans killed in Cast Lead war were civilians. Nothing to worry: Israel gains support in Europe, even in the anti-semite Spain.
Iranians might have learned the lesson from North Korea. No, we don't talk about the NK cargo ship loaded of weapons seized while heading into Iran. We talk about Kim's negotiation skills: mess with the West and then offer them a sweet.
For the past year, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s cabinet has been messing around with the USA and other Western nations about their nuclear program. The official line stated that it was merely for a civilian use. However, the secretism of the program itself, the banning for the IAEA inspectors and the constant improving of Natanz, Shiraz and Isfahan plants suggested something different.
This week, the UN published a report where they open clearly for the first time the door for the possibility of Iran working in a military nuclear program. It’s the same Israel has been saying for years, but when you are Israel and constantly are calling wolf, you might be unheard. The UN, that’s different: they never speak; if they do it, it might be something there.
The IAEA doesn’t state firmly that Iran is working in the weaponization of uranium. It contains a “maybe”, but it is a big “maybe”. That’s enough for Israel, though. The problem is the focus Israel gives to this problem: now links a solution to the settlements in the West Bank to the Iranian nuclear program, as it they have anything in common.
Netanyahu’s madness with this goes further. Bibi compared the Iranian bomb with Auschwitz. Great timing, just when half the world remembers the 60th anniversary of the beginning of WWII.
Obviously Europe is not in the same trail, but the most surprisingly event came from an unexpected actor: Germany. The Holocaust left a deep scar in Germany’s memory that has been trying to wipe out by supporting actively Israel. That’s why many were surprised when Merkel answered to Netanyahu to forget about Iran and freeze the settlements.
Back to the nukes, in Iran this report hasn’t been welcomed. Iranian representative to the IAEA, Ali Asghar Soltanieh, told the AP he found the report "very frustrating," and angrily suggested that U.S. intelligence was working to undermine Iran's credibility. Indeed, tougher sanctions against Iran have been discussed today.
But following North Korea’s steps, here is the sweet: Iran has opened the door for a new “nuclear proposal” and is ready for new nuclear talks.
In the aftermath of Iran’s Presidential Elections, Khamenei positioned himself in line with the hardliners. He probably linked his fate to that of Ahmadinejad and flamed on the protests.
Now he just turned his back on the hardliners and denied any foreign hand behind the leaders of the opposition and left them just as involuntary puppets of a long orchestrated charade of the West.
So, what now? The main accusation against the dozens of detained that are now under trails is of being agents from foreign powers -specially Britain and the USA- acting in Iranian soil to destabilize the country. If the Supreme leader diminishes those charges, what about those detainees that recognised under detention they were acting for foreign agencies? What made them say that?
Torture, anyone?
Photo: Reuters TV/REUTERS
All posts on the Iran Presidential Elections 2009 published in Worldwide, here.
I’m not too eager of stopping working for long (journalism is more a lifestyle than a business, although others may have a different opinion). But sometimes it’s good to take a break. And that’s what I’m going to do from today.
Meanwhile, here are the main issues to follow during the next two weeks:
- Iraq: No more multi-national task force in Iraq. Instead, from today on, it will be just a sole force of one country, exclusively American.
- Iran: Yesterday was the 40th day anniversary of Neda Soltan’s death. Tehran saw again thousands in the streets mourning those killed in the repression by the government forces. And the Basiji, again, fought them back violently. At least 20 people died during last month post-electoral clashes.
But the scars are still fresh. An Iranian court urged the police to present charges against those detained (hundreds of them) and finally around two dozens will be prosecuted. Another prominent reformist was moved from his cell to a government house where he will be under house arrest.
It’s to expect a surge in the clashes again for the next weeks.
- Afghanistan/Pakistan: Helmand offensive still goes on. Yesterday, two British soldiers were killed and the casualty report doesn’t make anything but grow. The near Presidential election, due the 20th of August, promises a few busy weeks ahead. Karzai will win again, almost for sure, but his popularity is decreasing. The Talibans have already called for a boycott of the polls.
Meanwhile, in the southern country the drone wars go on. A recent attack killed, according to the CIA, one of Osama bin Laden’s son. The operations in Swat valley, carried on by Pakistani militaries with assistance from the Americans, have allowed thousands of refugees to go back to their homes, avoiding what could have been the worst refugee crisis since Rwanda.
But the Taliban menace persists. Pakistan signed yesterday a deal with Tajikistan to secure the region, cooperate in security matters and blahblahblah. So beautiful; the ‘Stans fighting together...
And just in case the Taliban weren’t enough trouble, a separatist group from Balochistan started to attack foreign aid workers in the area.
- China: The Uighur revolt still is on the frontpages. China revealed last week official numbers for killed and detainees. Detentions that today are still going on.
Also abroad. While the Chinese government was exchanging opinions with Obama and messages with Taiwan -both signs of aperture of the regime-, it was angrily criticizing the words of the Uighur exile leader and the projection of an Uighur documentary in a movie festival in Australia.
Australia, by the way, is engaged in another nasty diplomatic clash with China regarding a few wallabie employees of Rio Tinto detained in a spy case. The problem for those employees is that they revealed data from Chinese companies to their partners abroad. Data that is open source in China. This puts over the edge hundreds of consultants. What to do now? Where is the limit about what to publish and what not?
And if they survive that, still can be themselves into a collective illnes inside their company.
- Horn of Africa: With the comeback of somalian pirates, the region should have enough. There is even a new videogame about it. But this is Africa. There is never enough trouble.
Knowing that -or maybe collaborating to that- the USA has intensified his pressure over Eritrea and his support for the Islamist groups operating in Somalia. Yet a hypothetic deal sounds like a far dream.
Meanwhile, America plays a wild card strongening his presence in the area through the semi-autonomus region of South Sudan. Members of the newly created South Sudanese Air Force -no planes yet- were training this week in the USA. South Sudan is undergoing through a rearming process as the recent images of Faina’s tanks found in the region prove it.
- Rest of Africa: In Nigeria, clashes between Islamist militias and government forces in the north of the country left 150 deaths. The ambushes are still taken place.
In South Africa, newly elected President Zuma has abruptly ended his honeymoon with his voters. A massive strike shook the country during this week.
Meanwhile, a new campaign has been launched by a Namibian NGO. “Lords of bling” tries to remind the African leaders their promise to spend at least a 15% of the money in healthcare, a measure long forgotten by most of the African Union signers of it. The signer Akon has designed this song to remind that fact to the African presidents.
- Israel/Palestine: The settlements center the debate. International pressure grows as the US envoy to the region increases the talks too. Netanyahu agreed yesterday to destroy 900 houses in an East Jerusalem colony.
Inside Israel sensibilities around this are also changing. Some analysts consider Israel’s image abroad is being heavily damaged by the settlements (smart guy). Some settlers even are speaking out and admit they would leave in exchange for the money spent in their homes and similar conditions somewhere else inside Israel. Some others, not so.
What doesn’t change is Netanyahu’s hawkish government. The last idea is askdemand the Netherlands and the UK to stop giving funds to the NGO Breaking the Silence, who has done some research of alleged Human Rights violations in Gaza by the IDF. Next will be to point European governments how they should spend their money.
And meanwhile the Netanyahu’s government asks Holland and the UK to stop funding pro-Human Rights NGOs, their allies from the far right ask the IDF soldiers to cover up for the abuses committed in the West Bank.
On the northside, the IDF has been put on alert after Lebanon forces were movilized too. However, Israelí officials consider unlikely a reedition of 2006 Hezbollah-Israel war, specially now with so many international forces in the zone.
On the other hand, in Gaza, Hamas starts to apply their particular vision of government. Up until now, Palestinian women could consider themselves lucky. I was actually talking about this recently with a Palestinian friend. While Saudi Arabian women cannot drive a car or meet with strangers, Palestinian women can do that and even wear trousers, the head uncovered or -if they want, and also the men- buy alcohol.
All that could be about to change. A judge has ordered in Gaza to all the female lawyers to wear a head scarf. It is just an example of many more that are showing Hamas’ Islamist hand in Gaza. Like restrictions with alcohol or the new religious police. Here an Al Jazeera video on it:
- Latinamerica: Honduras’ political turmoil doesn’t look well. But at least negotiations are moving up. Slower than a sloth, but moving up. Zelaya is in Nicaragua’s border from where he visits periodically his supporters. Meanwhile the interim government is more and more in lack of support. Abroad, the USA revoked several diplomatic visas. Internally, the Army admitted the predisposition to accept a unity government with Zelaya in front. Last word is Micheletti’s.
Further to the south, Colombia and Venezuela are again fighting. This time, a few Swedish grenade launchers were the detonant of the diplomatic turmoil. The weapons, sold by Sweden to Venezuela, ended up being discovered in a FARC’s camp. After that, the usual crossfire between governments and Hugo Chavez’s usual recall of ambassadors.
And basically that’s all. Add some narco fights in Mexico and a political fight in Burma (Google this, I’m tired of linking news today) and you have enough to be busy for these two weeks I’ll be out.
So, until then... Be good, have fun, and don’t do anything I wouldn’t.
We already knew that Bush Administration did it bad. Really bad. We knew it already. But what we haven’t been able to see until the Republicans left the White House is how close they were to screw it up completely sometimes.
Now and then the press shows details of the incompetence of Bush’s team. Especially in the case of Donald Rumsfeld. A few months ago we knew Rummy was really close to blow up the mission in Afghanistan -and jeopardize American soldiers’ lifes there. Later, we learnt that he identified the occupation in Iraq as a Christian crusade, quotating the Bible to justify his decisions.
Saad was reportedly killed last week in Pakistan-Afghanistan border in a drone attack, according to the CIA. However, since 2003 he had been under house arrest in Iran. The Mullahs offered to handover Osama’s son, alive, to the Americans as soon as they knew who he was.
In exchange, Tehran wanted some of the heads of the terrorist group MEK, refugees in a camp near to Baghdad in Iraq. They are, by the way, the same ones that this week were ousted with violence by Iraqi security forces. They probably will face the expulsion from the country, but not to Iran.
Iran made the offer to Washington several times from 2003 to 2008, but the Americans refused it. Five years later, in late 2008 and after losing his value as bluechip prisoner, Saad and several other al-Qaeda commanders were released in the Pakistan border. A few months later, a drone operative who killed several civilians was needed to eliminate Saad.
- India gets into the selected club of Navies with indigenous built nuclear submarines. It’s just the frontline of what’s still to come, an improvement of the Indian Navy that will include an increase from the actual 140 vessels to the 170 planned. That includes two more nuclear subs and two indigenous carriers.
- Korea continues playing; now they accept to talk about their nuclear program.
- Sarko collapses while jogging. Did he saw a hot chick jogging besides him? Fortunately, it was all just a scarce.
- Obama starts pushing for a deal in the Middle East. Meanwhile, back at home, Sarah Palin resigns; but not without a fight.
- Iranian courts are pushing in favor of the detainees: their future must be decided within a week or be released. Ahmadinejad, may be busy for the last days of his government. Unless he has to quit over a confidence vote from the Parliament.
Just after a month of Neda’s death, Iranians came to the streets again. And again, the Basijis and the detentions were there too.
It’s not gonna be the biggest demonstration in the next few days. Probably, in a week and a half (when it will be the end of the duel period), in two Fridays, it will be bigger. But this, at least, shows Khamenei that his words are everyday less and less important to the people and Ahmadinejad that his reign won’t be easy.
Up until now, protesters had developed an underground boycott. Like the blackout of last night between 20.55 and 21.00 (local time) to remember Neda. Or the (unsuccessful) attempt to make a public blackout by connecting at the same time all the high consuming electronic items.
It has also continued -even though the house arrests and the house intimidations- with the night shouting from the roofs. Only that the initial “Allahu Akbar” (God is great) has become “Death to the dictator” and "Freedom".
But Ahmadinejad and Khamenei live so far away from their people that they don’t hear their scream. And that could be their end, specially for the latter.
The USA starts to be impatient about Iran, However, maybe that impatience has more to do with Israel push than with Iran itself.
Hillary Clinton, Secretary of State, warned Iran that Obama’s offer for dialogue won’t be over the table forever, waiting for them. However, Iranians have more to worry about now inside their own borders as recognizes even Obama. So, it doesn’t seem it’s gonna change in the next weeks.
Israel is something apart. They don’t follow the American way. Obama has asked Netanyahu to wait til the end of the year to see the reaction from the mullahs, but will they? The fact of the German intelligence services -the same Intelligence Services that screwed up with Iraq- saying that Iran can have the bomb in six months doesn’t help either. It’s not new (the possibility was already known by the CIA), but just a reminder of it allows the Israelis to push further.
Plus, the hawkish government in Israel never was willing to wait for so long. Last week, in a rare action during the day and on the surface, a Dolphin class Israeli submarine crossed Suez into the Red Sea. A few days later, two gunships followed him. All of them and specially the Dolphin are equipped with long range missiles for land attacks. The movement was seen as a pressure push on Iran.
Also, since months ago, Israel has been doing war drills among the population, military exercises and aerial tests. Even real operations, like the attack on a weapons convoy in Sudan at the beginning of the year, a mirror of what could happen in Iran. Also, Israel’s F-16 and F-15 have been remodeled to increase their action range and they have already fully tested the newly F-16I (pictured) with an action range even greater.
All this could be nothing by itself, but Saudi Arabia also has given a nod for the IAF jets to cross their air space for a raid on Iran. Probably the fact of the Saudis hating Iran even more than Israel has been fundamental for this decision.
On the other side, in Iran they have taken seriously an air attack threat. In fact, a month ago, an air exhibition was cancelled in the last minute under the fear of the Israelis launching an attack that could have eliminated completely the Iranian air power, then concentrated all in one point.
But although the provocation is real, the attack may not be so imminent. Apart from the technical complexity, there are the political issues, specially with the USA and the EU. An attack on the region could cause umpredictable consequences and America and -specially- Europe won’t be too happy to be in that position.
Europe has already realized that Israel doesn’t listen, never; and it’s not gonna support Israel. The Americans, on the other hand, won’t let Israel alone, but neither will they go to war with them.
This time, if Netanyahu wants to fire up the region, he will have to get the matches for himself.
Rafsanjani finally spoke. Ando f course, Iranian opposition has seen the street light again. Rafsanjani is considered the biggest support for Mousavi and, although in Friday’s speech he didn’t attack directly the elite or the government -in fact he talked more about unity- he did leave a few words for them.
He praised, for example, for the immediate freedom for the detainees, the end of the prosecutions and the acceptance of the “doubts” emerged in a part of the Iranian society after the elections. Nothing new, it is what many influential people like the Parliament speaker Ali Larijani have been asking for for weeks. Supporters of a full scale revolution will be disappointed.
But the important issue here is the own Rafsanjani. It’s been the first time HE said it. Up until now, all was about rumors: maybe he was in Qom collecting supporters, maybe he was uniting the clergy against Ahmadinejad -or Khamenei-; but all those were only rumors.
Until this Friday. In his speech, Rafsanjani charged against the bad atmosphere lived in the country, without naming out anyone specifically. He didn’t need to name anyone, however; as it was clear who was the receiver of his message. And he couldn’t charge against the system itself, because in the end, he is just another piece of the puzzle -in fact, some analysts think he is just preparing himself for the Supreme Leader chair.
His speech, however, settles that he cannot live without the system but Iranian system cannot live without him. The place where he gave his speech -the same where Ayatollah Khamenei gave his after the election-, in the University, and the fact itself of him giving the speech proves it.
But although maybe the system cannot live without Rafsanjani, the Government can. Normally, the Friday speech is live broadcasted by the state TV. Last Friday, however, none of the five channels did it.
It really didn’t matter. Rafsanjani’s public wasn’t at home in front of the TV, but in the streets. Several times he had to stop his speech because of the chants -some against the current leader, some acclaiming him as leader. His words were the sparkle that ignited again the protests in Tehran to show Ahmadinejad their detractors may be more silent but still they are.
Of course, Khamenei also still is and he warned again against the opposition to expect consequences if the demonstrations continue. But his warnings sound every day more like a desperate call to keep the chair rather than the calming words of a beloved father and leader of the country. Specially inside Iran.
The coalition government in Israel just celebrated its first 100 days. And to celebrate it, Human Rights Watch presented a report about possible war crimes committed in Gaza last winter. It’s not like if Netanyahu’s Government was in charge of the operation, but they surely supported it. And Ehud Barak, one of Netanyahu’s partners, was holding then the Defense portfolio. As he does now.
Yet, in the three months in charge of Bibi, Libi and Barak, few things have changed. For the latter it is understandable. He was already the Minister of Defense in the previous Administration, as he is still now. For him, is like if nothing has changed at all.
Well, just a small detail. Now he is too the unofficial Foreign Minister. Barak is the one in charge -together with Netanyahu- of the relations with the USA. What at first should had been a work for Lieberman, the real Foreign Minister, ended up in the laborist politician because of the radicalism and clumsiness of Libi.
Truth is that Lieberman must be the Foreign Minister with more free time in the area. Even though he is an Israeli. From his campaign promises, only the less important are accomplished or even started. Things such as start the meetings at 7 a.m. or make the Department more efficient. About the rest, nothing.
Nothing from the reception Egyptian president Mubarak was supposed to give Lieberman; he only has seen Cairo in the postcards from other government executives. Jordan still boycotts him and it was the president Shimon Peres who traveled to Amman and Cairo for him. His encounters with his European and Russian counterparts didn’t go better either.
But the worst case was the US-Israel relations. Nothing has he done but inflamme them with his periodical polemic quotes; or even acts. In fact, if we take into consideration the jokes from US senior diplomats, his relation with Hillary Clinton couldn’t be worse:
His meeting with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was described as a disaster. Clinton was reportedly offended by Lieberman's comments during the press conference and when she later accidentally fell and hurt her hand, Washington diplomatic circles joked that "she was pushed down the stairs by Yvet," according to a senior U.S. official, who referred to Lieberman by his nickname.
Up to now, the only visible project from Lieberman’s office has been Iran. In fact, in two weeks, the Foreign Minister will travel through Latin America to try to balance the influence of Ahmadinejad in the region.
To be honest, Iran also can be considered as the only serious project in all the new government. Or at least, the most advanced. Netanyahu and Lieberman have been for months (practically since they took the office) warning over a preventive attack on the nuclear posts in Iran. A match in a gas station that could be a disaster at many levels for the region.
Not something that worries Bibi and Libi. They share the same dream about a wipeouted nuclear Iran. And everyone thinking different can go to hell.
With that objective on mind, the Army has been training with drifts and aerial exercises and war games. The target in all of them was crystal clear -the Persians- and they didn’t even tried to hide it.
Last week a new scenario came across when it was known that an Israeli Dauphine class submarine crossed Suez on its way to the Red Sea from the Mediterranean, where usually are stationed. During the day and on the surface, visible to everyone -especially in Iran- to let the world know that the strategic arsenal of Israel was on route to the Gulf. Another alternative to add to the already known.
With this escalate, the US already warned Netanyahu they don’t want an attack on Iran. But according to Biden they won’t ban it either. This is, they don’t give green light, but neither they do a red light.
So the Iranian government, yesterday, responsabilized directly the US of any attack coming from Israel for not being tough enough with them. But the US are not the only ones, Saudi Arabia reportedly gave a nod to a possible skirmish on Iran. Back to the beginning of the three -now four- possibilities.
We have to count with the petition from Obama to Netanyahu -and not the opposite, as the Israeli media states- to wait until the end of the year to wait for results on the talks. Let’s see if Bibi can wait or if he pushes the US again downstairs.
4/15/2013
Ehiztari
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