The new old superpower (II)

As we said last week, China has all the ingredients to become a great power. It already is one at the regional level. But doubt remains about whether it can be constructed also as a real world superpower.

The traditional definition of superpower has been usually linked to a powerful army. And regarding that, China still has a long way to go.

In recent years and especially since 2011, China has prompted several major military projects. These include for example several types of aircraft under development, among which are especially relevant the J20 and J31.

These two prototypes make China, along with the U.S., the only other country which has two models of flying 5th-generation aircrafts. Russia, the third runner in possession of this technology, is developing only one model. The rest, none.

But nothing exemplifies a superpower more than its force projection capabilities. That's where come into the picture the submarine and aircraft carrier forces the Chinese navy (PLA) is developing.

Both platforms are the spearhead of any modern army. They are the ones that allow a country’s forces to be deployed rapidly anywhere in the world and until now it is what so far has lacked the Chinese army.

However the Chinese still have many years of development ahead of them to even get closer to the American potential, let alone surpass it. But the mere fact that they are providing the basis for this kind of military power has more than one brain concern in Washington.

In their favor plays something else. China doesn’t seem to want to follow the militaristic model of the United States and Russia. Surely its armed forces will continue to go abroad on an exponential basis as its influence grows. But mainly it will be for maneuvers and for humanitarian missions -something they could not do during the 2004 tsunami but learned in time for the disaster of Fukushima.

This strategy fits well with the soft power approach that China has historically exercised and exercises today in Africa, Latin America and Asia. A power that was tested in Libya, when it was forced to evacuate the large population of Chinese expatriates working there in the oil and gas industry.

The high demand for energy and resources has made China open to the world to find them. Mongolia, Australia, Venezuela and Uganda are among the countries that have benefited from Chinese soft power commercial contracts.

The case of the African country is particularly striking. In a country where until recently infrastructure was nonexistent, today you can make your way through the jungle in wide six-lane highways. Even Top Gear presenters were surprised when they saw them in the Africa special. It is the Chinese gift to Africa in exchange for their resources.

But China has shown it is also willing to play aggressively. And when we talk about today’s battlefields of economics and business, the aircraft carriers are the international companies and submarines are the rating agencies.

The Asian giant has also begun to enter with authority into these areas. Chinese companies have been for years expanding themselves into the Western market, either by geographical reach (like the introduction of Chinese goods in Europe) or acquisitions of Western companies (like the purchase of Volvo).

Meanwhile, back in May China established its first Chinese rating agency together with Russia to counter Moody's and S&P, both American and highly criticized, also from the European Union, for being biased and pro-US interest.

However, if the Asian giant is truly to become a globally dominant economy, it still has a lot of homework to do.

The main problem that China has is the same that has allowed it to create so much so fast: it is the country of the copy. Early in its development, copycats served the Chinese industry to get a head start. However, they have become accustomed to it.

A recurring theme among expatriates in China is the lack of imagination of local subordinates. They know to follow orders and they know how to copy, but they are unable to create and innovate.

Their initiative is reduced with a generation that has grown up in the shelter of not having to think about anything, just engineer retroactively or follow the instructions from blueprints purchased in questionable conditions or stolen from a foreign server. A lack of initiative that is worsened by the internet censorship.

Of course there are people who innovate, but the results are... let’s say that far from perfect. The best Chinese products today are still based on other foreign projects. When China becomes the lead of the pack, they will encounter a serious problem of innovation.

The rest of the world is now also better protected against copying. An employee of a Spanish aeronautical company told me how on a visit of potential Chinese investors they had to isolate them so they could not see or copy anything. They went as far as blocking office windows that faced the factory grounds and test labs and took off the network the computers the Chinese investors used.

The energy hunger problem, on the other hand, will curb the Chinese industry’s growth. Despite the large planned investment in nuclear power plants, to maintain the current level of production growth, China would need to increase by 50% the consumption of coal. Something that will involve both environmental and economic difficulties.

Also, many Chinese still believe today that the best future for their children is outside of China. Without a winning mentality in China, it is difficult to create a leader country. This extent is joined by the problem of an aging population that is going to be increasingly older. The one-child policy has endangered Chinese generational takeover.

Despite all this, and even if only because of its demographic weight, China is bound to have an important role this century. Their elites know this and they are preparing the ground with the military build-up. Meanwhile, America is in decline, running away from a world police role.

It is also happening on the political level; China is building-up influence, venturing into issues that had not mattered before to Chinese officials, like the conflict between Israel and Palestine. To interfere in a regional issue so far from its area of ​​influence is a clear sign of the dominant role that China is called to exercise. Whether America likes it or not.

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The new old superpower (I)

The decline of the U.S. as a lone superpower looms on the horizon. China comes pushing hard. Sometime between 2015 and 2020, depending on whose analysis you rely on, the Asian giant will become the world's largest economy.

In a time where soldiers have given way to traders and territorial invasions to company takeovers, that means power and control.

It has been a relatively short journey for China. Its economic evolution has been exponential in the last three decades. Back in 2003, China was the world's sixth largest economy. In 2004 it overcame France. In 2006 it was the turn for the United Kingdom to bite the dust. In 2009 fell Germany. And in 2011 Japan gave away the silver medal. Now only the US stands in the way to the top.

Today, China leads the ranking of population by country. But also in the number of internet connections, energy consumption per capita and the country vehicle fleet. These factors -its huge population and huge domestic market- are what have allowed the country to grow at an average rate of around 10% annually.

This growth has gone hand in hand with the Chinese increase in the life quality index. The Chinese live in general way better now than just a decade ago and have gained in that time what others countries accomplished over half a century. On average, their wages have grown too 10% annually since 2006.

Something similar has happened with the development of the industry. In twenty years it has seen a fast pace industrial revolution that in Europe and the U.S. lasted for over 200 years. Today it is the largest manufacturer in the world of all kinds of goods.

Contributing to this explosion was the massive rural migration to the cities. 120 million Chinese people have left behind the fields to sit behind machines at factories in huge new cities with the population of entire countries.

It also helps its industry that China controls the production of rare earth metals, essential elements for all kinds of modern electronic devices, from mobile phones to washing machines.

The economic boom and rapid development has brought unique situations. It has extremes that to the foreign eye cause shock and awe. As the good replicators they are, the Chinese took what they wanted from the capitalist system -the economy- and what they wanted from the communist system -the administrative organization- creating a quirky cocktail, which is unique and sometimes extremely wild.

The communist legacy makes the Chinese bureaucracy extremely dreaded, especially by expatriates working there. It is a mixture of communist-era rules and timid liberal openings as difficult to navigate as a maze. Moreover, that same mixed bureaucracy makes sometimes the capitalist economy to have to bend around stupid or wild assumptions, creating a result that is neither capitalist nor communist but a mixture of the worst of both.

A clear example of this are the nail houses. In the 60s, the communist government could expropriate land at will paying very low compensation. With the introduction of private property laws in 2007, the owners won some bargaining power. 

This led to stupid situations. Throughout China there are examples of residents who refused to sell their homes and builders built everything from shopping centers to roads around them. The results are simply surreal in most of the cases.

However, one of the things that the Chinese have learned to do extremely well is to protest. Sometimes their voices are heard, sometimes not.

In recent years, the environmental issue has been a continuing focus of protests: the depletion of aquifers, pollution of the air or the cancer villages are just a few examples.

Corruption, human rights and civil rights have been at the center stake as well, this last one a field where the artist Ai Weiwei has been its most prominent spokesman in recent years.

However, advances in both environmental issues and human rights and civil rights issues have been timid. The Chinese government considers both a collateral damage that it is willing to take if in exchange progress is achieved.

That is not the case with corruption, an area where Beijing’s government seems to be starting to consider more seriously.

Inside its own country, the Chinese government has been concerned to make clear to its own citizens that the global importance of the country has increased. The architectural mega-projects like the world's largest dam, the highest altitude railway or one of the longest bridges in the world have put China once more in the map.

But not only concrete jungles drive Chinese pride. Since it hosted the Olympic Games in 2008, China has come to control them in the arena in the latest edition in London. In addition, part military, part civilian, the Chinese indigenous space program is a feat that few countries can boast.

This increasing prestige has been joined with the increase in living standards. Higher wages have made the Chinese tourists the biggest spenders outside its borders and, therefore, the most desirable. But also be the most problematic ones.

China has all the ingredients to become a great power. It already is one at the regional level. But doubt remains about whether it can be constructed also as a world superpower. 

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China shows off the Liaoning

Photo: Xinhua

China announced on Saturday 24^th that it has successfully completed the first take off and landing sea trials on the Liaoning, its new aircraft carrier.

It hasn’t been an easy task but China is finally on track to become not only an economic superpower, but a military one as well. Although they still lag far behind the capabilities of American ships, the country starts to develop a characteristic of every superpower through History, the projection of force.

The announcement came just a day after the Philippines, Vietnam and Taiwan issued a formal protest for the new Chinese passports. The documents depict a map of disputed islands in the South China Sea as belonging to China.

With the Liaoning finally being able to launch aircrafts, China enters the selected group of ten nations that operate aircraft carriers. However, the road here hasn’t been easy and China is far from the finish line.

The milestone comes almost 15 years after the purchase and reconditioning of the Liaoning -formerly the SovietVaryar. In order to train the future Navy pilots, China built on land a replica of the flight deck of the ship. Trials at this mock-up began two years ago.

Still, most analysts agree that the new Chinese achievement will not translate in an immediate change of the power balance in the region. The most important part of an aircraft carrier, the air wing, is composed of J-15s -an enhanced reverse engineered version of the Russian Su-33.

Photo: Xinhua

The J-15 fleet is still too new, untrained and small. It doesn’t help either that the lack of steam catapults on the Liaoning forces the planes to take off with minimal loads of fuel and weapons.

In fact, the primary reason for the new Chinese carrier and the J-15 is not that much showing muscle but warming up. The Liaoning is to serve as a platform to train and test future developments of the Chinese Navy that may be years or decades in the future. The former Varyar and its air wing are only a step in the forward direction.

To that extent, there are signs that show that China might be working on something. For starters, a battle group. Beijing has spent billions of dollars in the development of a new nuclear submarine and an AEGIS-style destroyer. And to train the crew, China has increased its participation in recent international military operations far from its shores -like anti-piracy patrols in waters off Somalia, Chinese citizen's rescue missions in Lybia or 'soft power' operations in South America.

Furthermore, China is known to be the only nation -together with the US- developing not one but two 5^th Gen. stealth fighters, the J-20 and the J-31. The later one shows signs of being carrier capable -like a double wheeled front landing gear- and it is comparable to the much troubled and delayed American F-35.

For now, Liaoning’s milestone has given Beijing the opportunity to show off and the two pilots involved in the trials have become instant heroes. It is not about the capabilities of the vessels, but a matter of national pride similar to the indigenous space program. Indeed, state media has reported that the two pilots’ task of performing the trials was “far more difficult” than an astronaut’smission.

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Did we expect too much?

In the end, Copenhagen ended as Obama’s current approval rate: disappointing. The UN summit had from the beginning the same problem as the American President; too many expectations were lying on it to be accomplished. Some even copied Obama’s claim, from Copenhagen to Hopenhagen. But trying to achieve a global goal, with a global agreement, that has been delayed for ten years, in just a week; looked like a hopeless mission.

But yet some have extracted a few valuable lessons from the meeting. According to the Economist, ten years ago, in Kyoto, it was difficult even bring the developing countries to the table in order to talk. This time, they have been talking since the beginning. However, the main problem continues there (and will be there for long). The developing countries’ leaders -China and India- had led the ‘No’ group. In fact, many analysts blame China for the huge failure of Copenhagen.

According to a report from Mark Lynas, a freelance journalist present in Copenhagen, China “not only rejected targets for itself, but also refused to allow any other country to take on binding targets”. By putting pressure on Asian and African countries that depend on their trade with China, they blocked the deal. It’s the first punch of a new superpower, without military bases or the need to invade foreign countries.

Truth is, Africa and Asia didn’t need too much encouragement either to commit to China’s goal. Besides from the fact of the trade-related pressure from China, in Copenhagen, the main fight came from the demand of the developed countries -specially the Umbrella group- to the developed countries to commit themselves too to cut the carbon emissions. Meanwhile, the developing countries insist that much of the problem was caused by the developed countries, and they cannot sacrifice their technological growth just now. Or at least, not for free.

This might have had a reasonable point in 1990, when their emissions were half of the developed world. And it still might work for many African and Asian nations. But right now, China is the first polluter of the world and between them and the Indians, almost equalize the total carbon emissions of the developed world. It doesn’t matter now who polluted more in the past; what matters now is to stop polluting. All of us.

The problem for China is that, if they want to become a real superpower as the USA is today, they need that CO2 in the air. China's growth, and growing global political and economic dominance, is based largely on cheap coal. Their strategy is a long shot. They have the advantage of not having the NGOs and the ecologist groups putting pressure on them -it always goes to the US and the EU. Not even internally will have problems: they don’t respond before a strong public opinion nor they have to be elected every four years.


Photo: Olivier Morin/AFP/Getty Images.
Activists demonstrate outside the Bella Center in Copenhagen at the end of the COP15 UN Climate Change Conference.

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Friendly fire 07/12/09

- The risks of citizen and amateur journalists in war areas.

- Airbus A400M to take off. Finally.

- India concerned over China, Pakistan military "nexus".

- Israel's pro-settlement soldiers worry leaders.

- So, where the hell is bin Laden?


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After clash season...

A few months after the clashes in Tehran and Urumqi, first sentences to those detained then are now arisen. And they aren’t good news. In fact, nine people have been sentenced to death in the two countries. The motivation for both clashes was different, but the repression and the punishment don’t vary at all.

In the country of the Ayatollahs, at least three people have been sentenced to death. High concerns surround these sentences, especially because is unsure how the testimonies that conducted to them were obtained. Amnesty International and other groups have asked for more transparency in the whole process -with little or no response from Tehran.

The concerns grow when someone looks at the figures given by the government and the ones obtained by other groups. From the two dozen deaths that the government accounts to the two hundred that some organizations count, there are a lot of people missing in between. And for the families of those officially missing, or now under trial, the fear of the worst is always there.

Fear is precisely what many analysts think Ahmadinajad’s government is trying to achieve. By making an example of them, some say, Iranian’s government is trying to silence the opposition movement. And the three current death sentences may be just the beginning. The voices asking for more blood have long been heard since even before the beginning of the conflict.

In China at least the numbers are known. 197 killed and more than 1,600 injured. The controversy is not that much about how many died in the clashes but about how many of them were Han and how many Uighur. That about those already dead. About the ones now sentenced for that, six of them have received death penalties while another one got a life sentence. The names of all of them suggest that they are all Uighur.

Death penalty around the world

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Red rules

A compilation of newspapers' frontpages of the day after the big day in China. Red rules. Via GuerraEterna, via Danwei.




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Picture This: China’s Miniskirted Militia

Via Danger Room.



More photos here.


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Friendly fire 29/09/09

- Taliban to Germany: Leave Afghanistan or lose Oktoberfest. Now, that's a real threat!

- How easy is policying when you get along well with your partners. Angela Merkel is already doing so.

- China, 60 years of communism with a trademark.

- Fiji troops excluded from UN peacekeeping role.

- How to: Immunize against radiation: drinking vodka.



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Friendly fire 26/08/09

- How Poles struggle in Afghanistan.

- China cuts the supply of rare metals.

- One of the kidnapped French spies captured in Somalia, free. How? Well...

- Maybe the Russian freighter kidnapped in the Atlantic wasn't carrying just timber…

- The third man in Afghanistan's presidential elections (the ona Obama should listen to)





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Holidays round

I’m not too eager of stopping working for long (journalism is more a lifestyle than a business, although others may have a different opinion). But sometimes it’s good to take a break. And that’s what I’m going to do from today.

Meanwhile, here are the main issues to follow during the next two weeks:

- Iraq: No more multi-national task force in Iraq. Instead, from today on, it will be just a sole force of one country, exclusively American.

- Iran: Yesterday was the 40th day anniversary of Neda Soltan’s death. Tehran saw again thousands in the streets mourning those killed in the repression by the government forces. And the Basiji, again, fought them back violently. At least 20 people died during last month post-electoral clashes.

But the scars are still fresh. An Iranian court urged the police to present charges against those detained (hundreds of them) and finally around two dozens will be prosecuted. Another prominent reformist was moved from his cell to a government house where he will be under house arrest.

It’s to expect a surge in the clashes again for the next weeks.

- Afghanistan/Pakistan: Helmand offensive still goes on. Yesterday, two British soldiers were killed and the casualty report doesn’t make anything but grow. The near Presidential election, due the 20th of August, promises a few busy weeks ahead. Karzai will win again, almost for sure, but his popularity is decreasing. The Talibans have already called for a boycott of the polls.

Meanwhile, in the southern country the drone wars go on. A recent attack killed, according to the CIA, one of Osama bin Laden’s son. The operations in Swat valley, carried on by Pakistani militaries with assistance from the Americans, have allowed thousands of refugees to go back to their homes, avoiding what could have been the worst refugee crisis since Rwanda.

But the Taliban menace persists. Pakistan signed yesterday a deal with Tajikistan to secure the region, cooperate in security matters and blahblahblah. So beautiful; the ‘Stans fighting together...

And just in case the Taliban weren’t enough trouble, a separatist group from Balochistan started to attack foreign aid workers in the area.

- China: The Uighur revolt still is on the frontpages. China revealed last week official numbers for killed and detainees. Detentions that today are still going on.

Also abroad. While the Chinese government was exchanging opinions with Obama and messages with Taiwan -both signs of aperture of the regime-, it was angrily criticizing the words of the Uighur exile leader and the projection of an Uighur documentary in a movie festival in Australia.

Australia, by the way, is engaged in another nasty diplomatic clash with China regarding a few wallabie employees of Rio Tinto detained in a spy case. The problem for those employees is that they revealed data from Chinese companies to their partners abroad. Data that is open source in China. This puts over the edge hundreds of consultants. What to do now? Where is the limit about what to publish and what not?

And if they survive that, still can be themselves into a collective illnes inside their company.

- Horn of Africa: With the comeback of somalian pirates, the region should have enough. There is even a new videogame about it. But this is Africa. There is never enough trouble.

Knowing that -or maybe collaborating to that- the USA has intensified his pressure over Eritrea and his support for the Islamist groups operating in Somalia. Yet a hypothetic deal sounds like a far dream.

Meanwhile, America plays a wild card strongening his presence in the area through the semi-autonomus region of South Sudan. Members of the newly created South Sudanese Air Force -no planes yet- were training this week in the USA. South Sudan is undergoing through a rearming process as the recent images of Faina’s tanks found in the region prove it.

- Rest of Africa: In Nigeria, clashes between Islamist militias and government forces in the north of the country left 150 deaths. The ambushes are still taken place.

In South Africa, newly elected President Zuma has abruptly ended his honeymoon with his voters. A massive strike shook the country during this week.

Meanwhile, a new campaign has been launched by a Namibian NGO. “Lords of bling” tries to remind the African leaders their promise to spend at least a 15% of the money in healthcare, a measure long forgotten by most of the African Union signers of it. The signer Akon has designed this song to remind that fact to the African presidents.



- Israel/Palestine: The settlements center the debate. International pressure grows as the US envoy to the region increases the talks too. Netanyahu agreed yesterday to destroy 900 houses in an East Jerusalem colony.

Inside Israel sensibilities around this are also changing. Some analysts consider Israel’s image abroad is being heavily damaged by the settlements (smart guy). Some settlers even are speaking out and admit they would leave in exchange for the money spent in their homes and similar conditions somewhere else inside Israel. Some others, not so.

What doesn’t change is Netanyahu’s hawkish government. The last idea is ask demand the Netherlands and the UK to stop giving funds to the NGO Breaking the Silence, who has done some research of alleged Human Rights violations in Gaza by the IDF. Next will be to point European governments how they should spend their money.

And meanwhile the Netanyahu’s government asks Holland and the UK to stop funding pro-Human Rights NGOs, their allies from the far right ask the IDF soldiers to cover up for the abuses committed in the West Bank.

On the northside, the IDF has been put on alert after Lebanon forces were movilized too. However, Israelí officials consider unlikely a reedition of 2006 Hezbollah-Israel war, specially now with so many international forces in the zone.

On the other hand, in Gaza, Hamas starts to apply their particular vision of government. Up until now, Palestinian women could consider themselves lucky. I was actually talking about this recently with a Palestinian friend. While Saudi Arabian women cannot drive a car or meet with strangers, Palestinian women can do that and even wear trousers, the head uncovered or -if they want, and also the men- buy alcohol.

All that could be about to change. A judge has ordered in Gaza to all the female lawyers to wear a head scarf. It is just an example of many more that are showing Hamas’ Islamist hand in Gaza. Like restrictions with alcohol or the new religious police. Here an Al Jazeera video on it:



- Latinamerica: Honduras’ political turmoil doesn’t look well. But at least negotiations are moving up. Slower than a sloth, but moving up. Zelaya is in Nicaragua’s border from where he visits periodically his supporters. Meanwhile the interim government is more and more in lack of support. Abroad, the USA revoked several diplomatic visas. Internally, the Army admitted the predisposition to accept a unity government with Zelaya in front. Last word is Micheletti’s.

Further to the south, Colombia and Venezuela are again fighting. This time, a few Swedish grenade launchers were the detonant of the diplomatic turmoil. The weapons, sold by Sweden to Venezuela, ended up being discovered in a FARC’s camp. After that, the usual crossfire between governments and Hugo Chavez’s usual recall of ambassadors.




And basically that’s all. Add some narco fights in Mexico and a political fight in Burma (Google this, I’m tired of linking news today) and you have enough to be busy for these two weeks I’ll be out.

So, until then... Be good, have fun, and don’t do anything I wouldn’t.




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Riot season

With the coup in Honduras and the Twitter revolution in Iran, yesterday’s clashes in China were the last guest to the riot season party. And they came in with style -Chinese style. In Honduras, the numbers -non official- show two deaths. In Iran the numbers are around the two dozens. In China, are more than 150 and going up, plus hundreds of injured and detainees.

The origin of it is in an ethnic dispute between the Uighur Muslims, natives to the region, and the Han Chinese immigration. The latter has already overcome the first ones in the capital of the Western province of China, a natural cultural bridge between Central and Eastern Asia. Following the conflicts between the two groups, have inflamed the nationalist aspirations of the region.

This week’s episode was originated in a toy factory in the south of the country. A fired employee -who is now detained- started it by wide spreading a rumor about two Han Chinese women being raped by Uighur men. The rumor quickly got into a snowball and it ended in a fight between around 600 people from both sides, resulting in 2 deaths and 118 injured.

Outraged by it, the Uighur community called for a pacific demonstration that ended up in attacks against Han Chinese people. The clashes with the police were guaranteed. The scenes reminded to the ones lived before the Olympic Games or in Tibet. The final result is the worst ethnic revolts since the end of the Cultural Revolution in 1977.

The Chinese Government, experts on these fields and with Iran experience still fresh, quickly imposed a blackout in all the info on Internet about it. Censorship at home and blame abroad, Ahmadinejad’s style.

To be precise, Chinese government blames Rebiya Kadeer’s World Uighur Congress, an association created by the Uighur exilliated businesswoman in Germany, of being behind the violence in the streets. The Uighur exile, however, denies any implication and blames the Chinese for their repression during the past years.

I don’t know who started it, but anyhow, 156 casualties out of 3000 demonstrators are too many. Not even Ahmadinejad’s Basij militias matched those numbers.



Photo: CCTV


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Friendly fire 08/06/09

- Not only Europe goes to the polls. In Lebanon, a pro Western coalition wins the majority of the votes. Hezbollah however, still controls the streets.

- Bongo, Gabon’s president, dies in a clinic in Spain. After Castro resignation, he became the head of a state (not counting monarchs) that had been longer on power. Or maybe he still is?

- David Axe unveils why is not wise to guess about a war with China.

- Maybe I have to eat my words and McChrystal indeed means a real change for air support in Afghanistan.

- More than half of Kazakhstan uranium reserves (it’s the third biggest producer of uranium after Canada and Australia) have been stolen.



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Arms race goes east II (The Dragon wakes up)

2030 is also the date in red on Chinese’s agenda. By then, according to the graphics we have been seeing for a decade, they will be the first economy of the world, way upper than the USA. And of course, it’s expected that the military power will follow similar paths as the economic development.

But we don’t have to go so far. Today’s Chinese Armed Forces are a power to take in consideration. And even a step behind, the number of them and their inventiveness keeps them in the frontline. Well, maybe inventiveness is a bit excessive, as many progression is not theirs, but a copy of other’s work.

However, whatever they do, they are doing it well. In less than what was expected, they have jumped from third generation jets to the fourth (Europe and the USA have already their 5th gen. fighters, the Eurofighter and Raptor respectively; and Russia works in the details for his own fifth gen. jet). But we should note that they were helped by the Russians in this jump (not willingly, however). But the fact is that now, they not only have a plane more than capable of facing the Hornets, Eagles and Sukhois in an air battlefield, but also to plant battle in the markets. And a better positioning in the places where this kind of planes might interest (Asia, Latin America and Africa).

Also the Navy sails with full power. The construction of a medical ship in November, woke up all kina of rumors in the West. This kind of ships have two primary tasks: help the casualties from conflicts far from the homeland, or help with humanitarian aid operations. It may be that China, ashamed after being unable to help in 2006 after the tsunami in Thailand, is trying to solve that for the future. But neocons in Washington prefer to think it is because of the other option, much more sinister.

Something else starting to take off in China is the naval air power. Today, the Chinese are the only superpower without a carrier capability. That will change from now to 2030. The dragons have announced they plan to build between four and six mid-size carriers. Like as it happened with Iran, some analysts are already calling wolf.

Truth, however, is slightly different. Four, six or even ten carriers don’t present a big threat. Kyle Mizokami gives ten reasons why we shouldn’t fear the Chinese. Norman Polmar also uses similar arguments. But over all that, over the difference in quality, quantity and experience, it would be the fact of China being more likely a friend than a foe.

Much more dangerous than a few carriers looks the possibility of the Chinese modifying ICBMs to target Western carriers. They never have said so, but a carrier is the only target possible that meets the description of a “big mobile sea target”. Either is that or the golf ball. But again, although it may be scary, is not something worth to worry. Many nations, including Australia, the UK and India already have anti-carriers measures. But these kinds of weapons are considered more a defensive mean than an offensive one. So, unless the US plans to attack China (and they don’t), there is nothing to fear.

The most imminent threat to the Americans may come from Korea. As demonstrated this week, its nuclear program and its ballistic missiles program make them the biggest menace to region stability. But of course, Korea doesn’t need any kind of advertising, Kim il-Jong already does his job now and then to make sure everyone notices him.



Photo PLA

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Arms race goes east III (Australia and the guardians of the West)

Before this perspective, the traditional guardians of the West -although some Japanese may disagree on this- are rearming themselves too for what may come.

Japan, mentioned above, plans the biggest remodelation of their Armed Forces since World War II. Not only a material one, but spiritually and in essence. After WWII, as their name states, Japanese army is only an Autodefence army, just for defensive means and not expansive as the previous empire. But just a few years ago, Japan started to go abroad, always keeping in mind avoiding the direct combat, however. Now, Japan’s army has have presence in Iraq and Japanese navy sails the East coast of Africa to patrol the waters and keep them free of pirates.

Of course, we don’t have to go so far to find the biggest problem for Japan: Korea. The DPRK and its missile and nuclear programs represent a big pain in the arse in the backyard. That’s why the main expenses in Japanese defense budget runs along anti-missile systems. Japanese navy is the only foreign navy, together with the Spanish, that has the AEGIS system integrated in their ships. Japan also has a vast network of Patriot launchers defending the cities and strategic areas of the country. And it’s studying the creation of an early warning satellite network.

If Japan is Korea’s Cerberus, India is Pakistan’s. Like we said in the post before, the danger of an Islamist Pakistan in the hands of fanatics with nuclear weapons is a real nightmare. And in spite of American plans to recover the weapons, is better to watch our backs before it happens. That’s why the Indian army is re-enforcing itself heavily. Examples of this are the new Sukhois, new indigenous tanks (plus new T-90 Russian tanks), and two new carriers by 2010.

This expenditure, however, carries on some risks too. As we have said here in Worldwide before, India and Pakistan are playing a dangerous game in an arms race. An increase in India’s military budget may be seen in Pakistan as a new threat. And that may launch the Pakistan army into the hands of the Talibans. Even more than now.

And although India may be powerful, and Japan so, and others like Singapore, who is buying second hand Eagles, is irrelevant if compared to the combined power of the foes. And they lack of regional leadership and strength. Here is when it comes all to Australia.

The new Australian Defence white paper plans a remodelation of Australian armed forces from now to 2030. This would be the biggest -and more expensive- since WWII also for the Australians.

Priority for Australians, as said by their Premier, is to play the role of the USA in the Pacific. This is, becoming a regional superpower capable of facing China any potential risk and to defend themselves from a “direct attack”.

It’s surprising, however, to see Australia spending cash they don’t have, specially when the rest of the world is cutting costs everywhere. But truth is that, although maybe it won’t be possible to accomplish all the demands, Australia has a big relieve to his economy in his mining industry. Ironically, the main buyer is China. That allows the Australian run a bit faster than others in these economically confusing times.

To the increase in the Afghanistan expenditure, we have to add up a close co-operation with New Zealand. Australia also will bet for air power. Just last month, Mr. Rudd’s government announced they will buy more Super Hornets, more Growlers, upgrade the current fleet and up to 100 more JSF. Even the Raptor has attracted their attention (unsuccessfully).

However, the biggest push comes from the Navy, like other countries in the area. The submarine fleet will double the present size, from 6 to 12 -although there will persist the present problem of how to supply those subs with crew. It’s also contemplated the acquisition of a few surface ships, including 8 new frigates, a carrier and a few hundred choppers to supply them.

But is all this necessary? In Beijing no one sees this plan as a threat. And letting aside a few exceptions, neither the West thinks like that. As we said before, it’s more plausible to have China as a friend to count on (like with the six party negotiations with Korea) rather than as a foe. It’s worth then to ask if Australia really need such an expensive military bill in a so instable economic climate. But of course, it’s easy to say this when Iran, Pakistan, the DPRK and China are more than 10 hours away in a plane and not in your backyard.



Photo; Reuters

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And in the end, it flew away (but not so away)

In the end, Korea launched his rocket/missile. No-one had to intercept anything and the Third World War will have to wait for now. But it’s not clear if the Taepodong-2 (with or without its orbital payload) reached the outer space or not.

Propaganda from each side prays for different outcomes. PDRK says the satellite is already in orbit transmitting songs in honor of Kim Jong-Il and his predecessor.

Americans, however, maintain a different version. The rocket was fired, deployed his first stage but failed to separate from the second stage and felt into the Pacific Ocean. If that’s true, it would be the third fail of a Taepodong-2 missile. Final score (for now): Gravity 3 – Korea 0. These guys really suck.

But even if at the end the satellite is transmitting from a subacuatic orbit, Jong-Il still could be in position to celebrate it. So far, this launch at least was capable to separate the first stage. That’s much better performance than 2006 test, when the missile disintegrated less than a minute after launching.

And although the second and third stage couldn’t make it into orbit, providing that the telemetric from the rocket was sending correct data to base, now the Koreans will have plenty of data to analyze and check the problems.

Also politically, this launch rises the stokes for North Korea in an eventual negotiation about nukes or disarment.

But as appointed by the CNN, PDRK is still way far from being capable of suppose a threat to Europe or America. The payload in this launch (the satellite) was probably of about between 150 and 200 kg. A first-generation A-bomb (like the nukes tech the Koreans have) weights at least 1,000 kg. Too much work still to do.

Meanwhile, even alter the launch, the protests, the condemn from many world leaders –including Obama-, the UN is still unable to reach consensus on the matter. China is really working to calm down down everyone, indeed.



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G20: Veni, vidi... vinci? (Updated, again)

London was calling. The G20 arrived, saw it and... Well, about the winning, not so much. It was an easy forecast. London summit hasn’t solved anything. To be fair, it wasn’t meant to anyway. Is not a lot what you can achieve in just one day. Only -maybe- set up the rules for an economic recovery. And that, we will see if so.

Who has been seen -and heard- high, clearly and loudly have been the protesters who invaded London during the two days of the summit. “Remember, remember; the Fifth of November”. Like in Guy Fawkes’ day, like in “V for vendetta”. If someone achieved their goal filling up frontpages in the newspapers, they were the ones. With the invaluable help -some say- from the City police.

About the financial breackdown, not a lot. The Chinese arrived in the summit asking for more decision power in the IMF (without increasing their contribution) and a global currency. None of that had an echo on the rest of the participants. They also were demanding more aid to the Third World countries, specially those in Africa (where their flow of business increases exponentially every year). Here they got a negative and a reprimand from both the Africans, but also from the G20 leaders.

On the French-German side, Sarkozy and Merkel won the petition asking for a tighter supervision of the high risk inversion funds, the hedge funds. On the other side, they got (initially) no favorable response for a list of tax havens, but at least from now on they will have to be more transparent. It doesn’t seem like a difficult task. The difficult would have been to push them into being less transparent, that could have been fun.

Neither Obama -and Japan, and in a lesser way, Britain- got his demands fully accomplished. No global bailouts.

The IMF, on the other hand, will have a great portion of the cake. To be exacts, more than a trillion dollars. Half of it will be for the IMF itself, $250 billons would go into special funds like the ones that already supplied Iceland and Bulgary with money to bailout their countries. The rest of it, will go to ease the markets and trade. Oh, and a small consolation prize for Obama and Brown: another $5 tr. to spend until the end of 2010 in stimulus plans. Don’t say there is no money in the bank.

But however, the main comments were around the photos in the summit. First about the First Dames’ photo. It was almost impossible to make a complete photo with all of them. Of course, there were a few absences before starting. The star of the crew, Carla Bruni-Sarkozy, didn’t travel to London. Neither did the husbands of Angela Merkel or Cristina Fernandez de Kirtchner. And Sonsoles Espinosa (Spanish First Dame) didn’t appeared for the photos.

Then was the turn for the protagonists of the summit. Three times had to be shot the official photo until it came as it should. First, Canadian Prime Minister was missing. Then, it was Berlusconi the one missed. Finally, at the end of the afternoon, it could be made.

But back to the economics, let’s be optimistic. Maybe this is not “the day that the world came together, to fight back against the global recession” with “a plan” and a “clear timetable”, as Gordon Brown said. That is what the Premier wanted it to be and he couldn’t have. But at least, the basis for the new financial and economic rules are settle. Now, it is time to develop them.

Oh, and the Europeans finally made it to the photo with Obama. That’s important too.

What each one wanted and what they got.


Photo: The Guardian

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Update: There is already a "black list" of tax havens, made by the OCDE and shown via the WSJ. The habitual suspects like Andorra or the Cayman Islands appear on it. There is as well a "grey list" (Other financial centers) with Switzerland, Belgium and others on it.

Update 2: Berlusconi couldn’t make it to the photo group at first, but he got at the end another one much more interesting.


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Friendly fire 31/03/09

- Uncovered a Chinese cyber-espionage net. For now, it is impossible to determine if the Chinese government is behind it but between the sites affected by the spies are a few foreign embassies and NGOs.

- France announces the construction of a Pentagon a la francaise.

- Russia gets tough with the fight for the North Pole and creates an Artic Task Force.

- Dumb and dumber in the Occupied Territories in a race to guess who is worse: a young Palestinian orchestra is disbanded by the AP after playing for Holocaust survivors.

- Israel attacks in Sudan a convoy with weapons, supposedly, for Hamas. Meanwhile, al Bashir gets a 5 star holiday in Doha, defying the warrant from the ICC with the support from the Arabs.



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China's balancing acts

Chinese borders have seen an unusual increase of tension during the last week. Well, the unusual is not the tension; it is the increase in many fronts at the same time.

With the warrant from the ICC of The Hague over Sudanese president al-Bashir, came also a complicated gambling for the Asian giant. The business with the African country play an important role in China’s economy, but it implies a risky game involving Human Rights. Just in case everything goes wrong, Beijing announced this week a new deal with Iraq to be provided of oil.

Closer to home, North Korea has lightened up a few alarms. This time it wasn’t the worrying about Pyongyang’s nuclear program, but the increasing troubles with their southern neighbors. The trigger has been this time the joint war games that every year Seoul does with the USA. After the shut down of the direct communications between the two countries, it followed an increase in the rethoric of war, including soldier mobilizations and plans of defence. At the end it won’t reach to anything real serious, but for now China and Russia have already asked to both parties to take it easy and slow down the war machine.

The fact of North Korea testing a long range missile and launching a satellite doesn’t help, and worries both the US and Russia, this one asking for a space free of weapons.

Precisely with the USA China had another encounter during this week. The Department of Defense protested last Wednesday because a few Chinese boats shadowed an American unarmed ship, with civil contratists on board and in international waters. Apparently, a few rapid small boats and an intelligence slip approached the American slip -and a destroyer- with a provocative attitude. It is not clear if the provocative attitude was that the Chinese sailors lost their clothes and were doing obscene signs in their underwear to the Americans or it was something else.

Truth about the incident is not so clear. What the DoD is not telling us is that probably those ships were looking for submarines instead of mapping the sea bottom, as it was stated at the beginning. They have the equipment for that, and they are used for that. At the end, it seems that both Chinese and Americans are willing to shut down the incident for the greater good. The classical “I don’t show your dirt if you don’t show mine”.

Inside China, problems haven’t ended. To the risk of deflation and the corruption, this week joined the party the recurrent problem of Tibet, with protesters all over the world asking for the end of the occupation, lasting now for 50 years. Washington maybe accepted to shut up with the sea incident, but they won’t do it with this. And, obviously, Beijing didn’t like it. The banning of foreigners in the area didn’t help the image of China abroad. It appeared as an oppressor of Human Rights. And balancing acts with Human Rights is a risky gamble that China shouldn’t play.



Photo: Gopal Chitrakar/Reuters
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Africa

Last Sunday we knew of the paper written by Lt. Gen. Díaz de Villegas in January after resigning as Commander in Chief of the UN operation in Congo. Then many accused him of being a coward running away. Because of it, he lost his third star and was thrown into the forgotten realms of the reserve. However, a detailed read on the document reveals another truth.

Díaz de Villegas complaints about the lack of soldiers, the lack of foreseen and the lack of equipment that, according to him, made impossible to accomplish the tasks of the mission. His military code of honor made for him resignation the only option available if he didn’t want to risk the lives of the men under his command. The facts have given him the point: everything he predicted will happen, happened.

Africa is still a forgotten world for (almost) everyone. In the 90’s, the UN suffered probably the most painful shame on his history because of the late, inefficient and clumsy answer to the genocide in Rwanda. More than a decade after that, the blame is still going on, for different reasons but in the same part of the world and with a different background, as Lt. Gen. Villegas briefing reports.

It isn’t better neither in the north neither in the south of the Great Lakes region. In the south, Zimbabwe is a clear example of a failed country. With a Government under suspicion, more than a 94% of unemployment, inflation rising to more than 200.000.000% (that really is a poisoned sweet for Mr. Biti, leader of the opposition party and new Minister of Finance), the only thing that could make things worse was a cholera epidemic, that already has taken more than 3.400 victims. But, of course, Mr. Mugabe is over all that, especially on his birthday day.

In the north, things go a bit better. Not much, though. It’s a good idea to unite African countries under a political umbrella similar to that of the UE. But to try to get over such an empire by being crown as “king of kings” isn’t. It reminds us dangerously to those old dictators and emperors form previous centuries. But it is even worse if we try to head east into Somalia.

However, even if as I said before “almost” everyone forgets about Africa, there are a few that don’t. One of the biggest investors in Africa is China. The hunger of the Asian tiger for natural resources and the richness of the black continent make them perfect partners.

In exchange for oil, iron and other minerals, China invests in development. The boom of new technologies in Africa depends deeply in the work of Chinese firms, like Huawei Tech. Surely that name will appear in the new African tour Mr. Hu Jintao will made these days (the fifth one in five years since he was elected).

However, what China is doing in Africa isn’t anything but an updated version of the European pillage in previous centuries. Only the Magreb and South Africa escape (a bit) from that. In the case of the North of Africa, its close position near to Europe eases everything. For South Africa, the big opportunity will come with the 2010 World Cup. However, the racist incidents of a year ago –have they learnt from their masters?- are a long deep problem to eradicate. In some other areas, instead, they are ahead of us. There, i.e., Mr. George Bush has already died. It seems that bushisms won’t die with his creator.



Photo via muchapasta.com.

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