Jong-il's fireworks

Yesterday North Korea launched three short range missiles. The test comes after the launching of a Taepodong-2 long range missile in April and at least another mid-range missile by mid-June, apart from a nuclear test.

The missiles from yesterday were short-range KN-1 and KN-2 weapons. They are probably the most accurate among the arsenal of the Koreans. The missiles flew for around a 100 of km and then felt into the water.

When it comes to North Korea, it is always unclear to determine the purpose of those drills. It can be just a test for their military, it can be a threat-message for the West, or even, as some analysts suggest from the last launching, just to make some fireworks in order to please Kim Jong-il

(I don’t know why, but while writing the last sentence of the previous paragraph, it came into my mind an image of Jong-il jumping and clapping his hand excited like a child after the missile launches)

The paranoia over North Korea’s missiles is getting to the media. We already talked here about the chain of mistakes that evolved from a missile launching preparation into an attack on Hawaii on the 4th of July. Well, the paranoia is back.

Some agencies and newspapers are talking again about a possible threat against Hawaii in the Independence day. But that’s highly unlikely. In April’s launch of the Taepodong-2, the Koreans needed 12 day to fuel up the missile and prepare the launching site, all of it was fully observable from satellite images. Now, however, nothing has happened that could suggest an imminent launching. Too much fireworks for Jong-il.

But what is clear and really happened is yesterday’s events. Now we know why the North Koreans asked everyone in the region to stay away from their territorial waters. But also we learned some about the stuff they fired.

David Wright and Theodore Postol have written an analysis on the launching of last April’s Unha-2, or the modified Taepodong-2 used for satellite launchings. According to Wright and Postol, the parts of the missile were of Russian origin. The first stage looks similar to a cluster of four Nodong engines, a model based on the Russian Scud, while the second stage is identical to the Soviet R-27 missile.

As Nathan Hodge, from Danger Room states:

The bad news? The Unha-2 “represents a significant advance over North Korea’s previous launchers” and it could potentially reach the continental United States if it modified for use as a ballistic missile. The good news? The long-range missile “appears to be constructed from components that probably weren’t manufactured in North Korea.” In other words, they will sooner or later run out of missile parts, provided that sanctions remain in place.

So, keep firing Kim. Sooner or later you'll run out of fireworks.



Photo: AP


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