Smugglers of the Middle East

The borders of the Middle East and the Sahara have always been an excellent breeding ground for smuggling. Dozens of times, crossing from one country to another, I have seen myself how cigarettes, alcohol or even toilet paper was carried mixed among the luggage of tourists and backpackers.

Conflicts in the region have made these borders even more porous. Many people are benefiting from the lack of control on either side of the border to increase smuggling of all kinds of goods, objects or even people.

In the Sahara, the growing influence of al-Qaeda (notable for using the drug trade to finance itself) has increased smuggling in places like Algeria and Mali. People who smuggled cigarettes before have been attracted by the easy money in drugs and now carry cocaine. It comes from South America to Africa through the parallel 10 (Highway 10) and across the desert into Europe.

Further east, the story is somehow similar, but the trade changes. According to an AP report for Al Jazeera, weapons, humanitarian aid, including fuel, and medicine enter Syria via Turkey on a daily basis. In the other direction go vegetables, flour, tea, iron and wood from houses destroyed by missile and rocket attacks and even live animals such as cows or sheeps.

The long-time porous border between Lebanon and Syria is more of the same. For the Lebanese, the traditional tobacco smuggling has given way to a far more deadly trade: weapons. The UN, through its Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, has expressed concern that this smuggling will end destabilizing Lebanon itself.

One of the reasons for the American doubts to support the rebels is that their weapons could end up in the hands of Islamists. There are also questions raised about what might happen to the chemical weapons arsenal if the Assad regime is toppled.

The matter concerns enough to Israel, which fears that orphaned Assad’s weapons will end up as part of a service arsenal for the highest bidder. A few weeks ago Israeli warplanes bombed an alleged Syrian arms shipment to Hezbollah, in Syrian soil but from Lebanese airspace.

Tunnel in Gaza

The counterpart to the benefit of a few for smuggling is that commodities’ prices have skyrocketed for the rest, even for basic items. While Syrian fuel and flour cross the border to make a profit in Turkey, Aleppo bakeries can not make bread.

The same goes for other food like tomatoes, which have seen their price more than doubled since the war began. Also sheperds try to get rid of their herds before a bomb wills kill the animals. This explains the smuggling of live animals, but also the exorbitant price of meat inside Syria.

But if there is a Middle Eastern place that has taken years perfecting smuggling that is the Gaza Strip. The famous tunnels under the border with Egypt have provided the population a way of life and survival during the hardest years. Now, with the change of government in Egypt, are still used but less and less.

However, The Telegraph recently speculated with the possibility of reviving a smuggling route from Iran to Gaza via Sudan, intended primarily to provide weapons to Hamas.

It would not be the first time that the Iranians try, and it would not be the first time that Israel invades foreign airspace to avoid it. Israel attacked in the Sudanese capital several convoys that, according to Tel Aviv, were carrying weapons destined for Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza.

However, perhaps the most striking act of smuggling in recent months has been a completely different one. It has to do not with weapons, food nor medicine. It is all about a much more primary element of human nature: obtain offspring.

For Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails, having children is out of reach. No right to conjugal private meetings means it is impossible to start a family. So they are increasingly resorting to an ingenious method, sperm smuggling.

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The rising of private wars

The world woke up back on a late April Tuesday morning to the horrific images of a cargo airliner crashing in Afghanistan. The huge fireball left by the plane when crashing was a clear picture of the tragedy.

The aircraft was a Boeing 747-400 carrying only cargo on board. This load was mostly military equipment, vehicles and other supplies. It seems there wasn’t any attack and for now, the most plausible theory is that it was an accident.

The load probably wasn’t well secured and went loose during takeoff towards the tail. This in turn would have altered the center of gravity of the aircraft, making it stall and fall. It is certainly the most likely cause.

However, this accident brings to the front a problem that is currently missing in the headlines: wars are increasingly private and states are increasingly dependent on mercenaries.

We are only a few months from NATO leaving Afghanistan and with Iraq already abandoned. Today there are more non-military than American military personnel in these two countries, as it has been during the past half decade. The United States has gotten used to fight its wars with remote-drones-and outsourcing them to others.

Most of these contractors are non-combatant personnel. They are engineers, doctors, foremen and all kinds of project managers, belonging to Western companies that have won bids for reconstruction projects. There are also many who are local labor.

But then there is the category of mercenaries. These are responsible for the security of the bases or, as in the case of the crashed plane, of transporting personnel and equipment to operational theaters.

This is nothing new. Spain lived in their own flesh what it means to engage third parties with the crash of a plane carrying its soldiers back from Afghanistan. It was the biggest loss of personnel -60 soldiers died- in a single day for the Spanish army since the Civil War, in 1939. But the influence of contractors has increased as increased the conflicts in which the United States was involved.

Today we can find mercenaries in Iraq or Afghanistan, but also fighting piracy in Somalia aboard private freighters, helping the French in Mali, dealing with the war on drugs, assisting the Syrian rebels or handling the biggest air base in Kyrgyzstan.

This has made modern armies, starting with the American, depend largely on mercenaries. Without them, NATO operations in Afghanistan would stall because there is no country in the coalition -not even the US- capable of, for example, maintaining the cargo capacity that handle the various subcontractors.

The troops would be out of fuel and ammunition, but also they would have to stop patrolling to start doing tasks like peeling potatoes or guard bases. Jobs that once were assigned to the soldiers and today are made by mercenaries.

This work is reflected on the bills. Between 2008 and 2011, companies like Blackwater or DynCorp pocketed a total of 132 billion dollars, a budget larger than that of any other American agency in the same period. And we must bear in mind that this is only the invoice for the Americans and it does not include all contractors. Personal like embassy security guards is not included in that number.

The economic issue of employing mercenaries is joined with the moral problems that cause the mercenaries. Several times they have been involved in scandals in Iraq and Afghanistan, some high-profile. But even after Blackwater’s shooting in central Baghdad, the mercenary army has done nothing else but to increase. It is certainly a good deal for some. But at what cost to the states?

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The new old superpower (II)

As we said last week, China has all the ingredients to become a great power. It already is one at the regional level. But doubt remains about whether it can be constructed also as a real world superpower.

The traditional definition of superpower has been usually linked to a powerful army. And regarding that, China still has a long way to go.

In recent years and especially since 2011, China has prompted several major military projects. These include for example several types of aircraft under development, among which are especially relevant the J20 and J31.

These two prototypes make China, along with the U.S., the only other country which has two models of flying 5th-generation aircrafts. Russia, the third runner in possession of this technology, is developing only one model. The rest, none.

But nothing exemplifies a superpower more than its force projection capabilities. That's where come into the picture the submarine and aircraft carrier forces the Chinese navy (PLA) is developing.

Both platforms are the spearhead of any modern army. They are the ones that allow a country’s forces to be deployed rapidly anywhere in the world and until now it is what so far has lacked the Chinese army.

However the Chinese still have many years of development ahead of them to even get closer to the American potential, let alone surpass it. But the mere fact that they are providing the basis for this kind of military power has more than one brain concern in Washington.

In their favor plays something else. China doesn’t seem to want to follow the militaristic model of the United States and Russia. Surely its armed forces will continue to go abroad on an exponential basis as its influence grows. But mainly it will be for maneuvers and for humanitarian missions -something they could not do during the 2004 tsunami but learned in time for the disaster of Fukushima.

This strategy fits well with the soft power approach that China has historically exercised and exercises today in Africa, Latin America and Asia. A power that was tested in Libya, when it was forced to evacuate the large population of Chinese expatriates working there in the oil and gas industry.

The high demand for energy and resources has made China open to the world to find them. Mongolia, Australia, Venezuela and Uganda are among the countries that have benefited from Chinese soft power commercial contracts.

The case of the African country is particularly striking. In a country where until recently infrastructure was nonexistent, today you can make your way through the jungle in wide six-lane highways. Even Top Gear presenters were surprised when they saw them in the Africa special. It is the Chinese gift to Africa in exchange for their resources.

But China has shown it is also willing to play aggressively. And when we talk about today’s battlefields of economics and business, the aircraft carriers are the international companies and submarines are the rating agencies.

The Asian giant has also begun to enter with authority into these areas. Chinese companies have been for years expanding themselves into the Western market, either by geographical reach (like the introduction of Chinese goods in Europe) or acquisitions of Western companies (like the purchase of Volvo).

Meanwhile, back in May China established its first Chinese rating agency together with Russia to counter Moody's and S&P, both American and highly criticized, also from the European Union, for being biased and pro-US interest.

However, if the Asian giant is truly to become a globally dominant economy, it still has a lot of homework to do.

The main problem that China has is the same that has allowed it to create so much so fast: it is the country of the copy. Early in its development, copycats served the Chinese industry to get a head start. However, they have become accustomed to it.

A recurring theme among expatriates in China is the lack of imagination of local subordinates. They know to follow orders and they know how to copy, but they are unable to create and innovate.

Their initiative is reduced with a generation that has grown up in the shelter of not having to think about anything, just engineer retroactively or follow the instructions from blueprints purchased in questionable conditions or stolen from a foreign server. A lack of initiative that is worsened by the internet censorship.

Of course there are people who innovate, but the results are... let’s say that far from perfect. The best Chinese products today are still based on other foreign projects. When China becomes the lead of the pack, they will encounter a serious problem of innovation.

The rest of the world is now also better protected against copying. An employee of a Spanish aeronautical company told me how on a visit of potential Chinese investors they had to isolate them so they could not see or copy anything. They went as far as blocking office windows that faced the factory grounds and test labs and took off the network the computers the Chinese investors used.

The energy hunger problem, on the other hand, will curb the Chinese industry’s growth. Despite the large planned investment in nuclear power plants, to maintain the current level of production growth, China would need to increase by 50% the consumption of coal. Something that will involve both environmental and economic difficulties.

Also, many Chinese still believe today that the best future for their children is outside of China. Without a winning mentality in China, it is difficult to create a leader country. This extent is joined by the problem of an aging population that is going to be increasingly older. The one-child policy has endangered Chinese generational takeover.

Despite all this, and even if only because of its demographic weight, China is bound to have an important role this century. Their elites know this and they are preparing the ground with the military build-up. Meanwhile, America is in decline, running away from a world police role.

It is also happening on the political level; China is building-up influence, venturing into issues that had not mattered before to Chinese officials, like the conflict between Israel and Palestine. To interfere in a regional issue so far from its area of ​​influence is a clear sign of the dominant role that China is called to exercise. Whether America likes it or not.

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The new old superpower (I)

The decline of the U.S. as a lone superpower looms on the horizon. China comes pushing hard. Sometime between 2015 and 2020, depending on whose analysis you rely on, the Asian giant will become the world's largest economy.

In a time where soldiers have given way to traders and territorial invasions to company takeovers, that means power and control.

It has been a relatively short journey for China. Its economic evolution has been exponential in the last three decades. Back in 2003, China was the world's sixth largest economy. In 2004 it overcame France. In 2006 it was the turn for the United Kingdom to bite the dust. In 2009 fell Germany. And in 2011 Japan gave away the silver medal. Now only the US stands in the way to the top.

Today, China leads the ranking of population by country. But also in the number of internet connections, energy consumption per capita and the country vehicle fleet. These factors -its huge population and huge domestic market- are what have allowed the country to grow at an average rate of around 10% annually.

This growth has gone hand in hand with the Chinese increase in the life quality index. The Chinese live in general way better now than just a decade ago and have gained in that time what others countries accomplished over half a century. On average, their wages have grown too 10% annually since 2006.

Something similar has happened with the development of the industry. In twenty years it has seen a fast pace industrial revolution that in Europe and the U.S. lasted for over 200 years. Today it is the largest manufacturer in the world of all kinds of goods.

Contributing to this explosion was the massive rural migration to the cities. 120 million Chinese people have left behind the fields to sit behind machines at factories in huge new cities with the population of entire countries.

It also helps its industry that China controls the production of rare earth metals, essential elements for all kinds of modern electronic devices, from mobile phones to washing machines.

The economic boom and rapid development has brought unique situations. It has extremes that to the foreign eye cause shock and awe. As the good replicators they are, the Chinese took what they wanted from the capitalist system -the economy- and what they wanted from the communist system -the administrative organization- creating a quirky cocktail, which is unique and sometimes extremely wild.

The communist legacy makes the Chinese bureaucracy extremely dreaded, especially by expatriates working there. It is a mixture of communist-era rules and timid liberal openings as difficult to navigate as a maze. Moreover, that same mixed bureaucracy makes sometimes the capitalist economy to have to bend around stupid or wild assumptions, creating a result that is neither capitalist nor communist but a mixture of the worst of both.

A clear example of this are the nail houses. In the 60s, the communist government could expropriate land at will paying very low compensation. With the introduction of private property laws in 2007, the owners won some bargaining power. 

This led to stupid situations. Throughout China there are examples of residents who refused to sell their homes and builders built everything from shopping centers to roads around them. The results are simply surreal in most of the cases.

However, one of the things that the Chinese have learned to do extremely well is to protest. Sometimes their voices are heard, sometimes not.

In recent years, the environmental issue has been a continuing focus of protests: the depletion of aquifers, pollution of the air or the cancer villages are just a few examples.

Corruption, human rights and civil rights have been at the center stake as well, this last one a field where the artist Ai Weiwei has been its most prominent spokesman in recent years.

However, advances in both environmental issues and human rights and civil rights issues have been timid. The Chinese government considers both a collateral damage that it is willing to take if in exchange progress is achieved.

That is not the case with corruption, an area where Beijing’s government seems to be starting to consider more seriously.

Inside its own country, the Chinese government has been concerned to make clear to its own citizens that the global importance of the country has increased. The architectural mega-projects like the world's largest dam, the highest altitude railway or one of the longest bridges in the world have put China once more in the map.

But not only concrete jungles drive Chinese pride. Since it hosted the Olympic Games in 2008, China has come to control them in the arena in the latest edition in London. In addition, part military, part civilian, the Chinese indigenous space program is a feat that few countries can boast.

This increasing prestige has been joined with the increase in living standards. Higher wages have made the Chinese tourists the biggest spenders outside its borders and, therefore, the most desirable. But also be the most problematic ones.

China has all the ingredients to become a great power. It already is one at the regional level. But doubt remains about whether it can be constructed also as a world superpower. 

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The lost generation

The latest Eurostat data leaves us with a figure of desolation. A quarter of young Europeans are unemployed. The situation is even worse in the southern European countries where youth unemployment is above 50%.

That is why the north blames the south of being unfairly supporting its load. The populations of Scandinavia and the UK, countries that until recently welcomed and even demanded foreign labor, are beginning to see Southern Europeans as a plague and xenophobic acts, although very rare, have increased.

In the last British local elections, the conservative parties -especially the eurosceptic UKIP, but also the tories of Prime Minister David Cameron- have made a huge profit with the fear of European immigrant.

In September, Cameron’s government will implement more stringent controls for access to unemployment benefits and other assistance. In fact, the European migration control has become a central issue in British politics.

The truth is that the influx of young people from Southern Europe puts even more pressure on social systems that already bear a great burden. But the truth is also that an increased immigration is not linked to an increase in unemployment; that is a myth.

On the contrary, what really is a threat to Europe is the possibility of a lost generation. Worldwide there are about 300 million young people who are neither studying nor working -called NEET. Many of them do not even appear in the unemployment statistics because they are long-term unemployed or have never worked.

It is a global phenomenon. So far, Southeast Asia and the Middle East have led the ranking of number of NEETs. In fact, this was one of the reasons for the outbreak of the Arab Spring. But Europe is moving closer to these levels.

Greece tops the list with 64% of unemployed youth, followed by Spain with 55%. In countries such as Ireland, over 300,000 people have emigrated in the last four years, of which 40% were under 25 years. For a country with a population of about six million, that means that one in every four families has a migrant member.

The causes of this are complex. Much has been made of the lack of coordination between what the labor market demands and what universities produce. Also the digital divide has been on the table as a possible cause.

Photo: Daily Telegraph

But as this article explains, if there are not enough people to fill certain jobs, those jobs’ salaries should have increased. It is something that would be a logical consequence of the law of supply and demand.

However, instead of increased salaries, we got inflation, rise of prices and freeze of wages. Instead of becoming richer, the gap between poor and rich is widening and mostly against the poor.

Another more possible cause is the lack of foresight by the governments of Southern Europe. In countries where investment in science and R & D is high and the government promotes an entrepreneur mentality, such as Germany, Austria and the UK, the impact of unemployment has been felt but not as drastically as in Spain or Greece.

Meanwhile, the southern European countries enjoyed no safety net in case the construction and tourism industries failed. After falling these two sectors have dragged with them other more complex industries.

That is why today in Berlin we can find queuing a waiter of the Greek islands, a bricklayer from Spain and an Italian engineer, all together. An economy, an education system and a mentality based on the first two dragged with them the third in their fall.

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The real price of your clothes

The recent tragedy in Bangladesh, where a collapsed building left behind 1000 people dead, has oulined that our cheap clothing is at the expense of human rights.

Thousands of people were working at several factories in a building without sufficient security measures and poorly preserved. The conditions for the workers were extremely precarious.

All this would have been overlooked if the Rana Plaza had not collapsed. But the magnitude of the tragedy (1000 dead and counting) and the massive demonstrations on May Day in Bangladesh, have made it impossible to ignore the fact any longer.

Big retail names like Zara, H&M, Benetton and Wal Mart have been involved. As happened with Apple and its factories in China, fashion giants outsource to other companies in Asia to make the clothes that they then sell across the world.

It is one of the effects of globalization. Today, it is cheaper to send raw materials and finished products to go around the world several times than to make them in factories in Europe or America.

Competition is also fierce. A few years ago China was the main recipient of these contracts. But since the standard of living of the Chinese has increased, their wage demands have risen in line with it. Chinese wages are growing around 10% per year and this increase means lower profit margins for textile giants.

That's where, since the beginning of the credit crunch crisis, other countries like Bangladesh have entered in the race. Without as many legal obstacles and with wages of around a dollar a day, these countries are a much more appealing destination for large retail companies.

The way of doing things, however, does not change. They hire contractors and subcontractors. Sometimes the subcontractors hire even more subcontractors. In fact New Wave Style, one of the companies involved in the Rana Plaza disaster, got its first big contract when a contractor for the Canadian company Loblaws could not cope with an order and appealed to them. From there, everything grew until disaster struck.

The chain of contractors and subcontractors is dark. And the more you go down the chain, the less control you have over what happens. Companies such as Primark claim to have under control the companies they hire. But the truth is that it is impossible to be aware of the whole process when it is so complex and confusing.

The conditions are extremely precarious for the workers. Overtime is common to be able to meet deadlines, but it is rarely paid. The workplaces are often poorly conditioned. Too much heat, little ventilation and buildings without sufficient security measures are the norm.

The unions tried to improve those conditions imposing independently controlled safety plans, but the big brands rejected the plan. They needed a plan outside of the corruption circle between factory owners and the government. But it was too expensive and complex and retail companies said no.

It is not the first time a disaster strikes the industry. In fact fashion giants have a long history full of stains. From the use of child labor for sports brands manufacturers to the recent fire in another factory (also in Bangladesh), scandals are many.

That’s why crisis management teams in brands like Loblaws and Primark have been so quick to tackle the tragedy. Immediately, they announced that they will compensate the victims. Others like Benetton have reacted slower. Even the EU has jumped into the wagon.

Zara in turn, has increased its positive presence in various media, with stories that illustrate, for example, how it employs young people in Spain, a country battered by youth unemployment.

The general trend of the industry has been a PR offensive. Big brands know that their main battle is being fought in the streets of Paris, London or New York, with the public opinion at home. After all, they are also to blame in part for wanting cheap clothes. They are the ones who buy the clothes and they are the ones they need to convince to bury all this in the past –until the next tragedy.

Governments and workers in Bangladesh, on the other hand, are too afraid they may lose all they got. The wages of workers in these factories, despite being extremely low, are sometimes the best that can be dreamed of in these countries.

Meanwhile, export remittances provide a generous source of revenue to governments. So much so, that the government of Bangladesh has asked the EU not to impose sanctions or regulations on his country. They fear that, like it happened in China, the factories will relocate to a less problematic country.

However, Bangladesh would probably be better off looking towards Vietnam. The communist country has shown that it is possible to get the production for multinational brands and improve the living conditions of workers all at the same time. But that demands change and courage to do it.

And probably as well, less profit margins and more expensive clothes. But not much. With as little as a 25cents increase in the price of our clothes, we could pay for better working conditions in Bangladesh. Will it happen?

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Why the conservatives have regained Iceland?

Much has been said in the media about the victory of the conservatives in the latest election in Iceland. However, while it is true that the leftist coalition has suffered a debacle, there are many more factors to consider in the equation.

For starters, as in Italy, Greece and Spain, many small parties have raised their percentage in votes. Some have been on the verge of parliamentary representation. Others, like the pirate party, are full on with strength.

Overall, the Parliamentary cake was previously divided between two or three forces. Nowadays a quarter of those votes have been grabbed by minority parties. However, half of them will have no parliamentary representation because they did not meet the minimum percentage required. That percentage has gone on to benefit other parties.

This fragmentation has hurt the left. But they also have been punished for the policies undertaken under their rule.

Despite being held up as examples to what the left should do in countries like Spain, Ireland or Italy, the reality is that the coalition has not deployed a policy different from that carried out in the German modeled EU.

Budget cuts, controlling the deficit and austerity measures have been the norm. This was completed with the insult that represented having to go to the EU for help, losing independence in the process.

The main winner of these elections, the ultranationalist party Progressive Party, has made a good use of the prospect of losing autonomy and is a strong anti-EU advocate.

Meanwhile, contrary to the general idea held outside Iceland that the country has been prosecuting its bankers, it is very little what really has been done about it. The people behind the credit crunch crisis in Iceland have been left mostly untouched, as in Spain, Italy, Greece or Ireland. In fact, Germany has opened more cases against bankers than Iceland.

The Icelandic popular revolution, once admired outside, had many people disappointed inside the country. Living standards, partly due to the devaluation of the Krona, were down at least 30%. To this we must add a high inflation (an increase of 75% since 2005) and the ruin of the housing market.

Although the houses were now worth between 30 and 40% less, many mortgages had been signed in Euros. This was a horrible combination. The houses were less valued, but the owners’ debts had increased. The gap was too big to overcome for many families.

The situation was so desperate that the coalition government wrote off any mortgage debt above 110%, but that still left a lot of people deeply in debt. Unable to afford their homes’ mortgages and with commodity prices skyrocketing, the situation was complicated.

One of the promises of the Progressive Party in this election has been to eliminate up to 20% of all the household debt. Looking at the results from the polls, the strategy worked. They have not won, and they are not likely to carry it forward, but they have increased in number of votes and seats in the Parliament.

In the end, what has made people decide to punish the left has been mostly disappointment. Many thought that a leftist government would end the austerity policies, imprison bankers and remain independent.

The reality is that despite their intentions, in the end the leftist coalition did not know or could not remain true to their ideals. The disenchantment among voters caused many to stay home and not go to vote.

That along with the reasons given above, explains the collapse of the revolution envisioned by many in Europe. A revolution that just maybe, it was just all façade and had no foundations.

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Wasting Money

Over 12% of the Money spent in rebuilding Iraq has been wasted. That is the conclusion reached by the latest enquiry on the matter by the USA. And it could be worse.

Nothing is more painful for Americans than paying taxes. That is why the “taxpayer’s money” is scrutinised so closely. And the quantity wasted this time is considerable: more than $8b.

An estimation, by the way, that could be short. Stuart Bowen, head of the committee redacting the document, told Wired that the total could be much more because they only could audit superficially the account. An account that only includes money spent on reconstruction, not the overall military operation cost which ascends to $800b.

To the 12% of the $60b for rebuilding Iraq, we should add the unknown amount wasted in Afghanistan already. Last year an independent investigation by the BBC revealed that a “significant portion” of the $400m invested in 2011 alone was going to be lost.

Photo: US Army

One thing you can’t deny them is creativity when it comes to useless spending. Sometimes it was in the form of unfinished projects. Sometimes by paying contractors that then didn’t meet the requirements. There is even a case of a school that wanted $10,000 for refurbishment works and got $70,000 without knowing well why.

Probably the case of the “Sons of Iraq” program is especially relevant. It was seen as a expense to avoid expenses. Planned by the now villain Gen. Petraeus it focused on paying of Sunni groups in Iraq to work for the Americans instead of against them. Bribe them, one could say. Those bribes added up to $370m between 2007 and 2008. But worst of all, without being clear if it was a success, they exported the system to Afghanistan.

It is impossible not to think other uses that money could have had. $8b is a lot of money. Enough, for example, to pay for five more missions of the space shuttle. Or for almost a whole year of the Environmental Agency’s budget. Instead they are collecting dust in some warehouse in the middle of the desert.

Published first on Iniciativa Abierta in Spanish

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Better?

A few months ago I talked in this blog about the new impulse for the Palestinian economy in the West Bank, simbolized by Nablus rebirth. I'm not the only one seeing this, but, then, why not more publicity about it?



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Friendly fire 12/10/09

- NK tests five short range missiles and requests everybody to stay outta their Eastern territorial waters until the 20th.

- SK presses the gas for the purchase of new jets.

- The hardest decision for this year (after Obama's Nobel): Economics Nobel. And the one who messed the less was...

- There is no small foe.

- About to getting divorced? How sounds a trip to Malaysia?


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Fun index

Who said economy has to be boring? That guy hadn't seen, for sure, this app from Puma. A good way to cheer up when everything goes down. There is a different version for each of the main indexes. Via YesButNoButYes.



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Friendly fire 26/08/09

- How Poles struggle in Afghanistan.

- China cuts the supply of rare metals.

- One of the kidnapped French spies captured in Somalia, free. How? Well...

- Maybe the Russian freighter kidnapped in the Atlantic wasn't carrying just timber…

- The third man in Afghanistan's presidential elections (the ona Obama should listen to)





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Palestinian sweet future

During the last week several articles have appeared in international newspapers talking about the rebirth of Palestinian economy. Although rebirth is way too optimistic (there should had been something first to be able to rebirth), it has some sense. Most of the articles focused on Nablus city. It isn’t casual.

The small new hopes for Palestine have the shape of a new theatre, a festival and a World Guinness Record. The last one is for the world longest knafa, a traditional local dessert honored this way by 170 local bakers, who have made 74 m of sweetness.

However, like the knafa, Palestinian economic rebirth may be too sweet to allow us to see the whole pack. The West Bank needs still more freedom from Israel if they want to grow up. Plus it is just half of the Palestinian reality. The other one, in Gaza, suffers the Israeli blockade and the debris cleaning from the last Gaza war will last for at least one year.

It is true that in the West Bank things are, slowly, getting better. Five years ago I remember being myself in Nablus with serious shortages of entertaining offers, water and freedom of movement. Weekends were spent in Jasmine’s hotel’s terrace watching the Israeli jeeps below during curfews making arrests.

Today, however, pressure has been lowered. Still the problems persist, but a new cinema has opened, festivals arrive to the city, freedom of movement for the Palestinians have eased and the north checkpoint of the city has disappeared. And against those who claim that it could have ended in a disaster, the security has improved.

Most of the merit is for the Palestinian police officer. Created with European Union equipment and training (in Jordan), now they are a truly police force and not the paramilitaries that I met the first time. The efficiency of these officers to maintain the order surprised even the Israelis, when in the last winter they were able to keep the order on the streets even though the operation in Gaza.

But all that is just an illusion that sooner or later can break. Without taking into consideration Gaza, Israel should leave from the settlements in the West Bank if they want to avoid incidents. Sure, they are not as often as before (from more than 200 in 2004 to just 2 in 2008) but still sometimes, it happens.

However, Binyamin Netanyahu’s government seems decided to continue the expansion of settlements in the West Bank. They accepted to demolish 30 illegal (just those considered illegal by the Israel courts) settlements, but still goes on with plans to expand East Jerusalem colonies, even against the USA and the EU will.

The truth is that the situation doesn’t improve substantially in the West Bank and it gets worse in Gaza. The IMF warned about it on its last report on the region. And even inside Israel’s military recognizes and denounces abuses against the Palestinians.

At the other side of the wall, it doesn’t help that Fatah is more and more like a despotic Arab regime, more worried about keeping the chair than anything else. Last example came with the suspension of Al Jazeera broadcastings after airing an opinion contraire to Abbas.

Neither of them are democratic; neither of them are good for the Palestinians. Neither Hamas does it better implementing his new religious police forces -Iranian or Saudi Arabian style- in Gaza. And the ones who lose in between all this are the Palestinian people. Used by everyone for their own interests, once again.


Nablus from the Jasmine hotel, 2004.
Photo: me


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Polishing European Politics

After last June European elections, the new European Parliament has already chosen his President. It will be Mr. Jerzy Buzek, former Polish Prime Minister and europarliamentary for the conservatives, the one in charge for the first two and a half years. Then, a socialdemocrat candidate will take the seat, as it was (but in reverse) during the last legislature.

Buzek is a symbol of the new Europe. He is the first President of the European Parliament who comes from a former Soviet-ally country. However, besides the challenges, changes end there. In the rest of the seats, there are few new faces.

Half of the total of 736 seats will repeat their occupant, and the European Commission will, presumably, be hosted again by Durao Barroso. The only major change is the turn to the right in the general map of the Parliament.

Those unchanged faces, anyway, will have to face many challenges. Yesterday we knew that two thirds of European habitats and species are under risk or their conservation state is undetermined. Add that to the considerable over schedule from various members in accomplish the yearly minimums for carbon emissions. A lot of work to do yet to fight climate change.

Another important issue is the energy. Yesterday too a new deal was signed between the EU and Turkey to create Nabucco a pipeline to diversify the supply of gas. This way, Europe will reduce its dependence on Russian gas and last winter problems will be easily avoided. Of course, just if the EU finds some gas to fill in the pipelines. Options are Georgian or Iraqi gas (instable countries), Iranian gas (not a friendly country) or other ex-Soviet republics’ gas (again the problem of Russia).

And all this without losing from sight the financial crisis.

Although, maybe, if in October 2 Ireland votes again against Lisbon, maybe, any of it won’t matter anymore.



Photo: European Parliament


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Arms race goes east II (The Dragon wakes up)

2030 is also the date in red on Chinese’s agenda. By then, according to the graphics we have been seeing for a decade, they will be the first economy of the world, way upper than the USA. And of course, it’s expected that the military power will follow similar paths as the economic development.

But we don’t have to go so far. Today’s Chinese Armed Forces are a power to take in consideration. And even a step behind, the number of them and their inventiveness keeps them in the frontline. Well, maybe inventiveness is a bit excessive, as many progression is not theirs, but a copy of other’s work.

However, whatever they do, they are doing it well. In less than what was expected, they have jumped from third generation jets to the fourth (Europe and the USA have already their 5th gen. fighters, the Eurofighter and Raptor respectively; and Russia works in the details for his own fifth gen. jet). But we should note that they were helped by the Russians in this jump (not willingly, however). But the fact is that now, they not only have a plane more than capable of facing the Hornets, Eagles and Sukhois in an air battlefield, but also to plant battle in the markets. And a better positioning in the places where this kind of planes might interest (Asia, Latin America and Africa).

Also the Navy sails with full power. The construction of a medical ship in November, woke up all kina of rumors in the West. This kind of ships have two primary tasks: help the casualties from conflicts far from the homeland, or help with humanitarian aid operations. It may be that China, ashamed after being unable to help in 2006 after the tsunami in Thailand, is trying to solve that for the future. But neocons in Washington prefer to think it is because of the other option, much more sinister.

Something else starting to take off in China is the naval air power. Today, the Chinese are the only superpower without a carrier capability. That will change from now to 2030. The dragons have announced they plan to build between four and six mid-size carriers. Like as it happened with Iran, some analysts are already calling wolf.

Truth, however, is slightly different. Four, six or even ten carriers don’t present a big threat. Kyle Mizokami gives ten reasons why we shouldn’t fear the Chinese. Norman Polmar also uses similar arguments. But over all that, over the difference in quality, quantity and experience, it would be the fact of China being more likely a friend than a foe.

Much more dangerous than a few carriers looks the possibility of the Chinese modifying ICBMs to target Western carriers. They never have said so, but a carrier is the only target possible that meets the description of a “big mobile sea target”. Either is that or the golf ball. But again, although it may be scary, is not something worth to worry. Many nations, including Australia, the UK and India already have anti-carriers measures. But these kinds of weapons are considered more a defensive mean than an offensive one. So, unless the US plans to attack China (and they don’t), there is nothing to fear.

The most imminent threat to the Americans may come from Korea. As demonstrated this week, its nuclear program and its ballistic missiles program make them the biggest menace to region stability. But of course, Korea doesn’t need any kind of advertising, Kim il-Jong already does his job now and then to make sure everyone notices him.



Photo PLA

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Arms race goes east III (Australia and the guardians of the West)

Before this perspective, the traditional guardians of the West -although some Japanese may disagree on this- are rearming themselves too for what may come.

Japan, mentioned above, plans the biggest remodelation of their Armed Forces since World War II. Not only a material one, but spiritually and in essence. After WWII, as their name states, Japanese army is only an Autodefence army, just for defensive means and not expansive as the previous empire. But just a few years ago, Japan started to go abroad, always keeping in mind avoiding the direct combat, however. Now, Japan’s army has have presence in Iraq and Japanese navy sails the East coast of Africa to patrol the waters and keep them free of pirates.

Of course, we don’t have to go so far to find the biggest problem for Japan: Korea. The DPRK and its missile and nuclear programs represent a big pain in the arse in the backyard. That’s why the main expenses in Japanese defense budget runs along anti-missile systems. Japanese navy is the only foreign navy, together with the Spanish, that has the AEGIS system integrated in their ships. Japan also has a vast network of Patriot launchers defending the cities and strategic areas of the country. And it’s studying the creation of an early warning satellite network.

If Japan is Korea’s Cerberus, India is Pakistan’s. Like we said in the post before, the danger of an Islamist Pakistan in the hands of fanatics with nuclear weapons is a real nightmare. And in spite of American plans to recover the weapons, is better to watch our backs before it happens. That’s why the Indian army is re-enforcing itself heavily. Examples of this are the new Sukhois, new indigenous tanks (plus new T-90 Russian tanks), and two new carriers by 2010.

This expenditure, however, carries on some risks too. As we have said here in Worldwide before, India and Pakistan are playing a dangerous game in an arms race. An increase in India’s military budget may be seen in Pakistan as a new threat. And that may launch the Pakistan army into the hands of the Talibans. Even more than now.

And although India may be powerful, and Japan so, and others like Singapore, who is buying second hand Eagles, is irrelevant if compared to the combined power of the foes. And they lack of regional leadership and strength. Here is when it comes all to Australia.

The new Australian Defence white paper plans a remodelation of Australian armed forces from now to 2030. This would be the biggest -and more expensive- since WWII also for the Australians.

Priority for Australians, as said by their Premier, is to play the role of the USA in the Pacific. This is, becoming a regional superpower capable of facing China any potential risk and to defend themselves from a “direct attack”.

It’s surprising, however, to see Australia spending cash they don’t have, specially when the rest of the world is cutting costs everywhere. But truth is that, although maybe it won’t be possible to accomplish all the demands, Australia has a big relieve to his economy in his mining industry. Ironically, the main buyer is China. That allows the Australian run a bit faster than others in these economically confusing times.

To the increase in the Afghanistan expenditure, we have to add up a close co-operation with New Zealand. Australia also will bet for air power. Just last month, Mr. Rudd’s government announced they will buy more Super Hornets, more Growlers, upgrade the current fleet and up to 100 more JSF. Even the Raptor has attracted their attention (unsuccessfully).

However, the biggest push comes from the Navy, like other countries in the area. The submarine fleet will double the present size, from 6 to 12 -although there will persist the present problem of how to supply those subs with crew. It’s also contemplated the acquisition of a few surface ships, including 8 new frigates, a carrier and a few hundred choppers to supply them.

But is all this necessary? In Beijing no one sees this plan as a threat. And letting aside a few exceptions, neither the West thinks like that. As we said before, it’s more plausible to have China as a friend to count on (like with the six party negotiations with Korea) rather than as a foe. It’s worth then to ask if Australia really need such an expensive military bill in a so instable economic climate. But of course, it’s easy to say this when Iran, Pakistan, the DPRK and China are more than 10 hours away in a plane and not in your backyard.



Photo; Reuters

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