I’m not too eager of stopping working for long (journalism is more a lifestyle than a business, although others may have a different opinion). But sometimes it’s good to take a break. And that’s what I’m going to do from today.
Meanwhile, here are the main issues to follow during the next two weeks:
- Iraq: No more multi-national task force in Iraq. Instead, from today on, it will be just a sole force of one country, exclusively American.
- Iran: Yesterday was the 40th day anniversary of Neda Soltan’s death. Tehran saw again thousands in the streets mourning those killed in the repression by the government forces. And the Basiji, again, fought them back violently. At least 20 people died during last month post-electoral clashes.
But the scars are still fresh. An Iranian court urged the police to present charges against those detained (hundreds of them) and finally around two dozens will be prosecuted. Another prominent reformist was moved from his cell to a government house where he will be under house arrest.
It’s to expect a surge in the clashes again for the next weeks.
- Afghanistan/Pakistan: Helmand offensive still goes on. Yesterday, two British soldiers were killed and the casualty report doesn’t make anything but grow. The near Presidential election, due the 20th of August, promises a few busy weeks ahead. Karzai will win again, almost for sure, but his popularity is decreasing. The Talibans have already called for a boycott of the polls.
Meanwhile, in the southern country the drone wars go on. A recent attack killed, according to the CIA, one of Osama bin Laden’s son. The operations in Swat valley, carried on by Pakistani militaries with assistance from the Americans, have allowed thousands of refugees to go back to their homes, avoiding what could have been the worst refugee crisis since Rwanda.
But the Taliban menace persists. Pakistan signed yesterday a deal with Tajikistan to secure the region, cooperate in security matters and blahblahblah. So beautiful; the ‘Stans fighting together...
And just in case the Taliban weren’t enough trouble, a separatist group from Balochistan started to attack foreign aid workers in the area.
- China: The Uighur revolt still is on the frontpages. China revealed last week official numbers for killed and detainees. Detentions that today are still going on.
Also abroad. While the Chinese government was exchanging opinions with Obama and messages with Taiwan -both signs of aperture of the regime-, it was angrily criticizing the words of the Uighur exile leader and the projection of an Uighur documentary in a movie festival in Australia.
Australia, by the way, is engaged in another nasty diplomatic clash with China regarding a few wallabie employees of Rio Tinto detained in a spy case. The problem for those employees is that they revealed data from Chinese companies to their partners abroad. Data that is open source in China. This puts over the edge hundreds of consultants. What to do now? Where is the limit about what to publish and what not?
And if they survive that, still can be themselves into a collective illnes inside their company.
- Horn of Africa: With the comeback of somalian pirates, the region should have enough. There is even a new videogame about it. But this is Africa. There is never enough trouble.
Knowing that -or maybe collaborating to that- the USA has intensified his pressure over Eritrea and his support for the Islamist groups operating in Somalia. Yet a hypothetic deal sounds like a far dream.
Meanwhile, America plays a wild card strongening his presence in the area through the semi-autonomus region of South Sudan. Members of the newly created South Sudanese Air Force -no planes yet- were training this week in the USA. South Sudan is undergoing through a rearming process as the recent images of Faina’s tanks found in the region prove it.
- Rest of Africa: In Nigeria, clashes between Islamist militias and government forces in the north of the country left 150 deaths. The ambushes are still taken place.
In South Africa, newly elected President Zuma has abruptly ended his honeymoon with his voters. A massive strike shook the country during this week.
Meanwhile, a new campaign has been launched by a Namibian NGO. “Lords of bling” tries to remind the African leaders their promise to spend at least a 15% of the money in healthcare, a measure long forgotten by most of the African Union signers of it. The signer Akon has designed this song to remind that fact to the African presidents.
- Israel/Palestine: The settlements center the debate. International pressure grows as the US envoy to the region increases the talks too. Netanyahu agreed yesterday to destroy 900 houses in an East Jerusalem colony.
Inside Israel sensibilities around this are also changing. Some analysts consider Israel’s image abroad is being heavily damaged by the settlements (smart guy). Some settlers even are speaking out and admit they would leave in exchange for the money spent in their homes and similar conditions somewhere else inside Israel. Some others, not so.
What doesn’t change is Netanyahu’s hawkish government. The last idea is askdemand the Netherlands and the UK to stop giving funds to the NGO Breaking the Silence, who has done some research of alleged Human Rights violations in Gaza by the IDF. Next will be to point European governments how they should spend their money.
And meanwhile the Netanyahu’s government asks Holland and the UK to stop funding pro-Human Rights NGOs, their allies from the far right ask the IDF soldiers to cover up for the abuses committed in the West Bank.
On the northside, the IDF has been put on alert after Lebanon forces were movilized too. However, Israelí officials consider unlikely a reedition of 2006 Hezbollah-Israel war, specially now with so many international forces in the zone.
On the other hand, in Gaza, Hamas starts to apply their particular vision of government. Up until now, Palestinian women could consider themselves lucky. I was actually talking about this recently with a Palestinian friend. While Saudi Arabian women cannot drive a car or meet with strangers, Palestinian women can do that and even wear trousers, the head uncovered or -if they want, and also the men- buy alcohol.
All that could be about to change. A judge has ordered in Gaza to all the female lawyers to wear a head scarf. It is just an example of many more that are showing Hamas’ Islamist hand in Gaza. Like restrictions with alcohol or the new religious police. Here an Al Jazeera video on it:
- Latinamerica: Honduras’ political turmoil doesn’t look well. But at least negotiations are moving up. Slower than a sloth, but moving up. Zelaya is in Nicaragua’s border from where he visits periodically his supporters. Meanwhile the interim government is more and more in lack of support. Abroad, the USA revoked several diplomatic visas. Internally, the Army admitted the predisposition to accept a unity government with Zelaya in front. Last word is Micheletti’s.
Further to the south, Colombia and Venezuela are again fighting. This time, a few Swedish grenade launchers were the detonant of the diplomatic turmoil. The weapons, sold by Sweden to Venezuela, ended up being discovered in a FARC’s camp. After that, the usual crossfire between governments and Hugo Chavez’s usual recall of ambassadors.
And basically that’s all. Add some narco fights in Mexico and a political fight in Burma (Google this, I’m tired of linking news today) and you have enough to be busy for these two weeks I’ll be out.
So, until then... Be good, have fun, and don’t do anything I wouldn’t.
2030 is also the date in red on Chinese’s agenda. By then, according to the graphics we have been seeing for a decade, they will be the first economy of the world, way upper than the USA. And of course, it’s expected that the military power will follow similar paths as the economic development.
But we don’t have to go so far. Today’s Chinese Armed Forces are a power to take in consideration. And even a step behind, the number of them and their inventiveness keeps them in the frontline. Well, maybe inventiveness is a bit excessive, as many progression is not theirs, but a copy of other’s work.
However, whatever they do, they are doing it well. In less than what was expected, they have jumped from third generation jets to the fourth (Europe and the USA have already their 5th gen. fighters, the Eurofighter and Raptor respectively; and Russia works in the details for his own fifth gen. jet). But we should note that they were helped by the Russians in this jump (not willingly, however). But the fact is that now, they not only have a plane more than capable of facing the Hornets, Eagles and Sukhois in an air battlefield, but also to plant battle in the markets. And a better positioning in the places where this kind of planes might interest (Asia, Latin America and Africa).
Also the Navy sails with full power. The construction of a medical ship in November, woke up all kina of rumors in the West. This kind of ships have two primary tasks: help the casualties from conflicts far from the homeland, or help with humanitarian aid operations. It may be that China, ashamed after being unable to help in 2006 after the tsunami in Thailand, is trying to solve that for the future. But neocons in Washington prefer to think it is because of the other option, much more sinister.
Something else starting to take off in China is the naval air power. Today, the Chinese are the only superpower without a carrier capability. That will change from now to 2030. The dragons have announced they plan to build between four and six mid-size carriers. Like as it happened with Iran, some analysts are already calling wolf.
Truth, however, is slightly different. Four, six or even ten carriers don’t present a big threat. Kyle Mizokami gives ten reasons why we shouldn’t fear the Chinese. Norman Polmar also uses similar arguments. But over all that, over the difference in quality, quantity and experience, it would be the fact of China being more likely a friend than a foe.
Much more dangerous than a few carriers looks the possibility of the Chinese modifying ICBMs to target Western carriers. They never have said so, but a carrier is the only target possible that meets the description of a “big mobile sea target”. Either is that or the golf ball. But again, although it may be scary, is not something worth to worry. Many nations, including Australia, the UK and India already have anti-carriers measures. But these kinds of weapons are considered more a defensive mean than an offensive one. So, unless the US plans to attack China (and they don’t), there is nothing to fear.
The most imminent threat to the Americans may come from Korea. As demonstrated this week, its nuclear program and its ballistic missiles program make them the biggest menace to region stability. But of course, Korea doesn’t need any kind of advertising, Kim il-Jong already does his job now and then to make sure everyone notices him.
The USA and Russia, with endangered economies because of the economic instability, seem keen to go forward with the disarment programs. Not for the Asia-Pacific region.
The approach from Medvedev and Obama looks logical. Not only from a strategic and military point of view, but also economically. In the end, if they can forget about the expensive expenditure of the Defense bill -specially the one derivated from the upkeeping of the nuclear deterrent- that could mean a huge relief for their bad economies. In the US there is even a debate around about if Obama should renounce to the “first strike”, something Americans never took out from the table. But the cuttings aren’t only in stuff. Also in staff, even at a senior level.
On the other hand, the threats from our father’s times are over. Now we won’t need big armies to confront other armies in at least twenty years time. In fact, today’s battleground is an asymmetrical warfare, with invisible foes that attack and retreat like the smoke, and where versatility, mobility and adaptability of small unit is essential. Both, the USA and Russia are working in that way. Also the UK follows the path. And even though the US Army wouldn’t do anything else but maintenance for the oncoming years, they will be without doubt the most powerful force on Earth, even more than all his foes together.
But the Americans aren’t just maintaining the arms. It’s the biggest bill of all armies. The US spends in defense 4.6 times more than the Chinese, 7.7 times more than the Russians, 85.2 times more than Iran and 100 times more than North Korea. The difference for this year is that although it is still growing, it grows less.
Not in Asia. Here, it doesn’t only grow, but sometimes growths even more than in previous years. Up until some point it’s understandable. Asia is the hottest part of the planet right now, where most of the conflicts and instability regimes are (letting aside Africa), from Burma to Sri Lanka. Also where most of tomorrow’s threats are, from Iran to the DPRK. And even where today’s conflicts are taking place, like Afghanistan and Pakistan.
So many problematic people together cannot be good. That’s why, imitating the Europeans, America and Russia after WWII, most of the countries in the region are rearming themselves heavily. Just in case, for what could happen in the future. The dates are fixed, as demonstrated by the new Australian Defense white paper and the Chinese PLAN: 2030.
Iran is a crystal clear example of this. Behind the threatening rethorics of Ahmadinejad, facts are that its power up to date can only endanger weak neighbors. It doesn’t matter what Israel tries to sell us with the fear policy; Iran doesn’t represent a threat today for the West.
Today. But tomorrow it can. Iran is planning the basis for what can be the biggest menace for Israel in all its modern history, and made the mullahs capable of face the Jews without any kind of complexes. The tools are being developed: nuclear weapons, ICBMs and drones to deliver the package.
But probably, the biggest problem is not in Iran itself but in its eastern border: the Af-Pak. The irony of this comes out from the fact that, what started as an operation to stabilize a country and kick the Talibans out from a Government has derivated in a fight to avoid the Talibans taking control of another country in more dangerous conditions.
The fall of Pakistan in hands of a fundamentalist regime would be a huge backstep not only in Washington, but also in Tehran, New Delhi, Tel Aviv and even Beijing or Moscow. It’s not only the problem of having a haven for terrorists, with the back from a state. There is too the threat of Pakistan’s nukes.
Between 60 and 150 weapons, plus the missiles to put them anywhere in a few hundreds miles around, could fall into the hands of some crazy guys whose wet dreams are about that. The threat looks real. At least, real enough to make Washington prepare a plan B to take over the nukes in case Pakistan’s State fails.
Before this perspective, the traditional guardians of the West -although some Japanese may disagree on this- are rearming themselves too for what may come.
Japan, mentioned above, plans the biggest remodelation of their Armed Forces since World War II. Not only a material one, but spiritually and in essence. After WWII, as their name states, Japanese army is only an Autodefence army, just for defensive means and not expansive as the previous empire. But just a few years ago, Japan started to go abroad, always keeping in mind avoiding the direct combat, however. Now, Japan’s army has have presence in Iraq and Japanese navy sails the East coast of Africa to patrol the waters and keep them free of pirates.
Of course, we don’t have to go so far to find the biggest problem for Japan: Korea. The DPRK and its missile and nuclear programs represent a big pain in the arse in the backyard. That’s why the main expenses in Japanese defense budget runs along anti-missile systems. Japanese navy is the only foreign navy, together with the Spanish, that has the AEGIS system integrated in their ships. Japan also has a vast network of Patriot launchers defending the cities and strategic areas of the country. And it’s studying the creation of an early warning satellite network.
If Japan is Korea’s Cerberus, India is Pakistan’s. Like we said in the post before, the danger of an Islamist Pakistan in the hands of fanatics with nuclear weapons is a real nightmare. And in spite of American plans to recover the weapons, is better to watch our backs before it happens. That’s why the Indian army is re-enforcing itself heavily. Examples of this are the new Sukhois, new indigenous tanks (plus new T-90 Russian tanks), and two new carriers by 2010.
This expenditure, however, carries on some risks too. As we have said here in Worldwide before, India and Pakistan are playing a dangerous game in an arms race. An increase in India’s military budget may be seen in Pakistan as a new threat. And that may launch the Pakistan army into the hands of the Talibans. Even more than now.
And although India may be powerful, and Japan so, and others like Singapore, who is buying second hand Eagles, is irrelevant if compared to the combined power of the foes. And they lack of regional leadership and strength. Here is when it comes all to Australia.
The new Australian Defence white paper plans a remodelation of Australian armed forces from now to 2030. This would be the biggest -and more expensive- since WWII also for the Australians.
Priority for Australians, as said by their Premier, is to play the role of the USA in the Pacific. This is, becoming a regional superpower capable of facing China any potential risk and to defend themselves from a “direct attack”.
It’s surprising, however, to see Australia spending cash they don’t have, specially when the rest of the world is cutting costs everywhere. But truth is that, although maybe it won’t be possible to accomplish all the demands, Australia has a big relieve to his economy in his mining industry. Ironically, the main buyer is China. That allows the Australian run a bit faster than others in these economically confusing times.
To the increase in the Afghanistan expenditure, we have to add up a close co-operation with New Zealand. Australia also will bet for air power. Just last month, Mr. Rudd’s government announced they will buy more Super Hornets, more Growlers, upgrade the current fleet and up to 100 more JSF. Even the Raptor has attracted their attention (unsuccessfully).
However, the biggest push comes from the Navy, like other countries in the area. The submarine fleet will double the present size, from 6 to 12 -although there will persist the present problem of how to supply those subs with crew. It’s also contemplated the acquisition of a few surface ships, including 8 new frigates, a carrier and a few hundred choppers to supply them.
But is all this necessary? In Beijing no one sees this plan as a threat. And letting aside a few exceptions, neither the West thinks like that. As we said before, it’s more plausible to have China as a friend to count on (like with the six party negotiations with Korea) rather than as a foe. It’s worth then to ask if Australia really need such an expensive military bill in a so instable economic climate. But of course, it’s easy to say this when Iran, Pakistan, the DPRK and China are more than 10 hours away in a plane and not in your backyard.
London was calling. The G20 arrived, saw it and... Well, about the winning, not so much. It was an easy forecast. London summit hasn’t solved anything. To be fair, it wasn’t meant to anyway. Is not a lot what you can achieve in just one day. Only -maybe- set up the rules for an economic recovery. And that, we will see if so.
Who has been seen -and heard- high, clearly and loudly have been the protesters who invaded London during the two days of the summit. “Remember, remember; the Fifth of November”. Like in Guy Fawkes’ day, like in “V for vendetta”. If someone achieved their goal filling up frontpages in the newspapers, they were the ones. With the invaluable help -some say- from the City police.
About the financial breackdown, not a lot. The Chinese arrived in the summit asking for more decision power in the IMF (without increasing their contribution) and a global currency. None of that had an echo on the rest of the participants. They also were demanding more aid to the Third World countries, specially those in Africa (where their flow of business increases exponentially every year). Here they got a negative and a reprimand from both the Africans, but also from the G20 leaders.
On the French-German side, Sarkozy and Merkel won the petition asking for a tighter supervision of the high risk inversion funds, the hedge funds. On the other side, they got (initially) no favorable response for a list of tax havens, but at least from now on they will have to be more transparent. It doesn’t seem like a difficult task. The difficult would have been to push them into being less transparent, that could have been fun.
Neither Obama -and Japan, and in a lesser way, Britain- got his demands fully accomplished. No global bailouts.
The IMF, on the other hand, will have a great portion of the cake. To be exacts, more than a trillion dollars. Half of it will be for the IMF itself, $250 billons would go into special funds like the ones that already supplied Iceland and Bulgary with money to bailout their countries. The rest of it, will go to ease the markets and trade. Oh, and a small consolation prize for Obama and Brown: another $5 tr. to spend until the end of 2010 in stimulus plans. Don’t say there is no money in the bank.
But however, the main comments were around the photos in the summit. First about the First Dames’ photo. It was almost impossible to make a complete photo with all of them. Of course, there were a few absences before starting. The star of the crew, Carla Bruni-Sarkozy, didn’t travel to London. Neither did the husbands of Angela Merkel or Cristina Fernandez de Kirtchner. And Sonsoles Espinosa (Spanish First Dame) didn’t appeared for the photos.
Then was the turn for the protagonists of the summit. Three times had to be shot the official photo until it came as it should. First, Canadian Prime Minister was missing. Then, it was Berlusconi the one missed. Finally, at the end of the afternoon, it could be made.
But back to the economics, let’s be optimistic. Maybe this is not “the day that the world came together, to fight back against the global recession” with “a plan” and a “clear timetable”, as Gordon Brown said. That is what the Premier wanted it to be and he couldn’t have. But at least, the basis for the new financial and economic rules are settle. Now, it is time to develop them.
Oh, and the Europeans finally made it to the photo with Obama. That’s important too.
Update: There is already a "black list" of tax havens, made by the OCDE and shown via the WSJ. The habitual suspects like Andorra or the Cayman Islands appear on it. There is as well a "grey list" (Other financial centers) with Switzerland, Belgium and others on it.
Update 2: Berlusconi couldn’t make it to the photo group at first, but he got at the end another one much more interesting.
- Two American journalists detained in North Korea.
- Watch out! Let's don't put ETA's cons in jails near to the Basque Country. That could drive us into another peace process. And we don't want that, do we? El Mundo dixit.
Australian Government decided this week which aircraft will become the backbone of the RAAF for the next decade. At the beginning, it was thought that Oz would buy the JSF, as the F-22 Raptor (the first option) cannot be sold outside the US. But both jets are getting a bumpy trip to the market.
In fact, the Raptor is already calling wolf to save itself. After being reduced once and again the number of aircrafts the USAF will acquire, Pentagon is out of ideas of what to do to pledge for more Raptors. So now they link the jet production to the loss of jobs. Give us Raptors or people will lose their jobs.
The message is so good (although not quite accurate with reality) that both the Navy and the Army are using the same system to beg for more funding for their submarines and tanks, respectively.
But at the end, it seems like the JSF will lose another buyer. Wallabies decided to bet for an ol’ known: the Hornet. Well, the Super Hornet. Well, actually, the Growler.
Reasons argued for this decision were that the Growler cost much less than the others (it is just an update of the already purchased Super Hornets) and they get in exchange Electronic Warfare and Counter Terrorism/Insurgent Warfare capabilities.
Of course, the fact that a Growler shot down a Raptor in an air-to-air combat dogfight exercise was not relevant. In the end, shooting down Raptors (the most advanced jet ever built) is becoming very usual.
For the USA, the exit from Iraq finally looks close in the calendar. The news about the deployment in Afghanistan came by the hand of the announcement of the withdrawn from Iraq. At the end, two thirds of the troops on the ground will be at home -or at a new home at the other side of Iran- by August 2010. In the Tigris valley they will remain around 50,000 soldiers, many of them for training purposes.
Britons are also pulling out from Iraq this year. In fact, the withdrawn has already began. Just now that in London politicians are arguing about the documents and tapes of meetings about Iraqi invasion that right now are being unclasified.
But some will stay in Iraq for long. Like mercenaries. They will continue keeping peace -their way- and writing excellent rimes in the latrines of hell for a while. On the American side, also a lot of heavy equipment -mainly attack helicopters will remain in Iraq.
Anyway, in less than a year, Iraq will have to deal mostly on his own with his own problems. The transfer of power has already began. In April -two weeks ahead- the control of the sunni militia “The Sons of Iraq” will be in government hands, in what is one of the biggest gambles and a great risk for the future of the country. The transfer of equipment is also going on.
But what Iraq really needs is to start forming itself as a country. Internally, there is the risk that after the Americans leave (or even before) the Tigris valley will implode into a civil war. The problem is not Al Qaeda; it is Kirkuk, the Kurds and their relationship with Maliki’s central Government. The first ones wants more self Gevernment but Maliki fears a secession and that keeps him from converting Iraq in a Federal country.
In foreign policy he doesn’t look so afraid. Soon he will welcome new Obama’s ambassador for Iraq. Right now is in a tour in Australia, thanking this country for their sacrifice in the Middle East. And the President, Mr. Talabani, is now in Tehran in an ECO (Economic Cooperation Organization) summit with more regional leaders, including Turkish and Iranians.
But the biggest threat is, as we said before, at home. The death toll of civilians rises everyday and it doesn’t look that it’s going to be better in the future. And still, they have to juggle between foreign interests and home interests like with the shoe thrower incident. It is still unclear how Iraqis will “celebrate” the three years jailing against what they consider a national hero.
Australia is these days under fire. The high temperatures on record this summer have set up fires all around the South East of the country. The death toll has risen to more than 170 at the time of publishing this and the Government expects more bodies remaining in the ashes.
Human tragedies run along with the ecological loss. Not only for the obvious burnt of trees and bushes, but also for the animal deaths. However, hope sometimes appears in between firefighters’ desperation in the form of a survivor. Like Sam, a koala nationwidely famous after surviving the hell of the fires.
The material losses are of around $2 billion. Australian Government has started to do something by sending the Army to combat the bush fire and promising aid to the affected ones. It is more than what will get the 160 people that died in a fire blast in Kenya. But as almost always happens, it is the Australian people who has been more deeply involved from the beginning.
They were the own Australians the first ones to fight the fires, in the frontline just besides the firefighters and the Army. In a country isolated and used to deal for themselves with their own problems, its people learnt how to solve everything without waiting for the help from the Queen.
Even inter-county solidarity has been a keen example of what should be done. An example provided with some irony: the victims from Queen Island’s floods (after the cyclone Ellie) will donate some of the aid they got for their own reconstruction to the victims of the fires. They could lend them some water as well.
However, the fire continues growing. The high number of deaths and the suspicion of the provocated origin of some of the fires made the Australian executive make of the burnt areas a crime scene, waiting for the test that expert forensics will run in search for evidences. Some prefer not to wait for the evidences and start blaming the offender, with more imagination than wisdom, if I have to say.
9/28/2009
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