Tic tac for Iran

The USA starts to be impatient about Iran, However, maybe that impatience has more to do with Israel push than with Iran itself.

Hillary Clinton, Secretary of State, warned Iran that Obama’s offer for dialogue won’t be over the table forever, waiting for them. However, Iranians have more to worry about now inside their own borders as recognizes even Obama. So, it doesn’t seem it’s gonna change in the next weeks.

Israel is something apart. They don’t follow the American way. Obama has asked Netanyahu to wait til the end of the year to see the reaction from the mullahs, but will they? The fact of the German intelligence services -the same Intelligence Services that screwed up with Iraq- saying that Iran can have the bomb in six months doesn’t help either. It’s not new (the possibility was already known by the CIA), but just a reminder of it allows the Israelis to push further.

Plus, the hawkish government in Israel never was willing to wait for so long. Last week, in a rare action during the day and on the surface, a Dolphin class Israeli submarine crossed Suez into the Red Sea. A few days later, two gunships followed him. All of them and specially the Dolphin are equipped with long range missiles for land attacks. The movement was seen as a pressure push on Iran.

Also, since months ago, Israel has been doing war drills among the population, military exercises and aerial tests. Even real operations, like the attack on a weapons convoy in Sudan at the beginning of the year, a mirror of what could happen in Iran. Also, Israel’s F-16 and F-15 have been remodeled to increase their action range and they have already fully tested the newly F-16I (pictured) with an action range even greater.

All this could be nothing by itself, but Saudi Arabia also has given a nod for the IAF jets to cross their air space for a raid on Iran. Probably the fact of the Saudis hating Iran even more than Israel has been fundamental for this decision.

On the other side, in Iran they have taken seriously an air attack threat. In fact, a month ago, an air exhibition was cancelled in the last minute under the fear of the Israelis launching an attack that could have eliminated completely the Iranian air power, then concentrated all in one point.

But although the provocation is real, the attack may not be so imminent. Apart from the technical complexity, there are the political issues, specially with the USA and the EU. An attack on the region could cause umpredictable consequences and America and -specially- Europe won’t be too happy to be in that position.

Europe has already realized that Israel doesn’t listen, never; and it’s not gonna support Israel. The Americans, on the other hand, won’t let Israel alone, but neither will they go to war with them.

This time, if Netanyahu wants to fire up the region, he will have to get the matches for himself.



Photo. GlobalSecurity.org

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