Holidays round

I’m not too eager of stopping working for long (journalism is more a lifestyle than a business, although others may have a different opinion). But sometimes it’s good to take a break. And that’s what I’m going to do from today.

Meanwhile, here are the main issues to follow during the next two weeks:

- Iraq: No more multi-national task force in Iraq. Instead, from today on, it will be just a sole force of one country, exclusively American.

- Iran: Yesterday was the 40th day anniversary of Neda Soltan’s death. Tehran saw again thousands in the streets mourning those killed in the repression by the government forces. And the Basiji, again, fought them back violently. At least 20 people died during last month post-electoral clashes.

But the scars are still fresh. An Iranian court urged the police to present charges against those detained (hundreds of them) and finally around two dozens will be prosecuted. Another prominent reformist was moved from his cell to a government house where he will be under house arrest.

It’s to expect a surge in the clashes again for the next weeks.

- Afghanistan/Pakistan: Helmand offensive still goes on. Yesterday, two British soldiers were killed and the casualty report doesn’t make anything but grow. The near Presidential election, due the 20th of August, promises a few busy weeks ahead. Karzai will win again, almost for sure, but his popularity is decreasing. The Talibans have already called for a boycott of the polls.

Meanwhile, in the southern country the drone wars go on. A recent attack killed, according to the CIA, one of Osama bin Laden’s son. The operations in Swat valley, carried on by Pakistani militaries with assistance from the Americans, have allowed thousands of refugees to go back to their homes, avoiding what could have been the worst refugee crisis since Rwanda.

But the Taliban menace persists. Pakistan signed yesterday a deal with Tajikistan to secure the region, cooperate in security matters and blahblahblah. So beautiful; the ‘Stans fighting together...

And just in case the Taliban weren’t enough trouble, a separatist group from Balochistan started to attack foreign aid workers in the area.

- China: The Uighur revolt still is on the frontpages. China revealed last week official numbers for killed and detainees. Detentions that today are still going on.

Also abroad. While the Chinese government was exchanging opinions with Obama and messages with Taiwan -both signs of aperture of the regime-, it was angrily criticizing the words of the Uighur exile leader and the projection of an Uighur documentary in a movie festival in Australia.

Australia, by the way, is engaged in another nasty diplomatic clash with China regarding a few wallabie employees of Rio Tinto detained in a spy case. The problem for those employees is that they revealed data from Chinese companies to their partners abroad. Data that is open source in China. This puts over the edge hundreds of consultants. What to do now? Where is the limit about what to publish and what not?

And if they survive that, still can be themselves into a collective illnes inside their company.

- Horn of Africa: With the comeback of somalian pirates, the region should have enough. There is even a new videogame about it. But this is Africa. There is never enough trouble.

Knowing that -or maybe collaborating to that- the USA has intensified his pressure over Eritrea and his support for the Islamist groups operating in Somalia. Yet a hypothetic deal sounds like a far dream.

Meanwhile, America plays a wild card strongening his presence in the area through the semi-autonomus region of South Sudan. Members of the newly created South Sudanese Air Force -no planes yet- were training this week in the USA. South Sudan is undergoing through a rearming process as the recent images of Faina’s tanks found in the region prove it.

- Rest of Africa: In Nigeria, clashes between Islamist militias and government forces in the north of the country left 150 deaths. The ambushes are still taken place.

In South Africa, newly elected President Zuma has abruptly ended his honeymoon with his voters. A massive strike shook the country during this week.

Meanwhile, a new campaign has been launched by a Namibian NGO. “Lords of bling” tries to remind the African leaders their promise to spend at least a 15% of the money in healthcare, a measure long forgotten by most of the African Union signers of it. The signer Akon has designed this song to remind that fact to the African presidents.



- Israel/Palestine: The settlements center the debate. International pressure grows as the US envoy to the region increases the talks too. Netanyahu agreed yesterday to destroy 900 houses in an East Jerusalem colony.

Inside Israel sensibilities around this are also changing. Some analysts consider Israel’s image abroad is being heavily damaged by the settlements (smart guy). Some settlers even are speaking out and admit they would leave in exchange for the money spent in their homes and similar conditions somewhere else inside Israel. Some others, not so.

What doesn’t change is Netanyahu’s hawkish government. The last idea is ask demand the Netherlands and the UK to stop giving funds to the NGO Breaking the Silence, who has done some research of alleged Human Rights violations in Gaza by the IDF. Next will be to point European governments how they should spend their money.

And meanwhile the Netanyahu’s government asks Holland and the UK to stop funding pro-Human Rights NGOs, their allies from the far right ask the IDF soldiers to cover up for the abuses committed in the West Bank.

On the northside, the IDF has been put on alert after Lebanon forces were movilized too. However, Israelí officials consider unlikely a reedition of 2006 Hezbollah-Israel war, specially now with so many international forces in the zone.

On the other hand, in Gaza, Hamas starts to apply their particular vision of government. Up until now, Palestinian women could consider themselves lucky. I was actually talking about this recently with a Palestinian friend. While Saudi Arabian women cannot drive a car or meet with strangers, Palestinian women can do that and even wear trousers, the head uncovered or -if they want, and also the men- buy alcohol.

All that could be about to change. A judge has ordered in Gaza to all the female lawyers to wear a head scarf. It is just an example of many more that are showing Hamas’ Islamist hand in Gaza. Like restrictions with alcohol or the new religious police. Here an Al Jazeera video on it:



- Latinamerica: Honduras’ political turmoil doesn’t look well. But at least negotiations are moving up. Slower than a sloth, but moving up. Zelaya is in Nicaragua’s border from where he visits periodically his supporters. Meanwhile the interim government is more and more in lack of support. Abroad, the USA revoked several diplomatic visas. Internally, the Army admitted the predisposition to accept a unity government with Zelaya in front. Last word is Micheletti’s.

Further to the south, Colombia and Venezuela are again fighting. This time, a few Swedish grenade launchers were the detonant of the diplomatic turmoil. The weapons, sold by Sweden to Venezuela, ended up being discovered in a FARC’s camp. After that, the usual crossfire between governments and Hugo Chavez’s usual recall of ambassadors.




And basically that’s all. Add some narco fights in Mexico and a political fight in Burma (Google this, I’m tired of linking news today) and you have enough to be busy for these two weeks I’ll be out.

So, until then... Be good, have fun, and don’t do anything I wouldn’t.




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When Bush didn’t want to meet Osama’s son

We already knew that Bush Administration did it bad. Really bad. We knew it already. But what we haven’t been able to see until the Republicans left the White House is how close they were to screw it up completely sometimes.

Now and then the press shows details of the incompetence of Bush’s team. Especially in the case of Donald Rumsfeld. A few months ago we knew Rummy was really close to blow up the mission in Afghanistan -and jeopardize American soldiers’ lifes there. Later, we learnt that he identified the occupation in Iraq as a Christian crusade, quotating the Bible to justify his decisions.

Today, Time magazine reports how the United States refused to capture alive Saad bin Laden, fourth son of Osama.

Saad was reportedly killed last week in Pakistan-Afghanistan border in a drone attack, according to the CIA. However, since 2003 he had been under house arrest in Iran. The Mullahs offered to handover Osama’s son, alive, to the Americans as soon as they knew who he was.

In exchange, Tehran wanted some of the heads of the terrorist group MEK, refugees in a camp near to Baghdad in Iraq. They are, by the way, the same ones that this week were ousted with violence by Iraqi security forces. They probably will face the expulsion from the country, but not to Iran.

Iran made the offer to Washington several times from 2003 to 2008, but the Americans refused it. Five years later, in late 2008 and after losing his value as bluechip prisoner, Saad and several other al-Qaeda commanders were released in the Pakistan border. A few months later, a drone operative who killed several civilians was needed to eliminate Saad.

Great move, Mr. Bush.



Photo: Family Guy/Fox


Related: When Obama met Osama

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Pirates are businessmen

An excellent interview from Scott Carney appeared in Wired magazine's Danger Room throws some light on the piracy business. Just a couple of examples of the great work done by Scott:

"The financiers are the most important since they organize and plan the big shot operations and are able to pay running cost[s]. Financiers always need to forge deals with traders, land cruiser owners, translators, business people to keep the supplies flowing during operations and manage the logistics. There is a long supply chain involved in every hijacking".

"Hostages — especially Westerners — are our only assets, so we try our best to avoid killing them. It only comes to that if they refuse to contact the ship’s owners or agencies. Or if they attack us and we need to defend ourselves".

"Every government in the world is off our coasts. What is left for us? Nine years ago everyone in this town was stable and earn[ed] enough income from fishing. Now there is nothing. We have no way to make a living. We had to defend ourselves. We became watchmen of our coasts and took up our duty to protect the country. Don’t call us pirates. We are protectors".

The complete interview, here.


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Winning hearts to win the war

Major operations to control Afghanistan have ended, and they have been a success. At least that’s what David Miliband, the head of British diplomacy, said. But you know, journalist have learned to take carefully politicians’ words when they talk about “the end of major operations”.

The ongoing offensive in Helmand province tries to clean the Taliban strongholds from the cities and secure them ahead next month’s Presidential polls. It’s a mirror-shaped operation of the battle of Fallujah, in Iraq, who led the resistance out of the city. And like then, casualties have rocketed to a record-hit since 2001 invasion.

The truth is that in Helmand combats are still taking place between NATO forces and the Taliban. However, in Badghis, a remote province close to the Iranian border, a truce has been reached with the help of the region’s elders. It’s a strategy that Gen. McChrystal wants to spread to other provinces.

Let’s hope that the outcome is not the same as in Badghis. There, only hours after the truce was signed, Afghan police forces went under fire from the Taliban. Badghis province had been a quiet place until last year, when the Taliban surge increased significantly. The Spaniards are about to boost their deployed force with an extra 450 boots -almost a 50% more of what they have there now-, but it is only a temporary solution while the elections are taking place next August 20.

There will be needed more commitment than that if NATO forces are to control, at least, the urban areas of the country -which even now the West struggles to accomplish. And not only more boots in the ground, but also more gear. Britain knows the pain of the lack of choppers.

Sometimes, however, the lack of gear is beneficial for the troops. As Danger Room reports, the lack of phones and Internet in an isolated US military outpost makes the soldiers stay more focused in their job, which is translated into less casualties and more interaction with the locals. And in fact, that’s the definitive way to win this war: by gaining the local hearts.

Both sides are engaged in a war behind the scenes aimed to gain people’s trust. The Americans announced today that in a shift in their policies, they won’t be publishing anymore the number of insurgents and Taliban they kill in their attacks. According to Rear Adm. Gregory Smith, it only contributes to “extend the time it takes to bring about an end to the insurgency”.

On the other side, Al Jazeera reported today on a book laying a code of conduct for Taliban fighters written possibly by Mullah Omar. Apart from a determination to centralise the power in just one commander -himself-, Omar draws some ethic lines for all Taliban commanders in order to gain popularity, or at least not lose it, among civilians.

The book includes guidelines on suicide bombers’ attacks, keeping them from being used against “lower and useless targets” and ordering commanders to put an extra effort “to avoid civilian casualties”. Those directions include also how to treat the prisoners, stating that “whenever any official, soldier, contractor or worker of the slave government is captured, these prisoners cannot be attacked or harmed” and banning any ransom payment.

But the clear aim of the book comes out to light when it describes the way a mujahideen must behave:

“The mujahideen have to behave well and show proper treatment to the nation, in order to bring the hearts of civilian Muslims closer to them. The mujahideen must avoid discrimination based on tribal roots, language or geographic background.”

Those are practically the same words that were in a recent release from NATO alliance, aiming to decrease the number of civilian casualties in order to win the heart of the people.

Yet NATO attacks left more civilian casualties last year than the Taliban, and here is where the war is being lost by the West. Late changes from Gen. McChrystal and the Pentagon aimed to shift that trend and probably, of the success of that strategy shift -already applied in Iraq- depends the future of this war.



Photo: Charuel / Sipa


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Friendly fire 27/07/09

- India gets into the selected club of Navies with indigenous built nuclear submarines. It’s just the frontline of what’s still to come, an improvement of the Indian Navy that will include an increase from the actual 140 vessels to the 170 planned. That includes two more nuclear subs and two indigenous carriers.

- Korea continues playing; now they accept to talk about their nuclear program.

- Sarko collapses while jogging. Did he saw a hot chick jogging besides him? Fortunately, it was all just a scarce.

- Obama starts pushing for a deal in the Middle East. Meanwhile, back at home, Sarah Palin resigns; but not without a fight.

- Iranian courts are pushing in favor of the detainees: their future must be decided within a week or be released. Ahmadinejad, may be busy for the last days of his government. Unless he has to quit over a confidence vote from the Parliament.




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Soccer game or tear gas?

A few days ago we showed here the new ad from an Israeli company, showing a soccer game between Palestinians (not shown) and Israeli soldiers over the separation wall. Here is the ad:



However, the real test is slightly different:




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Neda’s rebirth

Just after a month of Neda’s death, Iranians came to the streets again. And again, the Basijis and the detentions were there too.

It’s not gonna be the biggest demonstration in the next few days. Probably, in a week and a half (when it will be the end of the duel period), in two Fridays, it will be bigger. But this, at least, shows Khamenei that his words are everyday less and less important to the people and Ahmadinejad that his reign won’t be easy.

Up until now, protesters had developed an underground boycott. Like the blackout of last night between 20.55 and 21.00 (local time) to remember Neda. Or the (unsuccessful) attempt to make a public blackout by connecting at the same time all the high consuming electronic items.

It has also continued -even though the house arrests and the house intimidations- with the night shouting from the roofs. Only that the initial “Allahu Akbar” (God is great) has become “Death to the dictator” and "Freedom".

But Ahmadinejad and Khamenei live so far away from their people that they don’t hear their scream. And that could be their end, specially for the latter.



Photo: AFP

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Kim’s health

The North Korean regime has distributed a recent photo of Kim Jong-il to prove the bad guys from the West that rumors putting Kim in a coffin soon are not true. Well, I have to admit that at least Kim looks better than the three military men behind him (specially the first from the left)




Photo: elmundo.es

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July, bloody July

July is already the bloodiest month for NATO troops in Afghanistan since the invasion of 2001. Until now there are 52 the casualties of the coalition, counting just the military. Far from the previous record of 46 deaths in August last year. And we still haven’t finish July yet.

The increase on casualties is understandable if we focus on the big picture. First, this month a new offensive was launched in Helmand province, to secure it before next month’s elections. And second, the policy for air strikes have become tighter, limiting the use of these tactics.

House by house combats and the necessity to be sure 100% before calling the air cavalry in may have lowered the amount of civilian casualties, but they also increase the risk for our soldiers. And our own casualties.

Not only boots on the ground have been hit, also the skies. This week, and American F-15E Strike Eagle crashed in the south of Afghanistan causing the death of his two airmen. It’s almost impossible to have been shot down by enemy fire, but it’s a valuable loss.

Few planes have been lost in Afghanistan -although this month two more, another Strike Eagle and a British Tornado, crashed too- where Western jets reign on the skies. Something apart are choppers.

The previous week a contractor chopper was shot down by the Talibans. It was a Mi-26, the biggest military helicopter in Afghanistan, operated by Ukrainian crew and under a Moldovan flag company.

It is not the first of these kinds of incidents to happen. Choppers aren’t as well protected as jets, and civil choppers are even more vulnerable to RPGs. They rarely have missile alert systems, electronic countermeasures, chaffs or flares; and if they have them, they have to be activated by a civilian crew not as well prepared as a military crew.

However, contractor helicopters aren’t the only ones to suffer casualties. This week, a military chopper had to make an emergency landing after being attacked. In all the cases cited, the official version states that they were deploying humanitarian aid to the population. But the operations being carried on in the region may suggest that they were supporting the troops on the ground instead.

Just in case, the UK has taken a safety distance from those incidents. They already have too much to worry about. But truth is that British choppers are now in the center of the debate. The opposition is charging hard against Gordon Brown with this.

David Cameron has accused the Premier of being using just 30 of the over 500 choppers the UK has, endangering troops life in the ground. The UK indeed has many unused choppers, but lacks of pilots and crews for them. But that doesn’t matter too much for the partisan fights back at home. Cameron’s voice joined that of many militaries and that of the Defense MPs’ committee.

Americans are dealing too with a big problem at home and on the ground, but their lack is not of equipment but moral. A great punch from the Taliban came when it was known that an American soldier, Private Bowe Bergdahl, has been kidnapped and the Islamists warned with assassinate him if the operations continued. The US Army has distributed leaflets among the Afghans with the hope to find him.

However, back at home, some are letting him down. A journalist argued that Bergdahl may have deserted and called for the execution of the American soldier to save some paperwork when he’s back. It’s, by the way, the same journalist that asked for a marquee letter for the army to shoot on those journalists not embedded with the American policy or methods.

All this give a bit pessimistic view on Afghanistan. Truth is that security has improved. Insurgency is still strong out of Kabul and Taliban’s propaganda still works, specially after the deadly drone attacks. But the presence of more troops on the ground and the sense of a bit more freedom is awakening the Afghans slowly and sometimes they are even confronting the Talibans.

But it is still in the air a sensation of this war being made on the move, with no planning. Still more soldiers are deployed in Iraq than Afghanistan. Maybe when this changes situation will improve, but for now it’s to expect more sacrifices for the NATO troops.



Photo, David Guttenfelder / AP

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Tic tac for Iran

The USA starts to be impatient about Iran, However, maybe that impatience has more to do with Israel push than with Iran itself.

Hillary Clinton, Secretary of State, warned Iran that Obama’s offer for dialogue won’t be over the table forever, waiting for them. However, Iranians have more to worry about now inside their own borders as recognizes even Obama. So, it doesn’t seem it’s gonna change in the next weeks.

Israel is something apart. They don’t follow the American way. Obama has asked Netanyahu to wait til the end of the year to see the reaction from the mullahs, but will they? The fact of the German intelligence services -the same Intelligence Services that screwed up with Iraq- saying that Iran can have the bomb in six months doesn’t help either. It’s not new (the possibility was already known by the CIA), but just a reminder of it allows the Israelis to push further.

Plus, the hawkish government in Israel never was willing to wait for so long. Last week, in a rare action during the day and on the surface, a Dolphin class Israeli submarine crossed Suez into the Red Sea. A few days later, two gunships followed him. All of them and specially the Dolphin are equipped with long range missiles for land attacks. The movement was seen as a pressure push on Iran.

Also, since months ago, Israel has been doing war drills among the population, military exercises and aerial tests. Even real operations, like the attack on a weapons convoy in Sudan at the beginning of the year, a mirror of what could happen in Iran. Also, Israel’s F-16 and F-15 have been remodeled to increase their action range and they have already fully tested the newly F-16I (pictured) with an action range even greater.

All this could be nothing by itself, but Saudi Arabia also has given a nod for the IAF jets to cross their air space for a raid on Iran. Probably the fact of the Saudis hating Iran even more than Israel has been fundamental for this decision.

On the other side, in Iran they have taken seriously an air attack threat. In fact, a month ago, an air exhibition was cancelled in the last minute under the fear of the Israelis launching an attack that could have eliminated completely the Iranian air power, then concentrated all in one point.

But although the provocation is real, the attack may not be so imminent. Apart from the technical complexity, there are the political issues, specially with the USA and the EU. An attack on the region could cause umpredictable consequences and America and -specially- Europe won’t be too happy to be in that position.

Europe has already realized that Israel doesn’t listen, never; and it’s not gonna support Israel. The Americans, on the other hand, won’t let Israel alone, but neither will they go to war with them.

This time, if Netanyahu wants to fire up the region, he will have to get the matches for himself.



Photo. GlobalSecurity.org

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Palestinian sweet future

During the last week several articles have appeared in international newspapers talking about the rebirth of Palestinian economy. Although rebirth is way too optimistic (there should had been something first to be able to rebirth), it has some sense. Most of the articles focused on Nablus city. It isn’t casual.

The small new hopes for Palestine have the shape of a new theatre, a festival and a World Guinness Record. The last one is for the world longest knafa, a traditional local dessert honored this way by 170 local bakers, who have made 74 m of sweetness.

However, like the knafa, Palestinian economic rebirth may be too sweet to allow us to see the whole pack. The West Bank needs still more freedom from Israel if they want to grow up. Plus it is just half of the Palestinian reality. The other one, in Gaza, suffers the Israeli blockade and the debris cleaning from the last Gaza war will last for at least one year.

It is true that in the West Bank things are, slowly, getting better. Five years ago I remember being myself in Nablus with serious shortages of entertaining offers, water and freedom of movement. Weekends were spent in Jasmine’s hotel’s terrace watching the Israeli jeeps below during curfews making arrests.

Today, however, pressure has been lowered. Still the problems persist, but a new cinema has opened, festivals arrive to the city, freedom of movement for the Palestinians have eased and the north checkpoint of the city has disappeared. And against those who claim that it could have ended in a disaster, the security has improved.

Most of the merit is for the Palestinian police officer. Created with European Union equipment and training (in Jordan), now they are a truly police force and not the paramilitaries that I met the first time. The efficiency of these officers to maintain the order surprised even the Israelis, when in the last winter they were able to keep the order on the streets even though the operation in Gaza.

But all that is just an illusion that sooner or later can break. Without taking into consideration Gaza, Israel should leave from the settlements in the West Bank if they want to avoid incidents. Sure, they are not as often as before (from more than 200 in 2004 to just 2 in 2008) but still sometimes, it happens.

However, Binyamin Netanyahu’s government seems decided to continue the expansion of settlements in the West Bank. They accepted to demolish 30 illegal (just those considered illegal by the Israel courts) settlements, but still goes on with plans to expand East Jerusalem colonies, even against the USA and the EU will.

The truth is that the situation doesn’t improve substantially in the West Bank and it gets worse in Gaza. The IMF warned about it on its last report on the region. And even inside Israel’s military recognizes and denounces abuses against the Palestinians.

At the other side of the wall, it doesn’t help that Fatah is more and more like a despotic Arab regime, more worried about keeping the chair than anything else. Last example came with the suspension of Al Jazeera broadcastings after airing an opinion contraire to Abbas.

Neither of them are democratic; neither of them are good for the Palestinians. Neither Hamas does it better implementing his new religious police forces -Iranian or Saudi Arabian style- in Gaza. And the ones who lose in between all this are the Palestinian people. Used by everyone for their own interests, once again.


Nablus from the Jasmine hotel, 2004.
Photo: me


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Rafsanjani

Rafsanjani finally spoke. Ando f course, Iranian opposition has seen the street light again. Rafsanjani is considered the biggest support for Mousavi and, although in Friday’s speech he didn’t attack directly the elite or the government -in fact he talked more about unity- he did leave a few words for them.

He praised, for example, for the immediate freedom for the detainees, the end of the prosecutions and the acceptance of the “doubts” emerged in a part of the Iranian society after the elections. Nothing new, it is what many influential people like the Parliament speaker Ali Larijani have been asking for for weeks. Supporters of a full scale revolution will be disappointed.

But the important issue here is the own Rafsanjani. It’s been the first time HE said it. Up until now, all was about rumors: maybe he was in Qom collecting supporters, maybe he was uniting the clergy against Ahmadinejad -or Khamenei-; but all those were only rumors.

Until this Friday. In his speech, Rafsanjani charged against the bad atmosphere lived in the country, without naming out anyone specifically. He didn’t need to name anyone, however; as it was clear who was the receiver of his message. And he couldn’t charge against the system itself, because in the end, he is just another piece of the puzzle -in fact, some analysts think he is just preparing himself for the Supreme Leader chair.

His speech, however, settles that he cannot live without the system but Iranian system cannot live without him. The place where he gave his speech -the same where Ayatollah Khamenei gave his after the election-, in the University, and the fact itself of him giving the speech proves it.

But although maybe the system cannot live without Rafsanjani, the Government can. Normally, the Friday speech is live broadcasted by the state TV. Last Friday, however, none of the five channels did it.

It really didn’t matter. Rafsanjani’s public wasn’t at home in front of the TV, but in the streets. Several times he had to stop his speech because of the chants -some against the current leader, some acclaiming him as leader. His words were the sparkle that ignited again the protests in Tehran to show Ahmadinejad their detractors may be more silent but still they are.

Of course, Khamenei also still is and he warned again against the opposition to expect consequences if the demonstrations continue. But his warnings sound every day more like a desperate call to keep the chair rather than the calming words of a beloved father and leader of the country. Specially inside Iran.



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Urgent: Obama 1 - Raptor 0

Obama wins. For now.

The Senate voted 58-40 on Tuesday to strip $1.75 billion for seven more F-22 fighters from a military spending bill, handing President Obama a crucial victory in his efforts to reshape the military’s priorities.

More on the NYT.

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Someday like today...

Someday like today 40 years ago, the whole world (even the Soviets) hold their breathe and waited to listen Armstrong's words...



Today is a day for celebration. For them. For the men and women before them. For the ones after them. And for those to come.




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Somalia’s return

During the past few months the international fleet that protects -just a way of speaking- Somalia’s coasts, have been really happy and proud of their job. “Assaults have been reduced”, they said. Even they made it to zero assaults for a month. But it was all an illusion. When the cash starts to be needed again and, most important, the monsoon disappears, pirates are back in business.

Nor the incident with Capt. Phillips, nor a greater military deployment were a match for the skiffs. Only bad weather could stop them. But with the clouds out of the horizon, pirates are free to sail again.

Back in land, the situation isn’t better either. Yesterday we knew that two French agents had been kidnapped by Islamic militias in the Sahafi Hotel. At first it was though they were journalists, but later it was told they are intelligence analysts training their Somali counterparts.

That Somali Army, however, is something more like a project than a real deal. After every coup, war, skirmish or change of power in Mogadishu, that army had to be remade. The only permanent competent force in Somalia assisting the Government, are the African Union (AU) peacekeepers. They control the Presidential Palace, a few Government buildings and what keeps the keepers alive: the port and airport, where they got the international aid and weapons.

In the clan war -or even sub-clan war sometimes- of Somalia, the AU soldiers have developed a slightly good job. Their biggest foe is the Al Shabab Islamic militias. The peacekeeper forces have, however, the fire power on their side. Compared to the American army they are very poor equipped but against the Al Shabab, they are freakin’ Stormtroopers.

One of the most important pieces of their arsenal are two old T-55 Soviet tanks. According to David Axe, captain Paddy Ankunda of the AU forces, told him two years ago that even if they never used them, having them there was always welcomed. Not for being used, but for let the people know they could use them.

Until now. This weekend, the peacekeepers were surrounded and they needed the tanks. The inclusion of the tanks itself is a great deal and a symptom of the escalation in the war in Somalia. In the end, it is a no-man’s land with hundreds of weapons running free around and nobody knows what will be the next movement on any side. Somalia is a land of guns, just an augmented mirror of what happens in the rest of Sub-Saharan Africa.

In fact, recently were discovered satellite images suggesting that Faina freighter’s tanks, which was seized by Somali pirates half a year ago (do you remember it?) and later released after a ransom payment, ended up in South Sudan Army. The same one who is in the edge of a war with Chad over Darfur, a region full of refugees (do you remember it?). And part of the country whose head of state is Omar Bashir, wanted for The Hague International Court (do you remember it?) under the accusation of sponsoring Islamic militias among other charges. The same Islamic militias Ethiopia and Somalian governments try to fight back at home. And the same Governments unable to put an end to piracy on their costs.

Everything is connected in this annoying Africa.



Photo: AP

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Darth Cheney

This Saturday we knew that Darth Dick Cheney had hidden from the Congress a CIA project aimed to create special commandos to eliminate Al Qaeda terrorists. A month ago, when Panetta knew about it, it was suspended.

It was indeed an ambitious plan. According to an intelligence official quote from the New York Times, these things are great in the movies, but when you try to put them on practice, it is not so easy. Indeed. In fact, the whole plan looks just as if it came out from a stoned mind after watching the Bourne movies’ trilogy.

However, the CIA didn’t renounce to their plans. If the mission was killing Al Qaeda leaders, it would be done. If it wasn’t possible to do so from two feet, it would be done from two thousand feet. They tried first to copy Israeli style of the after-Munich commandos but ended up copying Israeli style with Hamas selective assassinations. Jets, cruise missiles and drones took their place in.

Since then, the number of attacks on Al Qaeda leaders has rocketed. But of course, shooting from two thousand feet is not as accurate as doing it from two feet distance. So civilian casualties are too on their highest, obviously. It was the natural consequence if they were copying Israeli methods to have too Israeli consequences.

But the US can afford collateral damage if they want to appear before the population as a savior, not as an occupational empire. If they do so, they can end up as the Britons did during the last two centuries. Obama Administration already has made some steps to halt the drone wars or at least minimize the effects, but truth is that few has changed on the ground.

The head of Pakistani Talibans can talk about it. Just over the last weekend, at least four attacks in three days were aimed against Baitullah Mehsud. The Taliban commander, however, has a special nose to detect danger and has proved a great ability to dodge the missiles. Like the one that last week provoked around 60 casualties, the bloodiest drone attack in 2009.

However, going back to Cheney, there is something that doesn’t add up. If it was only for the hit squads, then why all the fuzz when it is being done anyway with drones? Why Panetta decided to close the project down when he knew of it? Why Cheney asks for confidentiality? Why all the attention?

Josh Marshalls makes the same question to himself. And he too sees that there must be something more, something dark in all this.

There's more to this story to be told.

(Kudos to David M. for the title)

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Nation at war

If something is characteristical in Britons while at war is their pride and unbeatable faith. For the last two centuries, the United Kingdom has been present in almost all of the armed conflicts that happened anywhere in the world. That allowed them to create the Imperial War Museum in London -and me to spend four hours in that place, a personal record inside a museum. But also, and most important, to educate its population to support, live and carry on with war.

Only that way it is understandable that after last week life loses, after the bloodiest month for Britain in Afghanistan, after passing the line and account more deaths than in Iraq and after losing their highest rank commander in 27 years; still, after all that, support for the war not only maintains but also grows. A year ago it was a 31%, today is a 46%. A 47% is against it, however.

In many other European countries, and even in the US, after a bloody week like last one, politicians would be talking about a withdrawal. Not about the fact of doing it, but how and when. Just a week ago, the Bundeswehr was strongly criticized because (as mostly other European forces in Afghanistan) they never go out from their bases. Too soft, they said. Well, the debate flamed up back in Germany; not about the mission but about how to not make war (and still be seen as trustfull allies).

The British forces, on the other hand, have been since the beginning of the war both in Iraq and Afghanistan in the hot zones. In the Gulf it was Basra and Fallujah. Here in Afghanistan is Hellmand province, the same that got all that media coverage now with the combined offensive of 4,000 US Marines (as in Fallujah). Combats in that area have been fiercely maintained for years, as shown in the video (below) and never could be claim completely by NATO forces. And despite that, support back in London continues.

The argument in London, in fact, goes into different ways. Like the cuts to the Defense budget and the protection for the soldiers. Against those accusations, Defense and Foreign Affairs Secretaries have joined forces to defend their positions, the Afghan war and the British Army before the public opinion.

Brown’s government argues that British soldiers are as protected as never had been before. But truth is that, while the US Army spends millions of dollars in mine resistant (MRAP) vehicles development and purchases, the British Army carries on with patches to old jeeps or on the way solutions. Choppers aren’t at hand always either, which had led into first time public attacks from David Cameron, the conservatives’ leader, with the Afghan issue as background.

When in 2001 British forces started patrolling in Afghanistan and later on Iraq, they did it ol’ style: no body armor, their green or red berets and on foot. After a few casualties, commanders learnt the lesson and started using vehicles, helmets and full body armor. If they learnt the lesson on foot, let’s hope they will too with the MRAPs. Either that or they will lose the battle. Home and abroad.



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Polishing European Politics

After last June European elections, the new European Parliament has already chosen his President. It will be Mr. Jerzy Buzek, former Polish Prime Minister and europarliamentary for the conservatives, the one in charge for the first two and a half years. Then, a socialdemocrat candidate will take the seat, as it was (but in reverse) during the last legislature.

Buzek is a symbol of the new Europe. He is the first President of the European Parliament who comes from a former Soviet-ally country. However, besides the challenges, changes end there. In the rest of the seats, there are few new faces.

Half of the total of 736 seats will repeat their occupant, and the European Commission will, presumably, be hosted again by Durao Barroso. The only major change is the turn to the right in the general map of the Parliament.

Those unchanged faces, anyway, will have to face many challenges. Yesterday we knew that two thirds of European habitats and species are under risk or their conservation state is undetermined. Add that to the considerable over schedule from various members in accomplish the yearly minimums for carbon emissions. A lot of work to do yet to fight climate change.

Another important issue is the energy. Yesterday too a new deal was signed between the EU and Turkey to create Nabucco a pipeline to diversify the supply of gas. This way, Europe will reduce its dependence on Russian gas and last winter problems will be easily avoided. Of course, just if the EU finds some gas to fill in the pipelines. Options are Georgian or Iraqi gas (instable countries), Iranian gas (not a friendly country) or other ex-Soviet republics’ gas (again the problem of Russia).

And all this without losing from sight the financial crisis.

Although, maybe, if in October 2 Ireland votes again against Lisbon, maybe, any of it won’t matter anymore.



Photo: European Parliament


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Together or separated?

One of the last ads from Israeli cellphone operator Cellcom shows a few IDF soldiers playing soccer resides the wall in the West Bank. The balls isn’t theirs, but from the other side. Some Palestinian(s) throw it over the wall, the Israelis throw it back and a small game starts among the two sides.

This is the ad:



A Facebook group is already asking to pull out the commercial. They argue it is racist. Sincerely, it can be accused of many things -first of all, for not being careful with sensibilities- but not of racism.

Cellcom’s business is tending -communication- bridges among the people. Both Palestinians and Israelis, because its network covers all the region. If in Hamas’ HQ in Gaza, or in the Knesset in Jerusalem, ones and the others were doing the same, we should be now talking about the shameful wall mirror of the one in Berlin.

There is a clear statement in the commercial:

"After all, what are we all after? Just a little fun."

I wish that were true. We wouldn’t be arguing now if it was.


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Human ammunition

Gilad means monument. Since when three years and one month ago the Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit was kidnapped by Hamas in Gaza, the young man has become also a symbol himself, not only his name meaning. And even in something more: a weapon. For both sides.

Since the 25th of June 2006, at least four times one side or the other has claimed the imminent liberation of Shalit. None of them was made true. In twice of them Hamas blamed Israel, the third one was the opposite. Last one, this Thursday, Israel is to be blamed again, but this time by Mubarak, Egyptian president and the negotiator in the three party talks.

It’s not the first time Israel plays to fool everyone. In fact, the trick of tiring the opponent until they throw the towel is far known in the region. Of course, it’s been played for everyone during the last 60 years. And if the side who bet their lives are the Arabs, Israel is happy. But if there is one Israeli under risk, it changes.

In January, Shalit’s father charged against Olmert government for stopping the offensive in Gaza. More than fifteen hundred casualties, two thirds of them civilians, weren’t enough if his son wasn’t at home by Hanukah.

But what didn’t realize Noam Shalit, the soldier’s father, and neither does Israeli society, is that few people is now really concerned about Shalit. Every moment he spent in Hamas’ hands makes him more valuable, makes more expensive the deal and makes the Palestinian to suffer more -which in the end, makes longer the conflict. There is a good sentence in this Haim Watzman’s article, in the last paragraph, that illustrates perfectly it:

Here is our dilemma, and that of our leaders: As we enter Gilad Shalit’s fourth year of captivity, we must be cool and collected, and bold and courageous. We must be prepared to pay a heavy price to bring Gilad home, but we must not pay too much. I do not know what that price should be. My policy analyst’s head tells me that every price that Hamas has asked has been far too high; my father’s heart tells me that we should have paid it long ago.

Let’s put it on numbers. Olmert’s government accepted a year ago a liberation in exchange of 1,000 prisoners. Then they demanded the list to be reduced to 450 high caliber prisoners. Now, Netanyahu’s government, according to Mubarak, boycotted in the last minute that deal.

Meanwhile, in those three years have been thousands of attacks (in both sides), retaliations (in both sides) and deaths (mostly in one side) that have fueled the cycle again. Many of those operations or attacks, like last Gaza war, were supposedly backed on Shalit’s freedom.

But truth is that one more day, one more month, one more year in captivity; everything goes down to a justification for one operation more, one political decision more or one radical recruitment more. Even Israeli iconography surrounding Shalit reminds to that used by the Palestinian to remember their own prisoners or martyrs.

Hamas stated in January during the offensive in Gaza that Shalit’s health wasn’t anymore a priority for them (understandable after all that was going on over them -literally- then) and that Shalit’s life was as worthless as “a cat”.

They lie. Shalit is their best weapon right now, as it is for Israel.



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Berlusconi's influence... (Updated)

...expands through the G8 members. Tonight, Obama and Sarkozy will sleep in the sofa. Or even worse, in the journalists' barracks. Spartan is the best word to describe them.



Kudos to Sergi.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

In the end, maybe Obama is saved. Not Sarkozy.




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100 and one nights in Tel Aviv

The coalition government in Israel just celebrated its first 100 days. And to celebrate it, Human Rights Watch presented a report about possible war crimes committed in Gaza last winter. It’s not like if Netanyahu’s Government was in charge of the operation, but they surely supported it. And Ehud Barak, one of Netanyahu’s partners, was holding then the Defense portfolio. As he does now.

Yet, in the three months in charge of Bibi, Libi and Barak, few things have changed. For the latter it is understandable. He was already the Minister of Defense in the previous Administration, as he is still now. For him, is like if nothing has changed at all.

Well, just a small detail. Now he is too the unofficial Foreign Minister. Barak is the one in charge -together with Netanyahu- of the relations with the USA. What at first should had been a work for Lieberman, the real Foreign Minister, ended up in the laborist politician because of the radicalism and clumsiness of Libi.

Truth is that Lieberman must be the Foreign Minister with more free time in the area. Even though he is an Israeli. From his campaign promises, only the less important are accomplished or even started. Things such as start the meetings at 7 a.m. or make the Department more efficient. About the rest, nothing.

Nothing from the reception Egyptian president Mubarak was supposed to give Lieberman; he only has seen Cairo in the postcards from other government executives. Jordan still boycotts him and it was the president Shimon Peres who traveled to Amman and Cairo for him. His encounters with his European and Russian counterparts didn’t go better either.

But the worst case was the US-Israel relations. Nothing has he done but inflamme them with his periodical polemic quotes; or even acts. In fact, if we take into consideration the jokes from US senior diplomats, his relation with Hillary Clinton couldn’t be worse:

His meeting with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was described as a disaster. Clinton was reportedly offended by Lieberman's comments during the press conference and when she later accidentally fell and hurt her hand, Washington diplomatic circles joked that "she was pushed down the stairs by Yvet," according to a senior U.S. official, who referred to Lieberman by his nickname.

Up to now, the only visible project from Lieberman’s office has been Iran. In fact, in two weeks, the Foreign Minister will travel through Latin America to try to balance the influence of Ahmadinejad in the region.

To be honest, Iran also can be considered as the only serious project in all the new government. Or at least, the most advanced. Netanyahu and Lieberman have been for months (practically since they took the office) warning over a preventive attack on the nuclear posts in Iran. A match in a gas station that could be a disaster at many levels for the region.

Not something that worries Bibi and Libi. They share the same dream about a wipeouted nuclear Iran. And everyone thinking different can go to hell.

With that objective on mind, the Army has been training with drifts and aerial exercises and war games. The target in all of them was crystal clear -the Persians- and they didn’t even tried to hide it.

Last week a new scenario came across when it was known that an Israeli Dauphine class submarine crossed Suez on its way to the Red Sea from the Mediterranean, where usually are stationed. During the day and on the surface, visible to everyone -especially in Iran- to let the world know that the strategic arsenal of Israel was on route to the Gulf. Another alternative to add to the already known.

With this escalate, the US already warned Netanyahu they don’t want an attack on Iran. But according to Biden they won’t ban it either. This is, they don’t give green light, but neither they do a red light.

So the Iranian government, yesterday, responsabilized directly the US of any attack coming from Israel for not being tough enough with them. But the US are not the only ones, Saudi Arabia reportedly gave a nod to a possible skirmish on Iran. Back to the beginning of the three -now four- possibilities.

We have to count with the petition from Obama to Netanyahu -and not the opposite, as the Israeli media states- to wait until the end of the year to wait for results on the talks. Let’s see if Bibi can wait or if he pushes the US again downstairs.



Photo: Getty Images

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Friendly fire 06/07/09

- The USA and Russia agree cuts for nukes. Missiles, not in the agenda.

- MI6 (British Intelligence service abroad) boss forced to resign after his wife publish photos of his family on Facebook...

- ...and CNI (Spanish Intelligence service) boss resigns after a newspaper aired a scandal out of some photos of him fishing off the African coast. Are these guys spies? Seriously?

- Robert S. McNamara, former Secretary of Defense under JFK and Johnson Administrations, dies at 93. He was one of the brains behind the Vietnam war.

- Italy didn't pass the exams in the G8.




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Dejavú

Nobody talks about it now, but Darfur is a hot spot. Really hot.

After months -we could even say years- of clashes between Chad and Sudan, the Darfur area is full of refugees living in camps. They are under the protection of the UN and they are a -relative- oasis in the middle of a desert of battles. Everyone fights everyone else here. Irregular militias against the governmental forces, between themselves and Chad and Sudan armies to each other.

The main contingent in the area correspond to peacekeepers from the African Union, who yesterday denied again the warrant over Omar Bashir, the Sudanese president and one of the key actors in this mess.

Yesterday too, that contingent got a hard knock out after it was known that their commander in chief, the Nigerian General Martin Luther Agwai, had been “invited” to resign. The reason was lying at home, where apparently his wife was involved in a corruption case.

David Axe asks himself up until which point it is a logical decision to make a good General, who was making a great job, to step down due to a problem of corruption, even when is not directly linked to him and we are talking about Africa:

Does possible corruption (emphasis on “possible”), on the home-front, diminish Agwai’s value as a commander? Consider how corrupt recently-deceased Gabonese president Omar Bongo was — and the many decades of peace and relative prosperity he brought to his country.

Corruption is as African as sunshine. How do you balance the need for a less corrupt future society, with the pressing demands of today’s missions, which beg for today’s corrupt leaders?

Because the AU forces in the area are not in a good position to prescind of one of their best assets. Outnumbered and under equipped, the troops limit themselves to self protection duties and to protect the refugee camps the best they can. But that’s a delicate balance. If things go worse, they won’t be able to maintain the position anymore.

They struggle right now to control a region the size of Texas, when only skirmishes are taking place. If a full scale war starts, a possibility closer every day, the only solution will be a withdraw.

Behind we left a lot of proposals like the creation of a no-fly zone over Sudan, like the one in Iraq after the Gulf war. Or the supports in Chad of several European nations, with troops on the ground from even those you don’t see easily abroad, like Ireland. Behind is too the warrant over Bashir, which won’t be obey by any Muslim or African country.

There are only left the refugee camps, thousands of people fled from their homes, an open war menace more clear every day and a surrounded peacekeeping force unable to even guarantee their own security.

I think I just had a deja-vú. If that rings a bell in anyone, raise your hands.

Here is a clue: Rwanda.



Photo: AP


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Offensive in Afghanistan (Updated)

The worst that could happen to the US Army in Afghanistan is not losing a battle, but losing the trust from the Afghans or, more important, of their own troops. In a battlefield, lose the high moral, and you are screwed.

That’s why the kidnapping of an American soldier, now confirmed by the Talibans, is a hard punch to the American military. He wasn’t kidnapped in the ongoing operation, but that doesn’t matter now. Just the fact that the Talibans were able to make it happen.

It reminds me, kinda, the situation with Gilad Shalit and Israel in Lebanon. Only that this soldier is way farer from home that Shalit.



Photo: John Moore / Getty Images

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Riot season

With the coup in Honduras and the Twitter revolution in Iran, yesterday’s clashes in China were the last guest to the riot season party. And they came in with style -Chinese style. In Honduras, the numbers -non official- show two deaths. In Iran the numbers are around the two dozens. In China, are more than 150 and going up, plus hundreds of injured and detainees.

The origin of it is in an ethnic dispute between the Uighur Muslims, natives to the region, and the Han Chinese immigration. The latter has already overcome the first ones in the capital of the Western province of China, a natural cultural bridge between Central and Eastern Asia. Following the conflicts between the two groups, have inflamed the nationalist aspirations of the region.

This week’s episode was originated in a toy factory in the south of the country. A fired employee -who is now detained- started it by wide spreading a rumor about two Han Chinese women being raped by Uighur men. The rumor quickly got into a snowball and it ended in a fight between around 600 people from both sides, resulting in 2 deaths and 118 injured.

Outraged by it, the Uighur community called for a pacific demonstration that ended up in attacks against Han Chinese people. The clashes with the police were guaranteed. The scenes reminded to the ones lived before the Olympic Games or in Tibet. The final result is the worst ethnic revolts since the end of the Cultural Revolution in 1977.

The Chinese Government, experts on these fields and with Iran experience still fresh, quickly imposed a blackout in all the info on Internet about it. Censorship at home and blame abroad, Ahmadinejad’s style.

To be precise, Chinese government blames Rebiya Kadeer’s World Uighur Congress, an association created by the Uighur exilliated businesswoman in Germany, of being behind the violence in the streets. The Uighur exile, however, denies any implication and blames the Chinese for their repression during the past years.

I don’t know who started it, but anyhow, 156 casualties out of 3000 demonstrators are too many. Not even Ahmadinejad’s Basij militias matched those numbers.



Photo: CCTV


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Failing

It was crystal clear that Zelaya wasn’t going to be able to get in Honduras easily. The plane were he was traveling had to change its destiny and land in El Salvador after that from Tegucigalpa it was denied the right to land.

Well, technically it wasn’t, but they warn them over firing at him if he tried. Like Pilates, Micheletti washed his hands by saying he didn’t want a dead ex-president of the Republic lying on the airport. Ousted yes; death not, that’s not cool. In the end, El Salvador was only another stop in Zelaya’s trip. Last one will be -for now- Washington.

Meanwhile the OAS expelled Honduras from the organization after the coup. Zelaya could count on that. But the promised support from Latin American leaders was more symbolic than real. They indeed traveled to Honduras with Zelaya, but in a different plane. Just in case the military got nervous and shot them down.

And according to what is going on in Honduras streets, they did well. It’s clear when the military is nervous because the casualties start to appear. In Honduras there are already two, one of them a 15 years old boy. To them we have to add several dozens of detainees and injured in the clashes.

But Honduras is not Iran, and here there is no Twitter revolution like with Mousavi supporters or like in Moldova. The streets shout, but the net stays almost quiet.

And it’s not for ammo to throw at the supporters of the coup. The coup has every day more similarities with the usual overthrows in Latin America, including the positioning of the Church in favor of the military. Even Micheletti, the new president, is a former aspirant to the power.

But the cyber-response of the Hondurans is in line with the coup of the military: equally bad. The coup itself is badly backed with arguments. It is not because of a referendum, or because a personal will of Zelaya to overstay in power. It’s much more innocent: just a question over a question.

And even if the reformation of the Constitution would be approved, it wouldn’t have any effect on Zelaya. He will step down as president in 2010 and by then there only can be talks about the talks. Again another proof of how tense and nervous is the military.

Even though the courage is a pre-requisite for their jobs.



Photo: Orlando Sierra / AFP - Getty Images

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