New wars, new weapons, new budget. Part I (USAF)

They are tough times. Times of change. And the American Armed Forces wants to adapt to them. Or even if they don’t want, they will.

Robert M. Gates, Defense Secretary under the late Bush Administration and only survivor to him in the Government, announced this Monday the budget for the military for FY10. And just in case you don’t want to read the speech or listen to the half an hour time of the bloggers’ press conference, here is my analysis.

Before we start, it’s to be said that there is not all sold. Still the text has to go to the Senate, with a long history of resistance to cut-spending in weapons. But for sure it will get the approval from Obama and it’s a declaration of intentions of the new Administration.

And in Gates’ proposal, there are cuts everywhere. But they are uneven, too. The Air Force is the biggest loser, with the Army losing some and the Navy being almost untouched. This concurs with Gates and Obama’s view of the new asymmetrical wars that will face USA.

For more than a year and a half, Gates has been trying to cut spending and projects aimed to the possible threats of big armies (like Russia or China) and reconduct it into counterinsurgency projects, like guerrilla warfare and pirates conflicts. The strategy of cancelled -and ongoing- projects relies heavily on that philosophy.

For the USAF, Gates proposed stop acquiring more C-17 airlifters and F-22 jet fighters (these ones very overpriced) leaving the numbers for them in 205 and 187 respectively. Also decides to prescind of 250 ageing jets (F-16 and F-15) and put on stand by the decision for a new tanker.. However, he encourages the development and acquisition of more F-35.

Shocking for the USAF was as well the cancellation of the new generation bomber -“until the technology is viable”-, leaving in the future the task of ground attack to the wings of F-35 -and for now, to the F-15 and F-16. The Air Force also sees canceled the plans for a new rescue chopper, as well as the problematic Presidential Helicopter, the Marine One.

The anti-missile shield gets a push for the AEGIS system and the SM-3. But the Airborne Laser -or ABL, a futuristic Project aimed to shoot down ICBMs in their initial boost phase with lasers mounted in 747s- is canceled as well. And the Kinetic Energy Interceptor is put on hold for a while.

But probable, the most significative sign comes from the increase of UAVs: the drones. A’stan and Iraq had been a great test ground for this new weapon. Its development has been in fact very similar to the military aviation’s: first were used only for reconnaissance, then for bombing targets on the ground and now are about to explore the war in the air.

Gates’ budget wants to double the number of drones actually in service. This means increase the number of UAVs up to almost 500. At least half of those would be permanently deployed all over the world. It is more, much more than the total number of wings of many Air Forces in the world. In fact, the Predator and Reaper actually on duty will be considered at all effects fighters alongside with the F-16s, F-15s, F-22s and F-35s.

The military development runs also that road. Today, the USAF has a fleet of Predators (200) and Reapers (30). The idea is to substitute both models with a new Predator version, the “C version”. And this improved drone, as points Stephen Trimble, it is juts about to see the light. With stealth characteristics, more action range and improved capacities, including jet engines. The Nave is too developing its own embarked stealth drone, the UCAS-D.

This implies air raids with drones will become more and more frequent. It isn’t gonna be the total elimination for manned jets, but it is a clear bet for the robots. Maybe that’s why in Pakistan, Talibans are so happy. The attacks with drones are destabilizing the country more and faster than any other factor. And more attacks means more recruits for the Talibans. In fact, they are running out of ideas to provoke Obama to send more drones against them.


Photo: AP
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