Bibi, Libi and the Middle Eastern gas station

It’s official. Binyamin Netanyahu (Bibi for friends) has become the new Prime Minister of Israel, the 18th of the country and the 4th doing so twice in a political lifetime. The far-right Avigdor Lieberman (Libi for friends) and his Yisrael Beiteinu together with some ultra-orthodox parties from the settlers will be hand by hand with Bibi in the 32nd Government of Israel in the 60 years of history of the country. Not bad numbers.

To make up a bit the appearance, between so many ultra and far-right guy will be Ehud Barak and the Laborists. Or what is left from them. Their part will be merely testimonial. In the end it is just a marriage of convenience. Barak wanted a chair in the Government (the Defense portfolio). Netanyahu needed an international face wash in order to appear less radical in front of Obama and the EU. This way, everyone is happy.

Let’s face it. It’s not for a lack of ministerial portfolios. 30 in total. There are new Departments everywhere, some others that are newly divided in two or more and even ministers without portfolio. It is in fact a distribution typical of a corrupt country, where is usual to create new Departments every now and then to accommodate the friends who help you to get to (or stay in) the power.

And let’s face it. It’s not for a lack of corruption in Israeli politics. Usually, people see politicians as corrupt or corruptible people. In some countries, like Italy, looks like you have to be corrupt to make politics. In Israel, apparently, too.

The cases of Ariel Sharon (and his relatives), the former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and now, even before starting, Avigdor Lieberman, are a clear example of this. In fact, it looks like there is only one thing more useful than being corrupt to be President of Israel: being a former General from the army (extra points for atrocities like Sabra and Shatila).

By the way, the leader from Yisrael Beiteinu started really strong. The same day he sworn his new post (why wait for more) he made clear why the new Israeli Government will be a pain in the arse for the Obama Administration and his policy for the Middle East. For the new Foreign Minister Annapolis is the past, it doesn’t compromise at all to Israel and buries the possibility of a future Palestinian State.

Lieberman pushes hard, however, for the Road Map, very kind from him. He endorses a reactivation of Palestinian Economy -obviously this doesn’t include lifting the blockade to Gaza- and giving more autonomy to the Palestinian Territories. But a two-state solution sounds like sci-fi for him. The far-right politician will have on his side Ariel Atias, from the ultra-orthodox party Shas, who will be in charge of the Department of Housing. One of his first decisions will be to continue the plans to remodelate the shape of East Jerusalem, continuing the demolition of Arab houses and expanding the settlers’ colonies. In fact, this cuts de facto the West Bank in two.

Their Government leader is not far behind. While the rest of the world would kill for a photo with Obama -the phenomenon is almost as big as that of the rock band groupies-, Netanyahu seems to be waiting Obama to ask for a photo whit him, and not the opposite. We already knew he likes to be polemical.

We also already knew that Israel’s Prime Minister is the only one capable to give orders to the American President -and therefore, to all the US. Maybe because of that, Bibi allows himself to send suggestions and warnings (what the hell, almost direct orders) to Obama: “Stop Iran -or we will”.

Just in January, the Israeli militaries were saying that the security of Israel was not threatened by Iran, “with or without the bomb”. But that was before Netanyahu and his hawkish Government got into the office with the decision, apparently already taken.

Nobody doubts Israel is capable of hitting beyond his borders. It has been tested several times. The latest ones in Sirya and Sudan, the later only two months ago. Their own militaries reckon that a strike on Iran is not a matter of logistics or material, not even getting the authorization from Washington -why do that?-; but the political consequences of such attack.

Abdullah Toucan, from the Centre of International Strategic Studies, has made a report with the different possibilities for Israel. There are two possible ways of attacking: with jets and drones or with missiles. And there are three main targets that will delay or destroy the Iranian nuclear program: a research and enrichment centre in Esfahan, a uranium enrichment factory in Natanz and a heavy water production facility in Arak.

The option of a manned attack with jets isn’t new to the IAF (Israeli Air Force). If it’s made via the Israeli pilots, the task will fall over the F-16 with an escort of F-15, like in Sudan this year or like in Iraq in the 70’s during the Operation Opera. The other option is to rely only on the F-15, like in Syria.

But you only have to look at a map to realize that Sudan, Iraq and Syria are way closer to Israel than Iran. During the mentioned operations, Israeli pilots had to fly at maximum over a third country airspace (none in the case of Syria, a bit of Egypt’s in the case of Sudan and over Saudi Arabia in Iraq’s case).

But getting to Iran is slightly more complicated. Whatever the route you choose, you would have to fly over Iraq or Turkey’s airspace on the north (bad), Saudi or Iraqi airspace on the south (worse) or Syrian and Iraqi airspace in the middle (a f**king hell). Not to mention any on air re-fueling over at least one of those airspaces.

Now the ballistic missile option starts to sound like a more plausible and attractive idea. Trusting on the reliability and accuracy of the Jericho III (capable of carrying a 750kg. Warhead over 4,000km), the report from professor Toucan estimates that it would be needed at least two missiles for targeted location, 15 if the facility is underground.

But none of it eliminates the political consequences of an attack like this in the region. Apart from the evident environmental damage, the academic suggests that it could mean an immediate instability in places such as Afghanistan and Iraq. He also says that it could fireback directly into Israel in the way of more terrorist attacks.

Let’s say that getting with a torch into a gas station while refueling the tanks is not so dangerous.



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