Asymmetrical warfare is the new black in international armed conflicts. Obviously, the seas weren’t going to be indifferent to this fashion.
The problem of the Somali pirates is starting to become too big to be handled by traditional Navies. And its aftermath will be sensitive for the Western countries. Already in an economic downturn, it specially affects the Europeans, that can see the consumer goods’ prices
climbing too much. For Americans and Russians the problem is not so bad: neither their commerce is directly affected nor their ships use those routes.
That’s why only last week we had the first seizure on an American freighter: the odds are against the European and Asian ships just for a matter of numbers; they are many more. For the rest, the
area where pirates operate is key for the maritime commerce lines between Asia and Europe. The Gulf of Aden sees every year more than 20,000 ships going through it. Add to those number the intense fishing business (mostly Europeans, again) and make the maths of people sailing around.
In fact, this latter issue was the one that triggered the piracy in the region. Just 20 years ago, the now sea bandits were just
fishermen. The big European ships, using big trawling nets, decimated the fish on the waters. The local industry couldn’t compete with the big boats of the foreigners. So they organize themselves against them to render a “fine” for fishing around.
What started as a revolutionary fee imposed to foreign fishermen operating in the area turned into something bigger and more organized. Being a pirate today
is highly profitable, compared to the risks. And what’s more ironical, piracy is finally achieving its starting goal. According to the magazine
Warship International Fleet Review, the tuna hauls of foreign fishing companies in the region has been cut in half.
All this could have been avoided with the presence of a strong central government in Somalia. But for years, there hasn’t been anything at all. The fall of the State in 1991 and the forwarding waves of armed conflicts (
USA,
Al Qaeda,
Ethiopia) left a broad zone of the Horn of Africa alone with a huge arsenal at their own. Somalia is not a failed state, because there isn’t even a state. The official Government controls only a few blocks of the capital, Mogadishu. The rest, is just a no man’s land between their neighbors and the sea.
There are no easy solutions to the problem. Noah Sachtman, from Danger Room, proposes some. Some, like sending in the Navy (in fact, they are
already there) and kill the pirates who seize freighters (like in
captain Phillips’ incident), seem to be in line with the vision from a
72% of Americans, who want a tougher approach.
But it doesn’t look easy to
coordinate a dozen navies and twice that number of warships. And in fact, it doesn’t seem to be having much effect on the pirates either. It is true that during the first months of 2009 the Joint Task Force had a relative success. The attacks were cut and all appeared to be a bad nightmare from the past. But it was just a mere illusion. As soon as the spring sun started to shine and good weather come back, pirates started to sail again, stronger than before.
And about the possibility of
killing the pirates, the possible
revenges against other ships make that option very unattractive for the crews. And the non-lethal weapons, only have worked so far
once. Sailors, in general, prefer their shipowners to throw ransoms rather than bullets. And that’s why
stopping the payments won’t work either. There will be always someone who will pay and will destabilize the general strategy.
Other options suggested by Noah include
make convoys or give guns to the crews, but neither of them are welcomed by the shipowners. Convoys worked during WWI, but the delays forming them would result in millionaire losses for the companies. On the other hand, the option of
arming the crews, apart from sounding impossible to some kind of ships (no firearms at all onboard tankers, for example) is hardly against the will of the sailors. They are the first one that doesn’t want any guns onboard.
So, if we don’t send in the military (that also, is not prepared for this kind of warfare) and don’t arm the crews, there is only one option: mercenaries to protect the ships. In this way goes
Ron Paul’s proposal. The former Republican candidate to the presidency suggests giving “
letters of marquee” to modern
privateers.
The professionals like
Blackwater Xe, already are
on the market, since last year. Shipowners, though, are not so happy with the idea. They cannot afford the bills that the USA pays in Afghanistan and Iraq.
The US Navy Admirals are considering another option that lies in between the contractors and the armies. This would be to
pay pirates to attack their brothers. This is, copy the tactic used in Mesopotamia with the “
Sons of Iraq” to apply it in open seas.
But probably, the only good, solid and stable exit to the problem would be to implement a strong Government in Somalia and attack the pirates on shore. Barbery wars were only solved when pirates’ refuge in Algiers
was taken by the French. And the UN has already
authorized raids in Somalia’s soil to prosecute the sea bandits.
The problem is that not many countries are willing to take part in an operation in the Horn of Africa with boots on the ground. Ethiopia did it because it was
in their own good, to avoid an Islamist nightmare in their backyard. Maybe Kenya could be convinced to intervene for the same reason, but they are already with too many problems
at home. For the rest of the countries, that’s unlikely to happen.
The United States are already involved in three asymmetrical wars in Iraq, Pakistan and Afghanistan. Getting into more trouble may be
considered, but after “Black Hawk Down” it is unlikely to see American troops getting alone in a serious operation on Somali soil. Only, maybe, France could get along the US in this adventure. The French have launched nine operations against the pirates, one of them, a helicopter-borne commandos infiltration on shore.
For the rest, nothing is expected. The EU created a task force and was the first one in the area, but lacks of the logistics to get involved in an asymmetrical war in Africa being already engaged in Iraq and with the Talibans in Afghanistan, what is their priority right now. China, India, Japan and other Asian countries have done more than enough. At least, to the light of their public opinions, that is what counts. Russia? Don’t expect the Russians in this game.
However, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates is willing to create
something like a state in Somalia. This position collides with UN decision last December to
pull out of the country and end its mission there. Obama bets too for
tough hand against the pirates. And Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has also elaborated a few proposals in this way.
Clinton comes with the already said ideas of increasing the coordination between the navies, modernize freighters’ passive defensive systems, make some government building and, the most original idea,
freeze the assets of the pirates. A great idea if it wasn’t because it is really hard to bring into a safe port.
First, there is no State in Somalia who controls the banks. There aren’t even banks. And then, there is the issue of the money. Pirates doesn’t use online accounts transfers to get the ransoms. They want
cash, preferably in sport bags handled over by hand or launched into an area in land or the sea from helicopters. And after they got the money, they don’t save it into Swiss accounts like AIG executives.
For now, some as Abu Muqawama see signs in Obama’s policy that show they may be
preparing an intervention soon. But until then, the Horn of Africa will be the
most dangerous place on Earth.
And it's getting worse.
Somalia’s Prime Minister, Omar Abdirashid Ali Sharmake, says that with the money from the ransoms -a
huge amount in the last months- pirates are now able to buy more weapons, more equipment and more contacts.
Until now, they always attacked small preys near the coastline armed with cheap weapons like RPGs and old Kalashnikovs. And more important, they lacked from logistic and information.
But as
David Axe suggests, now, thanks to their GPS devices and a wide net of spies -made up of money- that includes port authorities and custom officers form Port Said to Mombasa and Dubai, pirates know exactly which ships are where, when, what are carrying and if they are able to attack them or not. And the beginning of seizures after the dark increases the worries about the pirates acquiring night vision tech.
That’s why Sharmake
asks for guns to fight them back. But introduce more weapons in a country already riddled with them seems very risky. Last time that happened, thousands of Somali soldiers deserted with their uniforms and their guns. And even if they don’t do so this time, the Somali army has only less than 5,000 really loyal boots.
Of course, in the end, the Somalis will have to become a solid country with a strong state, but as for today, they aren’t still up for the job. And getting more weapons without control won’t help.
Meanwhile, as the
Economist states, the best ally for the freighters in the Indic will be bad weather. The monsoon starts at the end of May and lasts until August. Let’s hope this year will be a bit longer.
Photos: EPA / Veronique de Viguerie / Reuters / Jehad Nga
4/29/2009
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