Reconstructing Gaza

Hillary Clinton’s inauguration as head of the State Department is going to be a biggie. At least for Gulf and Southwest Asia Middle Eastern issues.

During this week, a bunch of representatives from different countries will meet in the turistic town of Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt. Besides the Red Sea, Angela Merkel, Nicolas Sarkozy, Hillary Clinton and many more heads of the diplomacy of other countries will discuss in a donors conference aimed to raise money for the reconstruction of Gaza.

Here is the first big mistake: Hamas, the de facto Government in the Strip, is not invited. The Islamists, however, continue knocking at the door of the Israelis with their Qassams as often as they did before the Jewish offensive. It isn’t clear either the strategy Israel will follow after a Government is formed, as for now they haven’t any (but it’s likely that Tzipi Livni’s Kadima will head the opposition)

Anyway, Ms. Clinton has already warned Israel -and Hamas- that all this money won’t be of any help without major improvements in the peace process. And to make that true, the new American Administration considers a key issue two steps from Israel.

First -and the most important- is the end of Gaza’s blockade, something Israel isn’t willing to accept until the soldier Gilad Shalit, in the hands of Hamas since 2006, is freed by its captors. Second big mistake, this time from Hamas’ side, as with the liberation of this soldier, everything seems that could be easier. Israel has submitted the liberation of Shalit to a ceasefire, the end of the blockade and the exchange of prisoners. What else wants Hamas (for now)?

The second step is the end to the construction of new colonies in the West Bank Israel has promised it several times. However, according to the more than 70,000 new houses planned for new settlements, it doesn’t seem likely to happen. And that’s the third big mistake.

Against all those odds -and even though that technically, still there isn’t any oficial ceasefire in Gaza-, the Palestinian National Authority hopes to raise more than €2.1b (more than $2.7b), of which more than a third comes from the Gulf Arab countries.

This money will be distributed in the West Bank by the NPA -in the hands of Fatah- and in Gaza by the UN agencies and NGOs on the ground (isolating Hamas) It’s, however, not sure if the Islamist won’t be able to take over all this aid, as it happened in the past.

Therefore, it is uncertain as well if the UN and the NGOs will be able to distribute the money effectively. This is, we could face the same problem as in Iraq or Afghanistan, where money was widely wasted. Also, if a ceasefire is not guaranteed, not only we could be facing a waste of money, but also it won’t be possible to distribute it at all.

Photo: buildings affected by the Israeli offensive in Gaza, via BBC.