Bashir and The Hague

The International Criminal Court has emitted a warrant to arrest Mr. Omar al-Bashir. The President of Sudan is reclaimed by The Hague in a decision with no precedents. Not because is a head of a state -Charles Taylor, ex-president of Sierra Leona, or the Serbian Slobodan Milosevic had been previously prosecuted-, but because he is the first one in being prosecuted while still on active duty.

More specifically, the ICC charges Bashir with war crimes (“intentioned attacks against civilians and pillaging”) and crimes against the humanity (“murder, extermination, forcible transfer, torture and rape”) made in Darfur by Arab paramilitaries, the janjaweed. At the end, the charges for genocide have been withdrawn, but the ICC admits that they could be taken in consideration again if enough evidence is found.

However, the efficiency of this warrant is not clear. The detentions in the past of Taylor and Milosevic show that it is almost impossible to catch the man without the collaboration of the country involved. Aegis Trust agrees with it. And for now, the African country has said that the Court can eat the warrant. Word.

In the case of Bashir, neither out of Sudan looks like the ICC is going to find enough partners. Although the 180 countries signatories of the Court Constitution are forced to collaborate with it, many are showing their disapproval. In the Security Council, Russia and China -the latter with important business in the area- want to hold on the case. And the African Union, the Arab League and the Islamic Conference have already stated that they won’t obey the order.

There is also the risk of Darfur’s conflict to intensify and a big threat to the fragile peace process going on. Up to now, the UNAMID has been attacked by the militias operating in the area. From now on, it could be attacked too by the Sudanese army. If Bashir will expel the Blue Berets or not, time will say. But for now, he has expelled a dozen of Western NGOs, including Medecins Sans Frontiers, Oxfam and Save the Children.

However, the new American foreign policy may be an important back to the case. Even the USA is not part of the ICC -George Bush pulled out his country in 2002 to avoid prosecution of American soldiers involved in legal problems in Afghanistan and Iraq-, it is still the biggest economic contributor and has helped a lot with the ongoing investigation of the ICC in Lebanese Hariri’s murder. And the focus of the new Administration could go further than just re-signing the Constitution of the ICC.

In fact, recently Secretary of State Hillary Clinton proposed to create a no-fly zone in Sudan to deliver humanitarian aid, similar to the one created in 1991 in Iraq and she has warned of a more aggressive policy in the area -whatever that means. Truth is that America’s policy in the area has turned indeed tougher. And to all that, we should add the rumors of a possible cup d’Etat in Sudan.

Whatever it will be, for now, the only ones losing the bet are the thousands of refugees because of the war.

Extra: Two good A&Q from the BBC and The Guardian about Darfur and the warrant on Bashir.

Extra 2: Related with another Bashir, this time a short movie about the blocking of Gaza Strip, from the producer of the Israeli film Waltz with Bashir. The director, in the case of Gaza, declined to make any comments.



Photo: Sudanese Arab militant,janjaweed. BBC
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