The real Korean threat

OMG! OMG, Koreans are about to launch (maybe) an ICBM (Intercontinental Ballistic Missile)! But, is it really so worrying?

Just before the G20 summit, the NATO summit and the first face-to-face between Obama and Medvedev and European leaders, Kim Jong-Il just did the unthinkable: stealing the protagonism to the American president.

Some will say that what the North Korean president wants is just that, more relevance. A long illness drove him outside the media for several weeks, awakening all kind of rumors. Together with the successful launch of an Iranian communications satellite in February, that should have turned green of envy the red commie.

First, facts. PRDK plans to launch sometime between the 4th and the 8th of April what Pyongyang says is a communications satellite. Second, reactions: USA, Japan and South Korea don’t believe that and think it is instead a ballistic missile test. China and Russia... well, they don’t really mind much about it.

The usual high-testosterone talk of these situations is already on the air. The US has said from Ms. Clinton lips that a launch from the Koreans would be seen in Washington as a “provocation”. The Americans have talked - a lot- about shooting down the rocket. The have even deployed in the region two warships capable of intercepting incoming ICBMs, including the USS McCain, that was already in the area practicing joint operations with the South Koreans.

Japan also has activated his defense lines with two more warships capable of tracking and shooting down missiles. Both the Japanese and American vessels have onboard the AEGIS system and SM-3 missiles (Standard Missile-3). This system received a PR boost last year when it shot down an orbiting satellite. The AEGIS system has been successful in seven of the nine tests up to date, some of the in joint operations with the Japanese ships. Not like his terrestrial counterpart, the Ground Based Midcourse Defense.

North Korea has responded to this threats by saying that any attempt to shoot down the launch will be considered as an “act of war”. They also have warned the UN against any resolution aimed to ban the launching, saying they will start again with their plutonium enrichment program is that happens.

Meanwhile, Japan and the US insist they will only intercept the rocket is it posses a direct threat to themselves. In the case of Japan, it is expected that the first and second stages of the propeller will fall over the west and east sides of the island respectively, in the sea. Japan says they will only shot down any debris about to fall over Japan mainland.

Americans, on the other hand, are worried that if it is an ICBM test, it could be aimed in the future to Alaska or California. But, would it be possible of such? How dangerous are North Koreans?

David Wright, from the pro-disarmament NGO Union of Concerned Scientists, considers that starting from the basis that the deployment unit will be a Taepodong-2 missile (Scud derivate), the North Koreans could be able to launch “a 1,000 kilograms warhead over 12,000 kilometers over the pole”. Geoffrey Forden, from MIT, has arrived to a very close conclusion.

So, with those data on our hands, we can assure that North Korea is pretty much a threat. And one more serious than the Iranians. That distance is enough to reach Japan (of course) and the western states of the US. And the Koreans have nukes, while the mullahs don’t (yet). So it is a bit worrying.

Or maybe not?

We have to say that, up to date, all Taepodong-2 tests have result in failures. Last one, in 2006, ended up with the missile landing not nicely in the sea 45 seconds after launching.

And even if it goes well and it is indeed an attack against the US, the USAF and the Navy would have still plenty of time to neutralize the threat. The initial trajectories of an ICBM and an orbital launch are different both in angle, speed and momentum. In less than three minutes, the warships in the region could identify and track what kina of launching is and, if necessary, shot it down or warn the batteries deployed in Alaska, Hawaii and California.

Not to mention that the launch won’t be all a surprise. First stage of the Taepodong-2 needs liquid fuel that is needed to load with several hours in advance. We are talking of days. Up to now, the fueling of the tanks haven’t even started, although the rocket is already on its launching site. With that early warning, Dennis Gates acknowledges that the Americans can downgrade any threat from North Korea quite easily.

Maybe because of that, Gates said yesterday that the US won’t shoot down the rocket. Main message to the world: take it easy, dudes.


Photo: Jane's Intelligence Review/DigitalGlobe
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