Friendly fire 31/03/09

- Uncovered a Chinese cyber-espionage net. For now, it is impossible to determine if the Chinese government is behind it but between the sites affected by the spies are a few foreign embassies and NGOs.

- France announces the construction of a Pentagon a la francaise.

- Russia gets tough with the fight for the North Pole and creates an Artic Task Force.

- Dumb and dumber in the Occupied Territories in a race to guess who is worse: a young Palestinian orchestra is disbanded by the AP after playing for Holocaust survivors.

- Israel attacks in Sudan a convoy with weapons, supposedly, for Hamas. Meanwhile, al Bashir gets a 5 star holiday in Doha, defying the warrant from the ICC with the support from the Arabs.



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The real Korean threat (Updated)

Photos from the launching site, via DigitalGlobe.

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AfPak becomes PakAf

Unlike for the Bush-Rumsfeld administration, war in Afghanistan has been a key aspect of Obama’s policy even before he arrived in the White House. For Obama, a pacified Central Asia is fundamental for the new pax romana order. However, that won’t be as easy as many though.

But Obama’s new focus says a lot about how changed is everything. Ok, they are still using the same wild cards as Bush did: more boots on the ground, more money in the Afghan pockets. Obama has added 4,000 soldiers to the promised 17,000 that he announced in February to be shortly deployed. A total of 21,000 more American reinforcements who will join 2,000 British and possibly between 500 and 1,000 Spanish reinforcements by the summer. Other NATO countries have already said that they will increase as well their contribution to the Afghan mission.

Also a few hundred civilian experts in reconstruction will join them. But all this, although is in the right path, may be inefficient -at least at short term- in a country like Afghanistan. Maybe the strategy worked in Iraq, where there is a 74% of literacy between the population, tribal leaders willing to cooperate, has good infrastructures and the average rent is $4,000 per year. But in Afghanistan, the numbers are much worse: two thirds are illiterate, the NATO lacks of strong local allies, there isn’t an only railroad in all the country (and only a decent airport in Kabul) and the average income per year is around $800.

Another change is that bin Laden disappears from the equation. Well, not completely. Officially speaking, war in Afghanistan is against al Qaeda, but there is little left in Central Asia -or any other part of the world- of the original organization that terrorized America on the 9/11.

In fact, is not anymore necessary that organization. The hate crop is germinated. What there is now all over the world are series of local wars aimed to a global goal, quite distant on space and time. It is mostly a conflict between neighbors, carried on locally. Maybe because of that, Obama has already proposed to talk to the Talibans and other local warlords. Sooner or later, they will have to do it.

In fact, the strategy against al Qaeda has changed as well. The army doesn’t talk anymore of smack down the Taliban, but of “disrupt” and “defeat” them.

According to Dennis McDonough, from the National Security Council, important thing is to assure that the terrorist cells are unable to operate in Europe and America. The cells would remain intact, but impotent. That would be the “disruption”. And the “defeat” would mean not only a hard hand against them, but also an ideological defeat. Basically, show the population in Afghanistan and Pakistan that it is not worth to get in business with the Talibans because they are the bad guys.

But the main problem is not al Qaeda, bin Laden or the Talibans. It is Pakistan. US ally suffers from internal -almost- chaos. Terrorist attacks are weekly and they don’t respect anything, from mosques to sport teams. With a military not really devoted to the cause, a radicalized population and a political class corrupt and unable to make its work -as in the north-, Pakistan is about to become a failed state.

Obama’s administration saw that and has elaborated a new joint strategy for both countries since the beginning. Richard Hoolbroke, let’s say, was appointed as special envoy to Afghanistan and Pakistan. And in the last speech from Obama about the war against the Talibans, the president talked about operations in “Pakistan and Afghanistan”.

In fact it also significative the change in the order of the words. Up to now it was an “AfPak” issue. Now it is a “PakAf” issue. In the same line, the president launched his strategy aimed to Afghanistan and Pakistan. Not a strategy for Afghanistan with occasional attacks in Pakistan. Nope. Afghanistan and Pakistan.

But Americans are not so willing to go on the ground in Pakistan with troops. Right now there are a hundred of American soldiers in Pakistan in training missions. The attacks on Pakistani soil have been developed always by drones -and that has contributed a lot to destabilize the country. Continuing with the drone experience can be dangerous, and an overthrown from an Islamic radical population of a country with nukes is the last America would like.

But maybe the key is in a third country, neither Afghanistan nor Pakistan: India. Islamabad doesn’t see a threat to his own security in the Talibans, but it does in his south-eastern neighbors. In fact, fueling the radical Muslims -brothers of the Talibans- in the Cachemire region has been Pakistan’s strategy since the beginning. The Talibans have grown inside Pakistan feeded by the army and the secret service in his war against India

Secure a peace between India and Pakistan could mean a significative true involvement of Pakistan’s military in the war against the Talibans. Or at least, the elimination of a safe heaven for the Islamist at the other side of the border. But for now, Islamabad sees on bin Laden Pals their only ally in their fight against the Indians, their truly war.

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The real Korean threat

OMG! OMG, Koreans are about to launch (maybe) an ICBM (Intercontinental Ballistic Missile)! But, is it really so worrying?

Just before the G20 summit, the NATO summit and the first face-to-face between Obama and Medvedev and European leaders, Kim Jong-Il just did the unthinkable: stealing the protagonism to the American president.

Some will say that what the North Korean president wants is just that, more relevance. A long illness drove him outside the media for several weeks, awakening all kind of rumors. Together with the successful launch of an Iranian communications satellite in February, that should have turned green of envy the red commie.

First, facts. PRDK plans to launch sometime between the 4th and the 8th of April what Pyongyang says is a communications satellite. Second, reactions: USA, Japan and South Korea don’t believe that and think it is instead a ballistic missile test. China and Russia... well, they don’t really mind much about it.

The usual high-testosterone talk of these situations is already on the air. The US has said from Ms. Clinton lips that a launch from the Koreans would be seen in Washington as a “provocation”. The Americans have talked - a lot- about shooting down the rocket. The have even deployed in the region two warships capable of intercepting incoming ICBMs, including the USS McCain, that was already in the area practicing joint operations with the South Koreans.

Japan also has activated his defense lines with two more warships capable of tracking and shooting down missiles. Both the Japanese and American vessels have onboard the AEGIS system and SM-3 missiles (Standard Missile-3). This system received a PR boost last year when it shot down an orbiting satellite. The AEGIS system has been successful in seven of the nine tests up to date, some of the in joint operations with the Japanese ships. Not like his terrestrial counterpart, the Ground Based Midcourse Defense.

North Korea has responded to this threats by saying that any attempt to shoot down the launch will be considered as an “act of war”. They also have warned the UN against any resolution aimed to ban the launching, saying they will start again with their plutonium enrichment program is that happens.

Meanwhile, Japan and the US insist they will only intercept the rocket is it posses a direct threat to themselves. In the case of Japan, it is expected that the first and second stages of the propeller will fall over the west and east sides of the island respectively, in the sea. Japan says they will only shot down any debris about to fall over Japan mainland.

Americans, on the other hand, are worried that if it is an ICBM test, it could be aimed in the future to Alaska or California. But, would it be possible of such? How dangerous are North Koreans?

David Wright, from the pro-disarmament NGO Union of Concerned Scientists, considers that starting from the basis that the deployment unit will be a Taepodong-2 missile (Scud derivate), the North Koreans could be able to launch “a 1,000 kilograms warhead over 12,000 kilometers over the pole”. Geoffrey Forden, from MIT, has arrived to a very close conclusion.

So, with those data on our hands, we can assure that North Korea is pretty much a threat. And one more serious than the Iranians. That distance is enough to reach Japan (of course) and the western states of the US. And the Koreans have nukes, while the mullahs don’t (yet). So it is a bit worrying.

Or maybe not?

We have to say that, up to date, all Taepodong-2 tests have result in failures. Last one, in 2006, ended up with the missile landing not nicely in the sea 45 seconds after launching.

And even if it goes well and it is indeed an attack against the US, the USAF and the Navy would have still plenty of time to neutralize the threat. The initial trajectories of an ICBM and an orbital launch are different both in angle, speed and momentum. In less than three minutes, the warships in the region could identify and track what kina of launching is and, if necessary, shot it down or warn the batteries deployed in Alaska, Hawaii and California.

Not to mention that the launch won’t be all a surprise. First stage of the Taepodong-2 needs liquid fuel that is needed to load with several hours in advance. We are talking of days. Up to now, the fueling of the tanks haven’t even started, although the rocket is already on its launching site. With that early warning, Dennis Gates acknowledges that the Americans can downgrade any threat from North Korea quite easily.

Maybe because of that, Gates said yesterday that the US won’t shoot down the rocket. Main message to the world: take it easy, dudes.


Photo: Jane's Intelligence Review/DigitalGlobe
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The most moral army in the world

Sometimes you just have to shut up. At least on public and with the cameras pointing at you. Not Gabi Askhenazi, chief of the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF). In an event with new recruits, Askhenazi said:

"I can say that the IDF is the most moral army in the world".

Really? Well, without digging too much in the dirt, it is quite easy to find just in the last two weeks examples of the opposite.

Like last weekend, when Haaretz newspaper uncovered the story about supposed irregularities in the rules of engagement, lax moral and arbitrariety -even cruelty- in the behavior of the troops involved in Cast Lead operation in Gaza. From the lips of the own soldiers.

One of the squad commanders of that so moral army, being asked why an old woman was shot dead by a sniper even she was unarmed, a civilian and didn’t represent a threat, answered this:

“What’s great about Gaza — you see a person on a path, he doesn’t have to be armed, you can simply shoot him”.

Those snipers have been as well this week in the media for another worrying issue. Apparently, a unit of the IDF has been purchasing T-shirts with claims, at best, offensive. In one of them we can appreciate an Arab pregnant woman inside a rifle scoop over the sentence “One shot, two kills”. IDF fashion items for this summer.

Apparently this doesn’t worry the IDF a lot. But hey, when it comes to a Chinese awards whose logo reminds kinda vaguely to that of the Hitler’s SS, then, Israel’s embassy in Beijing starts to claim for revenge under the anti-Semitism shield. Even though they recognize that anti-Semitism in China is something quite unlikely.

Back to the IDF actions, to the protests from various international groups, the UN and the report from Amnesty International regarding the use of White Phosphorus (WP) by Israel in the Operation Cast Lead, now we have to add another one from Human Rights Watch that confirms that matter. According to the New York-based lobby, Israel (and Hamas in a lesser way) used white phosphorus at least once illegally in Gaza.

White phosphorus is a permitted weapon used under determinate circumstances. Those include the use of it to make smoke columns as way of screening movements or aiming to deactivate booby traps and mines; but never used as an incendiary weapon against people or buildings, never against civilians and never in populated areas..

Marc Garlasco, the senior analyst who has made the report for Human Rights Watch, describes that Israelis used this weapon in three different ways. First, the shot it in open rural areas, maybe to deactivate mines and hidden explosives. Then, in cities’ outskirts, probably to screen their movements and hide themselves to Hamas. Anything illegal there.

Trouble comes with the third use, with air-burst WP sprout in crowded urban areas. Everytime soldiers though they had seen a Hamas’ compound, they sent in a rain of white phosphorus. That’s how a school, a hospital and an UN building were hit. For Mr. Garlasco, this was a tactic destinated to burn down the buildings.

The problem came with the civilians in between. Reports from doctors on the ground, like the head of Sifa Hospital’s burnt unit, Dr. Nafez Abu Shaban, confirm this.

But what it was even more problematic, according to Mr. Garlasco -former chief of High Value Targeting on the Joint Chiefs of Staff- is that he doesn’t find any explanation to why Israel used the WP this way. Air-burst WP minimizes the effect of the smoke while maximizes the incendiary effects. And the buildings attacked where too big for the WP to be able to deactivate hidden explosives or mines inside..

Garlasco adds:

“It still boggles my mind, what the military utility was”.

Of course, many of the brutalities in Gaza went directly from the commanders. And not only from those on the ground. Radicalization in Israeli society is a fact -shown in the latest elections-, the same way Gaza war has radicalized the Palestinians.

As the Palestinians have thrown themselves on the Islamists’ arms, the IDF has thrown itself on rabbis’ arms. In fact, many religious men called for a holy war in Gaza during Cast Lead operation.

Whit somehow less drama, also this week, soldiers from the IDF also targeted another dangerous threat: kids with balloons. The Israeli police banned the celebrations around the Arab Day 2009, hosted this year in Jerusalem -which was a de facto boycott to the event itself. When some kids where celebrating it in a schoolyard, letting free red, white, green and black (for the Palestinian flag) balloons into the air, soldiers form the IDF run into the school and “shot down” the rest of the balloons.

And that’s just from the last week. Not taking into consideration these other news appeared on the media in the last month:

- Israeli Army Now Less Careful About Civilian Deaths?
- Witnesses say white flags didn't keep Israeli troops from firing at and killing Palestinians.
- Final Gaza toll shows 960 civilians killed.
- Gazans say Israeli troops forced them into battle zones.
- Israeli troops killed Gaza children carrying white flag, witnesses say.

What does the IDF do meanwhile? Uhm... Oh, yes; it is busy celebrating the election of one of his corporals as Miss Israel 2009 and preparing the trip to Bahamas. Oh, and living morality lessons!




PS. This time it's worthy, even more than usually, to click on the links.


Photos: AP, Getty Images, IDF.

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Friendly fire 26/03/09

- The Top 10 conspiracy theories of all time.

- Biker brutal deadly brawl in Sydney's airport.

- Two American journalists detained in North Korea.

- Watch out! Let's don't put ETA's cons in jails near to the Basque Country. That could drive us into another peace process. And we don't want that, do we? El Mundo dixit.

- Last defense line in Iraqi soccer are bullets.


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Shame on Spain

Shame. That is what Spaniards will be facing in the next G20 summit. The withdraw from Kosovo is a betrayal to many of Spain allies. And a worst thing is that this is not the first time Mr. Zapatero does it.

But frankly, I don’t know what is worse, if the shame abroad or the shame inside your own country. The mistakes made by Ms. Chacon (Spain’s MoD) and Mr. Zapatero are many and big. The main one, not asking first NATO about it or their intentions. But it wasn’t consulted internally either! Mr. Moratinos (Spain’s Foreign Minister) didn’t know anything about the withdraw and many Spanish ambassadors (including the one to the US) had to know about the withdraw from the newspapers.

Maybe Mr. Zapatero doesn’t think that Spain’s image abroad has been damaged, but truth is that it has; much and for many years. All NATO allies have criticized Spain’s decision. Heavily. Also inside Spain, it has become an important issue that has carried over for the first time since Mr. Zapatero was elected a general opposition to his Government. Not only in the Parliament, also on the streets. And it is not a matter of what but how.

To all that, add the paranoia around Kosovo reigning in Spain. Mr. Zapatero’s Government is one of the 5 countries of the EU that still hasn’t recognized Kosovo as a country. It is all because of a fear of that agitating Spain’s own internal nationalism’s demands. Quite silly argument, if I have to say. But to the point, Spain doesn’t recognize Kosovo but thinks that it is ready to get on its own as a country. Anyone explains this to me?

In yesterday’s control session in the Parliament, Mr. Zapatero and Ms. Chacon received a rain of criticism from all the parties. Only under Aznar’s Government, during the Iraq war, happened something similar.

Also there is the issue of the soldiers going out from a relatively pacified country but not home. They are more likely to go to Afghanistan. Spain’s law doesn’t allow more than 3,000 soldiers deployed overseas at any time, and its quite clear that those 600 soldiers will now be deployed in Afghanistan as Obama’s Administration has requested since January. Maybe with that extra effort the Spaniards will start to get out of their safe base in Afghanistan and patrol their assignated area as any other ally does combating the Taliban.

Going back to the internal show in Spain, if there wasn’t shameless enough with just the withdraw, the after-time circus is becoming even more embarrassing for the Spaniards. First; there is no time to communicate the withdraw to NATO allies, but plenty of time to made a video statement for the news channels. Second; the criticism against the MoD is not justified and it is all a macho attack against a female Minister.

But it is even worse see Spanish Government more worried about disappointing Obama than of disappointing itself and their country abroad.


Cartoon by Manel Fontdevila

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Dear Iran: Happy holidays. Love, Satan

It looks like Obama is taking seriously a new approach with Iran (and Russia). After knowing the mailing between Ahmadineyad and the new kid in the block, now the President broads its message to all Iranians.

With the Nowruz holidays as background, Obama recorded a video message with subtitles in Farsi. On it, he wishes a happy new Iranian year, wishes the best for Iran... And let’s know the Iranians that it would be better if they don’t go on after nukes. Damn it... Now that they were almost this close to something close to a nuke... Maybe.

From the transcription of the video:

The United States wants the Islamic Republic of Iran to take its rightful place in the community of nations. You have that right -- but it comes with real responsibilities, and that place cannot be reached through terror or arms, but rather through peaceful actions that demonstrate the true greatness of the Iranian people and civilization. And the measure of that greatness is not the capacity to destroy, it is your demonstrated ability to build and create.

If anyone knows Farsi, here is the original transcription of the subtitles. Let’s hope that at least, Washington’s Farsi linguists are at least better than their counterparts of Russian. Because these ones suck. Hillary Clinton wanted to handle over to his counterpart Lavrov a button with the Word Reset as a symbol of a new era in the Russian-American relations. But the Department of State translated the inscription as peregruzka (overcharge) instead of perezagruzka (reset).


Photo: White House
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Out of the way! Incoming! (II)

Another sub that hits in the middle of the ocean. A few months ago it was France and the UK. Now it is the turn for tow American ships: the sub USS Hartford and the amphibious vessel USS New Orleans. Both are part of US Navy V Fleet.

In a brief note, the Navy explains that the incident happened because of still unknown reasons around 1 a.m. (local time) near the Strait of Hormuz. This is, near Iran. At least 15 crew members of the sub were injured but all of them are already back on duty. The ship crew didn’t suffer any losses, but 25,000 gallons of diesel fuel went into the sea.

This is not the first incident where the USS Hartford is involved. In 2003, in an almost comic story, the disorientated crew of the submarine drove it aground in front of Sardinia’s coast. The damages put the vessel on the drydock for several months and it cost more than $9m in repairs. Two officials were dismissed.

As well yesterday, an F-22 Raptor crashed early in the morning in California. The incident took place in the desert, around 10 miles northeast from Edwards Air Base (the same used by the space shuttle for landing). The pilot didn’t manage to eject and died shortly after the crash. The USAF quickly moved into the area and restricted the access to anyone because, as they said in a note, there could be “hazardous” material around

There are investigations going on around both incidents.


Photo: USAF

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61 years later: "Kick anything over the grass". Again.

Finally, after 61 years, Ireland won last weekend a Grand Slam. Last one was in 1948. This time was the last chance for the Golden Generation to reach glory and they took the opportunity on their hands.

In an exciting game, Ireland survived a late scare as Steven Jones’ long range penalty fell just short, giving Ireland a 17-15 win, the Triple Crown, the Six Nations Championship and that coveted Grand Slam.

It wasn’t so clear during the game. The first half was a disaster for Ireland. However, half time is when coaches earn their corn and Declan Kidney’s team talk is destined to go down in folklore. It is at least at the same level as that Jack Kyle’s “Kick anything over the grass” from 1948. When Ireland came back out, they were a changed team. The first 6 minutes of the second half will live in the memory for a long time.

In just no time at all, Ireland put the score on a 6-14 lead. O’Gara was decisive in this. But Wales woke up and gave it away with a turnover for a 15-14 score. Irish dream was fading when a mistake from Jones got them into the game again.

With the ball again in Irish hands, O’Gara converted the final drop to put ahead his team 17-15 with four minutes to go. But the game wasn’t over. Jones had a final chance to break Irish hearts. With time up on the clock, Jones stepped up, the kick was on target, but just fell short.

With the triumph over Wales, Ireland got it all: the 6 Nations tournament, the Grand Slam (winning over all the opponents) and the Triple Crown (winning over the three UK teams, Wales, Scotland and England).

Congratulations Ireland.

PS. Not so sweet was the tournament for France and Italy. Maybe because of that, Chabal and Castrogiovanni went into a fight in a pub in the “third time”.



Photo: PA

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Party is over

If it wasn’t bad enough just with the economic troubles, Britons (and Irish) will have it tougher to get over it. Partying in the UK is becoming a luxury not affordable for everyone.

Let’s make an example. So, let’s say it is your birthday and you want to celebrate it with your friends. First step would be to call them. But calling is very expensive, is better texting. And with just one text that you can resend to everyone, it makes everything easier. So, you text them. Well, if the proposition from the Irish Green Party goes on, it will cost you 1c extra per text in taxes. Not much, but we just got started.

With everyone gathering to the party is time to take care of the supplies: alcohol and tobacco. For the second one, Ireland taxes it already at the highest rate in Europe. A packet can cost in excess of €7 when in other countries is less than half of that. But the new taxes being studied by Cowen’s government could boost that price in a 25 per cent more up to €10. Luckily I’m not a smoker. And luckily for smokers, they only can smoke in the outside. So temptation is not always around.

It’s time now to get wasted with alcohol. But hey, something is wrong here. Booze can boost to a 50p per alcoholic unit if Sir Liam Donaldson’s proposal is taken in consideration. That means getting a can of beer for not less than £1.1 (€1.25). In a supermarket, not even in a pub. And don’t even let me get started with the spirits...

Official position from the governments aims to reduce deaths by alcohol with that measure. It doesn’t escape that they also will get a huge amount of money in taxes. Not to mention that deaths by alcohol have already levelling off because of the financial crisis (it had to have something good) and the consequent descend in the sales are putting on risk more than 9,000 jobs only in Ireland.

Take that, add the actual prize for a movie ticket (€10), the previous ban on prostitution and a hypothetical overtax on chocolate, and the party is definitely over everywhere.

I think I’m gonna stay at home for my birthday.


Photo: The Simpsons.

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Friendly Fire 21/03/09

As I’ve been out for a while, here is a double portion of Friendly fire.

- Another March Madness for the Americans: Sarah Palin’s daughter, in the end, won’t marry the redneck.

- Drone wars: if they are up to the challenge in Afghanistan, they are up to the challenge for Global Warming. Northrop Grumman dixit.

- Russia wants to rearm itself. Heavily. USA wants more updated nuclear bombs. So, cold war is not already over? Apparently, not.

- Madagascar’s descend into chaos.

- If you are on a tour in Iraq, better get cover: back at home, war wounded are not under Social Security insurance. Socialist Obama dixit.

- Financial crisis arrives to the media. First was Colorado’s oldest newspaper, the Rocky Mountain. Now it is the turn for the Seattle Post-Intelligence.

- No more back to the future in Iran: Khatami pulls out of presidential election.

- Ospreys ready for action in Afghanistan.

- Amstettem monster pleads guilty.

- Ireland, on the road to make History in the 6 Nations.

- Not even in OZ they got out from the breakdown.


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Logistic problems

The American withdraw from Iraq is linked to an increase of the boots in Afghanistan. It was the natural and expected movement. But Americans aren’t as eager as their President to make that move. First is the not minor issue of leaving a few dozens of thousand soldiers in Mesopotamia. Second, they don’t want to continue in Afghanistan either.

Just the withdraw from Iraq is already a pain in the arse. Indeed. It is not easy to take out of the country 90,000 soldiers, 40,000 airplanes, helicopters and other heavy weaponry, 80,000 containers (not to mention 100,000 contractors) spread in 280 sites nationwide, in less than a year and in a more or less orderly manner. Oh, and then is the question of from and through where.

But there are some other problems that are mostly because of the unique American way of invading a country, those that force them to bring with them everything they can imagine:

One Army office at [one base,] Anaconda[,] is tracking 1.2 million items of property worth $14 billion, a partial list of materiel that includes objects such as dentist's chairs, chapel pews, swimming pool filtration systems and surveillance blimps. Separately, the Army and Air Force Exchange Service, which operates military supermarkets and shops across Iraq, holds an inventory that includes 2.7 million candy bars, 15,000 strips of beef jerky, 1.6 million cans of soda and 330,696 CDs and DVDs.

So many candy bars? And soda cans? So many CDs and DVDs? Really, was it necessary?

And that’s only half of the story. If getting out from Iraq will be complicated, getting in Afghanistan won’t be easier. The closure of Manas air base, in Kyrgyzstan, makes everything even more difficult.

Russia dennies being behind the issue, leaving it on the hands of Kirgyz Parliament. But the fact of being supplying in governmental aid the Money the Kyrgyz aren’t taking from the Americans (and a bit more) makes it a bit darker.

Manas is not only an air base for supplying and refueling. It is much more than that. And the US loses more than a base by losing Manas.

On the north, Manas was the best alternative, and even the negotiations have started to reopen it to the Americans, it is unclear what will it be. On the south, there is Pakistan. The Khyber pass, crossing point for two thirds of NATO supplies for the war against the Talibans, has been for long under attack. It is very dangerous and even the whole country is turning inestable and anti-American because of the continuing drone war over Pakistani soil. On the East, the Chinese obviously are not going to let the US use their air space or their soil to supply the troops.

Obama is against the strings. So he have had to call for help to Americans baddest enemies. A train full of non weaponry supplies is already crossing Russia on its way to Afghanistan from Lithuania. The possibility of a new route across Iran is over the table as well.

But all that is only a temporal solution. Meanwhile, the US is looking for an alternative point to set up a base in the Caucasus. Turquey is a traditional ally. But Georgia is a more strategic approach to the problem. And it would have the added pleasure of giving back the punch to the Russians. You get us out from Kyrgyzstan; fair enough. But we set up a military permanent base in your backyard playground. Isn’t it appealing?


Photo via The Big Picture.

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Sex and sensibility

Vatican may be infallible while talking about God. But when it comes to human issues it sucks. In fact, it’s understandable. It is like me talking about Bengali vegetarian recipes. Just in case anyone is wondering why I say that: I’m not Asiatic, I like to cook simple and I’m mostly carnivore.

Well, with the Vatican is similar. The ones that dictate how to behave to millions of people all over the world have been quite for a long time living far away from those people’s world. So they have lost contact with the real world. They are stuck, at best, 200 years ago. Also, at the light of History, Church has the weird ability to positioning itself once and once and again in the wrong side. And they never learn. And they still fall with the same mistakes. And they still are a big obstacle for scientific progress.

Get me right. There is no problem on the Church giving doctrines to their adepts about how to live, behave or die. The problem is when they try to impose that to those that aren’t Christians.

It is even bloodier when it comes to sex. I won’t discourage the Pope to talk about faith, but seriously, sex? What does a priest know about sex? Or about homosexuality? Or about abuses? Well, maybe about that they know one or two things.

Last storms came from three especially Catholic places: Latin America, Spain and Africa. The first one has the biggest Catholic population, the second one is draining Catholic faith at the biggest rate in the world and the third one is the main hope for the Church.

In Latin America a buzz was hit after a Brazilian bishop excomulgated the mother, the doctors and the sanitary personnel who helped a nine years old girl in an abortion. In Brazil, abortion is legal when the life of the mother is threatened or when there has been a rape. In this case, both were involved.

Also the abortion is the issue in Spain. After protesting for the atheist advertising campaign on public buses, the bishops have launched another campaign asking for a complete banning on abortion. Fair enough, each one looking for whatever they feel right. But putting face to face a baby and a lynx puppy, and asking for more protection to the babies to equalize the protection of the lynx, is at best, inappropriate. We have to remember that the Iberic Lynx is the only feline under the category of seriously endangered species in the world, with less than 200 animals in total worldwide.

It didn’t come unadverted for the Church in Spain the case of a child who has been saved by his newborn brother from leukemia by a genetic procedure. The baby was the embryo chosen to become viable for his genetic material, compatible with his brother blood type. But that, of course, is an indescriptible sin.

But the worst of all comes from Africa. Here, the Pope has given a marvelous lesson: “Condoms worsen the AIDS”. Well done, Mr. Ratzinger. Apart from being destroying the work of millions of volunteers and NGOs, saying that in a continent with the 12% of the world population but the 60% of world HIV infected is like writing down a death sentence for millions. At best, is unwise and careless; at worst is even criminal, like Ramón Lobo status in his blog. He also brings us a story from a nun in Africa:

I’ve seen model missionaries giving condoms in hospitals and masses in places where, if God really exists, he should appear everyday because it is not enough with just a miracle in those places. I remember the case of a nun in a hospital in Rwanda. I told her off like kidding: “Sister, don’t you know that the Vatican has banned condoms?” After looking at me as if I was an alien, she answered: “The 5th Amendment says You won’t kill, and this here, is a life matter”. When I tried to continue talking, she shut me up by handling my hand and she said: “If I have to choose between the Vatican and God, I already have done my choice”.

If a nun says that God is not in the Vatican, I believe her.







It is a Manel Fontdevila’s cartoon.
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Visual education: the breakdown at a glance

A "diet" post for today. Just videos. The breakdown in (slightly more than) ten minutes.

The first one is for the parents: what is all this about and how everything started:

The Last Laugh - George Parr - Subprime - subtitulos
by erioluk

Second one, for kids: who is Madoff, what he did, how and… well, don’t try to make this at home, kids:



The third one is a demonstration of angry Americans in the streets of NY the day after we knew about AIG scandal. Well, kinda. By the way, is it possible to spot the building the company is about to sell to bail herself out:

The Daily Show With Jon StewartM - Th 11p / 10c

Rage in the Streets

Daily Show Full Episodes
Important Things w/ Demetri Martin

Political Humor
Jim Cramer

And finally, for those shocked by AIG case, I wonder why they are so surprised. As if we didn’t know already how were these guys from Wall Street. Tip: Greedy.

The Daily Show With Jon StewartM - Th 11p / 10c

Clusterf#@k to the Poor House - Wall Street Bailout

Daily Show Full Episodes
Important Things w/ Demetri Martin

Political Humor
Jim Cramer

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Friendly fire 16/03/09

- AIG will never learn. Now, daddy is angry.

- The war is on in Mexico. The market of drugs is hot in Canada. And the USA is the supermarket for the narcos. Call it a NAFTA for the narcos.

- Israel goes further right: Lieberman appointed as Foreign minister.

- How to turn a black menace into a green opportunity.

- ISS evacuated.

Extra: Everyone cheers with Jon Stewart.



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Worldwide

I have to say that I didn’t expect this, but I’ve been awarded with a prize! Well, it is actually more a moral prize than a real one, but it is as worthiness as money! Hayda Ramos, a fellow journalist, has given me a “This blog is a jewel” prize. And now I have to pass it over. There it goes:


- Curistoria (Spanish): Small details that doesn’t appear in the books of History. But without them, History wouldn’t be what it is.
- Real Clear Politics (English): Up-to-the-minute up-to-date information about American politics
- Crónicas desde Oriente Próximo (Spanish): Articles from various journalist working for the Spanish paper El Mundo in Middle East.
- BBC Mundo (Spanish): The blog made by the journalist in the Spanish service of the BBC.
- Algodón Azul (Spanish): The blog of Hayda, who gave me the price. Not politics, not current affairs; just life, that is more than enough, and how to survive it. Updated in an impressive daily basis!

It's just left to thank Hayda for the prize and I'll try to continue as until now.

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No Freemen under Israel lobby watch

Let’s say you are doing your job. Your manager comes and says you: “Congratulations, you are going to be promoted”. Then, from your department and other departments inside the company, people start to criticize openly the decision, start to demand that it doesn’t apply and start to dig into your past in search for dirty stuff you could have (like write your blog while you should be working)

That’s mobbing. Except if you are a politician. In politics, it is called a “lobby” and not only is permited; it is in fact what keeps the machine working.

There is nothing wrong with a lobby. Except if that lobby has so much power that is able of, not just introduce some healthy debate, but to determine the foreign policy of the country or undermine their representatives. That’s worrying. Even more if it is a lobby of another country

That’s exactly what has happen in the USA with Charles “Chas” Freeman and the Israel lobby. Freeman was the appointee by Obama for the title of President of the National Intelligence Council. Basically what this council does is coordinate the work of the different Intelligence Agencies and was created after 9/11.

Freeman was a good choice. He had experience as former ambassador in Saudi Arabia with George Bush Sr., 17 other ex-ambassadors were backing him (even some of them disagree with him, but they valued his experience) and, as the appointment didn’t need the approval of the Senate, there shouldn’t be any problems for him.

But there was a problem. In the Past, Freeman have had made declarations critical with the Israeli policy. Don’t take this wrong; they weren’t against Israeli policy, they were just critical.

Enough. For the Israel lobby that was enough to start a campaign against Freeman. First it was only disagreement with the nomination, then it turned into an unsustainable pressure. The full story is in Andrew Sullivan’s blog.

When he renounced, Freeman know exactly who to blame:

"I regret that my willingness to serve the new administration has ended by casting doubt on its ability to consider, let alone decide what policies might best serve the interests of the United States rather than those of a Lobby intent on enforcing the will and interests of a foreign government."

For the NYT, however, it isn’t so clear that all this is because the pressure -what pressure?- of the Israel lobby -what lobby?

Like the first rule of the Fight Club: You don’t talk about the Fight Club; Fight Club doesn’t exist. Likewise. Israel lobby doesn’t exist. And even if it does, the visible head of the Jews in Washington, the AIPAC, wasn’t involved for once. Kinda sorta. And this was something easy to predict:

“Just how controversial the choice would be became clear on Tuesday, when Mr. Freeman, a former ambassador to Saudi Arabia under the first President Bush, angrily withdrew his name from consideration and charged that he had been the victim of a concerted campaign by what he called “the Israel lobby.”

“What Freeman says”, as if all was a conspiracy against the Jews. In fact, these guys are experts taking the inside out and to portray their attacks as a defense against them, the primary victims. Doesn’t matter if in Gaza, in a court room, in a newspaper’s office or in Washington’s corridors. You are with them or you are an anti-semite.

But NYT fights almost alone. From The Economist to the Foreign Policy, almost everyone accepts the existance of an Israel lobby and its oversized power in Washington.

Bad side of the story is that this is not the first time this happens neither will be the last one. The worst side of the story is that Obama let it go without even facing the battle. It is not enough to ban executives to receive gifts from the lobbies, it is also necessary to combat their power in Washington.

And of course, in Palestine should be forgetting any hope of change regarding to Obama’s Israeli approach..



The cartoon is from the Jordan newspaper Al-Ghad.

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Financial heroes and villains

Osama bin Laden must be getting really green. With envy. Not even his new videoclip megahit has been able to bring him back to the position of Most Hated Criminal. These days that title goes to Bernie Madoff, the world’s biggest white collar thief for many -just another banker for many more. His are the frontpages and the headlines.

Both for bin Laden and Madoff Jews have been their preferred preys. But the second one, it is estimated, has caused more economic damage than September 11. And it isn’t over.

Bernie woke up being the prisoner no. 61727-054 in a federal low security compound. The old man took over himself the blame in the pyramidal fraud uncovered at the end of past year. He faces a 150 years sentence; a life sentence actually. But he doesn’t have much to lose: being 70 years old and maybe battling a cancer, he has done everything he needed to do on life.

Still, Bernie tries to stay out of prison. Neither the affected are happy with the results. They demanded blood, they wanted revenge, they have a pure hate and want to see Madoff -and his su family- suffer the same way they do. In the end, as The Economist says, here there are not heroes; just villains.

Meanwhile the financial crisis goes on. But optimists began to arise. Ben Bernanke, Fed’s President, thinks all this nightmare will be over by 2009. His European counterpart, Jean Claude Trichet, thinks mostly the same.

Some others don’t give dates, just signs. Like Nobel prize winner Edmund Phelps, who says that the end will be close when the banks start to shut up their mouths a bit more -bad timing for becoming more transparent, ask the Swiss. Professors Nicholas Colas and Oren Klachkin, on the other hand, are betting for giving ten headlines that will anticipate the end of the crisis.

But none of the can guarantee anything. Someone said that “economic forecasts exist just to give astrology some credibility”. Many people went to Madoff thanks to that. And many people listen still to the CNBC to inform themselves.

Ah, the CNBC... A few months ago, Jim Cramer, anchorman of the cable channel, advised his watchers to buy Bear Sterns’ shares just days before it imploded. Jon Stewart, from Paramount Comedy, attacked him. Cramer retaliated. Finally, Stewart’s answer arrived:

The Daily Show With Jon StewartM - Th 11p / 10c

In Cramer We Trust

Daily Show Full Episodes
Important Things w/ Demetri Martin

Political Humor
Jim Cramer

Maybe they shouldn’t block Stewart’s “Fuck you!”. Maybe then Cramer will understand it and he would avoid see himself being ridiculized (again) nationwide in a face-to-face with Stewart.

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Army men gets into Google vs Apple wars

For years, the Army has been after a device capable of knock out gadgets. Until now they only were able to shut down the electrical power with graphite bombs. Trying to use an EMP (Electromagnetic Pulse) was not recommended as it world switch off as well their own machines. And usually, military commands prefer to use the traditional way: make everything explode. Now maybe they have found the way to make both at the same time.

The new e-bomb is capable of, on one hand, explode as any other conventional device, and on the other hand, be able to kill all the electronic devices around with an EMP. A great idea, only that many of the military gadgets, usually, are heavily protected against an EMP. The only thing that would end fried will be the civilian iPods. Maybe that’s just another way to put people against their government.

But maybe the Army don’t even need of a bomb. Since last Wednesday, Apple faces a lawsuit after an iPod was caught on fire inside the pants of a kid. Just like that. If all iPods in the world started to explode, that would be a real revolution.

Apple fans are today far beyond the ones at the beginning. “Thinks different” slogan doesn’t apply anymore if everyone carries the white mp3 player in their pockets or wants an iPhone. The matter turns more worryingly, even with a sectarian shadow overhead, for some cases. Half of the world fears losing their jobs; meanwhile, Apple-addicts long cried after losing Jobs. Even Wall Street went mad.

But it is not with Apple only. Google as well carries a crowd of fans behind itself. Millions of people that every day use Google Calendar, Maps, Froogle, Checkout, Gmail, Latitude, iGoogle, Reader, Earth, Finance, Picasa, Talk, Docs, Scketchup, Youtube and Trends. And obviously, the Internet searcher.

The worrying comes from the amount of data Google knows about us. But in the end, it is not much more than what Visa or MasterCard know about you (and what Visa and MasterCard know about is probably more and more embarrassing)

World was divided between communism and capitalism. Today, it is divided between Apple and Google. Both the same fanatism. Even when it comes to the social network.

PS. My side for this war... Well, it is easy to guess.

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OZ: Raptors? JSF? No, thanks.

Australian Government decided this week which aircraft will become the backbone of the RAAF for the next decade. At the beginning, it was thought that Oz would buy the JSF, as the F-22 Raptor (the first option) cannot be sold outside the US. But both jets are getting a bumpy trip to the market.

In fact, the Raptor is already calling wolf to save itself. After being reduced once and again the number of aircrafts the USAF will acquire, Pentagon is out of ideas of what to do to pledge for more Raptors. So now they link the jet production to the loss of jobs. Give us Raptors or people will lose their jobs.

The message is so good (although not quite accurate with reality) that both the Navy and the Army are using the same system to beg for more funding for their submarines and tanks, respectively.

But at the end, it seems like the JSF will lose another buyer. Wallabies decided to bet for an ol’ known: the Hornet. Well, the Super Hornet. Well, actually, the Growler.

Reasons argued for this decision were that the Growler cost much less than the others (it is just an update of the already purchased Super Hornets) and they get in exchange Electronic Warfare and Counter Terrorism/Insurgent Warfare capabilities.

Of course, the fact that a Growler shot down a Raptor in an air-to-air combat dogfight exercise was not relevant. In the end, shooting down Raptors (the most advanced jet ever built) is becoming very usual.




Photo: The DEW Line

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Arms-dog Millionaire

The missile market is on fire. If previously in Worldwide we talked about Korea, Iran and UK and USA pretensions to improve their arsenals, now it is the turn for Israel. And what does Israel do? They dance Bollywood-style.

Carried over the fever around “Slumdog Millionaire” success in the Oscars, the Arms-dog Millionaire Israeli missile manufacturer Rafael has launched a promotional video for the Indian market. But it cannot be explained with words. You have to watch it. Otherwise you wouldn’t believe me.

But it gets better. Asked by journalist Stephen Trimble about the video, Rafael media kids admitted that not only the video is real, but there are more country versions.

"In Brazil we did a video of football. Football is very big there. In Paris the video had a theme that included Napoleon and the Renaissance. In Poland our video had themes of Chopin and Copernicus. In England it was about Shakespeare".

Please, please, please… If someone gets his/her hands on the French video, let me know. I’m definitely looking forward to watch that Paris video.



Photo: Slumdog Millionaire.
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Friendly fire 12/03/09

- Miss Atom 2009 contest’s results are in, and the winner is: Yekaterina Bulgakova. The prize: a weekend holiday in the communist paradise of Cuba.

- Drone wars: Taliban say they shot down an American UAV over Pakistan; USA say they shot down an Iranian UAV over Iraq.

- History lessons in animated .gif’s for teens addicted to the Internet. This week: I World War.



- France as the prodigal son of NATO.

- Massacre in a school in Germany. Apparently the gun madness is not only a problem in America, but in Europe too.


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Outta here... And then, what?

For the USA, the exit from Iraq finally looks close in the calendar. The news about the deployment in Afghanistan came by the hand of the announcement of the withdrawn from Iraq. At the end, two thirds of the troops on the ground will be at home -or at a new home at the other side of Iran- by August 2010. In the Tigris valley they will remain around 50,000 soldiers, many of them for training purposes.

Britons are also pulling out from Iraq this year. In fact, the withdrawn has already began. Just now that in London politicians are arguing about the documents and tapes of meetings about Iraqi invasion that right now are being unclasified.

But some will stay in Iraq for long. Like mercenaries. They will continue keeping peace -their way- and writing excellent rimes in the latrines of hell for a while. On the American side, also a lot of heavy equipment -mainly attack helicopters will remain in Iraq.

Anyway, in less than a year, Iraq will have to deal mostly on his own with his own problems. The transfer of power has already began. In April -two weeks ahead- the control of the sunni militia “The Sons of Iraq” will be in government hands, in what is one of the biggest gambles and a great risk for the future of the country. The transfer of equipment is also going on.

But what Iraq really needs is to start forming itself as a country. Internally, there is the risk that after the Americans leave (or even before) the Tigris valley will implode into a civil war. The problem is not Al Qaeda; it is Kirkuk, the Kurds and their relationship with Maliki’s central Government. The first ones wants more self Gevernment but Maliki fears a secession and that keeps him from converting Iraq in a Federal country.

In foreign policy he doesn’t look so afraid. Soon he will welcome new Obama’s ambassador for Iraq. Right now is in a tour in Australia, thanking this country for their sacrifice in the Middle East. And the President, Mr. Talabani, is now in Tehran in an ECO (Economic Cooperation Organization) summit with more regional leaders, including Turkish and Iranians.

But the biggest threat is, as we said before, at home. The death toll of civilians rises everyday and it doesn’t look that it’s going to be better in the future. And still, they have to juggle between foreign interests and home interests like with the shoe thrower incident. It is still unclear how Iraqis will “celebrate” the three years jailing against what they consider a national hero.



Foto: AP
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China's balancing acts

Chinese borders have seen an unusual increase of tension during the last week. Well, the unusual is not the tension; it is the increase in many fronts at the same time.

With the warrant from the ICC of The Hague over Sudanese president al-Bashir, came also a complicated gambling for the Asian giant. The business with the African country play an important role in China’s economy, but it implies a risky game involving Human Rights. Just in case everything goes wrong, Beijing announced this week a new deal with Iraq to be provided of oil.

Closer to home, North Korea has lightened up a few alarms. This time it wasn’t the worrying about Pyongyang’s nuclear program, but the increasing troubles with their southern neighbors. The trigger has been this time the joint war games that every year Seoul does with the USA. After the shut down of the direct communications between the two countries, it followed an increase in the rethoric of war, including soldier mobilizations and plans of defence. At the end it won’t reach to anything real serious, but for now China and Russia have already asked to both parties to take it easy and slow down the war machine.

The fact of North Korea testing a long range missile and launching a satellite doesn’t help, and worries both the US and Russia, this one asking for a space free of weapons.

Precisely with the USA China had another encounter during this week. The Department of Defense protested last Wednesday because a few Chinese boats shadowed an American unarmed ship, with civil contratists on board and in international waters. Apparently, a few rapid small boats and an intelligence slip approached the American slip -and a destroyer- with a provocative attitude. It is not clear if the provocative attitude was that the Chinese sailors lost their clothes and were doing obscene signs in their underwear to the Americans or it was something else.

Truth about the incident is not so clear. What the DoD is not telling us is that probably those ships were looking for submarines instead of mapping the sea bottom, as it was stated at the beginning. They have the equipment for that, and they are used for that. At the end, it seems that both Chinese and Americans are willing to shut down the incident for the greater good. The classical “I don’t show your dirt if you don’t show mine”.

Inside China, problems haven’t ended. To the risk of deflation and the corruption, this week joined the party the recurrent problem of Tibet, with protesters all over the world asking for the end of the occupation, lasting now for 50 years. Washington maybe accepted to shut up with the sea incident, but they won’t do it with this. And, obviously, Beijing didn’t like it. The banning of foreigners in the area didn’t help the image of China abroad. It appeared as an oppressor of Human Rights. And balancing acts with Human Rights is a risky gamble that China shouldn’t play.



Photo: Gopal Chitrakar/Reuters
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Missiles

The advance in military cooperation between Russia and the US goes on. The time of confrontation and warnings seems far behind us after Obama went into the White House.

Next face to face will be during the G-20 meeting and is expected the missile shield America plans to put in Europe will be part of the agenda.

Since the beginning, Russia betted for a joint initiative -or otherwise, nothing at all- but that offer was repeatedly refused by Bush administration. With Obama in the office, Biden opened a door for cooperation with Russia in his first international appearance with NATO partners. Ok, Biden was reassuring the willing of Washington in going on with the Project, but at least was handing its hand to Moscow for cooperation.

In a latter letter from Obama to Medvedev -although it is still uncertain that letter ever existed- American president linked the cancellation of the missile shield to the help of Russia against a nuclear Iran. By the way, also the American-Russian nuclear disarm will be in the agenda.

Meanwhile, at the same time Moscow and Washington are talking about burying their missiles, other nations eaging to get into the nuclear club are testing theirs. In Iran, to the worrying about the launch of a satellite on last month, now we have to add the tests for a new type of missile. The wondering comes around which one and what for. Korea, on the other hand, is also testing its own long range missiles no matter what says Ms. Clinton. The weapon is suspected to have a range action able to reach Australia.

Normally, Australia shouldn’t be worried about that. In the end, they are protected under the nuclear umbrella of the USA and the UK, based on their Trident missiles. Unfortunately, American engineers have forgotten how to make them. Apparently, they lost the blueprints to make a critical component of the nuclear device while moving out from their old premises. It jeans a delay in the fabrication -or update or old devices- of at least twelve months and $69 million more to the budget. Obama will be happy.



Photo: Trident missile (going wrong). CNN

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