Arms race goes east II (The Dragon wakes up)

2030 is also the date in red on Chinese’s agenda. By then, according to the graphics we have been seeing for a decade, they will be the first economy of the world, way upper than the USA. And of course, it’s expected that the military power will follow similar paths as the economic development.

But we don’t have to go so far. Today’s Chinese Armed Forces are a power to take in consideration. And even a step behind, the number of them and their inventiveness keeps them in the frontline. Well, maybe inventiveness is a bit excessive, as many progression is not theirs, but a copy of other’s work.

However, whatever they do, they are doing it well. In less than what was expected, they have jumped from third generation jets to the fourth (Europe and the USA have already their 5th gen. fighters, the Eurofighter and Raptor respectively; and Russia works in the details for his own fifth gen. jet). But we should note that they were helped by the Russians in this jump (not willingly, however). But the fact is that now, they not only have a plane more than capable of facing the Hornets, Eagles and Sukhois in an air battlefield, but also to plant battle in the markets. And a better positioning in the places where this kind of planes might interest (Asia, Latin America and Africa).

Also the Navy sails with full power. The construction of a medical ship in November, woke up all kina of rumors in the West. This kind of ships have two primary tasks: help the casualties from conflicts far from the homeland, or help with humanitarian aid operations. It may be that China, ashamed after being unable to help in 2006 after the tsunami in Thailand, is trying to solve that for the future. But neocons in Washington prefer to think it is because of the other option, much more sinister.

Something else starting to take off in China is the naval air power. Today, the Chinese are the only superpower without a carrier capability. That will change from now to 2030. The dragons have announced they plan to build between four and six mid-size carriers. Like as it happened with Iran, some analysts are already calling wolf.

Truth, however, is slightly different. Four, six or even ten carriers don’t present a big threat. Kyle Mizokami gives ten reasons why we shouldn’t fear the Chinese. Norman Polmar also uses similar arguments. But over all that, over the difference in quality, quantity and experience, it would be the fact of China being more likely a friend than a foe.

Much more dangerous than a few carriers looks the possibility of the Chinese modifying ICBMs to target Western carriers. They never have said so, but a carrier is the only target possible that meets the description of a “big mobile sea target”. Either is that or the golf ball. But again, although it may be scary, is not something worth to worry. Many nations, including Australia, the UK and India already have anti-carriers measures. But these kinds of weapons are considered more a defensive mean than an offensive one. So, unless the US plans to attack China (and they don’t), there is nothing to fear.

The most imminent threat to the Americans may come from Korea. As demonstrated this week, its nuclear program and its ballistic missiles program make them the biggest menace to region stability. But of course, Korea doesn’t need any kind of advertising, Kim il-Jong already does his job now and then to make sure everyone notices him.



Photo PLA