Jong-il strikes back

It seems like if Kim Jong-il North Korea was determined to appear on the frontpage of worldwide newspapers everyday. In the last two weeks, we have had news from Korea in three different fronts.

Probably the less worrying is the concerning to the leader succession. Continuous rumors about Jong-il’s health problems have leakened to the press for years, in a way similar to what happened to Castro. But still, very few is known about this issue.

Many sources identify Jong-il’s youngest son as the most plausible successor of his father. Kim Jong-un was, apparently, finally desinged as that after last nuclear tests. But even that is unclear even after a week.

Not much more is known about Jong-un himself. He is around 25 years old and educated in Switzerland. That and a photo of him when he was 11 years old is everything known about him. His older brother, however, is well known. But he doesn’t represent any threat. Not interested in politics, the older son of Jong-il prefers the casinos of Macau to his homeland.

Last week also were on the frontpages around the world the news about two American journalists arrested in the border with China and condemned to 12 years of forced works. Accused of espionage, they will be “re-educated” in a labor camp. But according with what is known about North Korean labor camps, it won’t be pleasant.

The bad taste joke that plays destiny with the US is that re-education methods used in these camps are the same used in Guantanamo (in fact, the ERE survival guides which are the basis for Guantanamo tortures were written after the experiences with the Koreans and Vietnamese) So, if Guantanamo’s methods are not torture, the US won’t be able to claim tortures on the two journos.

But clearly, the biggest issue has been the military escalade. It all started with North Korea’s missile. After the missile came a nuke test. And they may be more on the way, despite the warnings and sanctions from the UN.

The USA has already responded deploying troops and exercising with the South Koreans at the south of the DMZ. The DPRK gave back the ball chasing South Korean vessels and entering into SK national waters. This maritime tension continues growing up to today and there are worries about an attempt to launch a naval clash from the north. It is especially suspicious not the fact of North Korean vessels patrolling the area, but the ausence of movements from the Chinese fishing fleet.

Then Clinton warned Pyongyang with including it again in the list of terrorist states if they continue that way. Meanwhile, plans to face a possible ground invasion from the north of the 38 parallel were taking place.

Jong-il’s regime threatened then with a nuke total offensive and a “merciless attack”. But according to Gates, they wouldn’t be able to do so and the US may abort that attack immediately. Japan is on alert too and recently the American Senate opened the gate for the Raptor exports. Another reason for Jong-il to think twice before attacking.

However, the most plausible scenario is just a few more up toned words, maybe another nuclear test to provoke from Pyongyang and more sanctions from the UN. And then, back to every day’s game. Although some people in Washington are already theorizing about a postapocaliptic aftermath to the second Korea war, many more argue it will be highly improbable for that to happen. Thank God, because this was starting to be a bit worrying after Ahmadinejad’s victory.



Photo: DMZ / The Guardian - AP


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