Will it be war in Korea?

Kim Jong-un seems to be finally wearing his father’s shoes. He is even surpassing the boldness of his predecessor. The young one is pushing an escalation of the nuclear diplomacy the North Koreans have mastered for years. However, the dangers come from the lack of knowledge about the new leaders more than from what it may actually happen in the end.

Most of what is happening now has happened before to some degree. The US and South Korea usually have drills in the region. North Korea usually responds harshly to it. And North Korea usually tests every new Prime Minister of the South when they access the office. That is all according to the script.

It wouldn’t even be the first time they exchange fire. As recently as in the past three years, North Korea shelled a South Korean island, which retaliated. The North also -allegedly- sank a South Korean corvette, an act that didn’t have a military response from the South.

There are, however, too many changes to be able to know what will happen next. There are new leaders in both Koreas and in China. The latter, only ally of the North Koreans, recently distanced from them by sanctioning the Kim regime in the UN for their last nuclear test.

But being more isolated is where NK’s strength resides. The Kim dynasty has made of isolation a weapon and it is partially the reason it has survived for so long. A society open to the world, like Iran’s, wouldn’t have been so forgiving of the difficulties it is going through in exchange for nukes.

The speech of threat to the South forms part of that strategy too. Despite the recent lack of food and famine due to a poor harvest, Kim has been able to keep the North’s society united around the leadership by crying wolf in the form of the US and Seoul.

By keeping a constant message of fear, Kim manages to maintain cohesion among North Koreans. This may be more needed than ever before if the rumors of an attempted coup that surfaced on March 13^th are true.

Kim Jong-un, however, has gone a step further with that speech of threat since he accessed the office. He has surpassed his father successfully launching a satellite, test firing another long-range rocket (that failed) and resuming the nuclear program.

These last successful trials (the satellite launch and the nuclear test) may have encouraged the young Kim to impatiently launch threats his country cannot fulfill, like attacking mainland America. The latest moves have been cutting communications with the south, banning access to the joint factory park of Kaesong and pointing the batteries of missiles and artillery to the south.

The truth is no one really wants war. South Korea’s capital, Seoul, would be likely carpeted from the north and little could be done to minimize it. Only during the first hour of conflict, 500,000 rounds of artillery could hit the capital. Conservative estimates suggest a death toll of at least 100,000 casualties only in the city.

North Korea also knows that they would have only 24 hours, maybe 48, until they would be obliterated by the US. The use of nuclear weapons so close to its own population would be suicidal for the north without the intervention of the US. Both Koreas would have too much to lose and little to gain.

Jean Lee, the Pyongyang AP bureau chief and one of the few Western reporters on the ground, said that even amid the latest threats, “Inside Pyongyang, much of the military rhetoric feels like theatrics.”

Business was going as usual and, she noted, “in a telling sign that even the North Koreans don’t expect war, the national airline, Air Koryo, is adding flights to its spring lineup and preparing to host the scores of tourists they expect.” Forcing the south and the US to the negotiation table is what is worth for the North Koreans.

Photo AP

The rest of the actors aren’t any keener to go to war. Japan doesn’t want to be again the target of a nuclear attack and they know they are within the range of North Korean missiles. The US, on the other hand, is fairly safe North Korea can’t hit its territory. But being in withdraw from Iraq and Afghanistan, it doesn’t make sense to get involved in what could be the bloodiest conflict since 1945.

On the other side, China is not interested in a conflict in the area. Focused on the economy, a war in the region would threaten the growth of the country. An influx of refugees inside its north-eastern border is an added problem. Added to that, if North Korea is annihilated, it could mean US troops on its border while Kim’s regime is now a firewall that would be disadvantageous to lose.

All things considered, recent history tells us it is not likely this will escalate into a full blown war. But as Foreign Policy puts it, “for half a century, neither side believed that the benefits of starting a major war outweighed the costs; the worry is that the new North Korean leader might not hold to the same logic, given his youth and inexperience”. Kim Jong-un is not crazy as some draw him, but our best bet is hoping he is not suicidal either.