"Gangnam style" rockets

The odds are against them. So far, the atmosphere has beaten North Korea rocket launch attempts by 4-0 since 1998. Yet, here they come again with another satellite launch -allowing snow clears up. Persistent they are.

It will be conveniently timed to commemorate the passing away of late Kim Jong-il and to interrupt the southern neighbors’ election. This time, however, the Pentagon is saying that Kim Jong-un could at least improve where his father failed.

That wouldn’t be that difficult. All of the previous attempts by North Korea of putting a satellite in orbit have failed miserably. That’s it, at least, according to the United States. If you want to believe the DPRK official statements, all four previous launches have been a success or received with silence.

That is what happened in 1998 when a rocket dove in the Sea of Japan (a success according to DPRK sources) or 2006 when it blew up soon after takeoff (silence). Kim Jong-il’s last attempt at it in 2009 must be now broadcasting Korean anthems from a deep oceanic orbit, (although the North Koreans insist the satellite is up there in the sky, no one else in the world could see or hear anything). And his son’s baptism of fire ended in failure soon after launch.

One would think that over time the North Koreans would improve on their attempts, but that doesn’t seem to be the case. In fact, Brian Weeden, a former officer with the U.S. Air Force Space Command told Wired’s blog Danger Room that they seem to be getting worse, “going backwards as they keep making changes without truly understanding what went wrong in each case”.

Part of the problem is that the DPRK doesn’t test their rockets. They just announce launches and publicize them as a propaganda weapon. If they were testing the rockets before they actually did it for good, failures could be identified and the tech could be fine-tuned. But also that would likely mean more sanctions.

Photo: Pedro Ugarte/AFP

Whatever the outcome this time, the US has mobilized two or three missile frigates to monitor the launch -and they probably will learn more than the North Koreans from it. If the US is so worried about it is because the tech used to put payloads in orbit is basically the same that is used in Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBM), which would be capable of hitting continental America.

Meanwhile, many other countries are watching the launch. Japan and Korea are worried for the improvement of the DPRK military capabilities. China because it might be an obstacle for peace. And others are worried for a much more real possibility: Philippines and Australia are afraid the launch will fail again and debris will fall over them.

Another country that will be following closely this rocket is Iran. The two countries signed an agreement earlier in 2012 to collaborate in science and technology and Iranian staff has been stationed at North Korean sites for weeks. Both nations share a common interest in the pursue of space and nuclear technology.