Voting (Updated)

Two European states go to the polls this weekend. In Portugal, the Socialist Party is headed to a narrow win according to the polls. But all that can change dramatically depending on the 20% of Portuguese that don’t know yet who to vote. However, the big fish is up north.

Germany is voting now too for a new Government that might not be that new after all. The current Chancellor, Angela Merkel, is set to repeat on her job. What are to be decided are the travel companions. And depending on the options, there is a coloured output available.

For the past four years, a coalition of the Christian Democrats (CDU, centre-right) and the Social Democrats (SPD, centre-left), the two largest parties in the country, has ruled the biggest European economy. That has made the campaign quite boring. No one was determined to undermine the last Government because all of them were in it.

However, with the unstable economic climate ahead in mind, both parties are looking to lose weight and sail a bit freer.

It looks good for Ms. Merkel, who according to all polls will repeat in the Chancellery. The most probable coalition would be with the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP), creating a black-yellow coalition. Less likely appears a coalition of those two with the Green Party, forming a “Jamaican” union (black-yellow-green).

More complicated looks for the SPD. Prior to Ms. Merkel, a red-green coalition (SDP-Green party) ruled the country under Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder. But that’s unlikely to happen again. Both parties, combined, won’t have enough support according to the polls. If they joined Die Linke (the Left) they might have some chances, but that possibility has already been ruled out by the SDP.

The only options would be either convincing the Free Democrats to join them and the Greens (in a “traffic lights” coalition, red-yellow-green) or forming a Government in minority and having to submit all their proposals to the Parliament’s approval.

Either way, both for the SDP and the CDU, won’t be a pleasant ride. The CDU has internal problems with their partners in Baviera and depending on the coalition chosen, it might derivate into secession within the party. The most probable trigger for that is a renewal of the CDU-SDP coalition.

But also, the SDP’s best option to enter into the Government is becoming a junior member of it under Merkel’s umbrella. And once there, they might try to overtake the government, as they did in the past.

Whatever the final outcome is, not much will change in the main issues affecting Germany. Sure, if the CDU-Free Democrats alliance sails away, there will be tax cuts; and if the SDP-Green tie-up success, there will be a more leftist approach. But apart from that, main aspects will remain the same.

That might upset someone in the Afghan-Pakistan border, who made two videos threatening the Germans if they don’t withdraw from Afghanistan. Yes, we’re talking about bin Laden and friends.

UPDATE: First provisional results give Merkel an easy win and facilitates a CDU-FDP coalition.

Graphics: BBC

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