Sarko secures the Brazilian job (now, for the Indian job)

Brazil announced on Monday the decision to purchase 36 Rafale for the F-X2 program. The operation also includes 12 Brazilian Embraer KC-390 tanker-transport planes to be exported to Paris, a lot of tech exchange between the two companies and joint ventures for the future. The plan can be worth $7 billion.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy acted as a chief negotiator for Dessault, a political pressure difficult to match by the other bidders of the contract (the Swedish Grippen and the American Super Hornet). As Robert Wall writes in Aviation Week’s Ares blog, “French president Nicolas Sarkozy has been aggressive -some may say shameless- in acting as the chief salesman for the country’s aerospace and defense industry”.

The latest visit to Brazil of Mr. Sarkozy was perfect to seal the deal. But political pressure hasn’t been the only player on the bid. A great part of it came from the tech transfer the French are happy to make, which American government isn’t. The Grippen has also American components that would be subject to the same restrictions. “What’s important for us is to have access to the technology to make this plane in Brazil,” said Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.

Deal is not closed yet and other bidders may still get a part of the cake. But for now, a few questions are on the air. Stephen Trimble from the DEW line draws them:

1. Will Dassault agree to open a final assembly line for the Rafale F3 in Brazil?
2. Will Embraer invite Dassault to join the supply chain for the KC-390?
3. Does this potential deal pave the way for Embraer and Dassault to collaborate on next-generation projects, such as a fifth-generation fighter and a 737/A320 replacement?
4. How will Brazil's decision to select the Rafale play in India, which is considering all of the same bidders for the far more lucrative MMRCA project?
5. Is Switzerland now Saab's best (only?) chance to win an export contract for the JAS 39 Gripen?

From all of them, no. 4 is probably the best questions of all. India's program MMRCA is looking for a 4th generation plane able to fit in the gap between their most advanced Su-30 and their light attack jets Texas LCA. A fighter to substitute the Mirage 2000 now in duty.

MiG has offered the MiG-29 OVT (aka MiG-35) but lacks the problem of availability, as the Russians are uncapable of delivering the planes before 2013-14. The Eurofighter Typhoon, the F-16 Block 60+, the already on use updated version of the Mirage 2000-5 and the F-35 are over the table too. But as with Brazil’s deal, Boeing’s Super Hornet, Swedish Grippen and Dessault’s Rafale are the best positioned. Again, the Grippen is behind for its uncapability of operating from carriers. But this time is a real deal.



Photo: Dessault

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