Not like this

It seems like if the shit is about to hit the fan in Afghanistan. If it haven’t, yet. Problems, problems and more problems is the only thing on sight for the Western coalition and their Afghan allies.

Day after day allegations for fraud on the last presidential elections grow exponentially. Hamid Karzai needs right now only a 1.2% plus one vote more to be elected president without a second round. That’s however a false impression. According to the numbers of the Independent Electoral Commission, around 150,000 votes may be part of the fraud, so far. It’s an important amount, as much as a 4.3% of the total votes.

It doesn’t matter. As Monica Bernabe reports for El Mundo, the Independent Electoral Commission is taking them into account anyway. They are doing the same for the votes of many districts were the turnout was over 90% favourable to Karzai. According to the Electoral rules in Afghanistan, any result over the 90% favourable to an only candidate must be put on hold until investigated for fraud. Not this time.

It’s not the only allegations coming out. There are also many votes for nine previous candidates that dropped from the final lists, but whose names were in the ballots already printed. These votes are valid, however, but the Electoral Commission hasn’t got the same opinion. In the end, one less vote counted is also one less vote needed for Karzai to proclaim himself winner, as the absolute majority needed for it is achieved against the total number of votes. Less votes counted, less votes needed to be president.

However, a ridged election is not the worse of the problems for NATO. Gordon Brown and other Western figures have already praised the victory of democracy in Afghanistan (sic), but Afghanistan’s war won’t be won in the polls or the battlegrounds, but by winning people’s hearts.

As for that, it was a huge slap for NATO forces the mistake from last weekend in where dozens of civilians died when a coalition jet bombed a tanker truck surrounded by Afghans. Gen. McChrystal has been developing a tougher approach on close air support and harder rules for bombing missions, while focusing the attention in a softer handle of the situation and engaging in talks with the Taliban to support Obama’s strategy. He has even issued a handbook for commander on the ground with the new directives, including stopping driving as crazy guys in an Alabama highroad and encouraging the “human terrain” attitude.

All that, however, won’t be of any good if mistakes as the one from last weekend are to be repeated. The fireball from the tanker truck is a more vivid propaganda for the good of the Taliban than any sense of virtual security that Americans and their allies can provide. In fact, zones controlled before by American local allies are now boiling under Taliban control and their influence is spreading.

Even worse. The incident is starting to create cracks inside the Alliance. The attack was ordered in to protect some German soldiers, against McChrystal direct orders, and this is widening a rift between the US and Germany. A rift that the US has had since the beginning with all the participants in the NATO-led coalition but Britain, Canada and the Dutch. Apart from them, the presence of the rest is almost symbolical or they don't engage in combats.

With no protection nor real democracy to offer, the Western economic aid is their only argument. But if they want their aid to be of any use, better start getting rid of all that corruption. Right now, it's suspected an 85% of the money spent in Afghanistan end up directly or indirectly into Taliban hands. Not only the money, also the gear. No wonder why many in Afghanistan like a war state. It's much more profitable. And no wonder either back at the home front moral is as low as never before.




U.S. Soldiers conduct a key leader engagement at Shabow-Kheyl, Afghanistan on April 8, 2009.
Photo: UPI Photo/Christopher T. Sneed/U.S. Army

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