The end for Yugoslavia

From tomorrow, the .yu Internet domain will cease to be available anymore. The extension, assigned to the former Republic of Yugoslavia, has been substituted by .rs (Serbia) and .me (Montenegro). But this ends means for me something more. It means too the lock to another lock in a cycle started in 1992.

There is a point in every person’s life when you start to realize about the world around you. In an adult way. For me, that’s talking about 1992. The International Exposition and the Olympic Games (both in Spain) are the first pre-teenager memories -those that start forming your character- that I have clear in my mind. But talking about 1992 is talking as well about the Balkans.

Then, a Spanish reporter named Arturo Pérez-Reverte was paying his bills going around that doomed land of Europe making news for TVE, the Spanish national broadcaster. Those reports, the images from Sarajevo recorded in my retina, and that reporter are to blame of the path I chose to follow.

In 2006, still studying and with no money in my pockets, I managed to save enough to plant my boot in the Balkans. Bosnia was for me my solo fire baptism, after the test in Palestine two years before. Less special effects, less shots and fewer shouts; but much more journalism. Thanks to Dzermina, my interpreter (pictured in the photo in front of me), I was able to talk to many people during the two weeks I spent there. Some others, I just met them -in a shared taxi, in the Mostar-Sarajevo bus, in the Galerija coffee shop in Sarajevo, in the Nora hotel bar in Pristina...

Thanks to all of them I could later write my first major international story, published in a double page in the newspapers of the Grupo Izoria (parts 1 and 2). And thanks to that, I could continue publishing more stuff later about Palestine, Israel and Western Sahara.

That’s why, when I read that the last symbol of a better time -the only thing that I heard everywhere and from everyone- was about to disappear, I felt a bit nostalgic too. Another lock in a wound still not closed.

In an interview at the Veterans House of Gorazde.


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Friendly fire 29/09/09

- Taliban to Germany: Leave Afghanistan or lose Oktoberfest. Now, that's a real threat!

- How easy is policying when you get along well with your partners. Angela Merkel is already doing so.

- China, 60 years of communism with a trademark.

- Fiji troops excluded from UN peacekeeping role.

- How to: Immunize against radiation: drinking vodka.



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Micheletti raises the stakes

The situation in Honduras is hanging in a cliff. In a matter of days -ten- it could evolve into an international issue. A serious one.

Since last June, when President Manuel Zelaya was ousted, the country has lived in turmoil. Now, coinciding with the petitions from the UN to restate the constitutional order and Mr. Zelaya in his job, things are heating up.

The EU and the USA have both condemned the coup, but few less has been done. America -responsible for the 75% of Honduras’ exports- has been static doing nothing more than the initial statement. Latin American countries on the other hand have been the biggest supporters for Mr. Zelaya. They were countries like Argentina, Mexico, Brazil, Venezuela and -the only exception- Spain, who stepped up and called their ambassadors.

After returning to the country, the ousted president seeked refuge in Brazil’s embassy in Tegucigalpa. Knowing this, thousands of Mr. Zelaya’s supporters gathered in front of the embassy where he gave a speech from one of the balconies. In the demonstrations following it, dozens were detained and injured and at least three people have died since the start of the unrest.

The right and the military are still, clearly, getting nervous. And acting erratically. Immediately, Micheletti, the interim president, has started a state of alert. Nowhere says that, but it is what it looks. First, Honduras denied visas to two workers of the Spanish embassy going back from holidays and four OAS officials. A fifth one was allowed. But major concerns are within the Honduran population.

Two media have been closed; the TV broadcaster Canal 36 and the radio station Radio Globo, both pro-opposition. In addition to that, civil rights have been suspended. Among them are the rights to free speech and public gathering.

But even more important might be the decision to break diplomatic ties with Brazil. After Zelaya seeked refuge in Brazil’s embassy, and after the first clashes, the building was seized. Electricity and water supplies were cut and no-one was allowed in again. It also has been bombarded with LRAD weapons and tear gas.

Now, Micheletti’s government is giving Brazil’s diplomatic body 10 days to leave the country and formally, has denied the right of an embassy. Honduras interim government has denied any intentions to storm into Brazil’s embassy after those 10 days, but the future of Mr. Zelaya remains a mystery.

Here, a video from Al Jazeera.



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Exposed

The discovery of a secret Iranian centrifuge facility near Qom has been a major blast in International politics during the past week. It surely surprised Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who didn't expect that question coming out in an interview with Time Magazine -the expression on his face when listening to it (Ahmadinejad had no need of translators to understand that) says it all.

But also shocked the world. For months, international community focused in the possibility that Iran could low-enrich enough amount of uranium and then kick out the IAEA inspectors and upgrade it to a bomb level. This however, changes that scenario.

Not for all, has to be said. Some, like Nathan Hodge from Danger Room, are delighted now getting some weight off their chest by saying the old “I told you so”. They predicted this long time ago. As he noted, if the Iranians are to “build a bomb, they will do it someplace else. Like Qom”. The new facility (still far from operative) can be used as well as a backup for the existing in Natanz or as a training facility -or viceversa.

But back to the present scenario, every day seems more likely an attack on Iran by the end of the year. Israel has stated clearly in the past -last time was today- his intentions to bomb any threat coming from the Ayatollahs, and has been preparing the road for itself and the world for when it happens. But Israel pretensions have encountered always Washington’s opposition.

Until now. It’s believed that the revelation of the plan by Iran to the IAEA in a vague letter was made because the secrecy of the plant had been compromised. That came from the American, British and French secret services. Immediately, in the G20 summit Obama said that although their diplomacy offer remained on the table, none other options had been ruled out. That, although unlikely, includes the military option.

With the US now more inclined to support Israel, the threat for Iran is clearer. However, if there is a major swift in here is concerning Russia. China still is reluctant to impose more severe sanctions to the Persians. The Russians, however, after knowing of the secret facility -and after the withdraw of the American missile shield in Europe-, have slowly joined the European countries and America on their demands on Iran. And having the Russians on Israel’s side is a huge improvement for the Jews.

The major concern for Israel has never been America’s approval or strategic geo-political complicated outputs. It’s been internal problems, their own pilots’ safety and logistical problems. Their worry for the sold of Russian S-300 surface-to-air missiles to the Persian state -which could diminish their chances in an air attack- has even surrounded the mystery of the Arctic Sea.

Later on that incident, Binyamin Netanyahu, Israel’s Prime Minister, made a secret trip to Russia. No-one knows yet what Bibi did in Moscow. The Israeli media didn’t even know about the trip until a week after; not even the embassy staff in Russian capital knew about it. But it’s more than likely that it had to do with the S-300 missiles.

Now, providing Russia opposes too to Iran and joins the group of four (USA, UK, France and Germany) -unlikely- and Iran finally doesn’t get the weapons -more likely and enough for Israel-; the US approves the operation; and the green light from Saudi Arabia; it will clear the road for Israel.

Iran’s only option now is stop playing and coming clear -some steps made- or make a demonstration of force. Obviously, they’re going for the latter, even unintentionally.

For the past three days, the Revolutionary Guards have tested their arsenal of short, medium and long range missiles, including the Shahab-3, with a 2,000km range and capable to hit Israel. Some of the tests were delivered on Sunday, coinciding with the Jewish holiday of the Yom Kippur. Well, at least you cannot say Iranians aren’t concerned about Israelis. If Yom Kippur is all about suffering, they got a lot of people suffering of stress that day. Also in Europe.

And all that, just ahead of tomorrow's talks.

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
Photo: Reuters


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Police brutality

Protests in G20 summits are getting as common as police brutality to repress them. Pittsburg hasn’t been an exception, doesn’t matter Obama is the host.

The LRAD Sound Weapon was supposed to be created to control terrorists and angry foreigners in the Middle East. However, after passing the test in the streets of Iraq and the Gulf of Aden, now the Government is turning it against their own people. Here is the video that proves it (there are more, but were removed); the LRAD in action in Pittsburg. It’s recommended not to have a high volume when the video is played.



And that one is a soft version of it. It can get way nastier. Some noises are the most similar to “having a hundred nagging girlfriends screaming in your head” (David Axe’s dixit). Very unpleasant.

Of course, at least the LRAD doesn’t give you physical effects. Old school police brutality, however…



Both via Guerra Eterna.


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Fun index

Who said economy has to be boring? That guy hadn't seen, for sure, this app from Puma. A good way to cheer up when everything goes down. There is a different version for each of the main indexes. Via YesButNoButYes.



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Photoshots

Last week's meeting of President Obama with the world leaders in the Met in New York has gifted with some photos. Quite a lot, as everyone wanted to be on the photo with the coolest kid in the block and his wife. Sometimes it is just a reminder on how international politics are made.

Like this photo with Teodoro Obiang Nguema, the President of Ecuatorial Guinea. If you have oil, it doesn't matter how many human rights you don't respect.


Of course some of them are just hilarious. Like this one from the President of the Republic of The Gambia. Anyone can tell me what that guy has on his hands?

Others were such good photoshop material that had to be removed from the library. Like the one from President of Spain, José Luís Rodríguez Zapatero and family. Don't look for it in the general index; it was already removed:

While Zapatero's family might be frightening, other's families you'll love to invite to your house. Specially the daughter of the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Lao People's Democratic Republic. I want to believe she is over 18:

By the way, if all those guys had just made a couple of shots with two statues resembling the Obamas, no-one had noticed the difference. Both Michelle and Barack look almost the same in all the shots.

And having such tall hosts like the Obamas, it's funny how some guests appear really small. Like the President of the Republic of Nauru:

Or the President of the Federal Democratic Republic of Nepal, who tries to hide the height difference with a hat (epic fail):

Of course, there is the opposite situation with the big Emir of the State of Qatar. In that jacket, can fit at least two Obamas.


Who said politics is boring?

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Under the sand

Two sandstorms left behind an unusual bunch of postcards of Sydney. Here are some examples:





More photos in flickr and The Big Picture.

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Voting (Updated)

Two European states go to the polls this weekend. In Portugal, the Socialist Party is headed to a narrow win according to the polls. But all that can change dramatically depending on the 20% of Portuguese that don’t know yet who to vote. However, the big fish is up north.

Germany is voting now too for a new Government that might not be that new after all. The current Chancellor, Angela Merkel, is set to repeat on her job. What are to be decided are the travel companions. And depending on the options, there is a coloured output available.

For the past four years, a coalition of the Christian Democrats (CDU, centre-right) and the Social Democrats (SPD, centre-left), the two largest parties in the country, has ruled the biggest European economy. That has made the campaign quite boring. No one was determined to undermine the last Government because all of them were in it.

However, with the unstable economic climate ahead in mind, both parties are looking to lose weight and sail a bit freer.

It looks good for Ms. Merkel, who according to all polls will repeat in the Chancellery. The most probable coalition would be with the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP), creating a black-yellow coalition. Less likely appears a coalition of those two with the Green Party, forming a “Jamaican” union (black-yellow-green).

More complicated looks for the SPD. Prior to Ms. Merkel, a red-green coalition (SDP-Green party) ruled the country under Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder. But that’s unlikely to happen again. Both parties, combined, won’t have enough support according to the polls. If they joined Die Linke (the Left) they might have some chances, but that possibility has already been ruled out by the SDP.

The only options would be either convincing the Free Democrats to join them and the Greens (in a “traffic lights” coalition, red-yellow-green) or forming a Government in minority and having to submit all their proposals to the Parliament’s approval.

Either way, both for the SDP and the CDU, won’t be a pleasant ride. The CDU has internal problems with their partners in Baviera and depending on the coalition chosen, it might derivate into secession within the party. The most probable trigger for that is a renewal of the CDU-SDP coalition.

But also, the SDP’s best option to enter into the Government is becoming a junior member of it under Merkel’s umbrella. And once there, they might try to overtake the government, as they did in the past.

Whatever the final outcome is, not much will change in the main issues affecting Germany. Sure, if the CDU-Free Democrats alliance sails away, there will be tax cuts; and if the SDP-Green tie-up success, there will be a more leftist approach. But apart from that, main aspects will remain the same.

That might upset someone in the Afghan-Pakistan border, who made two videos threatening the Germans if they don’t withdraw from Afghanistan. Yes, we’re talking about bin Laden and friends.

UPDATE: First provisional results give Merkel an easy win and facilitates a CDU-FDP coalition.

Graphics: BBC

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The most moral army in the world (re-loaded)

Israeli Defense Forces’ Chief of Staff, Gabi Ashkenazi, said today that the IDF was one of the most moral armies in the world, and more specifically, among the armies in the region. This response comes after the release of Goldstone’s UN report on alleged crimes of war in operation Cast Lead last winter. Quoted from Haaretz (emphasis mine):

"But I want to say more than this," he added. "Before all the reports, immediately after the end of the operation, we investigated ourselves. Since then and up until now, we have held a process of investigation, including appeals from Palestinians."

He went on to say that from an ethical point of view, the IDF was a "light among nations."

Where have I listen this before? Oh, I remember now. Here.

I won’t repeat myself writing again the same...

IDF Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi; Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak.
Photo: AP

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Friendly fire 18/09/09

- Top destination for spies.

- Top destination for arms dealers.

- Top destination for IAEA inspectors.

- Future top destination for IAEA inspectors.

- Winter top destination for Israeli jets. Unexpected guests not welcomed.



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Missile shield, down (Twice updated)

A couple of updates that I missed yesterday.

First, Putin welcomes the decision of Obama to withdraw Bush’s plans for a ground based missile shield by freezing Russian plans to install a similar system in the Baltic.

Second, Nathan Hodge from Danger Room finds an interesting coincidence I didn’t: Obama announces the withdraw of the shield the same day that Poland remembers the Soviet invasion of the country in 1939. Unlike me, Polish’s newspapers didn’t miss that point.



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Heating up the Gulf (of Aden)

At least nine peacekeepers of the African Union (AU) were killed yesterday in a double explosion in their Mogadishu’s headquarters. Among the victims is the Burundian deputy commander. Another top commander, Ugandan General Nathan Mugisha, was also lightly wounded.

The attack has been claimed by the Islamist group al-Sahbab. The rebels suffered a big hit this week after a US raid killed one of their top commanders. Immediately, the group vowed for revenge and it has come in the way of two suicide attacks. Apparently, the rebels infiltrated the compound in two stolen UN cars and detonated them once inside.

This only comes to show once again the delicate situation in Somalia. In between the multiple war clans, sub-clans and war-lords in the region, the Islamists have taken an empty slot to finishing configuring a complex board. Somalian government is incapable of controlling more than a few quarters in Mogadishu, and that thanks to the heavy presence of international forces.

In fact, the situation is so bad for the central Government that it was themselves the ones who begged asked neighbor nations to invade them. However, they are not the only ones asking for reinforcements. The Islamists have called too on a Jihad to support the Somalian brothers in their struggle.

Al-Sahbab is making of Somalia a local hub for Islamists. Somalia is too remote, too isolated and too xenophobic to become a haven like Afghanistan was. But thanks to the lack of government of any kind, they are like at home. One of al-Qaeda’s most prominent militants, Abu Mansour al-Amriki (the American), lives there and from there has released his latest hits. Including a Jihad hip-hop song.

They feel at home, and they start to rule as if they were at home. Last month, al-Shabab was successful kidnapping two French intelligence agents that were training Somali forces. One of the escaped, but the other one remains in captivity. Now, the Islamists have released their demands for the freedom of the French agent. And they include the usual al-Qaeda cocktail: stop supporting the weak UN-backed government and hail the anti-piracy patrols.

In fact, this unruled land is the same that hosts the pirates that day after day chase the ships sailing in the Gulf of Aden. Situation is getting worse, instead of improving. It’s clear that Somalia’s inexistent navy cannot face the pirates. Actually, their navy is just starting to be built up and consists basically of a bunch of ships. Sorry, skiffs.

So, with this situation in mind, Western governments are going further. The US has started taking seriously the threat on land, as the raid previously mentioned states. Others, like the Spanish government, in cooperation with the Basque government, has authorized for the first time the hiring of private contractors and the use of long range firearms aboard Spanish and Basque ships in an attempt to deter pirates of seizing them.

The French are going ahead with another front and are proposing a stupidity tax to those who had to be rescued from pirates' hands. Makes sense as so far they have been the bussiest guys around. Three rescues in two years means there are many stupids playing in cruises in the area.

But the best improvement have come from the shipping companies. New measures have reduced the number of assaults dramatically.

Not that all that it’s going to make any change. According to Andrew Scutro, Somali pirates have attacked even military ships. The translator cited by Scutro says that pirates are dumb enough to not distinguish between a military vessel and a freighter. A more frightening version would be, however, if they indeed know what they are attacking.

Ugandan AU Peacekeepers
Photo: Reuters


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Missile shield, down

Rumors, rumors, rumors... For the whole week there have been rumors around the American missile shield and Obama’s decision to withdraw it. Well, finally they got confirmation: the US backs off and won’t install the ground missile system in Poland and the Czech Republic.

Of course, Russia is cheering with this shift and right now a bunch of crazy Ivans are for sure getting drunk in a bunker under the Kremlin to celebrate it. Konstantin Kosachev, head of the Foreign Affairs Committee in the Duma (Russian Parliament), has said that “now we can talk about restoration of the strategic partnership between Russia and the United States”. Clearly, a huge step ahead. Na zdorovya!

But in Poland and the Czech Republic there are mixed emotions about it. On one hand there is the relief for not becoming the primary target in a nuclear war. Which is a big relief, I have to say. But there are concerns that the US and NATO are letting them down. They fear that Russia, encouraged by this partial withdraw, might want to re-enact his influence in the area.

To solve that, American, Polish and Czech diplomats are undergoing through negotiations for other solutions and kinds of collaboration. In fact, the missile shield idea is not completely thrown away but redefined into something more versatile, mobile and lighter, consistent of a ground radar and ten small mobile interceptor launchers. Obama is trying hard to tranquilize the ex-communist NATO allies. And to state clearly that no NATO member will be let alone, President Obama mentioned NATO's article 5 in his announcement -an attack on one will still be an attack on all.

The official statement says that the reason to cancel the deployment is that Iran is not the threat we thought it was going to be. However, the poor performance of the ground defense system might have had some role played in this decision too. So far, the sea-based twin of the program, the AEGIS system, has shown much better results and lacks of the inconvenient of fixing it into a foreign country. Not to mention the economic struggle and cuts everywhere in the American military, and specially, in the Air Force.

Whatever it is, Russia now has lost his American menace on their backyard (yay!). But this is a tricky bet for everyone. Also for the Russians -bad luck for the drunken crazy Ivans, back to the thinking. Sure, they might think now that the hard-line approach they had to the missile shield initiative worked and try to implement it into another problems.

But it’s true too that now the ball is on their court and they will have to move next. The US is seeking more support from Russia with the sanctions against Iran and North Korea, involvement in Afghanistan and further collaboration in disarment.

Of course; trades and millitary alliances with Cuba or Venezuela won't be so justified now. And both have had a huge boost in the last week. As for the first one, Russia's top military commander visited Cuba this Monday. Venezuela fireworks were way more spectacular: a big $2.2b deal which includes 92 T-72 main battle tanks; Smerch rocket artillery systems; and the Antey 2500 anti-ballistic missile system.

Time to move on for Medvedev and Putin.


Photo: Xinhua/Reuters Photo


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Israel against the world

Finally the UN has released his report on the alleged war crimes that Israel may have incurred during Operation Cast Lead. The report states that Israel, among other charges, “terrorized” the population of Gaza and reckons the role played by the Israeli blockade of the strip before the war to trigger Hamas into rocketing Israel. It also recognizes that Hamas rockets over civilian populated areas might be considered as well as war crimes.

However, the Jewish country criticized the report even before it came into the light and the fact of it blaming both sides -Hamas too- of war crimes in Gaza is not changing that. Quite the contrary, Israel is taking the 575 pages report as a declaration of war. From the UN? And after bombing UN compounds and killing UN workers in Lebanon and Gaza? Really?

Truth is that some indicators say Israeli diplomats can be scared. There is obviously the real danger of having more Doron Almog cases widespreading through the small and cyclic diplomatic-political field in Israel. Or even worse, having to face the ICC.

In Yedioth Aharanoth, commentator Eitan Haber warns that the image of Israel being built with these reports can isolate the Israelis in the international arena. More voices inside Israel want a critical insight on the country’s own armed forces and procedures.

But for now, the response has been the usual. The anti-Semitism trigger is easy to pull for Israeli politicians. Race card is already being played. In Israel Today, Dan Margalit called the report, prepared by a team led by the Jewish, South African jurist Richard Goldstone, classic anti-Semitism. In fact, Goldstone hand actually softened the report, which could have been way worse for Israel.

Once again, it’s the Jews against the world, standing alone. Amira Hass reckons that “like the Serbs of yore, we Israelis continue thinking it's the world that is wrong, and only we who are right”.

Ari Shavit, in Haaretz, even calls for Obama -and other NATO countries like Germany, Britain, France, Spain, the Netherlands, Belgium and Norway- being charged too for the civilian casualties in Afghanistan and Iraq. The tu quoque it’s clearly a way easier argument than being critic with oneself.

Indeed, Israel is moving on in an offensive to try to discredit the report from UN and the UN itself. But they are not the only ones. Just this week, it was known that Human Rights Watch’s senior military analyst Marc Garlasco, who reported the use of white phosphorus by Israel in Gaza, is a private collector of Nazi medals, gear and uniforms. Weather if Garlasco’s hobby is an unusual hobby, a fetish, or a sign of anti-Semitic, Israel prefers to stick with the last option and use it to discredit Garlasco’s work and, by extension, Human Rights Watch’s work.

However, Israel rejections of the report and allegations against Garlasco don’t change the facts. And most importantly, they make more complicated another attack from Israel to a foreign country -let's say... Iran- on the eyes of the world. Does Israel care about that? Well, that's another different question.

Photo: IDF


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Muddy waters

Afghan elections votes have been casted, have been counted and have given the victory to Mr. Hamid Karzai, the current president. But nobody still gives him the victory officially. Even with the allegations of fraud behind, Karzai has achieved only a 54.6 percent of the votes according to the first full results to be released. His opponent, Abdullah Abdullah won a 27.7 percent of the votes.

However, still nothing is already sold.

The EU independent observers monitoring the elections have made allegations on 1.5m votes. That’s as much as a quarter of all votes casted. Three in four of those -maybe- fraudulent votes, are for Mr. Karzai. If finally all or some of those votes are casted out, that could lead into a second round. Indeed, preparations for it are already underway.

Of course, Karzai’s team hasn’t received well this. They accuse the independent observers of interfering in Afghan matters and of being “partial, irresponsible and in contradiction with Afghanistan's constitution”. Not that it surprises me. For most of the process Afghan officials didn’t even try to hide corruption and fraud; it was highly unlikely to start seeing them acting like a democratic western politician.

But there is another important number in the final -for now- results: the turnout. 38.7 percent, which for western standards might seem low, but for what we saw on the election day it might be quite high. Almost utopical.

Meanwhile, controversy and debate continues in the home front, especially in Europe. In the eight years of war, the US and the UK have been the biggest contributors to losses in the battlefields but many other countries have lost soldiers too in Afghanistan. However, until now it was only due to occasional encounters with the Taliban or accidents. 2009 brought a shift into that.

The surge of the Taliban in areas before under control of the ISAF, the loss of key areas in the south, the stalled positions for the alliance for years and the civilian casualties all led into the erosion of the support for the “good war” -in contraposition to Iraq- both in Europe and America. As for the first ones, Gordon Brown, Angela Merkel, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero and Nicolas Sarkozy have pledged for a withdraw before 2012. Canada as well voted for that date in the Parliament. The Poles will do the same soon.

It is so, the same old song for the Americans. Like in Iraq, everyone starts to be tired of shooting an invisible foe. Generals are asking for more troops. Many Senators -mostly Republicans- back that option. Former Presidential candidate John McCain admits that more boots on the ground maybe won’t solve the problem, but definitely it cannot be solved without them.

Obama, however, is thinking in a switch for Afghan strategy. Those days from the beginning where he pledged for more troops to the please of the military are gone. In the mind of many Democrats -and maybe even Obama- flies the ghost of Vietnam. Public opinion is already eroding. As with the Southeastern Asian country, lose the home front and you’ll lose the war.

In order to change that, measures are taking place. Home opinion is much linked to abroad performance, and it’s linked to Afghan public opinion. To gain the Afghan’s hearths, tighter rules of engagements are on to tackle on the Taliban and more non-lethal gear is being deployed to minimize casualties among civilians.

But most dangerous than that is letting Afghanistan have on the Democrats the effect Iraq had on the Republicans. Afghanistan is already seen as the “Obama war”. If the identification prevails, he better win it or he will lose more than a war abroad.

PS. By the way, does anyone remember bin Laden?


Photo: ISAF
 
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Friendly fire 09/09/09

- Israel signs 455 new homes expanding settlements (and controversy) in the West Bank before the freezing...

-...while calling the Arabs “occupiers”.

- Iran offers a new nuke-deal over growing concern for their nuclear plans (meanwhile, NK enters the “final stage” of his program)

- Kidnapped British journo freed in Afghanistan. Local translator and British commando, dead. Debateover releasing information of kidnapped people, heating up.

- Report: Most Gazans killed in Cast Lead war were civilians. Nothing to worry: Israel gains support in Europe, even in the anti-semite Spain.


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The mystery of the "Arctic Sea" (Updated)

Piracy is often news in Somalia. Or in the Philippines. But rarely happens in the North Atlantic. Not to mention in Europe. That’s why the disappearing of the Arctic Sea, a Maltese freighter with Russian crew, went to the frontpage of newspapers all around the globe.

The official story tells us that the Arctic Sea was transporting a timber cargo worth a couple of million dollars. As the ship was full of crazy Ivans (aka Russians), Putin sent two submarines and several vessels after her. But, why seize a freighter in Europe loaded with wood when it was supposed to go through the Suez channel? And why send two nuclear subs after her to find it?

There had to be something more, and rumours are widespreading as you read this article. The biggest one right now says that the freighter was loaded with Russian anti-aircraft missiles for Iran or Syria. Maybe even the new S-300 model. Other rumours say that the Mossad was involved in the seizure.

Quickly enough Russian authorities have denied it. They are undergoing an investigation to clarify who was behind the incident. But a Russian journalist that suggested some guys to look at has already, according to his own testimony, been contacted to recommend him to leave Moscow.

It is, anyway, strange that a ship possibly loaded with even the anti-aircraft missile most wanted by America and most protected by the Russians went missing.

If in the end it is true that was full loaded with weapons for Iran, this is the second time the Persians see how a packet for them goes missing in less than a month.

UPDATE: Netanyahu's secret visit to Putin. Related to this?


Photo: STR/Reuters

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Brown's bad luck

Sometimes you have a bad day; you wish you hadn’t woken up at all that morning. Imagine that for a week. A month. Well, welcome to Gordon Brown’s hell.

Everything started when Abdel Basset Ali al-Megrahi, the Libyan intelligence officer convicted for the Lockerbie bombing, was released two weeks ago. It was not actually Brown’s decision. It was in fact a decision cooked and made in Scotland, Brown’s native country. But as Premier of the UK, he took the blame for it.

Megrahi was early released from his imprisonment sentence under compassionate grounds, after being diagnosed in the terminal phase of a cancer. Visible weak, the Libyan agent took a plane home on the 21st of August, just on time for the beginning of the Ramadan.

Back at home he was welcomed as a national hero. Libyan President’s son, Saif al-Islam el-Qaddafi, was even present at the airport to together with thousands of Libyans who were cheering him.

Immediately, the UK was widely criticized from the inside, the Lockerbie bombing relatives’ victims, and outside, the US. Behind the ghost of an oil deal between the Africans and the Europeans was flying the scene. The American Government stated that if that was what happened, there should be “shame on Britain” and Gordon Brown.

In the past two weeks, speculations surrounding the oil deal implicit in Lockerbie’s bomber’s release grew exponentially. A report from 2007 (when the release was first discussed) stated “British interests” were in between. Those interests have a name: British Petroleum and the rights to exploit several natural gas and oil fields in Libya.

Brown was firmly denying those involvements, however. Until this week, when his Justice Minister Jack Straw had to admit that oil may had have a big role in Megrahi’s release.

But Brown’s nightmare with Libya wasn’t still over.

On Monday, British Premier kinda backed IRA victims’ allegations to look for compensation from the Libyan Government for the arms deals between the African country and the Irish terrorists that contributed to several attacks. However, just a day after that, Brown managed to make a U turn by saying that IRA’s link to Libya wasn’t that strong. And subsequently, managed to get some angry Britons again against him.

Man, this guy really has had a bad week.





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Germany’s struggle in Afghanistan

After killing more than 100 people (many of them civilians) in an air strike last week, Germany’s Armed Forces are going under a huge turmoil, both internally and externally.

The attack ended up being the bloodiest action for the Bundeswerh since World War II and it’s drawing attention from all fronts inside an already sensibilized country. Prosecutors in Postdam are already investigating whether charges should be brought against the commander who ordered the attack in.

But probably the biggest damage (internally) has been done to the public opinion.

Germany’s people shares the views on Afghanistan with many European countries like Spain. Their citizens believe their troops are there doing nothing much but acting as a police force, as they did in the Balkans back in the late ‘90s. In that line Carme Chacon, Spain’s MoD, has referred to the Talibans as “criminals”, “drug dealers”, “organized bands”, “insurgency” or even “common suspects”... Anything but Talibans, insurgency or terrorists, what they really are. It’s not as radical as that in Germany, but lies lie on the same grounds.

However, holding up after that premise is hard after the aftermath of this attack. A hundred dead bodies are not easy to hide to the public opinion and the issue stinks. So the official line of the German troops acting as peacekeepers has been questioned once again this week. And Merkel (as Carme Chacon) is getting nervous and wants to get out of there as soon as possible.

Externally the reaction is being not the expected. There was a rift between the US and Germany around the attack. McChrystal directives state that air attacks can be used only as a last resource and only if the lifes of the soldiers are under threat. However, German soldiers aren’t known in Afghanistan for putting their lifes in the line.

Kinda the opposite, actually. Apparently, this time two tanker trucks were stolen by the Taliban and later on spotted by a guy in a small town. Sending a patrol to confirm it would have been way dangerous for the Germans so they decided instead to bomb it. After that, sending a patrol to see the results would have been (still) way dangerous for the Germans, so they decided instead to send an UAV -a few hours later. But by then, all the corpses had been removed...

So basically, after this chain of mistakes, McChrystal decided to punish the Germans with what they will miss most: their beer. So far, drinking bigger amounts of beer than anyone else is the only achievement Germany has gotten in Afghanistan.

That’s gonna hurt.


Bundswehr soldier in Kunduz province
Photo: Reuters

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Sarko secures the Brazilian job (now, for the Indian job)

Brazil announced on Monday the decision to purchase 36 Rafale for the F-X2 program. The operation also includes 12 Brazilian Embraer KC-390 tanker-transport planes to be exported to Paris, a lot of tech exchange between the two companies and joint ventures for the future. The plan can be worth $7 billion.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy acted as a chief negotiator for Dessault, a political pressure difficult to match by the other bidders of the contract (the Swedish Grippen and the American Super Hornet). As Robert Wall writes in Aviation Week’s Ares blog, “French president Nicolas Sarkozy has been aggressive -some may say shameless- in acting as the chief salesman for the country’s aerospace and defense industry”.

The latest visit to Brazil of Mr. Sarkozy was perfect to seal the deal. But political pressure hasn’t been the only player on the bid. A great part of it came from the tech transfer the French are happy to make, which American government isn’t. The Grippen has also American components that would be subject to the same restrictions. “What’s important for us is to have access to the technology to make this plane in Brazil,” said Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.

Deal is not closed yet and other bidders may still get a part of the cake. But for now, a few questions are on the air. Stephen Trimble from the DEW line draws them:

1. Will Dassault agree to open a final assembly line for the Rafale F3 in Brazil?
2. Will Embraer invite Dassault to join the supply chain for the KC-390?
3. Does this potential deal pave the way for Embraer and Dassault to collaborate on next-generation projects, such as a fifth-generation fighter and a 737/A320 replacement?
4. How will Brazil's decision to select the Rafale play in India, which is considering all of the same bidders for the far more lucrative MMRCA project?
5. Is Switzerland now Saab's best (only?) chance to win an export contract for the JAS 39 Gripen?

From all of them, no. 4 is probably the best questions of all. India's program MMRCA is looking for a 4th generation plane able to fit in the gap between their most advanced Su-30 and their light attack jets Texas LCA. A fighter to substitute the Mirage 2000 now in duty.

MiG has offered the MiG-29 OVT (aka MiG-35) but lacks the problem of availability, as the Russians are uncapable of delivering the planes before 2013-14. The Eurofighter Typhoon, the F-16 Block 60+, the already on use updated version of the Mirage 2000-5 and the F-35 are over the table too. But as with Brazil’s deal, Boeing’s Super Hornet, Swedish Grippen and Dessault’s Rafale are the best positioned. Again, the Grippen is behind for its uncapability of operating from carriers. But this time is a real deal.



Photo: Dessault

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Not like this

It seems like if the shit is about to hit the fan in Afghanistan. If it haven’t, yet. Problems, problems and more problems is the only thing on sight for the Western coalition and their Afghan allies.

Day after day allegations for fraud on the last presidential elections grow exponentially. Hamid Karzai needs right now only a 1.2% plus one vote more to be elected president without a second round. That’s however a false impression. According to the numbers of the Independent Electoral Commission, around 150,000 votes may be part of the fraud, so far. It’s an important amount, as much as a 4.3% of the total votes.

It doesn’t matter. As Monica Bernabe reports for El Mundo, the Independent Electoral Commission is taking them into account anyway. They are doing the same for the votes of many districts were the turnout was over 90% favourable to Karzai. According to the Electoral rules in Afghanistan, any result over the 90% favourable to an only candidate must be put on hold until investigated for fraud. Not this time.

It’s not the only allegations coming out. There are also many votes for nine previous candidates that dropped from the final lists, but whose names were in the ballots already printed. These votes are valid, however, but the Electoral Commission hasn’t got the same opinion. In the end, one less vote counted is also one less vote needed for Karzai to proclaim himself winner, as the absolute majority needed for it is achieved against the total number of votes. Less votes counted, less votes needed to be president.

However, a ridged election is not the worse of the problems for NATO. Gordon Brown and other Western figures have already praised the victory of democracy in Afghanistan (sic), but Afghanistan’s war won’t be won in the polls or the battlegrounds, but by winning people’s hearts.

As for that, it was a huge slap for NATO forces the mistake from last weekend in where dozens of civilians died when a coalition jet bombed a tanker truck surrounded by Afghans. Gen. McChrystal has been developing a tougher approach on close air support and harder rules for bombing missions, while focusing the attention in a softer handle of the situation and engaging in talks with the Taliban to support Obama’s strategy. He has even issued a handbook for commander on the ground with the new directives, including stopping driving as crazy guys in an Alabama highroad and encouraging the “human terrain” attitude.

All that, however, won’t be of any good if mistakes as the one from last weekend are to be repeated. The fireball from the tanker truck is a more vivid propaganda for the good of the Taliban than any sense of virtual security that Americans and their allies can provide. In fact, zones controlled before by American local allies are now boiling under Taliban control and their influence is spreading.

Even worse. The incident is starting to create cracks inside the Alliance. The attack was ordered in to protect some German soldiers, against McChrystal direct orders, and this is widening a rift between the US and Germany. A rift that the US has had since the beginning with all the participants in the NATO-led coalition but Britain, Canada and the Dutch. Apart from them, the presence of the rest is almost symbolical or they don't engage in combats.

With no protection nor real democracy to offer, the Western economic aid is their only argument. But if they want their aid to be of any use, better start getting rid of all that corruption. Right now, it's suspected an 85% of the money spent in Afghanistan end up directly or indirectly into Taliban hands. Not only the money, also the gear. No wonder why many in Afghanistan like a war state. It's much more profitable. And no wonder either back at the home front moral is as low as never before.




U.S. Soldiers conduct a key leader engagement at Shabow-Kheyl, Afghanistan on April 8, 2009.
Photo: UPI Photo/Christopher T. Sneed/U.S. Army

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Friendly fire 02/09/09

- Anyone knows which is the 5th busiest British airport? Here is the answer: Kandahar.

- Pakistan official survives assassination attempt. Afghanistan’s, not so lucky.

- Iraq finds his Air Force... in Serbia.

- How to win a forged election. And a great way to follow forged results in Google maps. Notice this: Karzai’s dominated regions are in the Taliban dominated regions. Coincidence?

- Ireland plans to create an Iraq likewise situation in the north... in 1969.



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Ahmadinejad joins Kim’s circus

Iranians might have learned the lesson from North Korea. No, we don't talk about the NK cargo ship loaded of weapons seized while heading into Iran. We talk about Kim's negotiation skills: mess with the West and then offer them a sweet.

For the past year, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s cabinet has been messing around with the USA and other Western nations about their nuclear program. The official line stated that it was merely for a civilian use. However, the secretism of the program itself, the banning for the IAEA inspectors and the constant improving of Natanz, Shiraz and Isfahan plants suggested something different.

This week, the UN published a report where they open clearly for the first time the door for the possibility of Iran working in a military nuclear program. It’s the same Israel has been saying for years, but when you are Israel and constantly are calling wolf, you might be unheard. The UN, that’s different: they never speak; if they do it, it might be something there.

The IAEA doesn’t state firmly that Iran is working in the weaponization of uranium. It contains a “maybe”, but it is a big “maybe”. That’s enough for Israel, though. The problem is the focus Israel gives to this problem: now links a solution to the settlements in the West Bank to the Iranian nuclear program, as it they have anything in common.

Netanyahu’s madness with this goes further. Bibi compared the Iranian bomb with Auschwitz. Great timing, just when half the world remembers the 60th anniversary of the beginning of WWII.

Obviously Europe is not in the same trail, but the most surprisingly event came from an unexpected actor: Germany. The Holocaust left a deep scar in Germany’s memory that has been trying to wipe out by supporting actively Israel. That’s why many were surprised when Merkel answered to Netanyahu to forget about Iran and freeze the settlements.

Back to the nukes, in Iran this report hasn’t been welcomed. Iranian representative to the IAEA, Ali Asghar Soltanieh, told the AP he found the report "very frustrating," and angrily suggested that U.S. intelligence was working to undermine Iran's credibility. Indeed, tougher sanctions against Iran have been discussed today.

But following North Korea’s steps, here is the sweet: Iran has opened the door for a new “nuclear proposal” and is ready for new nuclear talks.

And that’s how Ahmadinejad joins Kim’s circus.


Ahmadinejad visiting Natanz uranium enrichment facility
Photo: Iranian's President's office.

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Hamas grows up

Hamas has grown up. After last winter’s war in Gaza between Israel and Hamas, the latter is now the stronger ruler the strip has had in recent years. But with the ruling comes too responsibility and problems. Hamas is tasting now the flavor of power, for good and bad.

A bright example: Shalit. What before was an issue merely between two armed forces, the IDF and Hamas, has evolved into a national issue between Israel and Hamas government (although Israel doesn’t recognizes them as a legal government). Stakes are much higher now than what they were a year ago. A false step, backwards or forward, from any part will be considered as an official position from the other side for both sides.

Israel knows that. And of course, uses it on his favor. Demands from Israel over Shalit release have been growing up exponentially at the same time their concessions have been going down. Likewise, knowing the importance -especially symbolically- of the Jew soldier, Hamas doesn’t want to free him for nothing and their demands have been growing too as Israel toughened his position. That’s why conversations over Shalit are stalled right now.

But ruling over a population also carries the responsibility of accepting the inside critics. Recent movements from Hamas, aimed to impose a stricter religious moral in the daily life of Gazans, has firebacked in all the Palestinian territories, also -or most precisely, specially- in the West Bank.

Palestinians never were as radical as their South (Saudi Arabia) and Eastern (Syria) Muslim neighbors, but more like their West (Egypt) and North (Lebanon) brothers. The strict moral proposed by Hamas hasn’t been warm welcomed by them, not even in the more conservative Gaza. Cracks in the already divided Palestinian society have only worsened. And Hamas is taking the blame for it.

In fact, future doesn’t look brighter either. No-one is happy with Hamas’ ruling over Gaza. Some are unhappy because they consider it too much; some other because it consider it too few. According to Haaretz, Al Qaeda could be preparing an offensive against Hamas in Gaza to counter them and impose an even stricter Sharia law among the population. They already have had exchanges of fire and fights with them, similar to those they held against Fatah three years ago.

I bet right now more than one in Hamas is a nostalgic of times were they were in the opposition; just criticizing, no responsibilities...


Hamas police officers inspecting a car in Rafah checkpoint into Gaza
Photo: Xinhua

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