Facing Israel's policy

With the tour today starts Obama in the Middle East, the US will try to improve its image among Muslims. I wouldn’t go as far as to say that there is a shift in the American policy on this matter, but it’s clear that for the first time in a long time, the Arabs and Palestinians are taken into consideration by Washington. Obama’s Administration is taking seriously the peace in the Middle East, and that peace walks through a two-state solution.

Still, there is a lot to do, and yet Israel fills the top interests of Americans in the region. But that’s about to change. The shift was clear even before starting this tour. After Netanyahu’s meeting with Obama, Israel realized that things were about to change.

I don’t know if Obama’s strategy was exactly that, but truth is that Netanyahu went back home without a clear idea of what was really happening, like in shock. It is not that Israel has backed down -not even an inch-, but that they didn’t do any better.

Maybe it’s not the first time an American President tells an Israeli premier to stop the expansion of the settlements. But this time, he meant it. And just in case there was any doubt, Clinton backed Obama’s words and increases the demands with the stop to the “natural growth” of the settlements.

But this time, Americans were not only nosing into Palestinian affairs, but also with Iran. The only explanation for a calmed Netanyahu listening to Obama banning him from bombing Tehran is that he was in shock because of the surprisingly shift. Otherwise, an American President cannot calm down an Israeli Premier just by saying he has “a plan”. The Jewish leader also has a plan for the Persians, but obviously, that plan is much more difficult to maintain if the arguments you are using are biblical superstitions and religious figures like Amalek. Amalek is a much weaker threat than a nuke.

Poor Bibi. He probably went back home really shocked. Also the Jewish media was. It’s easy to understand; in the Holy Land they were used to see the Israeli President giving orders to the American, not the opposite. Maybe that’s why at least for now, Arabs in general have received warmingly Obama’s change.

And that’s also why the Israelis have taken a long time to react to this unexpected shift. But when they have done it, they have done in an old school way. Bulldozers are again queens of the hills in the West Bank, new settlements are planned, Palestinian cities remain in under siege and old settlers continue the “natural growth” of their artificial cities.

It doesn’t matter what Obama can say about it, giving back the land to the Palestinians looks like a chimera. And even if they do so, it’s unlikely the Israeli will let go the most precious treasure: water. Right now, the Arabs use only a fifth of the subterranean waters while the Israelis keep the rest.

But even inside Israel, Arabs face prosecution. Fortunately, the “loyalty law” wasn’t approved. But it could have meant the division of Israel citizens in two groups: the first class citizens and second class citizens. Something unthinkable in a democratic country.

Neither with Iran Israel is gonna lift the foot from the throttle. In fact, it seems they will do the opposite. This week all the country was involved in a missile attack war drill. It is the the biggest ever made in the country. The threat from Iranian missiles has already hit on Tel Aviv and Jerusalem streets and the fear runs -literally- freely through all the country. Even before the mullahs take the Photoshop again to launch some rockets. But who cares, fear is a perfect control measure to gain people’s hearths for the cause and justify a preventive attack.

Just in case, Obama has a timetable until the end of the year to make plans work with Iran. But that’s Obama’s timetable, not Israel’s (as the Haaretz suggested. That means that in the meantime, the US won’t approve an attack on the Persians.

That puts Israel in a difficult position. If they go ahead with their plans, Israeli jets will have to avoid American controlled air space (over Iraq and Kuwait) if they don’t want to hit a low-low in bi-party relationships. That narrows down to just one the options for an attack that we already mentioned here in Worldwide a few months ago.

Of course, the third old school reaction has come from the Israel lobby. They hope to have better results this time than what they had before Bibi’s meeting with Obama. Maybe then Israelí President won’t have to lose his cool again saying that "what the hell do they want from me?" again.

Of course, what America wants now is crystal clear. But Netanyahu and his Government partners don’t want to listen to it. They are used to listen just what they want to listen. But it shouldn’t be good for Israel mess with Obama. Careful, as maybe this American President is not the same puppet as his predecesors. If Obama succeed on that, his Administration will be already a great success.



















Photo: AP