Khamenei in the fire line

When Ayatollah Khamenei aligned himself with Ahmadinejad’s claims, he did much more than that. He put his own career in the line of fire. Now, after a week and a half of clashes with the police, riots, deaths and detentions, there is no comeback possible for him. He has to stick with the decision of not recounting the votes and not having another election process.

This has led into deception and disappointment among many Iranians. Combined with the extreme violence lived in the demonstrations, including shocking Neda Soltan’s death, the link between Iranian elites and their citizens seems to be endangered if not broken. Cracks are all around, even between the clergy. The unthinkable, defy the Supreme Leader’s word -almost as powerful as law- is a broken taboo today.

As I said in a previous post, what started as a solely political claim had evolved into something personal. The “Where is my vote?” slogan from the beginning has changed into “Death to the dictator”, personalizing the blame for all this in Khamenei himself. In fact, Ahmadinejad and the elections have been bypassed and people now charge against the head of the state.

Trust on the institutions is lost. Even if Khamenei survives this, his position has been weakened. Doubts about his suitability for the job surrounded him from the beginning and this test only contributed to add more wood to the fire of the debate. Many experts see a big mistake in Khamenei’s attitude, a fail to act as an equal father of the state, acting instead by taking part into the fight rather than calming down. That may lead in a greater debate, even over Khamenei himself: about Iran's need of a Supreme Leader 30 years after the Revolution.

Meanwhile the repression goes on in a nasty way. And it only worsens people’s response. In Tehran, outrage expands as new news are known. Ban the funerals and intimidate students in their apartments was just the beginning. Make them pay for the bullets that are killing their relatives is the last one.

It’s known that Basij members have threatened the families of those dead in the demonstrations. They are not allowed to show duel and many of them have disappeared, including Neda Soltan’s family. What the regime is trying to avoid is a public display of duel that can fuel a cycle which could lead into a new revolution, like in 1979.

1979’s revolution wasn’t made in just a few weeks. It took more than a year to come to the light, a year full of blood and detentions. New guys in charge look too blind to see that this is exactly what they are replicating: what led them into power 30 years ago.

In a Shiite society like the Iranian, where martyrdom acquires a relevant meaning, deaths like Neda’s will be still resounding loudly after the 40 days of duel, after the CNN, the BBC, the West and this blog will forget about Iran and the Iranians. And Neda won’t be the last one.

That’s why Ahmadinejad government tries to identify the demonstrators as traitors or spies. According to Islam, no Muslim is allowed to kill or order to kill another brother in faith. Downgrading detainees to foreign agents opens a door for repression.

Externally the Government continues to blame Europe (specially the UK) and the USA, arguing that the protesters are being financed by foreign secret services. Even if that may be true in some cases, it’s not enough to explain the massive response from Iranians. And it doesn’t account that Ahmadinejad has as well an unusual, weird and powerful supporter, Netanyahu’s Israel, which could be acting too in Iranian soil with the Mossad the same as Western services could be.

Until now the West tried to stay aside and leave it as an Iranian internal affair. The meaningless speech could be seen as an anti-Iran opinion, something that especially Obama wanted to avoid. Neda’s death changed that, Obama escalated the rhetoric of his words and Ahmadinejad hasn’t doubt to use again the anti-Iran card.

But the toughest battle is and will be at home. With a divided elite and breaks everywhere, the stakes are high. And the bet is on the table. Khamenei and Ahmadinejad share now the same fate -for good or bad- and the hour of the truth will come when everyone else from the West had already left. And for what we can see up to now, they are not prepared to face that.


All posts on the Iran Presidential Elections 2009 published in Worldwide, here.



Photo: AP