UK carriers under threat ~ DEFCON 3

Last April, Robert Gates, American Defense Secretary, announced an unprecedented project cutting in several programs being developed by the US military. The cuts reached even the Future Combat System (FCS) and the Airborne Laser (ABL), the favorites of top Generals in the Pentagon. Although some of those changes have been partially reverted and, or, are under fire in the Congress and the Senate, the main ones stand.

After America’s move, the current trend in Western defense spending goes too down the path through cuts. Adapt to new mobile, low tech, dirt and asymmetrical warfare. The UK is too (most of the time) on that way. Affected heavily by the recession, the Britons cancelled their own FCS system and the Trident submarines' program came under debate.

There was only a project solid enough to keep sailing: the future carriers. Two aircraft carriers, the HMS Queen Elizabeth and HMS Prince of Wales, were due to enter duty in 2014 and 2016. The need for those carriers was clear mainly for the ageing of the old carriers and for the new jets’ demands. They will become the biggest ever ships built in the UK.

But now the future for those carriers doesn’t seem so good. Yesterday we knew that there will be a delay of more than a year, which can occur into an unscheduled overbudget of £1bn.

According to the MoD, jobs are secured in the £4bn deal. That’s a relief for the 10,000 people in the shipyards in Appledore, in north Devon, Portsmouth, Barrow-in-Furness, Glasgow and Rosyth involved in the project for a total of several thousands of jobs. Also another £1bn deal on 62 Future Lynx choppers was secured at the end of last year, securing hundreds of jobs in Somerset.

But, according to Robert Peston from the BBC, in a memorandum from the MoD are discussed “possible measures to reduce costs, including the possibility of ‘substantial redundancies’ [...] It also says that the future of the Appledore shipyard would be under threat”. Those are terrible news.

If the worst fears of the Aircraft Carrier Alliance's board were realised and the project was scrapped, the knock-ons would be serious.

For example, some 80,000 tonnes of steel worth £65m has been ordered from Corus, the beleaguered Anglo-Dutch steelmaker.

And it could also put in jeopardy plans for BAE to acquire VT Group's stake in BVT, which employs over 7,000 and was created to be a near-monopoly in the construction of warships in the UK.

However, despite the 25% increasement of the budget in just one year (due mainly to the delays in the start of the construction of the ships) Peston looks positively to the prospect of the future carriers:

However official sources say there is little prospect of the project being dropped, because 40% of contracts relating to the carriers have already been placed and ministers are said to be impressed with the way it has been managed so far.

I assume they have discussed it with the new recession bump looking from behind the next corner and it agrees on that. As it was before.