UK carriers under threat

Last April, Robert Gates, American Defense Secretary, announced an unprecedented project cutting in several programs being developed by the US military. The cuts reached even the Future Combat System (FCS) and the Airborne Laser (ABL), the favorites of top Generals in the Pentagon. Although some of those changes have been partially reverted and, or, are under fire in the Congress and the Senate, the main ones stand.

After America’s move, the current trend in Western defense spending goes too down the path through cuts. Adapt to new mobile, low tech, dirt and asymmetrical warfare. The UK is too (most of the time) on that way. Affected heavily by the recession, the Britons cancelled their own FCS system and the Trident submarines' program came under debate.

There was only a project solid enough to keep sailing: the future carriers. Two aircraft carriers, the HMS Queen Elizabeth and HMS Prince of Wales, were due to enter duty in 2014 and 2016. The need for those carriers was clear mainly for the ageing of the old carriers and for the new jets’ demands. They will become the biggest ever ships built in the UK.

But now the future for those carriers doesn’t seem so good. Yesterday we knew that there will be a delay of more than a year, which can occur into an unscheduled overbudget of £1bn.

According to the MoD, jobs are secured in the £4bn deal. That’s a relief for the 10,000 people in the shipyards in Appledore, in north Devon, Portsmouth, Barrow-in-Furness, Glasgow and Rosyth involved in the project for a total of several thousands of jobs. Also another £1bn deal on 62 Future Lynx choppers was secured at the end of last year, securing hundreds of jobs in Somerset.

But, according to Robert Peston from the BBC, in a memorandum from the MoD are discussed “possible measures to reduce costs, including the possibility of ‘substantial redundancies’ [...] It also says that the future of the Appledore shipyard would be under threat”. Those are terrible news.

If the worst fears of the Aircraft Carrier Alliance's board were realised and the project was scrapped, the knock-ons would be serious.

For example, some 80,000 tonnes of steel worth £65m has been ordered from Corus, the beleaguered Anglo-Dutch steelmaker.

And it could also put in jeopardy plans for BAE to acquire VT Group's stake in BVT, which employs over 7,000 and was created to be a near-monopoly in the construction of warships in the UK.

However, despite the 25% increasement of the budget in just one year (due mainly to the delays in the start of the construction of the ships) Peston looks positively to the prospect of the future carriers:

However official sources say there is little prospect of the project being dropped, because 40% of contracts relating to the carriers have already been placed and ministers are said to be impressed with the way it has been managed so far.

I assume they have discussed it with the new recession bump looking from behind the next corner and it agrees on that. As it was before.



Photo: MoD. More views here.

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Green revolution pics

In the Big Picture have four galleries (1, 2, 3, 4) with images from the events going on in Iran. Here are some samples:








All posts on the Iran Presidential Elections 2009 published in Worldwide, here.


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Apologize? No, thanks

While half the world was mourning Michael Jackson’s death, two of the most solid politicians at the moment sent a message to Ahmadinejad: Go f**k yourself.

In a news conference in Washington, hosted by American president, Barack Obama, and his German counterpart, Angela Merkel, Mr. Obama rejected a call from Iranian president for an apology on his last statement about election’s aftermath in the Gulf country:

"I don't take Mr Ahmadinejad's statements seriously about apologies, particularly given the fact that the United States has gone out of its way not to interfere with the election process in Iran".

"I would suggest that Mr. Ahmadinejad think carefully about the obligations he owes to his own people [...] He might want to consider looking at the families of those who have been beaten or shot or detained”.

Obama also added that the events to come could affect the new talks ahead. Ms. Merkel went the extra mile supporting her host by saying:

"Iran cannot count on the world turning a blind eye".

This comes as a response from a claim from Iranian president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, saying that Mr. Obama was acting just like his predecessor, George W. Bush; pronounced during a victory party yesterday. A ceremony that ignored over a hundred MPs, including Ali Larijani, the Parliament’s speaker.

Meanwhile Iran continues the repression. The hard line calls for the “execution” of the protesters while the country reaches the top of the list jailing journalists.

But the biggest question now starts to be, where is Mousavi? The man who started all this remains isolated and unseen since last week's Thursday. With the violence escalating in Tehran streets and the absence of his leader, the opposition is thinking on going underground. The regime is succeeding in repressing the uproar but it may win the first battle to lose the war.

All posts on the Iran Presidential Elections 2009 published in Worldwide, here.




Photo. AFP

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Drone wars escalate

This week, the bloodiest drone attack took place in Pakistan. CNN reported at leas 55 casualties, while Al Jazeera upgraded it to 60 deaths. Reuters makes it up to 70, quotating Pakistan’s Intelligence services’ sources. The targets of the attack were attending a funeral.

Those numbers include three Taliban commanders, but the theorical top target, Baitullah Mehsud, the head of Pakistan’s Taliban, was missed. Associated Press says Mehsud left the village way before the missiles were fired.

However, as Nathan Hodge from Danger Room notes, the drone attack has attracted an unusual silence on Pakistani government. The drone wars have been in the center of a heated debate, both in Pakistan and the US, as a matter that could destabilize the central Asian country.

In fact, the new commander for Afghanistan forces, Gen. McChrystal, announced this week new rules of engagement for the deployment of drones and air supply, in order to avoid civilian casualties. It had became so easy to let the guys in the air get rid of the problems that the boots on the ground were starting to be too dependant on them. And quick triggers... of the radio.



Photo: US Army

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US keeps Manas; Medvedev, 'No problem'

A few months ago the USA was kicked off the Kyrgyz air base of Manas. The airdrome had become an important hub for American operations in Afghanistan and the expel order came under suspicion of behind the lines pressure from Russia.

Yesterday, however, the Kyrgyz Parliament backed the letting of Manas Air Base again to the Americans. What has changed?

First is the significative increasement in the rent. From the $17.4 million per year that the USA was paying until now it grows up to $60 million. But in the new deal are many more factors involved.

Manas Air base won’t be used as a military hub anymore. Rumors about the use of the base as a nest of spies to intercept communications in central Asia had widespread long before the expel order. It’s understandable for Russia not wanting foreign ears in their backyard. From now on, only non-military operations, refueling and respelling will be allowed in Kyrgyz soil. Manas will be just a transit base.

But also is important the under the line cooperation deal between the two Governments. Including $117m in upgrades to the airport, anti-narcotics, anti-terrorist training and equipment.

Kyrgyzstan has serious problems dealing with Islamic terrorist groups, like the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU). They operate in the Ferghana valley, a region shared by Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Concerns around it becoming a Taliban haven have arisen recently.

With the deal, the USA not only gets to keep an important supply hub in central Asia, but also adds another force into the fight against the Taliban.

And what about Russia? No problemo, says Medvedev. The Russian president even encouraged the countries in the area to join the USA in their fight against the Afghan insurgency. Of course, they won’t party over it, but it suits in the new soft line of friendly diplomacy and restarted relations pushed by Obama and Clinton.



Photo: U.S. Air Force photo/Staff Sgt. Lara Gale

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Khamenei in the fire line

When Ayatollah Khamenei aligned himself with Ahmadinejad’s claims, he did much more than that. He put his own career in the line of fire. Now, after a week and a half of clashes with the police, riots, deaths and detentions, there is no comeback possible for him. He has to stick with the decision of not recounting the votes and not having another election process.

This has led into deception and disappointment among many Iranians. Combined with the extreme violence lived in the demonstrations, including shocking Neda Soltan’s death, the link between Iranian elites and their citizens seems to be endangered if not broken. Cracks are all around, even between the clergy. The unthinkable, defy the Supreme Leader’s word -almost as powerful as law- is a broken taboo today.

As I said in a previous post, what started as a solely political claim had evolved into something personal. The “Where is my vote?” slogan from the beginning has changed into “Death to the dictator”, personalizing the blame for all this in Khamenei himself. In fact, Ahmadinejad and the elections have been bypassed and people now charge against the head of the state.

Trust on the institutions is lost. Even if Khamenei survives this, his position has been weakened. Doubts about his suitability for the job surrounded him from the beginning and this test only contributed to add more wood to the fire of the debate. Many experts see a big mistake in Khamenei’s attitude, a fail to act as an equal father of the state, acting instead by taking part into the fight rather than calming down. That may lead in a greater debate, even over Khamenei himself: about Iran's need of a Supreme Leader 30 years after the Revolution.

Meanwhile the repression goes on in a nasty way. And it only worsens people’s response. In Tehran, outrage expands as new news are known. Ban the funerals and intimidate students in their apartments was just the beginning. Make them pay for the bullets that are killing their relatives is the last one.

It’s known that Basij members have threatened the families of those dead in the demonstrations. They are not allowed to show duel and many of them have disappeared, including Neda Soltan’s family. What the regime is trying to avoid is a public display of duel that can fuel a cycle which could lead into a new revolution, like in 1979.

1979’s revolution wasn’t made in just a few weeks. It took more than a year to come to the light, a year full of blood and detentions. New guys in charge look too blind to see that this is exactly what they are replicating: what led them into power 30 years ago.

In a Shiite society like the Iranian, where martyrdom acquires a relevant meaning, deaths like Neda’s will be still resounding loudly after the 40 days of duel, after the CNN, the BBC, the West and this blog will forget about Iran and the Iranians. And Neda won’t be the last one.

That’s why Ahmadinejad government tries to identify the demonstrators as traitors or spies. According to Islam, no Muslim is allowed to kill or order to kill another brother in faith. Downgrading detainees to foreign agents opens a door for repression.

Externally the Government continues to blame Europe (specially the UK) and the USA, arguing that the protesters are being financed by foreign secret services. Even if that may be true in some cases, it’s not enough to explain the massive response from Iranians. And it doesn’t account that Ahmadinejad has as well an unusual, weird and powerful supporter, Netanyahu’s Israel, which could be acting too in Iranian soil with the Mossad the same as Western services could be.

Until now the West tried to stay aside and leave it as an Iranian internal affair. The meaningless speech could be seen as an anti-Iran opinion, something that especially Obama wanted to avoid. Neda’s death changed that, Obama escalated the rhetoric of his words and Ahmadinejad hasn’t doubt to use again the anti-Iran card.

But the toughest battle is and will be at home. With a divided elite and breaks everywhere, the stakes are high. And the bet is on the table. Khamenei and Ahmadinejad share now the same fate -for good or bad- and the hour of the truth will come when everyone else from the West had already left. And for what we can see up to now, they are not prepared to face that.


All posts on the Iran Presidential Elections 2009 published in Worldwide, here.



Photo: AP

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Friendly fire 24/06/09 (Iran edition)

- The conservative candidate Mohsen Rezaei withdraws his allegations of fraud in Iranian elections. The beginning of the end...

- or the end of the beginning?

- Bani Sadr, first president of Iran, in an interview (in Spanish): “The loudest shout in Tehran is ‘Down with Khamenei!'”

- Obama gets serious on his condemn of Tehran methods...

- ...while Iran repression arrives to the sports.

All posts on the Iran Presidential Elections 2009 in Worldwide, here.




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Talking about nothing

While people is still talking about Netanyahu’s speech -which although a bit better than their precedents couldn’t match Obama’s speech and said nothing new- he is already adding more wood to the fire. This time by saying that the debate about the settlements is a waste of time:

"I think that the more we spend time arguing about this, the more we waste time instead of moving towards peace".

I wonder then, if the Palestinians need to give up an army, a return to their pre-Nakba homes, a capital in at least part of Jerusalem, half of their elected representatives (Hamas politicians) even if Hamas leaves the weapons, and now, also, don’t even think about the dismantle of the settlements...

Then what is left to talk about?


PS. At least, after three years of imprisonment, Palestinian Parliament speaker was released today.

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Fireback in Iran

There are many ways to be unpopular among your citizens, but Iranian Government seems to be determined to accomplish it in all of those ways. Including the bad taste.

According to information appeared today in Haaretz newspapers -who quotes the Wall Street Journal-, Ahmadinejad Government charged slain man's family $3,000 for the bullets that killed him. That is just another one of the many measures going on in Tehran to intimidate the opposition. As if with clubs and bullets it wasn’t enough.

Different reports and tweets indicate that Iranian authorities are banning the families of the deaths from mourning their relatives. All mosques in Tehran have been prohibited from holding memorials or publicly mourning the deaths of the riot victims.

It won’t be so easy. Despite the attempt to provoke a media blackout by expelling foreign correspondents, Internet has become a useful tool for Iranian citizens to display their disregards. Maybe nobody will be able to attend Neda’s funeral, but the video footage of her death has travel the world and in yesterday’s demonstrations, her image was at the top of the protesters.

Three of the four candidates called for the annulation of the elections, but in the streets it’s becoming a more personal matter since the riot police started to tear gas them and shoot them down. Political issues still are underneath, but the recent deaths have given a different angle to the protests. Moussavi -and other candidates’- supporters not only claim for democracy, but also for justice and human rights now.

Neda’s death, a martyr as the candidate Kharoubi said of her, can mean a huge impact on Iran. In a country of Shiite faith, a faith founded on the idea of self-sacrifice for greater purposes, it could mean an angrier response from the people, as it is happening now. It wouldn’t be the first time. During 1979 Revolution, the death of protesters fueled a cycle of outrage that led into the Shah overthrow.

The official Government, however, doesn’t get the message and continues in the hard line. Khomeini, the Supreme Leader, warned last Friday about a bloodshed; the Basij militias warned with a bloody response if protests continue; the Assembly of Experts recognized irregularities but didn’t agree on a general recount or a new election process, so Ahmadinejad will be sworn as President in August.

Meanwhile, five European citizens were detained today suspected of being “spies”, as so called by the regime. Europe has actively supported since almost the beginning the claims of the protesters. On Monday they announced they will open the gates of their embassies to Iranian citizens to protect them in the clashes with riot police forces. The answer from Tehran was think about calling back their ambassador in London.



Photo: AP

All posts on the Iran Presidential Elections 2009 in Worldwide, here.

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Kim: Hey guys, I'm still here!

Kim Jong-Il doesn’t want us to forget about him with all the info going on now and frontpages for his commarade in the axis of evil, Iran. That’s why he warned us -again- with an all-out nuclear war.

I bet he regrets now the chocolates he sent to Ahmadinejad. That f**king bastard is stealing his protagonism... His hope rely on the fireworks he prepares for the 4th of July in Hawaii.

Oh, by the way. It's a fake. Not even those fireworks will make it to the US. It has been all a great chain of mistakes by the media.

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Iran new heroes: Neda, the voice of the streets

During last weekend demonstrations at least 10 people died in the clashes with the Government forces. The death toll is up to 19 in the week of protests. Plus 450 detained. But all those figures are unclear, as they are based only on the official Iranian press’ reports. Very little independent information is coming out of Iran, and although the official TV is opening themselves, they are still under the control of Ahmadinejad’s government.

Very little independent information is coming out from Iran. Foreign reporters are banned from going to the streets. The CNN, Newsweek, Al Arabiya and the BBC correspondents have already even been either detained or expelled from the country and their press authorizations revoked. Enemies for the press are not only inside Iran, however. In Bahrain, an important newspaper was closed down after publishing a critic article on Iranian elections.


But despite the censorship, Iranians still are being able to leak information to the outside world. Twitter has become a major point of information for both Iranians and outsiders and both inside and outside Iran. As noted in the NYT, it’s not the first time this happens. Other Internet sites like Facebook or Google have also started to actively help Iranian reformist with small but significant gestures, like adding the Farsi language versions of their websites.

Moussavi himself is actively using the Internet to spread the word. Always with a moderated language -and always, as the official line, invoking the name of Islam- but firmly, has uploaded several messages on his own personal website. For now, that website survives the Government censorship. For now.

YouTube has also arise as a great way to widespread the words of the opposition. In fact, a shocking video [WARNING: Contains extremely graphic violence] of Neda, a woman covered in blood after being shot to death in one of the demonstrations this weekend, and Neda herself have become the new motto for Mr. Moussavi’s supporters. Karoubi, a supporter of Mr. Moussavi who appeared besides him in the last demonstrations, has called to honor Neda in the following protests. She has become a martyr of the new revolution.

The Government reaction has been tough. Basij militias had a letter of marquee to act. That led into them breaking into reformist students’ apartments to intimidate or even beat them. The streets, however, and the reformist movement are not backing down. In fact, that’s giving them more reasons to face fiercely the police forces, as shown in this video.

Every inch gained to the anti-riot police, every recognition of their rights from a Government official, is a small victory for Moussavi’s supporters. But probably the biggest one up to now has been the resolution from the Council of Guardians revealed today, that admitted irregularities in 50 cities. According to the report, at least in those 50 cities more than a 100% voted in the elections. The London think tank group Chatham House, agrees with it.

The Government argues it is because some people voted in places where they are not registered, although they are living there. In the Yadz province, for example, in the city of Taft the participation was of 141%. Official argument claims it was because of the “great weather”. The opposition on the other hand maintains that those irregularities happened in at least 100 cities.




Photo: AP

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Iran new heroes: Rafsanjani, the insider voice

Stakes are getting higher in Tehran. Last weekend violence threatens to shake up the country into a real full scale revolution. The political discrepancies that had been going on underway the apparent unitary leadership for years had arisen.

The opposition has already more heroes and echoes of the movement don’t only return with Moussavi’s name. Two people from a very different background are the new names in the mouths of Tehran reformists: Rafsanjani and Neda.

Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani is a former president of the Iranian Islamic Republic, father of the revolution of 1979 and the head of two important organs of the Republic, the Assembly of Experts and the Expediency Council. The second one mediates between the Parliament and the Guardian Council; the first one appoints the Supreme Leader and is even capable of oversee him, although that’s an unlikely possibility.

All that, however, didn’t save his family of being prosecuted as many other Iranians are being today. His own daughter Faezeh and several more members of his close familiar circle were detained -and shortly after freed again- in the personification of the fear that many parents have in Tehran. They suffered the repression during the previous revolution and don’t want their children to suffer the same pain. Their children, however, are up to the challenge. That's exactly what Faezeh's brother said when they detained his sister: their own father was in jail for 5 years; they are "prepared" to take whatever it takes for their revolution. Even if it's jail.


Mr. Rafsanjani, however, hasn’t been seen on public since the elections’ results arose. He is supposedly negotiating secretly in Qom with the rest of the 86 members of the Assembly of Experts, gaining support to get the elections annulled. So far now, according to a report (not confirmed) Mr Rafsanjani could have won at least 40 Experts to his cause. If that’s true, it would be the clearest sign of the deep division inside the political elites in Iran.

Each day appears a new break in the Government wall. Last one was Ali Larijani, president of the Parliament. Mr. Larijani was one of the fastest to congratulate Mahmoud Ahmadinejad after the elections for his victory. However, in an interview in the official Iranian press, Mr. Larijani admitted that “a majority of Iranians doubts the officially announced election results” and “that their views should be respected”.

But still the supreme leader and the Government stand their grounds. Khamenei’s unusual speech of last Friday (he only gives speeches in the end of the Ramadan and the anniversary of 1979’s revolution) puts Mr. Moussavi in a position virtually inexistent until today in Iran: the opposition. He also warned the protesters that they will be responsible of the bloodshed that wourld come from more protests. From the Government, the response has been more violent. The Basij had a letter of marquee to use tear gas, clubs and bullets to repress by force the demonstrations. But that violence maybe could be a fireback for them.





Photo: AP

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Friendly fire 17/06/09 (Iran edition)

- A video of the Iranian riot police forces and a who is who in Iranian security forces.

- Is Ahmadinejad photoshopping the pics of his demonstrations to increase the number of supporters?

- The same ones that have been begging for bombing Iran and hanging Ahmadinejad now praise for his victory. Both in Israel and the USA.

- One of those things that simply don't add up in Iranian elections: "Turnouts exceeded 100% in 30 towns, website reports".

- Ahmadinejad's worst fear, revealed.

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Moussavi stands his ground

Moussavi won’t back down. Ahmadinejad can throw into him the gates of hell, in the shape of a police charge, but Moussavi and his supporters are standing their ground.

Today, protests were still going on in Tehran streets. But there was a new element in them. For the first time since the aftermath of the elections, the opposition leader, Moussavi, was inside one of those marches. He can end up in a prison, but it is that or losing the faith and the trust from all the young reformist voters that are backing him.

They needed it. They needed to know that Moussavi was, at least, behind them too. A letter sent last weekend to the people wasn’t enough. He had to show up. When he has done so, he was protected by tens of thousands of supporters.

After a week of clashes with the police forces, being hit and shot by them and dispersed with gas, finally a march has gone without -major- problems and police forces didn't do anything. Were they too many for a few officers or is it that the images of the police beaten the people is embarrassing them? Even local state controlled media is switching sides.

Too good to be true. In the end, rumors news point to shootings and at least, one dead by Basij, the pro-Government militia that kept Moussavi two days under house arrest.

Now it’s the turn for the high spheres of power. A popular showdown like this is difficult to ignore. Khamenei has already ordered to investigate the electoral fraud. There are some facts that simply don’t add up. Like Moussavi losing in his own town, in his own region. As Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace stated yesterday night on C-Span, it is “the equivalent of Barack Obama losing the African-American vote to John McCain in 2008. It just doesn’t add up.”

Meanwhile, Ahmadinejad is not alone celebrating his “victory”. Israel too is happy for the Persian neocon triumph. Something must be wrong when Ahmadinejad and Netanyahu cheer together. It just doesn’t add up.





Video: BBC

Keep up to date on Iran election's aftermath here.


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Jong-il strikes back

It seems like if Kim Jong-il North Korea was determined to appear on the frontpage of worldwide newspapers everyday. In the last two weeks, we have had news from Korea in three different fronts.

Probably the less worrying is the concerning to the leader succession. Continuous rumors about Jong-il’s health problems have leakened to the press for years, in a way similar to what happened to Castro. But still, very few is known about this issue.

Many sources identify Jong-il’s youngest son as the most plausible successor of his father. Kim Jong-un was, apparently, finally desinged as that after last nuclear tests. But even that is unclear even after a week.

Not much more is known about Jong-un himself. He is around 25 years old and educated in Switzerland. That and a photo of him when he was 11 years old is everything known about him. His older brother, however, is well known. But he doesn’t represent any threat. Not interested in politics, the older son of Jong-il prefers the casinos of Macau to his homeland.

Last week also were on the frontpages around the world the news about two American journalists arrested in the border with China and condemned to 12 years of forced works. Accused of espionage, they will be “re-educated” in a labor camp. But according with what is known about North Korean labor camps, it won’t be pleasant.

The bad taste joke that plays destiny with the US is that re-education methods used in these camps are the same used in Guantanamo (in fact, the ERE survival guides which are the basis for Guantanamo tortures were written after the experiences with the Koreans and Vietnamese) So, if Guantanamo’s methods are not torture, the US won’t be able to claim tortures on the two journos.

But clearly, the biggest issue has been the military escalade. It all started with North Korea’s missile. After the missile came a nuke test. And they may be more on the way, despite the warnings and sanctions from the UN.

The USA has already responded deploying troops and exercising with the South Koreans at the south of the DMZ. The DPRK gave back the ball chasing South Korean vessels and entering into SK national waters. This maritime tension continues growing up to today and there are worries about an attempt to launch a naval clash from the north. It is especially suspicious not the fact of North Korean vessels patrolling the area, but the ausence of movements from the Chinese fishing fleet.

Then Clinton warned Pyongyang with including it again in the list of terrorist states if they continue that way. Meanwhile, plans to face a possible ground invasion from the north of the 38 parallel were taking place.

Jong-il’s regime threatened then with a nuke total offensive and a “merciless attack”. But according to Gates, they wouldn’t be able to do so and the US may abort that attack immediately. Japan is on alert too and recently the American Senate opened the gate for the Raptor exports. Another reason for Jong-il to think twice before attacking.

However, the most plausible scenario is just a few more up toned words, maybe another nuclear test to provoke from Pyongyang and more sanctions from the UN. And then, back to every day’s game. Although some people in Washington are already theorizing about a postapocaliptic aftermath to the second Korea war, many more argue it will be highly improbable for that to happen. Thank God, because this was starting to be a bit worrying after Ahmadinejad’s victory.



Photo: DMZ / The Guardian - AP


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Ahmadinejad's time

Half of the world was pending on the results from Iranian elections during the last weekend. From those results will overcome half of the answer to the region’s stability during the next few years. The other half came from Israel a few months ago.

Three candidates, all of them moderated or reformists, faced the current president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. It wasn’t difficult to be more moderated than Ahmadinejad, in the end, he is the closest thing to a neocon in Iran.

The best positioned to challenge his position of power was Mir Hossein Mousavi. Mousavi is a moderated reformist. Painter, architect and former Prime Minister from 1981 to 1989, when the charge was abolished. He disappeared from the political scene until now. It was believed he will face Ahmadinejad supremacy in one of the most disputed polls in Iran in many years, but the end showed us something completely different.

It’s, however, not the victory of Ahmadinejad what surprises the West, it’s the dimension of it. The Iranian president won the reelection by a margin of 30 points. That’s at least suspicious coming from an election initially due to be decided in a second round. And of course, Moussavi’s supporters saw it as a corruption scandal and reacted violently.

The facts are there. There is enough raw material to suspect about a fraud. But the truth is that, even if it has been orchested from the Government, after the supreme leader, Khatami, announced Ahmadinejad’s victory, there is not much left to do. Opposition faces a dilemma. Either they don’t accept the results and are condemned to a brutal repression or they accept it and are condemned to lose the trust of the reformist people who trusted on them for this election. For now, they stand their ground, but it's unclear for how long they will.

Many of those reformists protesters are young students from Tehran, sons and daughters of the students that developed the revolution. A colleague who was working in Iran a few years ago told me that these parents are afraid of their children facing the same prosecution they suffered, even if they agree with them, and are overprotecting them.

Indeed, those fears aren’t unreal. Just after the election, the country started to move its weapons. Not literally, but in a manner resembling to China, Iran detained reformist politicians, banned text messages and access to some Internet sites as Facebook from its soil; so they ran into Twitter. Foreign media also was affected by this, as claimed by the BBC and others. Al Arabiya even was forced to cease reporting at all.

This is what Iran less needs right now. And I’m not only talking about the election but the president itself. The system applied to their citizens applies too to foreign countries. He doesn’t want to speak or let others speak, and that may doom Iran into international isolation. That’s a dangerous place to stay, a place where only another country of the region is now: Israel.

If Ahmadinejad is brave enough to face Obama’s challenge and embraces dialogue, that could leave Israel alone and without arguments in his war against everybody. They could isolate Israel internationally and hit him severely.

But with Ahmadinejad that won’t happen. That’s why Israel didn’t wanted Moussavi to win and is more than happy with Ahmadinejad. The policy of fear is more useful with wolfs than lambs, even if those lambs are wolfs inside. Ahmadinejad, however, is a pure wolf. And Israel didn’t miss a minute to continue calling wolf after the results were known.




More photos.
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The Jewish Borat

Ido Aharoni, chief of Brand Israel, a PR project that aims to clean Israel’s public image abroad, has accused the Arabs of damaging Israel the same way Sacha Baron Cohen did with Kazakhstan.

"The Arabs, our adversaries, have succeeded in doing to us what 'Borat' did for Kazakhstan", Ido Aharoni told the Knesset Defense and Security Committee on Tuesday, referring to the 2006 Sacha Baron Cohen film in which Cohen portrayed a Kazakh filmmaker touring the United States.

Letting aside the fact of Borat being in fact good for Kazakhstan -at least he made the world know about the country-, it seems a bit weird to see an Israeli accusing the Palestinians for Israel’s reputation internationally.

Why should that happen? What could be thrown into Israel’s face for that?

Is it because of the war crimes and disproportionate response in Gaza? Or because of the settlements? Is it the humanitarian siege to the Palestinians? Because of the block of access to water sources? Is it because Israel is the only country in the region with nukes? Because they spend the biggest amount per habitant in the Defense budget in the entire world? Or is it for attempting to create first and second class citizens inside its borders on a religious criteria?

In fact, all that has benefit the Palestinians. The more radical the Israeli president is, the better for them. They should be grateful.




PS. I always have defended a separation while judging a country between governments and common people. First ones are almost always pricks. Second ones, on the other hand, maybe are the opposite of their politicians, but don’t get enough time or exposure to show it.

PS2. And anyway, Israel deserves a special sympathy because of their women.

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Friendly fire 08/06/09

- Not only Europe goes to the polls. In Lebanon, a pro Western coalition wins the majority of the votes. Hezbollah however, still controls the streets.

- Bongo, Gabon’s president, dies in a clinic in Spain. After Castro resignation, he became the head of a state (not counting monarchs) that had been longer on power. Or maybe he still is?

- David Axe unveils why is not wise to guess about a war with China.

- Maybe I have to eat my words and McChrystal indeed means a real change for air support in Afghanistan.

- More than half of Kazakhstan uranium reserves (it’s the third biggest producer of uranium after Canada and Australia) have been stolen.



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Europe: abstention and punishment

Since last Thursday until tonight, all Europe –well, all the EU- has gone to the polls. They were electing the members of the European Parliament, and there has been a clear winner: abstention.

In absolute terms, center-right parties won the elections -although they lost seats. The Greens also outcome winning a few more seats almost everywhere. On the other side, the biggest losers of the night have been the left parties. It’s funny how the Europeans have voted for those who brought us into the financial crisis in the first place to take out from it. Then some will say that Americans were dumb and didn’t know how to vote when they did so with Bush Jr.

However, the big percentage of abstention (only a participation of 43%) left over many questions and makes impossible to extrapolate congruent conclusions. Martin Schulz, leader of the Socialist Party in Brussels, warned that if the pollings continue this way, the legitimacy of the European Parliament could be questioned. Pöttering, leader of the right parties, agrees with him but doesn’t think it could be so bad, as he explains that also in the US “nobody votes” for the Congress.

Truth is that even though they were European elections, nobody mentioned Europe anywhere. Each country was involved in an intestine fight, with their own targets. Global results were secondary, important issues were disputed locally.

That’s what happened in Sweden, for example. There, the P2P (peer to peer) file exchanges were in the eye of the political storm converted into hurricane. On one side, the Government and the opposition, together trying to ban the illegal downloads on the Internet. On the other side, the “Pirate” party, advocacying for free downloads. In the end, a huge triumph for the latter, with at least one seat in Brussels.


In Spain, legality was also the center of the political storm, but in a different way. There it was all about II-SP, the platform of the left independentists that the right-wing party PP tried to ban from the elections. The Popular Party sued the Basque party in court.

In the end, it didn’t matter, as the independentists didn’t get enough votes for a seat. But inside the Basque Country, II-SP and the PP gained a close amount of votes (only about 1,000 votes of difference), which can be a hard hit for the right wingers.

In the UK, Nick Griffith will become the first xenophobic, racist, far right-wing and anti-Europe euro parliamentary. Which is like choosing an atheist as bishop of Rome. Also the eurosceptics of the UKIP have gained support.

But the main interest was in Gordon Brown’s party, the Labourists. Everybody expected a fall, the question was around how big it would be. If only a big fall or a humiliating fall.

In the end, the fall was pretty big. In some demarcations, Labourism is now the sixth political force. In Scotland, where the Premier is from, according to the results form tonight, Gordon Brown wouldn’t even been elected as parliamentary.

In general, British votes have been a punishment to the Government and the political class. The two main parties fall in number of votes, but the Labourism, in power, falls further. The origin is the faith crisis around the country after the expenses scandal and the economic downturn.

In Ireland, also affected by the financial crisis and a Government crisis, Brown’s counterpart, Brian Cowen (pictured right) also has arisen badly hurt. His party, Fianna Fail, with a fall of 18 points, has harvested the worst results in their history since the 20s. That’s, almost since the creation of the Irish state.

On the other hand, Libertas’ eurosceptics (the ones to blame for the NO to Lisbon) have seen reduced their votes and won’t have any seats in Brussels. The Greens, Cowen’s partners in the Government, also are affected but less. A matter of numbers, anyway. If they didn’t have so much support before, they won’t lose so much after.

For now, the only issue clear is that Cowen is under pressure. The results of the European elections, plus the results of the local elections, draw a difficult landscape for Fianna Fail and it’s likely to see a new general election in Ireland before the end of the year.

But of course, in some places, nothing changes. I’m talking about Italy. There, it doesn’t matter how many underaged girls in topless or naked had been partying with the Premier; nor how many political scandals is he involved. Berlusconi’s support remains almost untouchable.

Photos: BBC, James Flynn

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Facing Israel's policy

With the tour today starts Obama in the Middle East, the US will try to improve its image among Muslims. I wouldn’t go as far as to say that there is a shift in the American policy on this matter, but it’s clear that for the first time in a long time, the Arabs and Palestinians are taken into consideration by Washington. Obama’s Administration is taking seriously the peace in the Middle East, and that peace walks through a two-state solution.

Still, there is a lot to do, and yet Israel fills the top interests of Americans in the region. But that’s about to change. The shift was clear even before starting this tour. After Netanyahu’s meeting with Obama, Israel realized that things were about to change.

I don’t know if Obama’s strategy was exactly that, but truth is that Netanyahu went back home without a clear idea of what was really happening, like in shock. It is not that Israel has backed down -not even an inch-, but that they didn’t do any better.

Maybe it’s not the first time an American President tells an Israeli premier to stop the expansion of the settlements. But this time, he meant it. And just in case there was any doubt, Clinton backed Obama’s words and increases the demands with the stop to the “natural growth” of the settlements.

But this time, Americans were not only nosing into Palestinian affairs, but also with Iran. The only explanation for a calmed Netanyahu listening to Obama banning him from bombing Tehran is that he was in shock because of the surprisingly shift. Otherwise, an American President cannot calm down an Israeli Premier just by saying he has “a plan”. The Jewish leader also has a plan for the Persians, but obviously, that plan is much more difficult to maintain if the arguments you are using are biblical superstitions and religious figures like Amalek. Amalek is a much weaker threat than a nuke.

Poor Bibi. He probably went back home really shocked. Also the Jewish media was. It’s easy to understand; in the Holy Land they were used to see the Israeli President giving orders to the American, not the opposite. Maybe that’s why at least for now, Arabs in general have received warmingly Obama’s change.

And that’s also why the Israelis have taken a long time to react to this unexpected shift. But when they have done it, they have done in an old school way. Bulldozers are again queens of the hills in the West Bank, new settlements are planned, Palestinian cities remain in under siege and old settlers continue the “natural growth” of their artificial cities.

It doesn’t matter what Obama can say about it, giving back the land to the Palestinians looks like a chimera. And even if they do so, it’s unlikely the Israeli will let go the most precious treasure: water. Right now, the Arabs use only a fifth of the subterranean waters while the Israelis keep the rest.

But even inside Israel, Arabs face prosecution. Fortunately, the “loyalty law” wasn’t approved. But it could have meant the division of Israel citizens in two groups: the first class citizens and second class citizens. Something unthinkable in a democratic country.

Neither with Iran Israel is gonna lift the foot from the throttle. In fact, it seems they will do the opposite. This week all the country was involved in a missile attack war drill. It is the the biggest ever made in the country. The threat from Iranian missiles has already hit on Tel Aviv and Jerusalem streets and the fear runs -literally- freely through all the country. Even before the mullahs take the Photoshop again to launch some rockets. But who cares, fear is a perfect control measure to gain people’s hearths for the cause and justify a preventive attack.

Just in case, Obama has a timetable until the end of the year to make plans work with Iran. But that’s Obama’s timetable, not Israel’s (as the Haaretz suggested. That means that in the meantime, the US won’t approve an attack on the Persians.

That puts Israel in a difficult position. If they go ahead with their plans, Israeli jets will have to avoid American controlled air space (over Iraq and Kuwait) if they don’t want to hit a low-low in bi-party relationships. That narrows down to just one the options for an attack that we already mentioned here in Worldwide a few months ago.

Of course, the third old school reaction has come from the Israel lobby. They hope to have better results this time than what they had before Bibi’s meeting with Obama. Maybe then Israelí President won’t have to lose his cool again saying that "what the hell do they want from me?" again.

Of course, what America wants now is crystal clear. But Netanyahu and his Government partners don’t want to listen to it. They are used to listen just what they want to listen. But it shouldn’t be good for Israel mess with Obama. Careful, as maybe this American President is not the same puppet as his predecesors. If Obama succeed on that, his Administration will be already a great success.



















Photo: AP

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Please, kill my colleagues (Journo's dixit)

OK, let’s face it. Some individuals are just idiots. Stupid people who can’t do anything to avoid it. They were born like that: idiots. Fanatism only emphasizes that quality, the stupidity. And if they have a pulpit to widespread their stupidity even more, they don’t hesitate using it, because they are stupids.

Last example of this is Ralph Peters. Neocon, ex-soldier and journalist for the New York Post and Fox News. In one of his latest works in The Journal of International Security Affairs, Peters suggests that the American Army should consider targeting the war correspondents if they don’t bend to the official guidelines. The emphasis is mine:

Although it seems unthinkable now, future wars may require censorship, news blackouts and, ultimately, military attacks on the partisan media. Perceiving themselves as superior beings, journalists have positioned themselves as protected-species combatants. But freedom of the press stops when its abuse kills our soldiers and strengthens our enemies.

It’s not the first time and it won’t be the last one right-wingers Americans ask for the elimination of those dangerous journos. They always have had violence up to hand, whatever it was to shot down photographers or unpleasant abortist doctors -although Tilles is not the only one. At the beginning of the year, Joe the Plumber, that guy who become famous by not being a plumber but campaigning for McCain-Palin, asked for a news blackout in Israel. But at least, he didn’t want to shot down his colleagues.

Anyway, it doesn’t seem to be necessary to shot down the journalists in war zones. David Axe, a war reporter on his own, back-arguments Peters smartly. But even without going so far, there is already something way more effective going on to censorship information and the journalists: make it impossible to them to live from journalism. If the media continues lowering reporters’ salaries, work conditions, safety and making them junk contracts, too few will follow the path. Too many tears, too few laughs.

If it wasn’t because journalism is a drug, many of us would have already given up. It’s much easier to live serving cocktails. The salary is crap, the hours kill you, you are most likely being exploited and you get to know a lot of drunken people and gorgeous women. Just like journalism, but at least behind a bar you don’t have to dodge bullets.



PS. Mr. Peters, there are better ways to climb up positions within your media company than killing your colleagues. In fact, I think right now many of your colleagues are (I’d say, all of us in journalism are) quite mad at you. But don’t worry; we are educated and civilized. We won’t suggest someone to send you to a war zone to be killed.

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