France in trouble

France knew it was stirring a hornets’ nest when it invaded Mali earlier this year. So did the USA and the EU. Yet they pushed through and eventually, together with several African nations’ troops, managed to achieve victory. François Hollande even went to Mali to get a photo-op on the trail of that moment.

But that photo and that victory are as close to reality as George W. Bush’s photo aboard a US carrier with the “Mission Accomplished” banner behind him. To be honest, the difference is that this time they know it. And they fear it.

Winning is easy. Keeping the spoils of war is much more difficult. Ask the Americans in Iraq. That is precisely what France is trying to avoid, getting into another Vietnam -yes, they have the same example in their history books too.

Even for the invasion, France had to stretch its forces. It needed the support of the USA and other European allies if only to fill auxiliary roles. Holding the ground, even just leading a coalition of African forces, is proving more challenging.

The land to patrol is vast -as demonstrated by the attack on the gas refinery in Algeria. The Islamists are also well armed; these are not Syrian rebels. They have powerful friends and some of them were armed by Gadaffi to fight against the same French and Americans they are fighting now just a few months ago.

Even the fighting is not over yet, as demonstrated by the recent deaths of African and French soldiers in combat missions. Not in ambushes, combat missions. And even a really weak al-Qaeda is being able to maintain a guerrilla war.

French convoy in Mali/Reuters

That is why France wants out. And they want it fast. Hollande’s Government is pushing the UN to create a rapid reaction 10,000-strong multinational force, heavy armed and under French leadership if needed. But under the UN flag and with bigger contributions from other nations.

However, those other nations are likely to be African or Asian. The US, the UK and other European countries pledged only support aid. Canada has already ruled out combat roles for its forces. A picture that sounds all too familiar.