The straw that breaks the camel’s back

Hosni Mubarak's lawyer said today that his client could be free in less than 48 hours. It would be the last straw, the final step for a planned return to the old regime in Egypt, one that the coup that was not a coup started.

Since the Egyptians ousted the Egyptian president, that revolution has only gotten more and more diluted. As it has happened in other places, as in Syria, groups as diverse as Islamists and liberals remained together long enough to carry out their common goal. That wasn’t going to last long.

Once decapitated the old regime, each of the groups looked after their own interests. In their search for power, both allied with the only option left for them, which was none other than the old regime itself or what was left of it: the military.

The pic that put Facebook in flames

First was Morsi, who cleaned the army starting with Tantawi and placed general al-Sisi in front. Sisi was more prone to change and even close to the Muslim Brotherhood in matters of religion. However, as happened to Allende in Chile in '73, the general that Morsi considered an ally was the one who ultimately betrayed him.

Then came the turn of the Liberals. In their desire to oust Mubarak from power, in the second round of the last elections they were met with a hard choice between the old regime remnant and the Muslim Brotherhood. Finally, fed up of the latter’s government, in July they sided with the other band, the army, to oust Morsi.

Since July 3 when the army carried out the coup that wasn’t a coup, the Liberals were at the forefront defending the generals. They believed they were on their side. In a way, it was true: both sides wanted to overthrow Morsi, but the agenda of the army goes further than just that. While liberals wanted elections, the army wanted a return to the old regime.

Hence the return to the cult of personality with Sisi, the use of thugs to suppress demonstrations or the veiled threats to international and regional press, all slightly reminiscent of the Mubarak era. The release of the former Egyptian President would be the last piece of the puzzle.

Meanwhile, the Muslim Brotherhood has taken to the streets and violence was assured. They will fight. The army has fought back Morsi’s supporters and over 800 Islamists are already dead at the time of writing this, and rising. Add to this the Islamist violence exerted primarily against Egyptian Christians, destroying churches and Coptic businesses. The army didn’t protect all those places as it should have done it, and it might have not been on purpose, but now the Coptic community is forced to side with the army.

The military has not hesitated to use the –sometimes armed- resistance of Morsi supporters as propaganda against them. For now they are branded as terrorists and it is perfectly conceivable that Sisi will end up using it to outlaw the whole party.

What does the world think about this? Well, Egypt is not what it used to be. It is not the influencer it once was among Arab countries. All the Gulf countries’ but Qatar support Sisi’s government. In the global arena, the EU has protested the violent repression of demonstrations. The United States has canceled joint military exercises with Egypt but maintains the military aid, which is to say that it has canceled the brunch but dinner still stands.

Curiously, the only other country in the area that receives massive amounts of U.S. military aid is also the only one who has supported the military coup in Egypt. Israel is not interested in a democratic country in the Nile delta, but a strong army to do what they are doing now: fight the Islamists in the Sinai and suffocate Hamas in Gaza.