The moment of truth for Ireland

Tomorrow is the big day for Ireland, as it’s been sold by the two partisan sides of the battle being fought for almost two years now. Tomorrow, Irish voters will go -for the second time in 16 months- to the polls to decide either if they approve or not a referendum to amend the constitution and therefore, allow their government to sign the Lisbon Treaty. Stakes are at their highest.

In June 2008, a first referendum was already placed and the answer then was a big “No”. A second vote was then placed to secure the approval of the text. This time, Taoiseach Brian Cowen has warned that there won’t be a third referendum if the voters decide again to reject the treaty. It’s then understandable why the battle for the “Yes” and the “No” has been cruel and fearless, especially during the summer and as the D day approached.

The main parties -Fianna Fail, Fine Gael, Labour and the Green Party- are campaigning for the “Yes”. But the situation in the Green Party is a clear mirror of what Irish society is going through. To approve a campaign for the “Yes” it was needed a two third majority vote, and in the assambly where they decided it they got exactly that. Not a vote under or over the two thirds, but exactly that. And that’s how tight the polls are expected to be too tomorrow.

In the “No” side are the Sinn Fein, the Socialist Party and the quite new Libertas Party. This one has been the biggest supporter for the “No” vote. Declan Ganley created the party ahead of the last European Elections as a Europhobic party, mirroring those already operating in Britain. Unfortunately for Mr. Ganley, the party he created failed to secure him a seat in Brussels and he left the party soon afterwards.

For most of the summer, Mr. Ganley has been quiet -too quiet, some may say. This wasn’t his decision. Mr. Ganley has strong ties with US businesses, and his American partners told him to please shut up. So he did it. Until last week when he couldn’t be quiet anymore and warned that Lisbon would be a “catastrophe” for Ireland. Of course, in all his interventions when talking against about Lisbon, he cared a lot to not upset his American partners. Like in this video, where he hides an American flag under the table before an interview with a German TV. All for the sake of the Americans.

In fact, all the American Chamber of Commerce is lobbying for the “Yes”. Last August, the firms in the IFSC (Dublin’s financial center) received an information pack supporting the “Yes” vote. Also, a poll from the Irish Times showed that 90% of the foreign businesses -mostly Americans- with presence in Ireland would encourage their workers to vote “Yes”. For them, a two-speed Europe, one under Lisbon rules and the other one out of them, would have a disadvantaged outcome for Ireland market.

That two-Europes fear is used too by the “Yes” campaign to inspire fear on the voters. There is a huge concern among the Irish establishment that if they fail to pass on Lisbon, Ireland will fall again under the umbrella of influence of the UK. Europe has been traditionally the place to look for Irish nationalists trying to escape the British influence. But if the Tories win in the UK in the next elections and the “No” vote prevails in Ireland, a new front might surge in Brussels that effectively will create two Europes: the mainland, at full gas; and the British Isles, at a slower rate.

But if it is about scaring, then the “No” side is the winner. Summer polls were showing a 54% of voters inclined to the “Yes”. That made many people in the “No” camps get very nervous, especially those in Coir. They are a lobby group, claiming to be independent, but with strong ties with several conservative associations. For instance, Coir operates from the same headquarters as the pro-life groups Youth Defence and the Pro-Life Alliance.

On August 29th, Coir started an aggressive poster campaign, followed by others like the Sinn Fein, supporting the “No” vote. The campaign is so aggressive that they have received huge criticism for the lies included in their posters. But despite that, their campaign seems to be working. Last week, support for the “Yes” vote was 8 points lower than during the summer, at a 46% and going further down.

However, part of it is to blame to the raise of taxes, the cuts and NAMA, the government plan to rescue Irish banks launched after the summer that the Greens have tried to delay until after Lisbon. As it happened in the first referendum, most of the “No” voters are not voting that because of European affairs, but as an internal issue; just to punish the Government -whose two members, the Green Party and Fianna Fail are campaigning for the “Yes”. It looks like the longer this campaign gets, the worse it will be for the “Yes” camp.

As for the final results, tomorrow we will know the outcome. Some Irish voters have already gone to the polls, like the seven inhabitants of Inishfree Island, off Donegal, and their neighbours in Arranmore, Gola, Inishbofin and Tory Islands. And for now, even before the voting starts, and to continue the tradition of Iran and Afghanistan, there are already problems of fraud with the voting cards.

Coir Lisbon posters over the M-50 in Dublin


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