The Israeli recklessness

Two Israeli attacks on Syria in less than 48 hours mean, at least unofficially, the entrance of the West in the Arab conflict. Israeli incursions have not only complicated a conflict already very convulsed. And as it happens with everything the Jewish state does, the consequences of these actions will resound beyond its borders.

The attacks came from outside Syrian airspace. According to both Reuters and AP, Israeli aircrafts entered Lebanon from the south and from within Lebanese territory, they released their weapons.

This fact highlights the impunity of Israel in the region. It's not the first time that Israel targets military objectives beyond its borders invading foreign airspace, nor the first time it does it with Syria. It is not even the first time that Syria is the target since the beginning of its bloody civil war.

Both Turkey and the Arab League have strongly condemned the attack. On the other hand, the vulnerability of Hezbollah and Syria has been highlighted. Again. Little or nothing can they do against the technological superiority of Israel.

Tel Aviv in the meantime neither confirms nor denies the news. All the information on the press was leaked through anonymous sources, faceless informants and unidentified spokespersons. The official stance is to deny the attack and to insist that there is no interest in entering the Syrian conflict.

That last part may be true. Assad, although an uncomfortable neighbor, is not a belligerent one. And without doubt, the government of Bashar al-Assad is better than some of the alternatives among the rebels, such as al-Nusra’s Islamists, who have been linked to al-Qaeda.

Photo: IAF

No one in Tel Aviv wants another Islamist government in the region after the experience with Egypt. In contrast, Syria's Assad is a controllable and controlled danger. The Syrian government has limited itself to be an intermediary between Iran and Hezbollah. And this is probably what has led to these attacks.

In fact, most analysts agree in stating that this attack is against Iran and Hezbollah and not against Syria. The targets of the bombs would have been, again according to anonymous sources, shipments of Iran-made Fateh-110 missiles to the Lebanese militia.

Israel's red lines in this case are different to those for Obama. The United States does not want to get involved in Syria and puts the limit in the use of chemical weapons, but deliberately does not specify how or how much is too much.

For Israel, the red line is the transfer of advanced military equipment to Hezbollah, and it does not mind getting into Syria as it has done for years. In Wired, Noah Shachtman speculates that the danger comes not from the type of missiles held by the Lebanese militia, but their numbers.

Currently Israel is able to defend themselves from the threats in possession of Hamas with the Iron Dome missile defense system. For the Fateh-110 Israel has another system, the Arrow-2, but unlike the Iron Dome, it has not been tested in combat.

This is aggravated by the fact that these systems are not foolproof and all they can achieve is minimizing the impacts. They will never be able to avoid them altogether, that’s something completely out of reach.

If Israel allows arming Hezbollah with substantial amounts of Fateh-110 (which can also carry chemical weapons), this further reduces interception rates. And it is enough for one of the missiles to impact in an Israeli city to destabilize the whole region.

That may be the main reason for Israel to get into the conflict. However, it is an extremely selfish reason and their actions have consequences for more people than those in the Jewish state.

To begin with, the Assad regime has now the perfect excuse to demonize the rebels. According to a spokesman of the regime, the rebels are "friends of Israel" and the attack was made in a coordinated manner.

The UN has helped to this extent, albeit involuntarily, by saying through Carla del Ponte that chemicals attacks recently detected in Syria may actually have been the work of rebel militias. They later announced in a separate statement that there are no definitive conclusions yet.

Beyond Syria’s and Israel’s borders, these attacks push the West into a war that it doesn’t want. According to Robert Fisk, if there is no condemnation of the bombing means the de facto U.S. and European support for Israel's actions.

Obviously Washington is not going to condemn the attacks. In fact Obama has already said that Israel has the right to defend itself, without specifying further. Surely his government is upset that Netanyahu did not inform in advance of the incursions, but that will not change its official position.

The Israeli attack has also polarized the Arab public. Except for Jordan, no other country in the area wants Europe and America to send aid in the form of weapons and military equipment to the rebels. Let alone to have a Western military intervention in Syria.

On the other side of the world, the recent visit of Israeli Prime Minister to China has been the perfect excuse for the Asian giant to begin the rehearsal of his role as a global superpower. Meanwhile, the two former superpowers -the United States and Russia- continue to disagree in almost everything.