Report: Situation in Lebanon getting worse

Hezbollah could be rearming for a future conflict with Israel, according to The Observer and Haaretz. The news came in just after Israel seized a cargo ship loaded with rockets and missiles, supposedly for the Shiite Lebanese militia.

“Of course we are rearming”, said in condition of anonymity a Hezbollah official to the Londoner newspaper. “We have more rockets and missiles than [we had] in 2006”, he adds. According to this same source, the Lebanese guerrilla would be expecting an attack from the south soon, if not this winter in the spring, when the ground would be hard enough to maintain the weight of the Israeli tanks. And facts are that indeed, the IDF has been moving around and concentrating forces in the north of the country.

But for now, the main target for Israel is still Iran. However, that doesn’t take Lebanon out of the table. Some analyst, suggest that it even make it more likely to be attacked. Initial intelligence reports pointed out that any successful operation in Iran should be started with an attack on Hezbollah, to diminish their ability to disrupt normal life in Israel northern territories. Now with the Shiite militiamen in the concentration government, that threat is seen in Israel as even greater.

Last war in Lebanon was in 2006, when Hezbollah fighters infiltrated in Israel and kidnapped two Jewish soldiers and the IDF counterattacked heavily. After that, the FINUL, an interim international force, was deployed in the area. But the FINUL has been recently eroded from the inside, with arguments between their members about the leadership of the mission. Spain wants to get the lead in 2010 -as agreed- but Italy, currently in charge of the mission, doesn’t seem to be keen to do so after Israel asked them to keep it.

If anything new starts, the FINUL could be between two fires and without a clear leadership in the spring. Perfect time for an attack or a provocation from any of the parts involved.

More in here.




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