A second golden age for contractors

Three name changes, dozens of legal problems, two major disputes with the governments of Iraq and the United States and the resignation of its founder, would mean a disaster for any company. Not for Academi.

The company previously known as Xe and Blackwater -now bearing the “boring name” of Academi- has a bright future ahead. Or at least that is what one would think reading the report from an independent commission on the attack to the US embassy staff in Benghazi.

Both the independent commission and a Senate hearing have stated that the main problem was that the guards were foreign and unreliable. And both recommended either increase considerably the State Department personnel or hire external guards to take care of US diplomatic security abroad.

Considering the current austerity wave around the world, the first option is unlikely. That leaves the contractor option as the only one. Which in turn it means Blackwater -and other contractors. 

Blackwater guards

And it is a big cake to share: anything between $2.2 billion and $1.3 billion, depending on who you listen to -either the commission or Clinton talking to the Senate.

But that is not the only market for armed guards. Despite a widespread call against the NRA’s suggestion of putting armed guards in schools to prevent mass shootings, some Councils are already discussing the option. 

If passed, most towns don’t have the resources to pull police officers to patrol schools and it would mean another source of income for contractors. Even if it is only a matter of training guards and teachers, Blackwater may be in a good position to take advantage of it.

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The gun country

After the last mass shooting in Newtown the debate about gun control has jumped to the frontpages again. And again, the people who never want to talk about it are saying that it is insensitive to talk now. “Too soon” they say.

The problem is that the shootings are pilling up. And just when the mourning period for the one in Portland was about to expire -and according to the NRA timeframes, it was ok to talk about it- Newtown came in.

As many people have pointed out, it is not that it is too soon to talk about it. In fact, it is too late. That should have been discussed before. One would think that after a Congresswoman was attacked, politicians -and the people- would have taken the matter more seriously. Nope.

Probably many people against gun control are afraid of the government taking the guns from their hands. But they need to understand, gun control doesn’t mean no guns, just a tighter and more controlled access to them and their use. And there are plenty of reasons to apply gun control.

A very common argument is that other factors like a deficient mental healthcare is to blame for mass shootings. Interestingly, many of the people who oppose gun control are closer to Republicans than to Democrats -not all- and they opposed as well Obamacare. Imagine what they would have to say about taxpayers’ money going into universal mental healthcare. Or into public schools so teachers and staff are more prepared to identify possible psychopaths.

It is not the only contradiction for Republicans. They resist the government control over gun ownership yet they insist in controlling communications, women’s bodies, gay marriages or immigrants. Selective freedom, it seems.

It is also interesting to note that while one isolated shoe bomber made widespread airport controls the norm, no matter how many mass shootings there are to convince people of the need for a debate on the issue.

Foreign examples of Switzerland and Israel are often cited as countries with lax gun control but both recently tightened the access to firearms. Australia long ago applied gun control and numbers talk for themselves. Japan's number of deaths are down to almost zero. 

The only other example of a country with permissive laws on the matter is Finland, who is the second -after the US- on mass shootings by civilians.

It is understandable the need for a militia -and therefore, the Second Amendment- in the post-independence America, but now it is just an anachronism. In my European mind it is impossible to conceive how citizens of the country with the biggest and most advanced army in the world feel so unsafe to be compelled to buy guns to defend themselves. Let alone, the need for semi-automatic weapons. 

Furthermore, if no one but the ones who must maintain the law and order were allowed to carry guns, there wouldn’t be a need to carry a gun for self-defense.

“That wouldn’t stop someone who wants to harm of doing it” say as another excuse pro-guns lobbies. Well, I have to agree with that one. Nothing, not even the tightest laws, will stop a determined enough lunatic. But at least the damage, the chances for it to happen or the frequency of the attacks wouldn’t be so great.

Take a firearm away from a psycho and they will find another way to do harm. But probably it will be a less harmful one, like a knife. Or a frying pan. Just on the day of the massacre a guy with a knife assaulted a school in China, stabbing 22 children. All survived.

So, how many more shootings until someone acts? Well, just today there was another one in Colorado with four people dead. And in the meantime, sales of firearms soared like previous times with the media not precisely playing a shoothing effect.

It's too soon after Lincoln's assassination to be talking about gun control.
— Top Conservative Cat (@TeaPartyCat) December 15, 2012

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This time yes

On Wednesday North Korea launched successfully -finally- a satellite into space becoming the 11^th nation to achieve it. The date could not be easier to remember (12.12.12) and it is indeed a huge step forward for the Kim regime. 

Several details of the launch tell how the North Koreans have advanced. They finally got the third stage to separate successfully, which had been the major problem for the previous rockets -at least for the ones that survived more than a minute on the air.

They also managed to predict accurately where the boosters and debris of the rocket would fall -confirming the Philippines’ fears. This is more important than what it may suggest at first sight. For starters, that gives more control of the trajectory and destination for long-range rockets and for, namely say, a hypotetic successful future ICBM.

Photo: Kyodo News

But probably the biggest achievement was fooling half of the world -I have to include myself here- with their “delay due to snow” distraction. We knew it would eventually happen, but didn’t expect it that soon. If it was a trick to get the attention of the world, well, it worked.

All the eyes were on them. But when it finally happened only the region neighbors were kinda fast. Whiting minutes, Japan and South Korea had strongly condemned the action and were having a coordinated diplomatic effort.

That doesn’t mean they were expecting it either. The South Koreans said they never believed the delay and were confirming the reports. The Japanese, on the other hand, said they had their missile frigates locked on the rocket since it took off but didn’t press the fire button. Sounds like an excuse to me.

Europe and America were even slower to react. In the case of Europe, only the UK summoned immediately their ambassador. Fair enough, it was night time for them when the launch took place.

For the US, the embarrassment was even worse. It wasn’t until two hours after the rocket was launched that the Americans released a statement saying they had “noted” the launch. Like if it was a disturbance in the Force.

Images from the official DPRK channel confirming the launch -with special TV programs- and statements from the Japanese and South Korean governments were all over Twitter and Facebook. But the Americans had just “noted” it.

Photo: KCNA

Still, it is not like the Americans should be immediately worried. The DPRK may have put an object in space but it is unclear if that object is an operational sat. Also, although space rockets and ICBM share common tech, the later need twice as much work to develop.

To hit the space you just need for the rocket to go upwards. To hit a place half-way through the planet you need a thermal shield for the reentry and accurate trajectory calculations. It will take several years for the DPRK to build a successful ICBM.

Of course, UN sanctions will not help that development and most likely will follow after this attempt. Even China and Russia have criticized the bold move of the North Koreans.

However, no one has said anything on the UN about the mysterious American X-37B, launched intospace one day before the North Korean satellite. It is a USAF space-drone that the US says is purely experimental, while at the same time declining to disclose what those experiments are.

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Calling wolf (again)

Last week we woke up to the unsettling news of Al Assad cooking sarin-filled ammunitions. It is not that we didn’t know that Syria has chemical weapons. We knew it. But some intelligence reports suggest now that the regime of Assad may be loading them on the delivery recipients.

Immediately, the US stated that using chemical weapons would be a “red line” that if crossed would carry “consequences”. It is easy to imagine those consequences in the form of a Libya-style intervention.

If the reports are true it would show significant weakness for the Assad regime. That shouldn’t come as a surprise. The rebels are closing the gap with Damascus' airport and fighting for its control, with flights having to be cancelled for hours at some points in the past few weeks. For now, the airport is open but the road to the city is a battlezone.

The recent blackout of the Internet seemed also like a desperate measure by the Syrian government to cut the leaking of videos and information from within Syria. Mixing the sarin and loading them onto the delivery recipients would be the prelude of another desperate measure. Because if done, it all becomes way more complicated.

Photo: TRDefence

While separate on their active ingredients, it is somewhat stable and relatively easy to store. But once mixed, and considering the decades-old technology employed by Syria, it must be used immediately or there would be risks of leaks and deterioration.

It is also more difficult to store, due to the sarin being extremely corrosive. Add to that the degradation of the quality of the gas. In fact, to avoid all these problems, Iraqi soldiers -who used the same tech when attacking the Kurds in the 80’s- mixed the gas on the spot just before firing the ammunitions or loading them onto the bombs.

However, some people see on these reports more of a remake of the Iraq invasion than a real threat. Calling wolf on weapons of mass destruction to fuel their own interest -whatever they could be. And it is not only the Russians, who have a clear conflict of interest with Syria, but also activists among the rebel ranks.

Those rebels, or at least some of them, are what several analysts have said we should be worried about. They are talking of a proper nightmare scenario. If the Assad government fails, all those chemical weapons that do really exist could end up in the hands of the rebel groups, some of them linked to al-Qaeda. And those rebels have already stated that they want those weapons, while their methods aren’t always that different from what they say to be fighting.

This isn’t a new problem. The US came up with a solution to a similar problem in Pakistan, setting a back-up plan in case the government failed to secure the nuclear stockpile of the country. However, Syria is not Pakistan. There are no dollars to put into Assad’s account to shield the sites storing the weapons -for now, Assad just keeps moving them around- and it is unlikely Russia would see with good eyes an intervention on Syrian soil by American soldiers -that was the plan B in Pakistan. 

Instead, the Americans are hoping to train Syrian rebels to secure and handle those weapons. But that plan can only work if those rebels arrive before al-Qaeda linked groups to the sites and if Assad’s government cooperates to some degree. Two very big if’s in a very volatile environment.

Either that or call the Israelis in.

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"Gangnam style" rockets

The odds are against them. So far, the atmosphere has beaten North Korea rocket launch attempts by 4-0 since 1998. Yet, here they come again with another satellite launch -allowing snow clears up. Persistent they are.

It will be conveniently timed to commemorate the passing away of late Kim Jong-il and to interrupt the southern neighbors’ election. This time, however, the Pentagon is saying that Kim Jong-un could at least improve where his father failed.

That wouldn’t be that difficult. All of the previous attempts by North Korea of putting a satellite in orbit have failed miserably. That’s it, at least, according to the United States. If you want to believe the DPRK official statements, all four previous launches have been a success or received with silence.

That is what happened in 1998 when a rocket dove in the Sea of Japan (a success according to DPRK sources) or 2006 when it blew up soon after takeoff (silence). Kim Jong-il’s last attempt at it in 2009 must be now broadcasting Korean anthems from a deep oceanic orbit, (although the North Koreans insist the satellite is up there in the sky, no one else in the world could see or hear anything). And his son’s baptism of fire ended in failure soon after launch.

One would think that over time the North Koreans would improve on their attempts, but that doesn’t seem to be the case. In fact, Brian Weeden, a former officer with the U.S. Air Force Space Command told Wired’s blog Danger Room that they seem to be getting worse, “going backwards as they keep making changes without truly understanding what went wrong in each case”.

Part of the problem is that the DPRK doesn’t test their rockets. They just announce launches and publicize them as a propaganda weapon. If they were testing the rockets before they actually did it for good, failures could be identified and the tech could be fine-tuned. But also that would likely mean more sanctions.

Photo: Pedro Ugarte/AFP

Whatever the outcome this time, the US has mobilized two or three missile frigates to monitor the launch -and they probably will learn more than the North Koreans from it. If the US is so worried about it is because the tech used to put payloads in orbit is basically the same that is used in Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBM), which would be capable of hitting continental America.

Meanwhile, many other countries are watching the launch. Japan and Korea are worried for the improvement of the DPRK military capabilities. China because it might be an obstacle for peace. And others are worried for a much more real possibility: Philippines and Australia are afraid the launch will fail again and debris will fall over them.

Another country that will be following closely this rocket is Iran. The two countries signed an agreement earlier in 2012 to collaborate in science and technology and Iranian staff has been stationed at North Korean sites for weeks. Both nations share a common interest in the pursue of space and nuclear technology.

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Israel's open hand to the Palestinians

Photo: Baz Ratner/Reuters

Netanyahu promised consequences if the UN voted in favor of the Palestinian statehood bid. That would have been an optimistic view. In a conflict fuelled by retaliations -who shot first?- there was to expect some sort of payback.

However, Western democracies probably didn’t expect this degree of bitterness. It is a diplomatic Cast Lead operation against the Palestinian Authority and the West Bank.

The Palestinians felt the hand that the Israelis tend in peace to them, as the Israeli ambassador to the UN said last week in New York. Only that it was more of a fist than an open hand. Immediately after the UN vote, Israel announced that it would confiscate the tax revenues it collects on behalf of the PA.

We are not talking about some spare change; it is $120m that pay mostly Palestinian civil servants’ salaries. That money will go to pay a debt of around $200m that the PA had with the Israeli electrical company, who provides energy needs for the West Bank.

An Israeli official told the Guardian the move came now in response to the UN bid and it could be repeated next month. "A lot depends on what the Palestinians do or don't do," he said.

But that is not all of it. Israel announced as well the construction of 3000 new homes in the West Bank, including in East Jerusalem. The plan projects the building of a new corridor of homes in the E-1 sector, connecting north-east and south-east Jerusalem.

This is a red line even for Washington and Tel Aviv. There is no way back from there. It erases any possible two-state solution. It effectively surrounds and disconnects East Jerusalem from any possible Palestinian state.

This decision infuriated the American and European governments, who criticized harshly the move. Some even recalled their ambassadors, like in the case of France, Britain, Spain, Denmark and Sweden.

Despite this, Netanyahu is focused on keeping on track with this plan. Not only that, but he has also defrosted a plan to build an extra 1700 homes in Ramat Shlomo, beyond the Green Line, that was suspended in 2010. Additionally, Israel has renewed patrols to identify and demolish Arab houses illegally built in East Jerusalem.

Israel has gotten used to play hard and being isolated internationally. It is not the first time the US criticizes an Israeli decision. Neither is it the first time European countries recall ambassadors.

But somehow, Netanyahu has been always able to pull some advantage out of it. It is part of Netanyahu's twisted idea of a negotiation. Back in 2010, Obama offered him 20 fifth generation F-35 jets in exchange for a 90-day moratorium on the construction of new homes. If this happens again, it wouldn’t be the first time someone sees bribing or blackmailing on it.

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What after Palestine-194?

Jehad’s birthday is on the 30^th of November. As a Palestinian living in the UK, the news of Palestine being recognized as a state arrived from America just on time to celebrate his birthday. At that moment, the UN was voting in favor of granting Palestine recognition as a non-member state and a seat as an observer state at the UN.

His fellow nationals back across the West Bank and Gaza were as well celebrating. It is indeed a huge step forward for the Palestinians towards a two state solution and an upgrade to their situation, at least internationally.

Photo: AP/Seth Wenig

Upgrades, however, are as good as the originals they are based on and this one is not an exception. If the base is not good enough, the upgrade probably will fall on the short side. The change of status may be a small victory but the real repercussions are few and not all of them satisfactory for the Palestinians.

When Palestinians sobered up from the UN vote, Israeli settlers were still building, the checkpoints were still there, the wall was still present and the blockade in Gaza was still in effect. Even back at the UN, the Palestinians’ seat will remain at the same place where it has been since 1974, besides the Holy See’s.

The benefits are widely diplomatic more than on-the-ground results and they will take time to become real. For starters, this would give the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) more weight in their negotiations with Israel.

The most talked about benefit is the possibility for the PLO to apply for access to the InternationalCriminal Court (ICC) and prosecute Israeli citizens. However, even this move could turn into a double edged sword because it would allow as well Israel to prosecute Hamas militants after a rocket attack kills Israeli civilians.

Furthermore, the Palestinians don’t need to use the ICC. Several processes open in European countries -specially in the UK and Spain- have proven effective bringing Israeli leaders to a courtroom or, at least, limiting their travel freedom.

Photo: Anna Day/Instagram 

The one effect this UN bid has gotten is clearly propagandistic. Fatah is the biggest winner and they needed it. Hamas was growing in popularity not only in Gaza but also in the West Bank and this gives the PLO some air to breathe. As journalist Mikel Ayestarán commented from Ramallah, in the celebrations on the street you could see “more Yellow (PLO) flags than Palestinian flags”.

On the other hand, the vote shows how Israel has gotten yet even more isolated internationally. 138 countries voted in favor of the Palestinians for only nine against. 41 abstained.

Out of the nine that voted against, four were Pacific island micro-states; the rest being one European (Czech Republic), three American (the US, Canada and Panama) and, obviously, Israel. Among the European countries, after being unable to agree on a common position, Germany, Netherlands and the UK abstained while France, Spain, Ireland and Italy voted yes.

But this international isolation is something Israel is used to. They actually expected it and the vote maybe comes just as the realization that they have “lost Europe”. The only country whose swift would actually mean something for Israel would be the US, and they have a strong ally in there.

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China shows off the Liaoning

Photo: Xinhua

China announced on Saturday 24^th that it has successfully completed the first take off and landing sea trials on the Liaoning, its new aircraft carrier.

It hasn’t been an easy task but China is finally on track to become not only an economic superpower, but a military one as well. Although they still lag far behind the capabilities of American ships, the country starts to develop a characteristic of every superpower through History, the projection of force.

The announcement came just a day after the Philippines, Vietnam and Taiwan issued a formal protest for the new Chinese passports. The documents depict a map of disputed islands in the South China Sea as belonging to China.

With the Liaoning finally being able to launch aircrafts, China enters the selected group of ten nations that operate aircraft carriers. However, the road here hasn’t been easy and China is far from the finish line.

The milestone comes almost 15 years after the purchase and reconditioning of the Liaoning -formerly the SovietVaryar. In order to train the future Navy pilots, China built on land a replica of the flight deck of the ship. Trials at this mock-up began two years ago.

Still, most analysts agree that the new Chinese achievement will not translate in an immediate change of the power balance in the region. The most important part of an aircraft carrier, the air wing, is composed of J-15s -an enhanced reverse engineered version of the Russian Su-33.

Photo: Xinhua

The J-15 fleet is still too new, untrained and small. It doesn’t help either that the lack of steam catapults on the Liaoning forces the planes to take off with minimal loads of fuel and weapons.

In fact, the primary reason for the new Chinese carrier and the J-15 is not that much showing muscle but warming up. The Liaoning is to serve as a platform to train and test future developments of the Chinese Navy that may be years or decades in the future. The former Varyar and its air wing are only a step in the forward direction.

To that extent, there are signs that show that China might be working on something. For starters, a battle group. Beijing has spent billions of dollars in the development of a new nuclear submarine and an AEGIS-style destroyer. And to train the crew, China has increased its participation in recent international military operations far from its shores -like anti-piracy patrols in waters off Somalia, Chinese citizen's rescue missions in Lybia or 'soft power' operations in South America.

Furthermore, China is known to be the only nation -together with the US- developing not one but two 5^th Gen. stealth fighters, the J-20 and the J-31. The later one shows signs of being carrier capable -like a double wheeled front landing gear- and it is comparable to the much troubled and delayed American F-35.

For now, Liaoning’s milestone has given Beijing the opportunity to show off and the two pilots involved in the trials have become instant heroes. It is not about the capabilities of the vessels, but a matter of national pride similar to the indigenous space program. Indeed, state media has reported that the two pilots’ task of performing the trials was “far more difficult” than an astronaut’smission.

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DEFCON 3 is back

Slowly but steadily, we will try to bring back DEFCON 3 in the following days. Winter may be coming but it's time to defrost!

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