Jehad’s birthday is on
the 30th of November. As a Palestinian living in the UK, the news of
Palestine being recognized as a state arrived from America just on time to
celebrate his birthday. At that moment, the UN was voting in favor of granting
Palestine recognition as a non-member state and a seat as an observer state at
the UN.
His fellow nationals
back across the West Bank and Gaza were as well celebrating. It is indeed a huge
step forward for the Palestinians towards a two state solution and an upgrade
to their situation, at least internationally.
Photo: AP/Seth Wenig
Upgrades, however, are
as good as the originals they are based on and this one is not an exception. If
the base is not good enough, the upgrade probably will fall on the short side. The
change of status may be a small victory but the real repercussions are few and
not all of them satisfactory for the Palestinians.
When Palestinians sobered
up from the UN vote, Israeli settlers were still building, the checkpoints were
still there, the wall was still present and the blockade in Gaza was still in effect. Even back at the UN, the Palestinians’ seat will remain at the same
place where it has been since 1974, besides the Holy See’s.
The benefits are
widely diplomatic more than on-the-ground results and they will take time to
become real. For starters, this would give the Palestinian Liberation Organization
(PLO) more weight in their negotiations with Israel.
The most talked about benefit
is the possibility for the PLO to apply for access to the InternationalCriminal Court (ICC) and prosecute Israeli citizens.
However, even this move could turn into a double edged sword because it would
allow as well Israel to prosecute Hamas militants after a rocket attack kills Israeli
civilians.
Furthermore, the
Palestinians don’t need to use the ICC. Several processes open in European
countries -specially in the UK and Spain- have proven effective bringing Israeli
leaders to a courtroom or, at least, limiting their travel freedom.
Photo: Anna Day/Instagram
The one effect this UN
bid has gotten is clearly propagandistic. Fatah is the biggest winner and they
needed it. Hamas was growing in popularity not only in Gaza but also in the
West Bank and this gives the PLO some air to breathe. As journalist Mikel
Ayestarán commented from Ramallah, in the celebrations on the street you could see “more Yellow (PLO) flags than Palestinian flags”.
On the other hand, the
vote shows how Israel has gotten yet even more isolated internationally. 138
countries voted in favor of the Palestinians for only nine against. 41
abstained.
Out of the nine that
voted against, four were Pacific island micro-states; the rest being one
European (Czech Republic), three American (the US, Canada and Panama) and,
obviously, Israel. Among the European countries, after being unable to agree on
a common position, Germany, Netherlands and the UK abstained while France,
Spain, Ireland and Italy voted yes.
But this international
isolation is something Israel is used to. They actually expected it and the
vote maybe comes just as the realization that they have “lost Europe”. The only country
whose swift would actually mean something for Israel would be the US, and they
have a strong ally in there.
China announced on Saturday 24th that it has successfully completed the first take off and landing sea trials on the Liaoning, its new aircraft carrier.
It hasn’t been an easy task but China is finally on track to become not only an economic superpower, but a military one as well. Although they still lag far behind the capabilities of American ships, the country starts to develop a characteristic of every superpower through History, the projection of force.
The announcement came just a day after the Philippines, Vietnam and Taiwan issued a formal protest for the new Chinese passports. The documents depict a map of disputed islands in the South China Sea as belonging to China.
With the Liaoning finally being able to launch aircrafts, China enters the selected group of ten nations that operate aircraft carriers. However, the road here hasn’t been easy and China is far from the finish line.
The milestone comes almost 15 years after the purchase and reconditioning of the Liaoning -formerly the SovietVaryar. In order to train the future Navy pilots, China built on land a replica of the flight deck of the ship. Trials at this mock-up began two years ago.
Still, most analysts agree that the new Chinese achievement will not translate in an immediate change of the power balance in the region. The most important part of an aircraft carrier, the air wing, is composed of J-15s -an enhanced reverse engineered version of the Russian Su-33.
Photo: Xinhua
The J-15 fleet is still too new, untrained and small. It doesn’t help either that the lack of steam catapults on the Liaoning forces the planes to take off with minimal loads of fuel and weapons.
In fact, the primary reason for the new Chinese carrier and the J-15 is not that much showing muscle but warming up. The Liaoning is to serve as a platform to train and test future developments of the Chinese Navy that may be years or decades in the future. The former Varyar and its air wing are only a step in the forward direction.
To that extent, there are signs that show that China might be working on something. For starters, a battle group. Beijing has spent billions of dollars in the development of a new nuclear submarine and an AEGIS-style destroyer. And to train the crew, China has increased its participation in recent international military operations far from its shores -like anti-piracy patrols in waters off Somalia, Chinese citizen's rescue missions in Lybia or 'soft power' operations in South America.
Furthermore, China is known to be the only nation -together with the US- developing not one but two 5th Gen. stealth fighters, the J-20 and the J-31. The later one shows signs of being carrier capable -like a double wheeled front landing gear- and it is comparable to the much troubled and delayed American F-35.
For now, Liaoning’s milestone has given Beijing the opportunity to show off and the two pilots involved in the trials have become instant heroes. It is not about the capabilities of the vessels, but a matter of national pride similar to the indigenous space program. Indeed, state media has reported that the two pilots’ task of performing the trials was “far more difficult” than an astronaut’smission.
11/30/2012
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