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Monday, December 07, 2009

What's at stake in Copenhagen?

This.



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Friendly fire 07/12/09

- The risks of citizen and amateur journalists in war areas.

- Airbus A400M to take off. Finally.

- India concerned over China, Pakistan military "nexus".

- Israel's pro-settlement soldiers worry leaders.

- So, where the hell is bin Laden?


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Ahead of Copenhagen summit...

Some really useful data and graphics on carbon emissions by country since the 80's. Data published by the Guardian Data Blog.




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Copenhagen challenges

The Danish capital will host from today and for two weeks a UN summit to tackle some action on carbon emissions. A total of 192 countries will attend a meeting that rises as much hope and expectations as doubts and questions.

With Kyoto protocol formally dead for everyone -some because consider it too few; some because never even started working on it- Copenhagen looks like the perfect opportunity to encourage a new green deal worldwide. But the meeting comes just after a conference in Barcelona that didn’t resolve anything. To that we need to add the questions rose following the leak of several email correspondence between some investigators that undermined the results of the global warming studies -and therefore, the whole thing around it.

But hope comes by the hand of the main actors -including Obama. Brazil, the US, China and India have promised each important CO2 emission cuts from now to 2020. Australia, Russia, Japan, Canada and other developed countries have followed them. Europe is the A student, ahead of everyone else, and has promised a further reduction by 30%.

But all those promises are worthless without action, as Kyoto has shown. Only Europe has achieved the agreed goals, and with internal differences. Italy, Spain and, surprisingly, the host country of this summit, Denmark, have struggled to meet the requirements and are not likely to do it in a near future.

In general, developed countries offer cuts between an 8% and 14% of the CO2 emissions. Even that is not enough. Most scientists claim for a need to meet a reduction of a 25% to 40% in the developed countries to avoid any serious problems by half this century. And those weak compromises not only are not enough, but also will be difficult to agree.

Everyone seems to agree on major issues. Maldives’ cabinet, an archipelago nation seriously endangered by the rise of sea levels, held a meeting under the sea in October to illustrate the urgency of the matter. Last week, the Nepalese government did the same in Mount Everest, helped with winter clothes and oxygen, to rise awareness over the glacial meltdown.

But it is something to agree on the obvious and something different to act in deep to avoid it. When the details about what to do appear is when discrepancies come to the surface too. The countries of the so called Umbrella group (USA, Australia, New Zealand, Canada and Russia) are asking for more compromises from the developing countries, something the latter and the EU oppose to.

Even in the way of controlling the emissions are disagreements. Some countries, like the US, want a carbon market where countries or even companies can trade over a fixed total of allowed emissions. This way, if a country -or company- doesn’t pollute as much as it’s allowed to do, it could sell that extra allowance to another country in need to pollute more; never over passing the total already fixed. For the EU, however, this is too complex and difficult to control and regulate, so they are opting for a carbon tax.

But as if only with internal disputes wasn’t enough, there are also some countries that don’t even agree to cut the dependency from fossil fuels. Not at least for free. The OPEC countries -oil producers- are asking for a compensation for the revenues they will lose if a new green deal is reached to cut carbon emissions. Some may say it is selfish to think that way, but for many of the OPEC countries, oil is the biggest contributor to their GDP, counting as much as for half of it -or even more- in some cases.

Anyway, whatever happens in the end in Copenhagen, leaders meeting there should have something clear in their minds: as Kyoto teached us, promises are nothing without action. Whatever they agree to do must be done, doesn’t matter how few it is. The world cannot afford another failed protocol.




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Sunday, December 06, 2009

Iraqi shoe-thrower finds his match

I assume you remember the Iraqi journalist that threw a pair of shoes at George W. Bush last year, starting a new way of protest (old for the Arab world) worldwide. Well, he had a taste of his own medicine last Tuesday when he nearly got beaned by a shoe thrower at a news conference in Paris.

The identity of the new shoe-thrower -and his motivation- weren't immediately clear, but he appeared to be an Iraqi. It was not known if the intruder was a journalist or just pretended to be one to attend the news conference at a center for foreign reporters.

What it's for sure is that Muntadhar al-Zeidi has as good reflexes as Bush, because he too ducked and the shoe hit the wall behind him. And he has good sense of humor too:

"He stole my technique," al-Zeidi later quipped.




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Friday, December 04, 2009

Say "cheeeese"!




This past September, when nearly all the world’s leaders were in New York for a meeting of the United Nations, Platon, a staff photographer for the New Yorker, set up a tiny studio off the floor of the General Assembly, and tried to hustle as many of them in front of his lens as possible. The project involved months of work. While immersed on it, some as Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu fell on the main rule that rulers have asked their photographers and painters for centuries: “Make me look good”.

Results finally are here. I don’t know if Mr. Netanyahu will be pleased with his picture, but there are indeed a few interesting points in the poster. Like for example, seeing together Gordon Brown (UK) and Brian Cowen (Ireland), who look like brothers. And in fact, even their political careers are very similar: both are in a shaky chair after substituting a troubled former leader, and coming from managing the Economics portfolio.

Standing with Cowen, just below is the Czech president Václav Klaus. Surprisingly, it’s not the only time the Czech has been behind Cowen; he signed the Lisbon Treaty -introduced the past Tuesday- only after Ireland passed it. The third one in the mess of Lisbon, Polish President Lech Kaczynski, is also around close to them.

But that’s not the only funny relationship. Ahmadinejad (Iran) and Chávez (Venezuela) are really close too. The same as Netanyahu (Israel), who is on the right of Obama (USA); left for us seeing the poster. Of course, Berlusconi is in the area where all the women in the collage are. Odinga (Kenya) on the other hand, is more reluctant of Kagame (Rwanda), who he observes with caution. And finally, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero (Spain) only needs a beret with a red star on his head to look like ‘Che’ Guevara.

The original poster with more info, here.



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Thursday, December 03, 2009

Outcasts' land

Three Somalian ministers died and two were severely injured today in an explosion in a hotel in Mogadishu while attending a graduation ceremony. There is no better way to illustrate the degradation of the stability of the UN backed government than that. A government that is only capable of controlling a few packs of the capital, and thanks to the blue berets from the African Union.

A few months ago, when David Axe was reporting from Somalia, he saw a huge tank in the gate of one of the Government compounds. Intrigued, Axe asked one of the commanders of the African peacekeepers, captain Paddy Ankunda, what was the T-55 for. “Not for being used”, Ankunda replied, “but for let the people know we could use them”. Only a month after that they had to use it. And again, only a month after, nine peacekeepers were killed in a double suicide attack, including a Burundian top commander.

Piracy has attracted the attention to the region but it is just a result of the outlaw chaos that reigns in the country area. It wouldn’t exist if a strong government was in place. But the UN backed cabinet is too weak to even defend themselves, as stated today’s attack, not to mention to defend their coastline. A new Somalian Navy is under formation, mirroring the structure of the “Sons of Iraq”, but so far it’s only a few hundred ex-fishermen -and ex-pirates- on the UN payroll sailing on skiffs.

But in Somalia, pirates and the government aren’t the only ones fighting. The al-Sahbab Islamist group, linked to al-Qaeda, is trying to make of Somalia -and Yemen- a regional hub for Islamists. So far, unsuccessfully. Somalia is too remote, too isolated and too xenophobic to become a haven like Afghanistan was. But thanks to the lack of government of any kind, they aren’t disturbed but for occasional skirmishes from Ethiopian troops. And that’s why they are calling for reinforcements. One of al-Qaeda’s most prominent militants, Abu Mansour al-Amriki (the American), lives already there. At least, they don’t like pirates either.

The end of the piracy in the Gulf of Aden is not only in the ocean, but in comprehensive strategies that include also action to support the UN peacekeepers in Mogadishu and the rest of Somalia. The UN has already authorized missions on Somalian soil to pursuit pirates and the government itself has called for support from others countries. Some would say they even begged for an invasion. But with things as they are right now in A'stan, it's unlikely someone else but the African Union will engage the problem. And they are already almost overran.




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Better?

A few months ago I talked in this blog about the new impulse for the Palestinian economy in the West Bank, simbolized by Nablus rebirth. I'm not the only one seeing this, but, then, why not more publicity about it?



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Are you afraid? Well, this works in that way. First you do what scares you and it's later when you get the courage
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