Arms race goes east III (Australia and the guardians of the West)

Before this perspective, the traditional guardians of the West -although some Japanese may disagree on this- are rearming themselves too for what may come.

Japan, mentioned above, plans the biggest remodelation of their Armed Forces since World War II. Not only a material one, but spiritually and in essence. After WWII, as their name states, Japanese army is only an Autodefence army, just for defensive means and not expansive as the previous empire. But just a few years ago, Japan started to go abroad, always keeping in mind avoiding the direct combat, however. Now, Japan’s army has have presence in Iraq and Japanese navy sails the East coast of Africa to patrol the waters and keep them free of pirates.

Of course, we don’t have to go so far to find the biggest problem for Japan: Korea. The DPRK and its missile and nuclear programs represent a big pain in the arse in the backyard. That’s why the main expenses in Japanese defense budget runs along anti-missile systems. Japanese navy is the only foreign navy, together with the Spanish, that has the AEGIS system integrated in their ships. Japan also has a vast network of Patriot launchers defending the cities and strategic areas of the country. And it’s studying the creation of an early warning satellite network.

If Japan is Korea’s Cerberus, India is Pakistan’s. Like we said in the post before, the danger of an Islamist Pakistan in the hands of fanatics with nuclear weapons is a real nightmare. And in spite of American plans to recover the weapons, is better to watch our backs before it happens. That’s why the Indian army is re-enforcing itself heavily. Examples of this are the new Sukhois, new indigenous tanks (plus new T-90 Russian tanks), and two new carriers by 2010.

This expenditure, however, carries on some risks too. As we have said here in Worldwide before, India and Pakistan are playing a dangerous game in an arms race. An increase in India’s military budget may be seen in Pakistan as a new threat. And that may launch the Pakistan army into the hands of the Talibans. Even more than now.

And although India may be powerful, and Japan so, and others like Singapore, who is buying second hand Eagles, is irrelevant if compared to the combined power of the foes. And they lack of regional leadership and strength. Here is when it comes all to Australia.

The new Australian Defence white paper plans a remodelation of Australian armed forces from now to 2030. This would be the biggest -and more expensive- since WWII also for the Australians.

Priority for Australians, as said by their Premier, is to play the role of the USA in the Pacific. This is, becoming a regional superpower capable of facing China any potential risk and to defend themselves from a “direct attack”.

It’s surprising, however, to see Australia spending cash they don’t have, specially when the rest of the world is cutting costs everywhere. But truth is that, although maybe it won’t be possible to accomplish all the demands, Australia has a big relieve to his economy in his mining industry. Ironically, the main buyer is China. That allows the Australian run a bit faster than others in these economically confusing times.

To the increase in the Afghanistan expenditure, we have to add up a close co-operation with New Zealand. Australia also will bet for air power. Just last month, Mr. Rudd’s government announced they will buy more Super Hornets, more Growlers, upgrade the current fleet and up to 100 more JSF. Even the Raptor has attracted their attention (unsuccessfully).

However, the biggest push comes from the Navy, like other countries in the area. The submarine fleet will double the present size, from 6 to 12 -although there will persist the present problem of how to supply those subs with crew. It’s also contemplated the acquisition of a few surface ships, including 8 new frigates, a carrier and a few hundred choppers to supply them.

But is all this necessary? In Beijing no one sees this plan as a threat. And letting aside a few exceptions, neither the West thinks like that. As we said before, it’s more plausible to have China as a friend to count on (like with the six party negotiations with Korea) rather than as a foe. It’s worth then to ask if Australia really need such an expensive military bill in a so instable economic climate. But of course, it’s easy to say this when Iran, Pakistan, the DPRK and China are more than 10 hours away in a plane and not in your backyard.



Photo; Reuters