The new old superpower (II)

As we said last week, China has all the ingredients to become a great power. It already is one at the regional level. But doubt remains about whether it can be constructed also as a real world superpower.

The traditional definition of superpower has been usually linked to a powerful army. And regarding that, China still has a long way to go.

In recent years and especially since 2011, China has prompted several major military projects. These include for example several types of aircraft under development, among which are especially relevant the J20 and J31.

These two prototypes make China, along with the U.S., the only other country which has two models of flying 5th-generation aircrafts. Russia, the third runner in possession of this technology, is developing only one model. The rest, none.

But nothing exemplifies a superpower more than its force projection capabilities. That's where come into the picture the submarine and aircraft carrier forces the Chinese navy (PLA) is developing.

Both platforms are the spearhead of any modern army. They are the ones that allow a country’s forces to be deployed rapidly anywhere in the world and until now it is what so far has lacked the Chinese army.

However the Chinese still have many years of development ahead of them to even get closer to the American potential, let alone surpass it. But the mere fact that they are providing the basis for this kind of military power has more than one brain concern in Washington.

In their favor plays something else. China doesn’t seem to want to follow the militaristic model of the United States and Russia. Surely its armed forces will continue to go abroad on an exponential basis as its influence grows. But mainly it will be for maneuvers and for humanitarian missions -something they could not do during the 2004 tsunami but learned in time for the disaster of Fukushima.

This strategy fits well with the soft power approach that China has historically exercised and exercises today in Africa, Latin America and Asia. A power that was tested in Libya, when it was forced to evacuate the large population of Chinese expatriates working there in the oil and gas industry.

The high demand for energy and resources has made China open to the world to find them. Mongolia, Australia, Venezuela and Uganda are among the countries that have benefited from Chinese soft power commercial contracts.

The case of the African country is particularly striking. In a country where until recently infrastructure was nonexistent, today you can make your way through the jungle in wide six-lane highways. Even Top Gear presenters were surprised when they saw them in the Africa special. It is the Chinese gift to Africa in exchange for their resources.

But China has shown it is also willing to play aggressively. And when we talk about today’s battlefields of economics and business, the aircraft carriers are the international companies and submarines are the rating agencies.

The Asian giant has also begun to enter with authority into these areas. Chinese companies have been for years expanding themselves into the Western market, either by geographical reach (like the introduction of Chinese goods in Europe) or acquisitions of Western companies (like the purchase of Volvo).

Meanwhile, back in May China established its first Chinese rating agency together with Russia to counter Moody's and S&P, both American and highly criticized, also from the European Union, for being biased and pro-US interest.

However, if the Asian giant is truly to become a globally dominant economy, it still has a lot of homework to do.

The main problem that China has is the same that has allowed it to create so much so fast: it is the country of the copy. Early in its development, copycats served the Chinese industry to get a head start. However, they have become accustomed to it.

A recurring theme among expatriates in China is the lack of imagination of local subordinates. They know to follow orders and they know how to copy, but they are unable to create and innovate.

Their initiative is reduced with a generation that has grown up in the shelter of not having to think about anything, just engineer retroactively or follow the instructions from blueprints purchased in questionable conditions or stolen from a foreign server. A lack of initiative that is worsened by the internet censorship.

Of course there are people who innovate, but the results are... let’s say that far from perfect. The best Chinese products today are still based on other foreign projects. When China becomes the lead of the pack, they will encounter a serious problem of innovation.

The rest of the world is now also better protected against copying. An employee of a Spanish aeronautical company told me how on a visit of potential Chinese investors they had to isolate them so they could not see or copy anything. They went as far as blocking office windows that faced the factory grounds and test labs and took off the network the computers the Chinese investors used.

The energy hunger problem, on the other hand, will curb the Chinese industry’s growth. Despite the large planned investment in nuclear power plants, to maintain the current level of production growth, China would need to increase by 50% the consumption of coal. Something that will involve both environmental and economic difficulties.

Also, many Chinese still believe today that the best future for their children is outside of China. Without a winning mentality in China, it is difficult to create a leader country. This extent is joined by the problem of an aging population that is going to be increasingly older. The one-child policy has endangered Chinese generational takeover.

Despite all this, and even if only because of its demographic weight, China is bound to have an important role this century. Their elites know this and they are preparing the ground with the military build-up. Meanwhile, America is in decline, running away from a world police role.

It is also happening on the political level; China is building-up influence, venturing into issues that had not mattered before to Chinese officials, like the conflict between Israel and Palestine. To interfere in a regional issue so far from its area of ​​influence is a clear sign of the dominant role that China is called to exercise. Whether America likes it or not.

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The new old superpower (I)

The decline of the U.S. as a lone superpower looms on the horizon. China comes pushing hard. Sometime between 2015 and 2020, depending on whose analysis you rely on, the Asian giant will become the world's largest economy.

In a time where soldiers have given way to traders and territorial invasions to company takeovers, that means power and control.

It has been a relatively short journey for China. Its economic evolution has been exponential in the last three decades. Back in 2003, China was the world's sixth largest economy. In 2004 it overcame France. In 2006 it was the turn for the United Kingdom to bite the dust. In 2009 fell Germany. And in 2011 Japan gave away the silver medal. Now only the US stands in the way to the top.

Today, China leads the ranking of population by country. But also in the number of internet connections, energy consumption per capita and the country vehicle fleet. These factors -its huge population and huge domestic market- are what have allowed the country to grow at an average rate of around 10% annually.

This growth has gone hand in hand with the Chinese increase in the life quality index. The Chinese live in general way better now than just a decade ago and have gained in that time what others countries accomplished over half a century. On average, their wages have grown too 10% annually since 2006.

Something similar has happened with the development of the industry. In twenty years it has seen a fast pace industrial revolution that in Europe and the U.S. lasted for over 200 years. Today it is the largest manufacturer in the world of all kinds of goods.

Contributing to this explosion was the massive rural migration to the cities. 120 million Chinese people have left behind the fields to sit behind machines at factories in huge new cities with the population of entire countries.

It also helps its industry that China controls the production of rare earth metals, essential elements for all kinds of modern electronic devices, from mobile phones to washing machines.

The economic boom and rapid development has brought unique situations. It has extremes that to the foreign eye cause shock and awe. As the good replicators they are, the Chinese took what they wanted from the capitalist system -the economy- and what they wanted from the communist system -the administrative organization- creating a quirky cocktail, which is unique and sometimes extremely wild.

The communist legacy makes the Chinese bureaucracy extremely dreaded, especially by expatriates working there. It is a mixture of communist-era rules and timid liberal openings as difficult to navigate as a maze. Moreover, that same mixed bureaucracy makes sometimes the capitalist economy to have to bend around stupid or wild assumptions, creating a result that is neither capitalist nor communist but a mixture of the worst of both.

A clear example of this are the nail houses. In the 60s, the communist government could expropriate land at will paying very low compensation. With the introduction of private property laws in 2007, the owners won some bargaining power. 

This led to stupid situations. Throughout China there are examples of residents who refused to sell their homes and builders built everything from shopping centers to roads around them. The results are simply surreal in most of the cases.

However, one of the things that the Chinese have learned to do extremely well is to protest. Sometimes their voices are heard, sometimes not.

In recent years, the environmental issue has been a continuing focus of protests: the depletion of aquifers, pollution of the air or the cancer villages are just a few examples.

Corruption, human rights and civil rights have been at the center stake as well, this last one a field where the artist Ai Weiwei has been its most prominent spokesman in recent years.

However, advances in both environmental issues and human rights and civil rights issues have been timid. The Chinese government considers both a collateral damage that it is willing to take if in exchange progress is achieved.

That is not the case with corruption, an area where Beijing’s government seems to be starting to consider more seriously.

Inside its own country, the Chinese government has been concerned to make clear to its own citizens that the global importance of the country has increased. The architectural mega-projects like the world's largest dam, the highest altitude railway or one of the longest bridges in the world have put China once more in the map.

But not only concrete jungles drive Chinese pride. Since it hosted the Olympic Games in 2008, China has come to control them in the arena in the latest edition in London. In addition, part military, part civilian, the Chinese indigenous space program is a feat that few countries can boast.

This increasing prestige has been joined with the increase in living standards. Higher wages have made the Chinese tourists the biggest spenders outside its borders and, therefore, the most desirable. But also be the most problematic ones.

China has all the ingredients to become a great power. It already is one at the regional level. But doubt remains about whether it can be constructed also as a world superpower. 

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Turkey and Brazil: the connections and the mismatches

Miles apart, they don’t share language, culture, religion or a common colonial past. But despite that, both Brazil and Turkey are under unrest at the moment. Citizen movements that mirror on the Occupy movement and the Arab Spring have flourished and are gaining momentum from Rio to Istanbul. But what makes them different and what do they share?

Differences

Where they come from and where they go to

Brazil and Turkey were never in the spotlight. They always have been important regional powerhouses, but they lacked the support of an important global player like the EU. However, in the past decade both countries have gained relevance and economical power of their own and now can fight as equals with the EU (Turkey) or even in a global scene (Brazil).

However, while Brazil is much more independent to act, Turkey must look closely its actions if it wants to join the EU. The backlash against the protests has not improved the prospects of accession to the Union for the Turks.

The flame and the spark that ignited the flame

In Brazil it always has been about money. It all started with a 10-cent hike in public transport prices. But soon it grew to cope with the widespread frustration over a whole set of economic issues, from high taxes to wasteful expenses for two major sporting events (2014 World Cup and 2016 Olympics).

CS Gas canister; made in Brazil, used in Turkey

In Turkey it always was about defending secularism. Sure, the spark of the unrest was the proposal to uproot some trees to redevelop the area into a mall -or a mosque. But deep within the protesters demands is the fear of a Islamisation of Erdogan’s government. Recent laws passed with restrictions on the sale and advertising of alcohol and an attempt to limit women's access to abortion are deeper roots into the protests than the roots of the trees in Taksim. 

In both cases, however, the initial spark that ignited the unrest was a mere catalyst of a reaction years in the making.

The countries’ leaders

The Turkish PM Recep Tayyip Erdogan has become the target of the ire of the protesters. They blame him and his party for his policies. The response from Erdogan has been a stronger crackdown on the protesters. It is now a very public struggle: Erdogan and his party against a myriad of other groups that include ecologists, LGBT rights supporters and Kurdish independentists among others.

On the other hand, Dilma Rousseff, a former leftist guerrillera who was imprisoned and tortured during Brazil's 1964-85 dictatorship, hailed the protests for raising questions and strengthening Brazil's democracy. Unlike Turkey's leader, Rousseff remains popular among many of the protesters.

Epicenter vs. dispersion.

Turkey has a clear HQ for its unrest: Taksim square. In Brazil it is a bit more distributed. Sao Paulo and Rio have held multitudinous demonstrations that travelled through the city. In the case of Turkey, it has been a fight -and a proper one- for the control of Taksim square, the symbol of the protest and where it all started.

Similarities

The protests started outside the capital

All the previous revolutions started and took shape in the country’s capitals. Tehran, Cairo, Athens, Madrid… Both Brazil and Turkey have administrative capitals that aren’t the main city in the country. And for both of them, it wasn’t in the capitals but in those others main cities where it all started. Rio and Sao Paulo in Brazil and Istanbul in Turkey have been from the beginning the beachheads for their countries revolutions.

A growing middle-class…

The fast growing economies in Brazil and Turkey have created a new middle-class that previously was really small. This new middle-class is better educated, better informed and more ambitious. The problem is that the upper tiers in the Turkish and Brazilian societies have won much more purchasing power than the middle-classes; thus widening the gap. This is the opposite to the case of Spain and Greece, where no one has won purchasing power (there it is a case of the middle-classes losing more than the upper tiers).

…but also growing inequality

Despite the economic growth, the gini index has gotten bigger for both of them. This shows the increasing inequality that the population in both Turkey and Brazil are facing. The gap between the top and the bottom is getting wider, and the scale is stretching so much that the space in between for the middle-class is endangered.

The police crackdown on protesters

Both unrests have been met with equal hard measures. Batons, water cannons, rubber bullets and gas canisters have been used by both governments to suppress the demonstrations. In an episode of twisted irony, protesters in Turkey discovered that the CS gas canisters used by the Turkish police were made in Brazil.

Both police forces have been also strongly criticized for the use of excessive force. In Turkey, the police union said that at least six policemen had committed suicide due to the stress that they were being put under. In Brazil, the video of a cop refusing to crack down on protesters and being fired on the spot by his superior has gone viral on YouTube.

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Old habits die hard

We live in a world radically different to the one from the Cold War era. In fact, that is a period of time that has been left behind by all of us. No more fear of a nuclear holocaust. In Hollywood, the bad guys are now Arab terrorists, not communist soldiers.

Even the age of the arms race has been overcome. Not only we are reducing our nuclear arsenals –except for you, Kim. The armies in general are shifting their priorities. The United Kingdom doesn’t put its emphasis anymore on nuclear submarines. The Russians are going the same way with their subs.

War has changed. You do not need large armies to fight with other nations’ big armies. Now different weapons are in demand. Remotely controlled drones, armored vehicles that resist homemade mines and guerrilla tactics for compact armies; those are the tactics generals want now.

Not even the United States wants to be a policeman of the world anymore. Its intervention in Libya was on par with the French. In Mali it only provided auxiliary forces. And when it comes to Syria, it's been trying to stay out of it for as long as it has been able to.

Of course, one thing is to want to abandon old habits and quite another one to do so. There are still vestiges of the Cold War that are very active. The most interesting one is the case of old fashion espionage.

During the 90s, the advancement of technology made spy agencies decide to spend less on information from human sources and more on their digital eyes. Satellites in orbit were giving all the information they felt they needed. However, 9-11 changed the paradigm and since then the human spies are living a second youth.

The latest episode, including the capture of an American CIA spy in Moscow, illustrates that little has changed. He wore various wigs, a compass, a blocker for radio signals (tin foil) and as the only element of the 21^st century, a mobile phone.

It is not the only recent espionage case. In London, the death of former KGB agent Alexander Litvinenko has led some to believe that his former bosses were behind the poisoning with polonium.

Anna Chapman

Much more striking was the capture of Anna Chapman and nine other Russian spies in the United States. Chapman went immediately on to become a celebrity.

But there is one side of the resurgence of the Cold War times much less reported: the revival of reconnaissance flights. During the '60s, '70s and '80s, American and Russian aircrafts occasionally poked or even went into foreign airspace. It was a sort of cat and mouse game, whose purpose was to check whether the other’s defenses were alert or not.

Russia has returned to this game several times since 2012. Long-range bombers sporadically poke the Arctic and tested the patience of its neighbors. In this regard, Sweden has failed the test. It was not the first time that Russian aircraft entered its airspace and Swedes have failed to respond in time.

This strategy is probably part of another covert war that is beginning to take shape: the battle for the Arctic. But that's a story for another day.

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The living hell of the displaced

Last year set a new record in terms of people internally displaced (IDP) by violence. In total 28.8 million people have had to leave their homes around the world fleeing from armed conflicts. Syria and Congo top the list.

The IDP’s situation is even worse than that of refugees. For starters, the number of IDPs doubles that of refugees. Unlike the refugees who leave their country of origin, the IDPs remain in it.

However, this causes many more problems for the internally displaced. For starters, their situation is more precarious.

If it is a civil war, such as in Syria, they are in danger of being caught by the same horror of fleeing and relive the hell of having to escape again. Or in a crossfire.

In addition, refugees enjoy international protection while the internally displaced people lack of it.

Of the nearly 29 million internally displaced people, one-fifth (6.5 million) are newly displaced in the last last. The rest were from before 2012.

Syria takes the brunt in terms of newly displaced. From a total of more than 3 million Syrians internally displaced, two and a half were new from 2012.

The data gives a new dimension to the words of Antonio Guterres, UN High Commissioner for the Refugees, which has described the Syrian conflict as the greatest humanitarian catastrophe since the end of the Cold War.

In terms of total numbers, Colombia is the country with the highest number of internally displaced persons, most of them long term, followed by the aforementioned Syria and the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Photo US Navy

In fact, the Sub-Saharan region, with over 10 million displaced, is the hardest hit area of ​​the world. Only in November 2012, more than 140,000 people left the Congolese city of Goma after the rebel group M23 attacked the city.

No wonder, therefore, that Africa is a pioneer trying to solve the problem of the displaced. In December last year, 37 of the 53 countries that make up the African Union signed the Kampala Convention. Some of them, however, still have to ratify it.

The document contains several basic rights of internally displaced persons and urges governments to work to return them to their homes or reunite families divided by conflicts among other things.

There is still much to be done, however, as evidenced by the drama of the IDPs and refugees from South Sudan. After surviving the horrors of war, when they tried to return home they have been found living in conditions even worse than those they had in the refugee camps.

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The lost generation

The latest Eurostat data leaves us with a figure of desolation. A quarter of young Europeans are unemployed. The situation is even worse in the southern European countries where youth unemployment is above 50%.

That is why the north blames the south of being unfairly supporting its load. The populations of Scandinavia and the UK, countries that until recently welcomed and even demanded foreign labor, are beginning to see Southern Europeans as a plague and xenophobic acts, although very rare, have increased.

In the last British local elections, the conservative parties -especially the eurosceptic UKIP, but also the tories of Prime Minister David Cameron- have made a huge profit with the fear of European immigrant.

In September, Cameron’s government will implement more stringent controls for access to unemployment benefits and other assistance. In fact, the European migration control has become a central issue in British politics.

The truth is that the influx of young people from Southern Europe puts even more pressure on social systems that already bear a great burden. But the truth is also that an increased immigration is not linked to an increase in unemployment; that is a myth.

On the contrary, what really is a threat to Europe is the possibility of a lost generation. Worldwide there are about 300 million young people who are neither studying nor working -called NEET. Many of them do not even appear in the unemployment statistics because they are long-term unemployed or have never worked.

It is a global phenomenon. So far, Southeast Asia and the Middle East have led the ranking of number of NEETs. In fact, this was one of the reasons for the outbreak of the Arab Spring. But Europe is moving closer to these levels.

Greece tops the list with 64% of unemployed youth, followed by Spain with 55%. In countries such as Ireland, over 300,000 people have emigrated in the last four years, of which 40% were under 25 years. For a country with a population of about six million, that means that one in every four families has a migrant member.

The causes of this are complex. Much has been made of the lack of coordination between what the labor market demands and what universities produce. Also the digital divide has been on the table as a possible cause.

Photo: Daily Telegraph

But as this article explains, if there are not enough people to fill certain jobs, those jobs’ salaries should have increased. It is something that would be a logical consequence of the law of supply and demand.

However, instead of increased salaries, we got inflation, rise of prices and freeze of wages. Instead of becoming richer, the gap between poor and rich is widening and mostly against the poor.

Another more possible cause is the lack of foresight by the governments of Southern Europe. In countries where investment in science and R & D is high and the government promotes an entrepreneur mentality, such as Germany, Austria and the UK, the impact of unemployment has been felt but not as drastically as in Spain or Greece.

Meanwhile, the southern European countries enjoyed no safety net in case the construction and tourism industries failed. After falling these two sectors have dragged with them other more complex industries.

That is why today in Berlin we can find queuing a waiter of the Greek islands, a bricklayer from Spain and an Italian engineer, all together. An economy, an education system and a mentality based on the first two dragged with them the third in their fall.

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