Nuclear diplomacy

From time to time we hear about the imminent threat that Iran posses to the West. It is usually coming from Israeli or the US. Being Iran as cheeky as it usually is when it comes to its nuclear program, this shouldn’t be a surprise.

Like in a game, the IAEA inspectors and Iran are constantly playing out each other. So far Iran wins. They managed to fool the International Agency several times and with a wide array of tricks. Either by undisclosing secret facilities built buried inside a mountain or plain lying about the program, they have earned a reputation of dishonesty.

Yet the constant nagging about Iran meets always strong arguments against that premise more often than not. In fact, it is usually within the US Pentagon that we get reminded that Iran is not a threat, nor it will be in a near future.

We have so many eyes on the country that building up enough uranium to make a bomb under our noses would be impossible. More precisely; it would be possible, but we would know it.

If that was the case and Iran decided to go ahead and set hell loose, it still wouldn’t be a matter of a blink of an eye. It would take at least a year for that to happen. The last few steps made by the Persian country set them back rather than forward. 

Ahmadinejad talking nuclear/Reuters

Even more, according to analyst Meir Javedanfar from The Diplomat, building a bomb could be a bad move for Iran. Unlike North Korea, who has made of isolation and nuclear diplomacy an art, Iran needs the world and does not need a bomb.

Actually, getting a bomb would mean more sanctions for the country. For an oil-exporter like Iran, difficulties to export oil are very damaging for its economy. And sanctions are amongst the biggest difficulties.

This scenario would mean a bigger strain on the already weak economy of Iran and a more discontent population. That, trouble at home, is what North Korea doesn’t have to worry about but Iran does. And it is what ultimately would deter Iran from seeking the bomb.

It is interesting, however, that while the rest of the world is forced to comply with the sanctions, a selected group of countries are allowed by the USA to bypass that and get the much needed Iranian oil.