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Tuesday, January 22, 2013

Dissecting Mali


The year started strong with a French air and ground offensive in Mali. Although many cannot help but see parallelisms between what is happening in Africa and what happened in Iraq, the fact is that they are two different realities.

For starters, France had been called in by the Malian government itself and has the support of the UN and regional countries. However, it is not like they have a lack of reasons to be interested in rescuing them. From the rich uranium mines that feed the French "nuclear deterrence" to the fact that if al-Qaeda succeeds in the Sahara they would have a base of operations in Europe's backyard, just three hours away by plane. It all adds up.

To avoid greater evils, France has gone with almost everything they have in their arsenal, short of the very best. Apart from its aircraft carriers, nuclear weapons or tanks, everything else is represented in Mali. And despite that, they already got a slap in the face, with the death and display of the bodies of two French marines, a la Black Hawk Down in Somalia.

Photo: Joe Penney/Reuters
There is no wonder that Somali touches seep into Mali. Actually the West African country is just another front in a war that extends several thousand kilometers. It is a covert war, far from the newspapers’ leads, that has been fought for a decade and in which Mali becomes the third front. (See map below)

Starting in the east, the French base in Djibouti is also the home of several multinational squadrons fighting piracy off the coast of Somalia. What is less known is that it also has American drones that daily pound al-Shabab and other Islamist groups’ positions in Yemen and Somalia, even more frequently than they do it in Afghanistan and Pakistan. That is quite something.

A little further west we have a UN mission in Darfur, another one in the newly created South Sudan and one more in Chad, all of them with the presence of European or American soldiers. The later have created a vast intelligence network over the past five years, deployed in the area with their eyes put on Boko Haram.

Click to enlarge
Back in Mali, both Boko Haram al-Shabab are present, advising and assisting the rebels. Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) is actively coordinating with them and other Islamist groups like Ansar Dine.

Its potential danger is palpable and there are facts that confirm it, such as the recent kidnapping in Algeria of a gas plant and killing of hostages in the subsequent rescue operation. Sites part of UNESCO’s Human Historical Heritage like Timbuktu have been severely damaged by the religious extremism of these groups, in actions reminiscent of the blowing up of the giant Buddhas in Afghanistan by the Taliban.

Culture is not the only victim of these groups. After the war in Libya, the Tuareg -under the National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA) - decided to join Ansar Dine and conquer northern Mali. After they got it, the Islamists ousted them from power and imposed Sharia law in the region.

The creation of an Islamist state in Mali is what most worries the West. After the withdraw in Iraq and Afghanistan -both left in a precarious state-, and the growing popularity of religious groups in Egypt, Libya and the Syrian revolution, the vision of a Sharia ruled belt ranging from Yemen to Mali both terrifies Washington, Paris and London and makes the wettest wildest dreams of the radical Islamists.

However, for now the U.S. and the EU have left France alone at it. The conflict can easily get stalled and nobody wants another Afghanistan now that they are getting out from there. The most they have committed is to provide transport planes, tankers and drones.

Moreover, the French have a better understanding of the area and it isn’t the first time they have gotten involved there. If someone has to go, it is just the natural thing to let the French do it.


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More: From the BBC, who is who in Mali.

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