What after Palestine-194?

Jehad’s birthday is on the 30^th of November. As a Palestinian living in the UK, the news of Palestine being recognized as a state arrived from America just on time to celebrate his birthday. At that moment, the UN was voting in favor of granting Palestine recognition as a non-member state and a seat as an observer state at the UN.

His fellow nationals back across the West Bank and Gaza were as well celebrating. It is indeed a huge step forward for the Palestinians towards a two state solution and an upgrade to their situation, at least internationally.

Photo: AP/Seth Wenig

Upgrades, however, are as good as the originals they are based on and this one is not an exception. If the base is not good enough, the upgrade probably will fall on the short side. The change of status may be a small victory but the real repercussions are few and not all of them satisfactory for the Palestinians.

When Palestinians sobered up from the UN vote, Israeli settlers were still building, the checkpoints were still there, the wall was still present and the blockade in Gaza was still in effect. Even back at the UN, the Palestinians’ seat will remain at the same place where it has been since 1974, besides the Holy See’s.

The benefits are widely diplomatic more than on-the-ground results and they will take time to become real. For starters, this would give the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) more weight in their negotiations with Israel.

The most talked about benefit is the possibility for the PLO to apply for access to the InternationalCriminal Court (ICC) and prosecute Israeli citizens. However, even this move could turn into a double edged sword because it would allow as well Israel to prosecute Hamas militants after a rocket attack kills Israeli civilians.

Furthermore, the Palestinians don’t need to use the ICC. Several processes open in European countries -specially in the UK and Spain- have proven effective bringing Israeli leaders to a courtroom or, at least, limiting their travel freedom.

Photo: Anna Day/Instagram 

The one effect this UN bid has gotten is clearly propagandistic. Fatah is the biggest winner and they needed it. Hamas was growing in popularity not only in Gaza but also in the West Bank and this gives the PLO some air to breathe. As journalist Mikel Ayestarán commented from Ramallah, in the celebrations on the street you could see “more Yellow (PLO) flags than Palestinian flags”.

On the other hand, the vote shows how Israel has gotten yet even more isolated internationally. 138 countries voted in favor of the Palestinians for only nine against. 41 abstained.

Out of the nine that voted against, four were Pacific island micro-states; the rest being one European (Czech Republic), three American (the US, Canada and Panama) and, obviously, Israel. Among the European countries, after being unable to agree on a common position, Germany, Netherlands and the UK abstained while France, Spain, Ireland and Italy voted yes.

But this international isolation is something Israel is used to. They actually expected it and the vote maybe comes just as the realization that they have “lost Europe”. The only country whose swift would actually mean something for Israel would be the US, and they have a strong ally in there.