Honey, get over it (Updated) ~ DEFCON 3

A week ago, John Kerry -the former next president of America- said that the USA really lacks of a clear strategy for Pakistan. Oh, thanks. That’s perfect, just what we needed. And to make it worse, it comes from a holy cow of the Democrats. Great!

But however, maybe there is something going on in the US. Here in Worldwide we have been saying it for a long time. To solve A’stan you need to focus on Pakistan, and to solve that you need to keep an eye on India.

Well, apparently in Washington offices they are also realizing this. Do they read us? General Petraeus went this week to the Pakistanis and said the damn “We need to talk” sentence. At the end, he shouted clearly: “Honey, get over it. It’s over”.

“The biggest of the big ideas with respect to Pakistan is that the existential threat to the country is the internal extremist threat, not the Indians — and that is a pretty big idea,” Petraeus said. “It is an intellectually dislocating idea for the institutions of Pakistan, for the military, for others that have spent — just as we spent decades faced off against the Warsaw Pact and were almost comfortable with that.”

Of course, it won’t be easy for Pakistan to get rid of the “comfort” of having an enemy easy to hate. Indians are culturally different and have another religion; they are “the others”. But start fighting someone you see as your brother in your eternal struggle against your biggest foe, that ain’t easy.

But Petraeus is right. If Pakistan doesn’t handle the indigenous extremists, the former friends can easily become dangerous insurgency foes. The US knows well about this.

Pakistani Talibans have shown several times their capability. A growing capability, by the way. The blasts are daily. And nobody is safe. Not even something as sacred in the area as cricket. In fact, the attack suffered by the Sri Lankan national team forced to suspend the World Cup of 2011 in Pakistan (and will take place in India instead).

Talibans have been able to strike even in India. The trial for the Mumbai attacks that started this week is a painful remainder of what was a dangerous incident that could destabilize the region.

Of course, the US have played a key role on that too. Maybe they should listen to Kerry and do something about their strategy in Pakistan too. Obama’s Administration recognizes that there is a threat, but doesn’t want to get dirt in Pakistani soil. So they attack with drones, what ends in attacks and terror over the population more than over the Talibans. A great recruitment claim for future terrorists.

Pakistani military isn’t happy either. They want the drones attacking the insurgency (not officially), but they want them under their control. Unlikely to happen. With an army not fully trusted by the Americans and a weak and lackluster political class, there aren’t the ideal conditions for a power handover.

Meanwhile the ones in green will continue ruling the country in the shadows, focusing on India. From the American aid to Pakistan, most of the money went into frigates, jets, missiles, subs and AAAs. Great to fight another conventional army (let’s say... India!) but completely useless for asymmetrical warfare.

What remains clear is that Pakistan is the clue of the region stability. Petraeus said in the same conference named above that Afghanistan "is going to get worse before it gets better". If in between we also lose Pakistan -or even worse, it falls on the hands of extremists-, that could be fatal. Just remember, Pakistan has nukes.