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Friday, February 13, 2009

OK, let’s get started... Oh, wait.

The honeymoon between Obama and the Americans has just begun. The opinion polls show an approval rate of a 63% -it started at a 68%- for the new Executive’s policy. It’s high. It’s definitely far more than the one of George W. Bush when he took the job (57%) and way higher than the one he had just before leaving the office (24%).

But Obama’s Executive has its hands tied. Not at home neither abroad, is being able to start with the real work and disapproval of the people has increased from a 12% to a 22%.

At home, instead of the clear politics predicted -and hoped- by Obama what we have is a bunch of resignations in the new team. Bill Richardson, Tom Daschle, Nancy Killefer and last -but maybe not least- one was Judd Gregg, who have left Obama's team with a lot of holes to fill up. He needs now urgently someone who is not opposed to his policies and has no tax problems. Hard to find in a place like Washington. At least he will keep the agenda of his Blackberry.

Abroad, Obama’s policy depends highly on others guys’ policies -the ones of the “3i”s: Iraq, Israel and Iran. And he will have to wait until it is decided who those guys are. In Iraq the recent local elections were shown as an exam for PM Nuri al-Maliki. At the end, Mr. Maliki’s party boosted its support in the main cities, so the schedule for Iraq will remain according to the book for now. (Photos of the Iraqi elections in Financial Times)

What is most surprising is that the main news of these elections were that they weren’t any violent news. It’s Iraq already pacified by the appearance of holy-Obama? Well, not so fast. Said and done.

In Israel, on the other hand, results haven’t been so clear. The technical draw between the two main parties (Kadima, 28%; Likud, 27%) makes everything very interesting. Tzipi Livni, leader of Kadima, has offered a unity government to Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud. But it is uncertain if they will accept this, as Mr. Netanyahu can form a government with the seats from the right-wing parties. Avigsor Lieberman’s far-right party Yisrael Beiteinu seems to hold the key.

One could think that in the Palestinian Territories wouldn’t be so glad with these results, but there are already some Arab intellectuals -as well as some Israeli leftists- that are asking for a government in Israel lead by Mr. Netanyahu. Argument is clear: let the world see the real face of Israel.

Another important item in foreign policy for the US will be holding an election this summer. In June, current President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (conservative) will face former president Mohammad Khatami (moderate) and the reformist Mehdi Karoubi (who wants direct talks with the US) in what is being considered a referendum on the performance of the actual government. From the results of that poll depends most of the future in the region.

Finally, in Afghanistan elections have been delayed until the end of August, due to the increase of insurgency. Until then, Obama has plenty of time to argue with his european partners about how to send more troops to Afghanistan. And even at home too. And plenty of time to lose more guns. And even at home too. And plenty of time to get in trouble with his electoral promises. And guess what, even at home too.

But until then, Obama cannot do much more. Just hope the next one he chooses won’t resign a week after.

Oh, by the way, I didn’t forget the problems with Russia. It is just that they are at the moment too busy with another poll. Important, yes, but not that way.

PS. Results of the World Press Photo contest and the winning photo, by Anthony Suau.

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